Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains

Bonney, Peter J.; Malladi, Sasidhar; Ssematimba, Amos; St. Charles, Kaitlyn M.; Walz, Emily; Culhane, Marie R.; Halvorson, David A.; Cardona, Carol J.

doi:10.3390/v13122509

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Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains

Peter J. Bonney

^1,*

Sasidhar Malladi

¹,

Amos Ssematimba

^1,2,

Kaitlyn M. St. Charles

¹,

¹ and

Secure Food Systems Team, Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Gulu University, Gulu P.O. Box 166, Uganda

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editors: Samantha Lycett and Paul Digard

Viruses 2021, 13(12), 2509; https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509

Received: 10 November 2021 / Revised: 9 December 2021 / Accepted: 10 December 2021 / Published: 14 December 2021

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evolution and Epidemiology of Influenza Virus)

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Abstract

Understanding the amount of virus shed at the flock level by birds infected with low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) over time can help inform the type and timing of activities performed in response to a confirmed LPAIV-positive premises. To this end, we developed a mathematical model which allows us to estimate viral shedding by 10,000 turkey toms raised in commercial turkey production in the United States, and infected by H7 LPAIV strains. We simulated the amount of virus shed orally and from the cloaca over time, as well as the amount of virus in manure. In addition, we simulated the threshold cycle value (Ct) of pooled oropharyngeal swabs from birds in the infected flock tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The simulation model predicted that little to no shedding would occur once the highest threshold of seroconversion was reached. Substantial amounts of virus in manure (median

1.5 \times 10^{8}

and

5.8 \times 10^{9}

; 50% egg infectious dose) were predicted at the peak. Lastly, the model results suggested that higher Ct values, indicating less viral shedding, are more likely to be observed later in the infection process as the flock approaches recovery. View Full-Text

Keywords: avian influenza; epidemiology; mathematical modeling; outbreak management; poultry

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MDPI and ACS Style

Bonney, P.J.; Malladi, S.; Ssematimba, A.; St. Charles, K.M.; Walz, E.; Culhane, M.R.; Halvorson, D.A.; Cardona, C.J. Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains. Viruses 2021, 13, 2509. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509

AMA Style

Bonney PJ, Malladi S, Ssematimba A, St. Charles KM, Walz E, Culhane MR, Halvorson DA, Cardona CJ. Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains. Viruses. 2021; 13(12):2509. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bonney, Peter J., Sasidhar Malladi, Amos Ssematimba, Kaitlyn M. St. Charles, Emily Walz, Marie R. Culhane, David A. Halvorson, and Carol J. Cardona. 2021. "Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains" Viruses 13, no. 12: 2509. https://doi.org/10.3390/v13122509

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Simulated Flock-Level Shedding Characteristics of Turkeys in Ten Thousand Bird Houses Infected with H7 Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Strains

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