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Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 February 2024) | Viewed by 27358

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis

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Guest Editor

Applied Physics Department, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
Interests: climate variability; climate change; seasonal prediction; decadal prediction; climate change projections; downscaling techniques; regional climate models; convection-permitting models; streamflow variability; drought
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Dr. Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda

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Guest Editor

Applied Physics Department, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
Interests: climate change; regional climate models; climate projections; convection-permitting models; climate variability; hydrological models; flood hazards; drought; land–atmosphere feedback; aridity
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Water is essential for human life and many activities, including agriculture, industry, and power generation. One of the major impacts of global warming is likely to be on hydrology and water resources, because climate change can alter the balance between the different components of the hydrological cycle. However, despite the developments in recent decades, research on the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources still needs improvement. The mechanisms of atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle, as well as the internal relationships between them, are not fully understood, and the effects of climate change on the hydrologic cycle are associated with large uncertainty in both climate projections and hydrologic modelling approaches.

The theme of this Special Issue is “Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources”, focusing on the impact of climate change on regional hydrological resources, further improving simulation accuracy, and improving the research system related to the impact of climate change on water resources. High-quality research papers on observed and projected changes during the 21st century in the different components of the hydrological cycle affecting water resources (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, etc.) are welcome from different spatial scales and methodological approaches (downscaling methods, hydrological modelling, etc.). Papers including the estimation of runoff, extreme events (floods and droughts) and evapotranspiration (ET), along with some of the miscellaneous topics related to hydrology (e.g., the coupling between water cycle components) or impacts on topics such as hydropower or ecosystems, among others, are also of interest.

Dr. Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis
Dr. Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda
Guest Editors

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Keywords

climate change
hydrology
water resources
hydrological cycle
precipitation
evapotranspiration
streamflow
runoff
soil moisture
drought
floods
downscaling
regional climate models
convection-permitting models
hydrological models
water management

Published Papers (13 papers)

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Research

27 pages, 4758 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Novel Approaches for the Empirical Assessment of Evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean Region

by Ali Uzunlar and Muhammet Omer Dis

Water 2024, 16(3), 507; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030507 - 5 Feb 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 974

Abstract

The hydrological cycle should be scrutinized and investigated under recent climate change scenarios to ensure global water management and to increase its utilization. Although the FAO proposed the use of the Penman–Monteith (PM) equation worldwide to predict evapotranspiration (ET), which is one of the most crucial components of the hydrological cycle, its complexity and time-consuming nature, have led researchers to examine alternative methods. In this study, the performances of numerous temperature-driven ET methods were examined relative to the PM using daily climatic parameters from central stations in 11 districts of the Kahramanmaras province. Owing to its geographical location and other influencing factors, the city has a degraded Mediterranean climate with varying elevation gradients, while its meteorological patterns (i.e., temperature and precipitation) deviate from those of the main Mediterranean climate. A separate evaluation was performed via ten different statistical metrics, and spatiotemporal ET variability was reported for the districts. This study revealed that factors such as altitude, terrain features, slope, aspect geography, solar radiation, and climatic conditions significantly impact capturing reference values, in addition to temperature. Moreover, an assessment was conducted in the region to evaluate the effect of modified ET formulae on simulations. It can be drawn as a general conclusion that the Hargreaves–Samani and modified Blaney–Criddle techniques can be utilized as alternatives to PM in estimating ET, while the Schendel method exhibited the lowest performance throughout Kahramanmaras. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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13 pages, 3591 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Water Whiplash in Mediterranean Regions of the World

by Citlalli Madrigal, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota, Wenzhao Li, Glenn Tootle and Hesham El-Askary

Water 2024, 16(3), 450; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16030450 - 30 Jan 2024

Viewed by 991

Abstract

The presence of weather and water whiplash in Mediterranean regions of the world is analyzed using historical streamflow records from 1926 to 2023, depending on the region. Streamflow from the United States (California), Italy, Australia, Chile, and South Africa is analyzed using publicly available databases. Water whiplash—or the rapid shift of wet and dry periods—are compared. Wet and dry periods are defined based on annual deviations from the historical record average, and whiplash occurs when there is an abrupt change that overcomes an accommodated deficit or surplus. Of all the stations, there are more dry years (56%) than wet years (44%) in these regions, along with similarities in the variances and shifts in extremes (i.e., whiplash). On average, 35% of the years were defined as water whiplash years in all countries, with the highest levels in the US (California), where 42–53% of the years were whiplash years. The influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences Chile and South Africa strongest during the first quarter of the year. This study found that smaller extreme wet periods and larger and less extreme dry periods are prevalent in Mediterranean regions. This has implications for water management as adaptation to climate change is considered. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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25 pages, 6544 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Impacts of Rainfall Characteristics and Land Use Pattern on Runoff Accumulation in the Hulu River Basin, China

by Muhammad Imran, Jingming Hou, Tian Wang, Donglai Li, Xujun Gao, Rana Shahzad Noor, Jing Jing and Muhammad Ameen

Water 2024, 16(2), 239; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16020239 - 10 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1248

Abstract

Climate change causes the river basin water cycle disorders, and rainfall characteristics frequently result in flood disasters. This study aims to simulate and assess the response behavior of basin floods under the influence of rainfall characteristics and land use changes in the Hulu River basin using a 2D hydrological and hydraulic GAST (GPU Accelerated Surface Water Flow and Transport Model). The peak flow rate and water depth during floods were examined by simulating the evolution process of basin floods and related hydraulic elements under the independent effects of various rainfall characteristics or land use and further simulating the response results of basin floods under the combined effects of rainfall characteristics and land use. The seven scenarios were set to quantify the degree of influence that land use and rainfall characteristics have on the basin flood process based on examining changes in land use and rainfall characteristics in the research area. The results from different rainfall characteristics scenarios depicted that as the rainfall return period is shorter, the peak flow rate is higher, and the peak flow rate is lower as the return period is prolonged. Under different rainfall characteristics, the peak flow rate in scenario R8 is 41.30%, 40.00%, and 34.51% higher than the uniform distribution of rainfall, while water depth is decreased by 0.55%, increased by 4.96% and 2.92% as compared to the uniform distribution of rainfall. While under different land use scenarios, it is observed that the change in land use has increased 2.7% in cultivated land and 1.1% in woodland. In addition, the interactive effect of different rainfall characteristics and land use it can be seen that the scenario with the greatest reduction in flood risk due to rainfall characteristics and land use is RL2-4, representing a 12.55% decrease in peak flow and a 37.69% decrease in peak water depth. In this scenario, the rainfall is heavier in the southeast and northwest regions and lighter in the northeast and southwest regions. The land use type is characterized by reforestation and the return of cultivated land to forests. The changes in rainfall distribution and the increase in grassland contribute to the decrease in flood threat. Future research in the erodible parts of the Hulu River basin, planning for water resources, and soil and water conservation can all benefit from the study’s conclusions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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15 pages, 9949 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Laboratory Study of the Role of Nature-Based Solutions in Improving Flash Flooding Resilience in Hilly Terrains

by Shees Ur Rehman, Afzal Ahmed, Gordon Gilja, Manousos Valyrakis, Abdul Razzaq Ghumman, Ghufran Ahmed Pasha and Rashid Farooq

Water 2024, 16(1), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16010124 - 29 Dec 2023

Viewed by 941

Abstract

Nature-based solutions (NBSs) always provide optimal opportunities for researchers and policymakers to develop sustainable and long-term solutions for mitigating the impacts of flooding. Computing the hydrological process in hilly areas is complex compared to plain areas. This study used a laboratory-scaled hillslope model to study rainfall-runoff responses considering the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in hill torrents creating flash floods. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of nature-based solutions on time-to-peak for flash flooding events on hilly terrains under different scenarios. Many factors decide the peak of runoff generation due to rainfall, like land use conditions, e.g., soil porosity, vegetation cover, rainfall intensity, and terrain slope. To reduce these complexities, the model was designed with thermopore sheets made of impermeable material. A hillslope model using NBS was designed to evaluate flood hydrograph attenuation to minimize the peak discharge (Qp) and increase time-to-peak (Tp) under varying rainfall, land cover, and drainage channel slope conditions. A rainfall simulator was used to analyze the formation of hydrographs for different conditions, e.g., from barren to vegetation under three different slopes (S0, S1, S2) and three rainfall intensities (P1, P2, P3). Vegetation conditions used were no vegetation, rigid vegetation, flexible vegetation, and the combination of both rigid and flexible vegetation. The purpose of using all these conditions was to determine their mitigation effects on flash flooding. This experimental analysis shows that the most suitable case to attenuate a flood hydrograph was the mixed vegetation condition, which can reduce the peak discharge by 27% to 39% under different channel slopes. The mixed vegetation condition showed an increase of 49% in time-to-peak (Tp) compared to the no vegetation condition. Additionally, under P1 rainfall and a bed slope of 0°, it reduced the peak discharge by up to 35% in the simulated flood and effectively minimized its potentially destructive impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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19 pages, 4117 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Variations in Actual Evapotranspiration Based on LPJ Model and Its Driving Mechanism in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

by Xuelei Zhang, Gaopeng Wang and Hejia Wang

Water 2023, 15(23), 4105; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15234105 - 27 Nov 2023

Viewed by 903

Abstract

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the ecohydrological processes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) present new evolution characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales. Research on the evolution and driving mechanism of key ecohydrological element in the TGRA under the changing environment has important theoretical and practical values for correctly understanding the ecohydrological situation in the reservoir area and guiding the coordinated development of water and soil resources. In this study, the LPJ (Lund–Potsdam–Jena) model was used to simulate and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in evapotranspiration (AET) from 1981 to 2020. Sen’s slope and sensitivity analysis methods were used to quantify individual contributions of climate and human factors to changes in AET in different periods. The results indicate the following: (1) The simulation accuracy of the LPJ model for AET in the TGRA was high, with a certainty coefficient (R2), Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), and mean relative error (MRE) of 0.89, 0.76, and 4.32%, respectively. (2) The multiyear average AET was 650.71 mm and increased at a rate of 21.63 mm/10a from 1981 to 2020. The annual distribution of AET showed a unimodal seasonal variation trend. The peak value occurred in July, reaching 113.02 mm, and the valley value occurred in January and December, less than 13 mm. (3) AET increased by 5.60% and 6.28% before and after impoundment, respectively. The contribution rate of human activities increased significantly from −3.75% before impoundment to 26.95% after impoundment, and the contribution ratios of climate change were 89.39% and 73.09%, respectively, during these two periods. From 1981 to 2020, AET increased by 5.28%, in which the contribution ratios of climate and human factors were 89.39% and 10.61%, respectively. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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22 pages, 3205 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Effects on Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) Curves for the Lake Erie Coast Using Various Climate Models

by Samir Mainali and Suresh Sharma

Water 2023, 15(23), 4063; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15234063 - 23 Nov 2023

Viewed by 1095

Abstract

This study delved into the analysis of hourly observed as well as future precipitation data in the towns of Willoughby and Buffalo on the Lake Erie Coast to examine the variations in IDF relationships over the 21st century. Several regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 were used. The study evaluated three RCMs with historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios for each CMIP5 and three GCMs with historical and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios for each CMIP6. The results suggested that the town of Willoughby would experience an increase of 9–46%, whereas Buffalo would experience an upsurge of 6–140% in the hourly precipitation intensity under the worst-case scenarios of RCP8.5 for CMIP5 and SSP585 for CMIP6. This increase is expected to occur in both the near (2020–2059) and far future (2060–2099), with a return period as low as 2 years and as high as 100 years when compared to the baseline period (1980–2019). The analysis indicated an increased range of 9–39% in the near future and 20–55% in the far future for Willoughby, while the Buffalo region may experience an increase of 2–95% in the near future and 3–192% in the far future as compared to the baseline period. In contrast to CMIP6 SSP585 models, CMIP5 RCP8.5 models predicted rainfall with an intensity value that is up to 28% higher in the town of Willoughby, while the reverse was true for the Buffalo region. The findings of this study are expected to be helpful for the design of water resource infrastructures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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24 pages, 5474 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Advanced Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Hydrological Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Streamflow Prediction Models

by Vijendra Kumar, Naresh Kedam, Kul Vaibhav Sharma, Darshan J. Mehta and Tommaso Caloiero

Water 2023, 15(14), 2572; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15142572 - 13 Jul 2023

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 5173

Abstract

The management of water resources depends heavily on hydrological prediction, and advances in machine learning (ML) present prospects for improving predictive modelling capabilities. This study investigates the use of a variety of widely used machine learning algorithms, such as CatBoost, ElasticNet, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Lasso, Light Gradient Boosting Machine Regressor (LGBM), Linear Regression (LR), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest (RF), Ridge, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), and the Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression Model (XGBoost), to predict the river inflow of the Garudeshwar watershed, a key element in planning for flood control and water supply. The substantial engineering feature used in the study, which incorporates temporal lag and contextual data based on Indian seasons, leads it distinctiveness. The study concludes that the CatBoost method demonstrated remarkable performance across various metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and R-squared (R²) values, for both training and testing datasets. This was accomplished by an in-depth investigation and model comparison. In contrast to CatBoost, XGBoost and LGBM demonstrated a higher percentage of data points with prediction errors exceeding 35% for moderate inflow numbers above 10,000. CatBoost established itself as a reliable method for hydrological time-series modelling, easily managing both categorical and continuous variables, and thereby greatly enhancing prediction accuracy. The results of this study highlight the value and promise of widely used machine learning algorithms in hydrology and offer valuable insights for academics and industry professionals. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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22 pages, 7015 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multi-Scale Analysis of Agricultural Drought Propagation on the Iberian Peninsula Using Non-Parametric Indices

by Marco Possega, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda and Sonia Raquel Gámiz-Fortis

Water 2023, 15(11), 2032; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15112032 - 27 May 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1214

Abstract

Understanding how drought propagates from meteorological to agricultural drought requires further research into the combined effects of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and precipitation, especially through the analysis of long-term data. To this end, the present study examined a multi-year reanalysis dataset (ERA5-Land) that included numerous drought events across the Iberian Peninsula, with a specific emphasis on the 2005 episode. Through this analysis, the mechanisms underlying the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought and its features for the selected region were investigated. To identify drought episodes, various non-parametric standardized drought indices were utilized. For meteorological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed, while the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), and Standard Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Index (SPESMI) were utilized for agricultural droughts, while their ability to identify relative vegetation stress in areas affected by severe droughts was investigated using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) Anomaly provided by the Copernicus European Drought Observatory (EDO). A statistical approach based on run theory was employed to analyze several characteristics of drought propagation, such as response time scale, propagation probability, and lag time at monthly, seasonal, and six-month time scales. The retrieved response time scale was fast, about 1–2 months, and the probability of occurrence increased with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. The duration of agricultural drought was shorter than that of meteorological drought, with a delayed onset but the same term. The results obtained by multi-variate indices showed a more rapid propagation process and a tendency to identify more severe events than uni-variate indices. In general terms, agricultural indices were found to be effective in assessing vegetation stress in the Iberian Peninsula. A newly developed combined agricultural drought index was found to balance the characteristics of the other adopted indices and may be useful for future studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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15 pages, 2389 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Model for Assessing the Importance of Runoff Forecasts in Periodic Climate on Hydropower Production

by Shuang Hao, Anders Wörman, Joakim Riml and Andrea Bottacin-Busolin

Water 2023, 15(8), 1559; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15081559 - 16 Apr 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1214

Abstract

Hydropower is the largest source of renewable energy in the world and currently dominates flexible electricity production capacity. However, climate variations remain major challenges for efficient production planning, especially the annual forecasting of periodically variable inflows and their effects on electricity generation. This study presents a model that assesses the impact of forecast quality on the efficiency of hydropower operations. The model uses ensemble forecasting and stepwise linear optimisation combined with receding horizon control to simulate runoff and the operation of a cascading hydropower system. In the first application, the model framework is applied to the Dalälven River basin in Sweden. The efficiency of hydropower operations is found to depend significantly on the linkage between the representative biannual hydrologic regime and the regime actually realised in a future scenario. The forecasting error decreases when considering periodic hydroclimate fluctuations, such as the dry–wet year variability evident in the runoff in the Dalälven River, which ultimately increases production efficiency by approximately 2% (at its largest), as is shown in scenarios 1 and 2. The corresponding potential hydropower production is found to vary by 80 GWh/year. The reduction in forecasting error when considering biennial periodicity corresponds to a production efficiency improvement of about 0.33% (or 13.2 GWh/year). Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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24 pages, 4515 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Increasing Trends in Discharge Maxima of a Mediterranean River during Early Autumn

by George Varlas, Christina Papadaki, Konstantinos Stefanidis, Angeliki Mentzafou, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anastasios Papadopoulos and Elias Dimitriou

Water 2023, 15(6), 1022; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061022 - 8 Mar 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1914

Abstract

Climate change has influenced the discharge regime of rivers during the past decades. This study aims to reveal climate-induced interannual trends of average annual discharge and discharge maxima in a Mediterranean river from 1981 to 2017. To this aim, the Pinios river basin was selected as the study area because it is one of the most productive agricultural areas of Greece. Due to a lack of sufficient measurements, simulated daily discharges for three upstream sub-basins were used. The discharge trend analysis was based on a multi-faceted approach using Mann-Kendall tests, Quantile-Kendall plots, and generalized additive models (GAMs) for fitting non-linear interannual trends. The methodological approach proposed can be applied anywhere to investigate climate change effects. The results indicated that the average annual discharge in the three upstream sub-basins decreased in the 1980s, reaching a minimum in the early 1990s, and then increased from the middle 1990s to 2017, reaching approximately the discharge levels of the early 1980s. A more in-depth analysis unraveled that the discharge maxima in September were characterized by statistically significant increasing interannual trends for two of the three sub-basins. These two sub-basins are anthropogenically low affected, thus highlighting the clear impact of climate change that may have critical socioeconomic implications in the Pinios basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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22 pages, 3023 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integrated and Individual Impacts of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Flows over Birr River Watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

by Demelash Ademe Malede, Tena Alamirew and Tesfa Gebrie Andualem

Water 2023, 15(1), 166; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010166 - 31 Dec 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2681

Abstract

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change are the two major environmental factors that affect water resource planning and management at different scales. This study aims to investigate the effects of LULC and climate change patterns for a better understanding of the hydrological processes of the Birr River watershed. To examine the effects of LULC and climate change patterns on hydrology, three periods of climate data (1986–1996, 1997–2007 and 2008–2018) and three sets of LULC maps (1986, 2001 and 2018) were established. The changes in hydrological flow caused by climate and LULC changes were estimated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and indicator of hydrological alteration (IHA) method. Results showed that the SWAT model performed well during the calibration and validation period at monthly timestep, with R² and NSE values of (0.83 and 0.81) and (0.80 and 0.71), respectively. The LULC change increased surface runoff while decreasing baseflow, water yield, and evapotranspiration. This was due to increased agriculture and settlements, and a reduction in bushland, forest, and grassland. Climate change increased surface runoff and water yield while decreasing baseflow and evapotranspiration during 1996–2006. The combined effect of LULC and climate reveals increased surface runoff and a decreased trend of evapotranspiration, whereas baseflow and water yield showed inconsistency. In addition, the IHA found no statistically significant increasing trend for one-day, three-days, seven-day, and thirty-day minimum and maximum daily streamflow in the Birr River watershed. These findings will be useful to authorities, water engineers, and managers concerned with hydrology, LULC, and climate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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29 pages, 13563 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: A Hydrological Modelling Study Using EURO-CORDEX Climate Scenarios

by Elisabeth Probst and Wolfram Mauser

Water 2023, 15(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010008 - 21 Dec 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 4363

Abstract

Climate change affects the hydrological cycle of river basins and strongly impacts water resource availability. The mechanistic hydrological model PROMET was driven with an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections under the emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to analyze changes in temperature, precipitation, soil water content, plant water stress, snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff dynamics in the Danube River Basin (DRB) in the near (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100) compared to the historical reference (1971–2000). Climate change impacts remain moderate for RCP2.6 and become severe for RCP8.5, exhibiting strong year-round warming trends in the far future with wetter winters in the Upper Danube and drier summers in the Lower Danube, leading to decreasing summer soil water contents, increasing plant water stress and decreasing SWE. Discharge seasonality of the Danube River shifts toward increasing winter runoff and decreasing summer runoff, while the risk of high flows increases along the entire Danube mainstream and the risk of low flows increases along the Lower Danube River. Our results reveal increasing climate change-induced discrepancies between water surplus and demand in space and time, likely leading to intensified upstream–downstream and inter-sectoral water competition in the DRB under climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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23 pages, 3904 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Extreme Rainfall Indices in Southern Levant and Related Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

by Ala A. M. Salameh, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, María Jesús Esteban-Parra, Yolanda Castro-Díez and Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis

Water 2022, 14(23), 3799; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233799 - 22 Nov 2022

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2276

Abstract

This study aims to provide a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of the annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices over the southern Levant from 1970 to 2020. For this, temporal and spatial trends of 15 climate extreme indices based on daily precipitation at 66 stations distributed across Israel and Palestine territories were annually and seasonally analyzed through the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. The annual averages for frequency-based extreme indices exhibited decreasing trends, significantly for the Consecutive Dry Days. In contrast, the percentiles- and intensity-based extreme indices showed increasing trends, significant for extremely wet days, Max 1- and 3-day precipitation amount indices. The study area had expanding periods of extreme dry spells for spring and correspondingly shortening extreme wet spells for spring, winter and the combined winter–spring. Moreover, most of spring indices showed negative trends. Conversely, most winter indices displayed positive trends. Regarding the influence of large-scale circulation patterns, the North Sea Caspian pattern, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation, and ENSO were the primary regulators of the winter, spring, and autumn extreme indices, respectively. These findings contribute to a better understanding of extreme rainfall variability in the Levant region and could be utilized in the management of water resources, drought monitoring, and flood control. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources)

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