Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Productivity of Irrigated Rice in Malaysia Using FAO-AquaCrop Model

Water productivity (WP) is a key indicator of agricultural water management, since it affects the quantity of water used for crop yield in various management scenarios. This study evaluated the WP of irrigated rice due to a changing climate in the Northwest Selangor Rice Irrigation Scheme (NSRIS) by using field experimental data and the FAO-AquaCrop Model. Pertinent soil, water, climate, and crop data were acquired by executing a field investigation during the off-season (dry season, January–April) and main season (wet season, July–October) in 2017. The AquaCrop 6.0 model was calibrated and validated using the measured data. A Climate-smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) with an ensemble of 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) was used to downscale climate variables under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios during baseline (1976 to 2005) and future (2020 to 2099) periods. The AquaCrop model fairly predicted rice yields under field conditions with root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), prediction error (PE) and index of agreement (d) between the observed and estimated yields of 0.173, 0.157, −0.31 to 5.4 and 0.78, respectively for the off-season; and 0.167, 0.127, −5.6 to 2.3 and 0.73, respectively for the main season. It predicted a 10% decrease in actual crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) in both crop seasons in the future. The WP of rice based on total water input (WP_Irr+RF), applied irrigation (WP_Irr), and actual crop evapotranspiration (WP_ETc) will likely increase by 14–24%, 14–19%, and 17–29%, respectively under the three RCP emission scenarios in the off-season. The likely increase in WP for the corresponding base is 13–22%, 15–24%, and 14–25% in the main season. Various agronomic management options linked to WP will most likely become important in making crucial decisions to cope with the risk of impacts on climate change.