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Open AccessArticle

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

1
Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation—Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
2
World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Disease Epidemiology Analytics on HIV/AIDS, Sexually Transmitted Infections, and Viral Hepatitis, Weill Cornell Medicine–Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation—Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar
3
Department of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, NY 10022, USA
4
Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar
5
Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut 11-0236, Lebanon
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to the work.
Vaccines 2020, 8(4), 668; https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8040668
Received: 4 October 2020 / Revised: 31 October 2020 / Accepted: 5 November 2020 / Published: 9 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Vaccines against Infectious Diseases)
This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VES) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VES <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VES of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VES ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; coronavirus; epidemiology; vaccine; mathematical model SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; coronavirus; epidemiology; vaccine; mathematical model
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MDPI and ACS Style

Makhoul, M.; Ayoub, H.H.; Chemaitelly, H.; Seedat, S.; Mumtaz, G.R.; Al-Omari, S.; Abu-Raddad, L.J. Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses. Vaccines 2020, 8, 668. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8040668

AMA Style

Makhoul M, Ayoub HH, Chemaitelly H, Seedat S, Mumtaz GR, Al-Omari S, Abu-Raddad LJ. Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses. Vaccines. 2020; 8(4):668. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8040668

Chicago/Turabian Style

Makhoul, Monia; Ayoub, Houssein H.; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Seedat, Shaheen; Mumtaz, Ghina R.; Al-Omari, Sarah; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. 2020. "Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses" Vaccines 8, no. 4: 668. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8040668

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