238 Results Found

Mathematical modeling has served as an epidemiological tool to enhance the modeling efforts of the social and economic impacts of the pandemic. This article reviews epidemiological network models, which are conceived as a flexible way of representing...

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been causing negative impacts on various sectors in Sri Lanka, as a result of the public health interventions that the government had to implement in order to reduce the spread of the disease. Equivalent work c...

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine elicitin...

Currently, epidemiological models can not only be found in epidemiology but also in other research disciplines. However, an interdisciplinary perspective that highlights the commonalities of epidemiological models across disciplines is missing. The g...

This study explores Mpox transmission dynamics using a mathematical and data-driven epidemiological model that incorporates two viral strains, Clade I and Clade II. The model includes transmission pathways between humans and mammals and divides the h...

Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a crucial role in modern healthcare by enhancing disease modeling and outbreak prediction. In this study, we develop an epidemiological model for the Marburg virus, integrating vaccination and treatment strategies w...

As of 27 March 2020, 199 countries and territories and one international conveyance are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the same date, Italy represents the third country worldwide in total number of cases and the first one in total number of...

This study presents an extended approach to compartmental modeling of infectious disease spread, focusing on regional heterogeneity within affected areas. Using classical SIS, SIR, and SEIR frameworks, we simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 across two...

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of tuberculosis and HIV co-infection that specifies for Russian Federation regions, based on mass balance law and described by eight ordinary differential equations. A sensitivity-based identifiab...

Motivation: We aim to study the boundary stability and persistence of positive odes in mathematical epidemiology models by importing structural tools from chemical reaction networks. This is largely a review work, which attempts to congregate the fie...

In the past few years, the world has suffered from an untreated infectious epidemic disease (COVID-19), caused by the so-called coronavirus, which was regarded as one of the most dangerous and viral infections. From this point of view, the major obje...

This paper presents a generalized epidemic modeling framework based on g-tempered Caputo fractional derivatives with discrete time delays. The proposed approach incorporates nonlocal memory effects, nonlinear temporal scaling, and delayed epidemiolog...

Tuberculosis remains a major global health challenge, particularly because of the emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), which is resistant to key first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. This study develops a deterministic two-strain tub...

The phenomenon of drug epidemics has been a global issue in the past decades, causing enormous damages to the physical and mental health of drug users and social well-being. Despite great efforts to curb drug epidemics at the governmental or social l...

There have been considerable losses in terms of human and economic resources due to the current coronavirus pandemic. This work, which contributes to the prevention and control of COVID-19, proposes a novel modified epidemiological model that predict...

The review is devoted to an analysis of mathematical models used for describing epidemic processes. Our main focus is on the models that are based on partial differential equations (PDEs), especially those that were developed and used for the COVID-1...

This study forecasts Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination impact in two countries at different epidemic phases, the United States (US) and China. We assessed the impact of both a vaccine that prevents infection (VE_S of 95%) and a vaccine t...

Background/Objectives: Cholera remains a major public health problem, particularly in regions with limited access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Traditional compartmental models may underrepresent adaptive human behavioral responses during ou...

The following case study aims to provide a broad overview of the initial Australian epidemiological situation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. We provide a case presentation of Australia’s current demographic characteristic...

Background: Monkeypox (Mpox) is a re-emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Transmission occurs primarily through direct contact with lesions or contaminated materials, with sexual transmission playing a significant role in r...

The monkeypox virus (MPXV) has caused an unusual epidemiological scenario—an epidemic within a pandemic (COVID-19). Despite the inherent evolutionary and adaptive capacity of poxviruses, one of the potential triggers for the emergence of this e...

In this study, we develop and analyze an extended SEIR-type compartmental model that incorporates vaccination and treatment to describe the dynamics of acute respiratory infection transmission. The model subdivides the infectious population into seve...

COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 and has been declared a worldwide pandemic by the World Health Organization due to its rapid spread. Since the first case was identified in Wuhan, China, the battle against this deadly disease started and ha...

Persistence, coexistence, competitive exclusion, and global asymptotic stability (GAS) are closely related problems in mathematical epidemiology that are often treated by model-specific arguments. We develop a unified approach to GAS based on Perron&...

Given the present pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 virus, the authors tried fitting existing models for the daily loss of lives. Based on data reported by Worldometers on the initial stages (first w...

In this paper, we present an age-structured SEIR model that uses contact patterns to reflect the physical distance measures implemented in Portugal to control the COVID-19 pandemic. By using these matrices and proper estimates for the parameters in t...

In this article, we analyze the spread of information on social media (Twitter) and purpose a strategy based on epidemiological models. It is well known that social media represent a strong tool to spread news and, in particular, fake news, due to th...

As digitalization and artificial intelligence advance, cybersecurity threats intensify, making malware—a type of software installed without authorization to harm users—an increasingly urgent concern. Due to malware’s social and econ...

The current pandemic is a great challenge for several research areas. In addition to virology research, mathematical models and simulations can be a valuable contribution to the understanding of the dynamics of the pandemic and can give recommendatio...

The main goal of this work is to propose a novel compartmental SEA (Susceptible–Exposed–Attacked) model to simulate malware spreading on an IoT (Internet of Things) network. This is a deterministic and individual-based model, whose main n...

Accurate, efficient, and explainable modeling of the dynamics of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) remains, in many aspects, a significant challenge. While compartmental models such as SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Recovered) remain widely...

The outbreak of pneumonia originating in Wuhan, China, has generated 24,500 confirmed cases, including 492 deaths, as of 5 February 2020. The virus (2019-nCoV) has spread elsewhere in China and to 24 countries, including South Korea, Thailand, Japan...

Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen that is capable of causing severe outbreaks of disease in the nursery. Demographic parameters such as host recruitment rates can have profound effects on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and, thu...

Despite the risk of emerging drug resistance that occurs with the frequent use of antimicrobial agents, targeted and prophylactic antibiotics have been considered crucial to opportunistic infection management among the HIV/AIDS-immunocompromised. As...

Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties...

A surge in hospital admissions was observed in Japan in late March 2020, and the incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) temporarily reduced from March to May as a result of the closure of host and hostess clubs, shortening the opening hours of b...

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF....

Some tree species respond to disease by producing basal sprouts from the base and root system of a dying tree, which can alter disease dynamics by altering demography. In the case of many lethal, airborne tree diseases, the production of basal sprout...

Epidemiology is the science of how disease develops in populations, with applications in human, animal and plant diseases. For plant diseases, epidemiology has developed as a quantitative science with the aims of describing, understanding and predict...

Estimation of the effective reproduction number, R(t), of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in real-time is a continuing challenge. R(t) reflects the epidemic dynamics based on readily available illness onset data, and is useful for the planning and imp...

Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies...

Recently, a continuous-time compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was presented with Portugal as case study, from 2 March to 4 May 2020, and the local stability of the Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE...

In this paper, we present a new result that allows for studying the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point when the basic reproduction number is less than 1, in the fractional calculus context. The method only involves basic linear al...

Four months into the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, only 10.7% of the Lebanese population have received at least one dose, raising serious concerns over the speed of vaccine roll-out and its impact in the event of a future surge. Using mathematical...

A global response to the rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is imperative in order to reduce mortality and morbidity as well as preventing a country’s health system from collapse. Singapore showed exceptional leadersh...

Understanding the amount of virus shed at the flock level by birds infected with low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises....

Hepatitis E is considered an emerging foodborne disease in Europe. Several types of foods are implicated in the transmission of the hepatitis E virus (HEV) to humans, in particular, pork and wild boar products. We developed a parametric stochastic mo...

In this paper, the author proposes a new SEIRS model that generalizes several classical deterministic epidemic models (e.g., SIR and SIS and SEIR and SEIRS) involving the relationships between the susceptible S, exposed E, infected I, and recovered R...

While contact tracing and case isolation are considered as the first choice of interventions against a smallpox bioterrorist event, their effectiveness under vaccination is questioned, because not only susceptibility of host and infectiousness of cas...

In the present article, we research the existence of the positive periodic solutions for a mathematical model that describes the propagation dynamics of a pathogen living within a vector population over a plant population. We propose a generalized co...