Search Results (654)

In this paper, we explore using the Harrow–Hassidim–Lloyd (HHL) algorithm to address scientific and engineering problems through quantum computing, utilizing the NWQSim simulation package on a high-performance computing platform. Focusing on domains such as power-grid management and climate projection, we demonstrate the correlations of the accuracy of quantum phase estimation, along with various properties of coefficient matrices, on the final solution and quantum resource cost in iterative and non-iterative numerical methods such as the Newton–Raphson method and finite difference method, as well as their impacts on quantum error correction costs using the Microsoft Azure Quantum resource estimator. We summarize the exponential resource cost from quantum phase estimation before and after quantum error correction and illustrate a potential way to reduce the demands on physical qubits. This work lays down a preliminary step for future investigations, urging a closer examination of quantum algorithms’ scalability and efficiency in domain applications. Full article

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

Greenhouses are applied to mitigate the deleterious effects of inclement weather, which facilitates the optimal growth and development of the crops. South China has a climate characterized by high temperature and high humidity, and the temperature and relative humidity inside a Venlo greenhouse are higher than those in the atmosphere. In this paper, the numerical model of the flow distribution of a Venlo greenhouse in South China was established using the CFD method, which mainly applied the DO model, the k-e turbulence model, and the porous medium model. The porous resistance characteristics of tomatoes were obtained through experimental research. The inertial resistances of tomato plants in the x, y, and z directions were 80,000,000, 18,000,000, and 120,000,000, respectively; the viscous resistances of tomato plants in the x, y, and z directions were 0.43, 0.60, and 0.63, respectively. The porosity of tomato plants was 0.996. The average difference between the temperature of the established numerical model and the experimental temperature was less than 0.11 °C, and the average relative error was 2.72%. This research also studied the effects of five management and structure parameters on the velocity and temperature distribution in a greenhouse. The optimal inlet velocity is 1.32 m/s, with the COF of velocity and temperature being 9.23% and 1.18%, respectively. The optimal skylight opening is 1.76 m, with the COF of velocity and temperature being 10.68% and 0.88%, respectively. The optimal side window opening is 0.67 m, with the COF of velocity and temperature being 9.25% and 2.10%, respectively. The optimal side window height is 1.18 m, with the COF of velocity and temperature being 9.50% and 1.33%, respectively. The optimal planting interval is 1.40 m, with the COF of velocity and temperature being 15.29% and 0.20%, respectively. The results provide a reference for the design and management of Venlo greenhouses in South China. Full article

We present a model that integrates the mapping of the phenology and climatic suitability for the spotted lanternfly (SLF), Lycorma delicatula (White, 1845) (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae), to provide guidance on when and where to conduct surveillance and management of this highly invasive pest. The model was designed for use in the Degree-Day, Establishment Risk, and Phenological Event Maps (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help to detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats. We validated the model using presence records and phenological observations derived from monitoring studies and the iNaturalist database. The model performed well, with more than >99.9% of the presence records included in the potential distribution for North America, a large proportion of the iNaturalist observations correctly predicted, and a low error rate for dates of the first appearance of adults. Cold and heat stresses were insufficient to exclude the SLF from most areas of the conterminous United States (CONUS), but an inability for the pest to complete its life cycle in cold areas may hinder establishment. The appearance of adults occurred several months earlier in warmer regions of North America and Europe, which suggests that host plants in these areas may experience stronger feeding pressure. The near-real-time forecasts produced by the model are available at USPest.org and the USA National Phenology Network to support decision making for the CONUS. Forecasts of egg hatch and the appearance of adults are particularly relevant for surveillance to prevent new establishments and for managing existing populations. Full article

Central Asia (CA) faces growing Water–Energy–Food (WEF) Nexus challenges, due to its complex transboundary water management, legacy Soviet-era water infrastructure, and increasing climate and socio-economic pressures. This study presents the development of a System Dynamics Model (SDM) to evaluate WEF interdependencies across the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), including the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins and their sub-basins. Different downscaling strategies based on the area, population, or land use have been applied to process open-access databases at the national level in order to match the scope of the study. Climate and socio-economic assumptions were introduced through the integration of already defined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting SDM incorporates more than 500 variables interacting through mathematical relationships to generate comprehensive outputs to understand the WEF Nexus concerns. The SDM was successfully calibrated and validated across three key dimensions of the WEF Nexus: final water discharge to the Aral Sea (Mean Absolute Error, MAE, <5%), energy balance (MAE = 4.6%), and agricultural water demand (basin-wide MAE = 1.2%). The results underscore the human-driven variability of inflows to the Aral Sea and highlight the critical importance of transboundary coordination to enhance future resilience. Full article

Intensive energy consumption in the building sector remains one of the primary contributors to climate change and global warming. Within Renewable Energy Communities (RECs), improving energy management is essential for promoting sustainability and reducing environmental impact. Accurate forecasting of energy consumption at the community level is a key tool in this effort. Traditionally, engineering-based methods grounded in thermodynamic principles have been employed, offering high accuracy under controlled conditions. However, their reliance on exhaustive building-level data and high computational costs limits their scalability in dynamic REC settings. In contrast, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven methods provide flexible and scalable alternatives by learning patterns from historical consumption and environmental data. This study investigates three Machine Learning (ML) models, Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and CatBoost, and one Deep Learning (DL) model, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), to forecast community electricity consumption using real smart meter data and local meteorological variables. The study focuses on a REC in Loureiro, Portugal, consisting of 172 residential users from whom 16 months of 15 min interval electricity consumption data were collected. Temporal features (hour of the day, day of the week, month) were combined with lag-based usage patterns, including features representing energy consumption at the corresponding time in the previous hour and on the previous day, to enhance model accuracy by leveraging short-term dependencies and daily repetition in usage behavior. Models were evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Coefficient of Determination $R^2$. Among all models, CatBoost achieved the best performance, with an MSE of 0.1262, MAPE of 4.77%, and an $R^2$ of 0.9018. These results highlight the potential of ensemble learning approaches for improving energy demand forecasting in RECs, supporting smarter energy management and contributing to energy and environmental performance. Full article

Accurate rainfall quantile estimation is critical for urban flood management, particularly given the escalating climate change impacts. This study comprehensively compared at-site frequency analysis and regional frequency analysis for sub-hourly rainfall quantile estimation, using data from 27 sites across Seoul. The analysis focused on Seoul’s disaster prevention framework (30-year and 100-year return periods). Employing L-moment statistics and Monte Carlo simulations, the rainfall quantiles were estimated, the methodological performance was evaluated, and Seoul’s current disaster prevention standards were assessed. The analysis revealed significant spatio-temporal variability in Seoul’s precipitation, causing considerable uncertainty in individual site estimates. A performance evaluation, including the relative root mean square error and confidence interval, consistently showed regional frequency analysis superiority over at-site frequency analysis. While at-site frequency analysis demonstrated better performance only for short return periods (e.g., 2 years), regional frequency analysis exhibited a substantially lower relative root mean square error and significantly narrower confidence intervals for larger return periods (e.g., 10, 30, 100 years). This methodology reduced the average 95% confidence interval width by a factor of approximately 2.7 (26.98 mm versus 73.99 mm). This enhanced reliability stems from the information-pooling capabilities of regional frequency analysis, mitigating uncertainties due to limited record lengths and localized variabilities. Critically, regionally derived 100-year rainfall estimates consistently exceeded Seoul’s 100 mm disaster prevention threshold across most areas, suggesting that the current infrastructure may be substantially under-designed. The use of minute-scale data underscored its necessity for urban hydrological modeling, highlighting the inadequacy of conventional daily rainfall analyses. Full article

Understanding and forecasting energy consumption patterns is crucial for improving energy efficiency and human well-being, especially in diverse infrastructures like Spain. This research addresses a significant gap in energy demand forecasting across three building types by comparing six machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forest, XGBoost, Radial Basis Function Network, Autoencoder, and Decision Trees. The primary aim is to identify the most effective model for predicting energy consumption based on historical data, contributing to the relationship between energy systems and urban well-being. The study emphasizes challenges in energy use and advocates for sustainable management practices. By forecasting energy demand over the next three years using linear regression, it provides actionable insights for energy providers, enhancing resilience in urban environments impacted by climate change. The findings deepen our understanding of energy dynamics across various building types and promote a sustainable energy future. Stakeholders will receive targeted recommendations for aligning energy production with consumption trends while meeting environmental responsibilities. Model performance is rigorously evaluated using metrics like Squared Mean Root Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R²), ensuring robust analysis. Training times for models in the LUCIA building ranged from 2 to 19 s, with the Decision Tree model showing the shortest times, highlighting the need to balance computational efficiency with model performance. Full article

This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario were used to assess the uncertainties across these models. The findings indicate that RWU in Republic of Korea (ROK) is closely linked to temperature changes, with significant increases projected in the distant future (F3), especially during summer. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, RWU is expected to increase by up to 10.3% by the late 21st century (2081–2100) compared to the historical baseline. The model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11,400 m³/month, demonstrating reliable predictive performance. Unlike conventional deep learning models, the BNN provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty bounds, enhancing its suitability for climate-sensitive resource planning. This study also projects inflows to the Paldang Dam, revealing an overall increase in future water availability. However, winter water security may decline due to decreased inflow and minimal changes in RWU. This study suggests enhancing summer precipitation storage while considering downstream flood risks. Demand management strategies are recommended for addressing future winter water security challenges. This research highlights the importance of projecting RWU under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for strategic water resource management in ROK. Full article

Understanding the price dynamics of oil futures is crucial for advancing green finance strategies and supporting sustainable energy transitions. This study investigates the macroeconomic and energy market determinants of oil futures prices through Granger causality, cointegration analysis, and the error correction model, using daily data. It focuses on the influence of economic development levels, exchange rate fluctuations, and inter-energy price linkages. The empirical findings indicate that (1) oil futures prices exhibit strong correlations with other energy prices, macroeconomic factors, and exchange rate variables; (2) economic development significantly affects oil futures prices, while exchange rate impacts are statistically insignificant based on the daily data analyzed; (3) there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between oil futures prices and variables representing economic activity, exchange rates, and energy market trends; (4) oil futures prices exhibit significant short-term dynamics while adjusting steadily toward a long-run equilibrium driven by macroeconomic and energy market fundamentals. By enhancing the accuracy of oil futures price forecasting, this study offers practical insights for managing financial risks associated with fossil energy markets and contributes to the formulation of low-carbon investment strategies. The findings provide a valuable reference for integrating energy pricing models into sustainable finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions. Full article

Accurate precipitation forecasting remains a critical challenge due to the nonlinear and multifactorial nature of rainfall dynamics. This is particularly important in arid regions like Tamanghasset, where precipitation is the primary driver of agricultural viability and water resource management. This study evaluates the performance of several time series models for monthly rainfall prediction, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing State Space Model (ETS), Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess with ETS (STL-ETS), Trigonometric Box–Cox transform with ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and neural network autoregressive (NNAR) models. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1953 to 2020 were used to train and test the models, with lagged observations serving as input features. Among the approaches considered, the NNAR model exhibited superior performance, as indicated by uncorrelated residuals and enhanced forecast accuracy. This suggests that NNAR effectively captures the nonlinear temporal patterns inherent in the precipitation series. Based on the best-performing model, rainfall was projected for the year 2021, providing actionable insights for regional hydrological and agricultural planning. The results highlight the relevance of neural network-based time series models for climate forecasting in data-scarce, climate-sensitive regions. Full article

Understanding the impacts of the spatial non-stationarity of environmental factors on surface soil moisture (SSM) in different seasons is crucial for effective environmental management. Yet, our knowledge of this phenomenon remains limited. This study introduces an interpretable machine learning framework that combines the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method with two-step clustering to unravel the spatial drivers of SSM across Iran. Due to the limited availability of in situ SSM data, the performance of three global SSM datasets—SMAP, MERRA-2, and CFSv2—from 2015 to 2023 was evaluated using agrometeorological stations. SMAP outperformed the others, showing the highest median correlation and the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Using SMAP, we estimated SSM across 609 catchments employing the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. The RF model yielded R² values of 0.89, 0.83, 0.70, and 0.75 for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively, with corresponding RMSE values of 0.076, 0.081, 0.098, and 0.061 m³/m³. SHAP analysis revealed that climatic factors primarily drive SSM in winter and autumn, while vegetation and soil characteristics are more influential in spring and summer. The clustering results showed that Iran’s catchments can be grouped into five categories based on the SHAP method coefficients, highlighting regional differences in SSM controls. Full article

This study investigates the systemic tail dependence among biodiversity, clean energy, and financial transition assets using a novel partial correlation-based network approach. Analyzing eleven indices from 2019 to 2025, we capture dynamic connectedness across normal and extreme market conditions. Empirical findings indicate that clean energy assets form a central hub of connectedness, while biodiversity-linked instruments increasingly influence systemic behavior under stress. Events such as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the Russia–Ukraine war, and El Niño intensify these dynamics. Compared to the traditional Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (GFEVD) framework, our approach better detects short-term shocks, offering actionable insights for climate-aware investment and risk management. Full article

To combat the catastrophic effects of climate change, the usage of renewable energy sources (RESs) has increased dramatically in recent years. The main drivers of the increase in solar photovoltaic (PV) system grid integrations in recent years have been lowering energy costs and pollution. Active and reactive powers are controlled by a proportional–integral controller, whereas energy storage batteries improve the quality of energy by storing both current and voltage, which have an impact on steady-state error. Since traditional controllers are unable to maximize the energy output of solar systems, artificial intelligence (AI) is essential for enhancing the energy generation of PV systems under a variety of climatic conditions. Nevertheless, variations in the weather can have an impact on how well photovoltaic systems function. This paper presents an intelligent power management controller (IPMC) for obtaining power management with load and electric-vehicle applications. The architecture combines the solar PV, battery with electric-vehicle load, and grid system. Initially, the PV architecture is utilized to generate power from the irradiance. The generated power is utilized to compensate for the required load demand on the grid side. The remaining PV power generated is utilized to charge the batteries of electric vehicles. The power management of the PV is obtained by considering the proposed control strategy. The power management controller is a combination of the twisting sliding-mode controller (TSMC) and Modified Pufferfish Optimization Algorithm (MPOA). The proposed method is implemented, and the application results are matched with the Mountain Gazelle Optimizer (MSO) and Beluga Whale Optimization (BWO) Algorithm by evaluating the PV power output, EV power, battery-power and battery-energy utilization, grid power, and grid price to show the merits of the proposed work. Full article

The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and European Space Agency-Climate Change Initiative (ESA–CCI) soil moisture (SM) products are widely used in agricultural drought monitoring, water resource management, and climate analysis applications. However, the performance of these SM products varies significantly across regions and environmental conditions, due to in sensor characteristics, retrieval algorithms, and the lack of localized calibration. This study proposes a multi-source long short-term memory (MLSTM) for improving ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP SM products by combining in-situ SM measurements and four key auxiliary variables: precipitation (PRE), land surface temperature (LST), fractional vegetation cover (FVC), and evapotranspiration (ET). First, the in-situ measured data from four in-situ observation networks were corrected using the LSTM method to match the grid sizes of ASCAT (0.1°), ESA–CCI (0.25°), and SMAP (0.1°) SM products. The RPE, LST, FVC, and ET were used as inputs to the LSTM to obtain loss data against in-situ SM measurements. Second, the ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP SM datasets were used as inputs to the LSTM to generate loss data, which were subsequently corrected using LSTM-derived loss data based on in-situ SM measurements. When the mean squared error (MSE) loss values were minimized, the improvement for ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP products was considered the best. Finally, the improved ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP were produced and evaluated by the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and standard deviation (SD). The results showed that the RMSE values of the improved ASCAT, ESA–CCI, and SMAP products against the corrected in-situ SM data in the OZNET network were lower, i.e., 0.014 cm³/cm³, 0.019 cm³/cm³, and 0.034 cm³/cm³, respectively. Compared with the ESA–CCI and SMAP products, the ASCAT product was greatly improved, e.g., in the SNOTEL network, the Root Mean-Square Deviation (RMSD) values of 0.1049 cm³/cm³ (ASCAT) and 0.0662 cm³/cm³ (improved ASCAT). Overall, the MLSTM-based algorithm has the potential to improve the global satellite SM product. Full article