Journal Description
Climate
Climate
is a scientific, peer-reviewed, open access journal of climate science published online monthly by MDPI. The American Society of Adaptation Professionals (ASAP) is affiliated with Climate and its members receive discounts on the article processing charges.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), GeoRef, AGRIS, and many other databases.
- Journal Rank: CiteScore - Q2 (Atmospheric Science)
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision provided to authors approximately 11.8 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 2.9 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the first half of 2021).
- Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
Latest Articles
Shortwave Irradiance (1950 to 2020): Dimming, Brightening, and Urban Effects in Central Arizona?
Climate 2021, 9(9), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090137 - 28 Aug 2021
Abstract
The objective of this study was to evaluate long-term change in shortwave irradiance in central Arizona (1950–2020) and to detect apparent dimming/brightening trends that may relate to many other global studies. Global Energy Budget Archives (GEBA) monthly data were accessed for the available
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The objective of this study was to evaluate long-term change in shortwave irradiance in central Arizona (1950–2020) and to detect apparent dimming/brightening trends that may relate to many other global studies. Global Energy Budget Archives (GEBA) monthly data were accessed for the available years 1950–1994 for Phoenix, Arizona and other selected sites in the Southwest desert. Monthly data of the database called gridMET were accessed, a 4-km gridded climate data based on NLDAS-2 and available for the years 1979–2020. Three Agricultural Meteorological Network (AZMET) automated weather stations in central Arizona have observed hourly shortwave irradiance over the period 1987–present. Two of the rural AZMET sites are located north and south of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, and another site is in the center of the city of Phoenix. Using a combination of GEBA, gridMET, and AZMET data, annual time series demonstrate dimming up to late 1970s, early 1980s of −30 W/m2 (−13%), with brightening changes in the gridMET data post-1980 of +9 W/m2 (+4.6%). An urban site of the AZMET network showed significant reductions post-1987 up to 2020 of −9 W/m2 (3.8%) with no significant change at the two rural sites.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Solar Variability)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy
Climate 2021, 9(9), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090136 - 28 Aug 2021
Abstract
Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind
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Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies and Strategies in Energy)
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Orchestrating the Participation of Women Organisations in the UNFCCC Led Climate Finance Decision Making
Climate 2021, 9(9), 135; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090135 - 27 Aug 2021
Abstract
The study applies orchestration as a conceptual framework to provide early evidence on the engagement of women organisations in UNFCCC-led climate finance governance and reflect on the quality of their mobilisation. Women organisations are one of the non-state stakeholders, whose role is acknowledged
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The study applies orchestration as a conceptual framework to provide early evidence on the engagement of women organisations in UNFCCC-led climate finance governance and reflect on the quality of their mobilisation. Women organisations are one of the non-state stakeholders, whose role is acknowledged in the UNFCCC Decision 3/CP.25 for improving gender-responsiveness of climate finance. Within the UNFCCC, orchestration is used as a governance approach to enhance the mobilisation of non-state actors for facilitating the implementation of policy goals. The study utilises mixed methods including document review and interviews with key informants. The findings of the study indicate that the quality of orchestration has been low, i.e., the engagement of women organisations in the UNFCCC-led climate finance decision making has, so far, been limited. This is due to the lack of policy convergence on the purposes of orchestration, as well as the newness, and complexity of the issues at the intersection of climate finance and gender. While the concept of orchestration is intended to enhance decision making practices, the study suggests that in the case of the engagement of women organisations in the UNFCCC-led climate finance governance, orchestration is used only for symbolic purposes. To make the engagement of women organisations more meaningful, there is a need to diversify the existing orchestration practices and improve consistency in policy framing.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Anthropogenic Climate Change: Social Science Perspectives)
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Drought Early Warning in Agri-Food Systems
Climate 2021, 9(9), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090134 - 26 Aug 2021
Abstract
Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of
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Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of impacts, requiring drought early warning systems (DEWSs) that give current assessments and sufficient notice for active risk management. While most droughts are relatively slow in onset, often resulting in late responses, flash droughts are becoming more frequent, and their sudden onset poses challenging demands on DEWSs for timely communication. We examine several DEWSs at global, regional, and national scales, with a special emphasis on agri-food systems. Many of these have been successful, such as some of the responses to 2015–2017 droughts in Africa and Latin America. Successful examples show that early involvement of stakeholders, from DEWS development to implementation, is crucial. In addition, regional and global cooperation can cross-fertilize with new ideas, reduce reaction time, and raise efficiency. Broadening partnerships also includes recruiting citizen science and including seemingly subjective indigenous knowledge that can improve monitoring, data collection, and uptake of response measures. More precise and more useful DEWSs in agri-food systems will prove even more cost-effective in averting the need for emergency responses, improving global food security.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
Open AccessArticle
Extreme Ground Snow Loads in Europe from 1951 to 2100
Climate 2021, 9(9), 133; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090133 - 25 Aug 2021
Abstract
Lightweight roofs are extremely sensitive to extreme snow loads, as confirmed by recently occurring failures all over Europe. Obviously, the problem is further emphasized in warmer climatic areas, where low design values are generally foreseen for snow loads. Like other climatic actions, representative
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Lightweight roofs are extremely sensitive to extreme snow loads, as confirmed by recently occurring failures all over Europe. Obviously, the problem is further emphasized in warmer climatic areas, where low design values are generally foreseen for snow loads. Like other climatic actions, representative values of snow loads provided in structural codes are usually derived by means of suitable elaborations of extreme statistics, assuming climate stationarity over time. As climate change impacts are becoming more and more evident over time, that hypothesis is becoming controversial, so that suitable adaptation strategies aiming to define climate resilient design loads need to be implemented. In the paper, past and future trends of ground snow load in Europe are assessed for the period 1950–2100, starting from high-resolution climate simulations, recently issued by the CORDEX program. Maps of representative values of snow loads adopted for structural design, associated with an annual probability of exceedance p = 2%, are elaborated for Europe. Referring to the historical period, the obtained maps are critically compared with the current European maps based on observations. Factors of change maps, referred to subsequent time windows are presented considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission trajectories, corresponding to medium and maximum greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Factors of change are thus evaluated considering suitably selected weather stations in Switzerland and Germany, for which high quality point measurements, sufficiently extended over time are available. Focusing on the investigated weather stations, the study demonstrates that climate models can appropriately reproduce historical trends and that a decrease of characteristic values of the snow loads is expected over time. However, it must be remarked that, if on one hand the mean value of the annual maxima tends to reduce, on the other hand, its standard deviation tends to increase, locally leading to an increase of the extreme values, which should be duly considered in the evaluation of structural reliability over time.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes)
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Effects of Climate Change on the Future of Heritage Buildings: Case Study and Applied Methodology
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, , , and
Climate 2021, 9(8), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080132 - 23 Aug 2021
Abstract
Heritage buildings and the precious artworks contained therein, represent inestimable cultural and artistic evidence from the past that must be properly preserved for future generations. In the last decades, climate change has gained relevance and is becoming crucial to assess the building performance
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Heritage buildings and the precious artworks contained therein, represent inestimable cultural and artistic evidence from the past that must be properly preserved for future generations. In the last decades, climate change has gained relevance and is becoming crucial to assess the building performance under such effect to provide timely mitigation actions to preserve our cultural heritage. In this regard, this paper outlines a method that combines different experimental activities and tools to forecast possible future risks due to climate change for the conservation of the artworks and provide its application in a relevant case study in Italy, the Duomo di Milano. In detail, the suggested method consists of the monitoring of the building indoor climate to validate a simulation model, defining possible future scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, and evaluation of the future conservation risks of the main artworks. The results of the analysis carried out, show that for some artworks (e.g., stone sculptures, some organic materials, etc.), the conservation conditions will not worsen compared to the current situation, while for others (e.g., paintings, wooden objects, etc.) the risk of deterioration is expected to increase substantially. This study helps to understand how the future climate can affect the indoor environment of a huge masonry building and allow to plan targeted mitigation strategies aimed to reduce the future risks.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Long-Term Monitoring Tools for Historical Buildings and Heritage Sites in Times of Climate Change)
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Transportation Network Companies: Drivers’ Perceptions of Ride-Sharing Regarding Climate Change and Extreme Weather
Climate 2021, 9(8), 131; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080131 - 14 Aug 2021
Abstract
The transportation sector is a major factor contributing to climate change. Transportation Network Companies (TNC) may become part of solutions to reduce emissions and their drivers play an important role in doing so. This study aims to understand TNC driver’s perceptions of climate
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The transportation sector is a major factor contributing to climate change. Transportation Network Companies (TNC) may become part of solutions to reduce emissions and their drivers play an important role in doing so. This study aims to understand TNC driver’s perceptions of climate change, to understand how climate change and extreme weather affects their business and how they see their role in contributing to or mitigating climate change. We conducted an in-person survey of TNC drivers in Nevada, USA, and analyzed the derived information with descriptive statistics and content analysis. Among the 75 TNC drivers, almost half believe climate change is happening and is caused by human activities. We found TNC drivers and their business are affected by extreme weather events. Currently the drivers do not see their role in mitigating climate change and lack the awareness of green initiatives already in place by TNCs’. We conclude that TNCs could increase their climate change responsibility by providing driver incentives for cars with reduced emissions or by geographically expanding customer incentives for using sustainable TNC options such as car-pooling. By doing so, TNC may play a role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and traffic congestion; thus, contributing to improved sustainable transportation practices.
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(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Plant Species Richness in Multiyear Wet and Dry Periods in the Chihuahuan Desert
by
, , , , , and
Climate 2021, 9(8), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080130 - 13 Aug 2021
Abstract
In drylands, most studies of extreme precipitation events examine effects of individual years or short-term events, yet multiyear periods (>3 y) are expected to have larger impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to take advantage of a sequence of multiple long-term (4-y)
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In drylands, most studies of extreme precipitation events examine effects of individual years or short-term events, yet multiyear periods (>3 y) are expected to have larger impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to take advantage of a sequence of multiple long-term (4-y) periods (dry, wet, average) that occurred naturally within a 26-y time frame to examine responses of plant species richness to extreme rainfall in grasslands and shrublands of the Chihuahuan Desert. Our hypothesis was that richness would be related to rainfall amount, and similar in periods with similar amounts of rainfall. Breakpoint analyses of water-year precipitation showed five sequential periods (1993–2018): AVG1 (mean = 22 cm/y), DRY1 (mean = 18 cm/y), WET (mean = 30 cm/y), DRY2 (mean = 18 cm/y), and AVG2 (mean = 24 cm/y). Detailed analyses revealed changes in daily and seasonal metrics of precipitation over the course of the study: the amount of nongrowing season precipitation decreased since 1993, and summer growing season precipitation increased through time with a corresponding increase in frequency of extreme rainfall events. This increase in summer rainfall could explain the general loss in C3 species after the wet period at most locations through time. Total species richness in the wet period was among the highest in the five periods, with the deepest average storm depth in the summer and the fewest long duration (>45 day) dry intervals across all seasons. For other species-ecosystem combinations, two richness patterns were observed. Compared to AVG2, AVG1 had lower water-year precipitation yet more C3 species in upland grasslands, creosotebush, and mesquite shrublands, and more C4 perennial grasses in tarbush shrublands. AVG1 also had larger amounts of rainfall and more large storms in fall and spring with higher mean depths of storm and lower mean dry-day interval compared with AVG2. While DRY1 and DRY2 had the same amount of precipitation, DRY2 had more C4 species than DRY1 in creosote bush shrublands, and DRY1 had more C3 species than DRY2 in upland grasslands. Most differences in rainfall between these periods occurred in the summer. Legacy effects were observed for C3 species in upland grasslands where no significant change in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET compared with a 41% loss of species from the WET to DRY2 period. The opposite asymmetry pattern was found for C4 subdominant species in creosote bush and mesquite shrublands, where an increase in richness occurred from DRY1 to WET followed by no change in richness from WET to DRY2. Our results show that understanding plant biodiversity of Chihuahuan Desert landscapes as precipitation continues to change will require daily and seasonal metrics of rainfall within a wet-dry period paradigm, as well as a consideration of species traits (photosynthetic pathways, lifespan, morphologies). Understanding these relationships can provide insights into predicting species-level dynamics in drylands under a changing climate.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate System Uncertainty and Biodiversity Conservation)
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Local Melon and Watermelon Crop Populations to Moderate Yield Responses to Climate Change in North Africa
Climate 2021, 9(8), 129; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080129 - 12 Aug 2021
Abstract
Climate change is having a tremendous influence on world food production, with arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas especially susceptible. In these areas, locally adapted crop varieties or landraces can be used to mitigate the influence of climate change on current and future
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Climate change is having a tremendous influence on world food production, with arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas especially susceptible. In these areas, locally adapted crop varieties or landraces can be used to mitigate the influence of climate change on current and future food security challenges. The high genetic diversity within these populations allows for crops to adapt to changing environments or other stresses that influence growth and productivity. Thus, local Moroccan melon (Cucumis melo) and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus) landraces were compared to pure-line varieties in southwestern Morocco to identify their adaptability and possible ability to mitigate current and future climate change. Results indicated that the melon and watermelon landraces evaluated most likely could help mitigate yield losses from climate change in this area of Morocco. ‘AitOulyad’, a local muskmelon type, and ‘Rasmouka Ananas’ were both outstanding melon landraces with high plant vigor and yields. For watermelon, ‘AitOulyad’ had extremely high yields but had high numbers of seed in the flesh, while ‘Rasmouka’ had a lower yield, fewer seeds in the flesh, and a higher fruit consistency. This research indicates that melon and watermelon landraces in this area of southwestern Morocco with a semi-arid to arid climate will continue to play a major role in crop adaptation to maintain high productivity under a rapidly changing environment.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agroecological Approaches for Climate-Smart and Biodiverse Agriculture)
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Adaptive Heritage: Is This Creative Thinking or Abandoning Our Values?
by
and
Climate 2021, 9(8), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080128 - 11 Aug 2021
Abstract
Protected areas, such as natural World Heritage sites, RAMSAR wetlands and Biosphere Reserves, are ecosystems within landscapes. Each site meets certain criteria that allow it to qualify as a heritage or protected area. Both climate change and human influence (e.g., incursion, increased tourist
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Protected areas, such as natural World Heritage sites, RAMSAR wetlands and Biosphere Reserves, are ecosystems within landscapes. Each site meets certain criteria that allow it to qualify as a heritage or protected area. Both climate change and human influence (e.g., incursion, increased tourist visitation) are altering biophysical conditions at many such sites. As a result, conditions at many sites are falling outside the criteria for their original designation. The alternatives are to change the criteria, remove protection from the site, change site boundaries such that the larger or smaller landscape meets the criteria, or manage the existing landscape in some way that reduces the threat. This paper argues for adaptive heritage, an approach that explicitly recognizes changing conditions and societal value. We discuss the need to view heritage areas as parts of a larger landscape, and to take an adaptive approach to the management of that landscape. We offer five themes of adaptive heritage: (1) treat sites as living heritage, (2) employ innovative governance, (3) embrace transparency and accountability, (4) invest in monitoring and evaluation, and (5) manage adaptively. We offer the Australian Wet Tropics as an example where aspects of adaptive heritage currently are practiced, highlighting the tools being used. This paper offers guidance supporting decisions about natural heritage in the face of climate change and non-climatic pressures. Rather than delisting or lowering standards, we argue for adaptive approaches.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Heritage: Inclusive, Climate Sensitive Futures for Landscapes Containing Internationally-Designated Protected Areas)
Open AccessArticle
Identification of Weather Influences on Flight Punctuality Using Machine Learning Approach
Climate 2021, 9(8), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080127 - 06 Aug 2021
Abstract
One of the top long-term threats to airport resilience is extreme climate-induced conditions, which negatively affect the airport and flight operations. Recent examples, including hurricanes, storms, extreme temperatures (cold/hot), and heavy rains, have damaged airport facilities, interrupted air traffic, and caused higher operational
[...] Read more.
One of the top long-term threats to airport resilience is extreme climate-induced conditions, which negatively affect the airport and flight operations. Recent examples, including hurricanes, storms, extreme temperatures (cold/hot), and heavy rains, have damaged airport facilities, interrupted air traffic, and caused higher operational costs. With the development of civil aviation and the pre-COVID-19 surging demand for flights, the passengers’ complaints of flight delay increased, according to FoxBusiness. This study aims to discover the weather factors affecting flight punctuality and determine a high-dimensional scale of consequences stemming from weather conditions and flight operational aspects. Machine learning has been developed in correlation with the weather and statistical data for operations at Birmingham Airport as a case study. The cross-correlated datasets have been kindly provided by Birmingham Airport and the Meteorological Office. The scope and emphasis of this study is placed on the machine learning application to practical flight punctuality prediction in relation to climate conditions. Random forest, artificial neural network, support vector machine, and linear regression are used to develop predictive models. Grid-search and cross-validation are used to select the best parameters. The model can grasp the trend of flight punctuality rates well where R2 is 0.80 and the root mean square error (RMSE) is less than 15% using the model developed by random forest technique. The insights derived from this study will help Airport Authorities and the Insurance industry in predicting the scale of consequences in order to promptly enact and enable adaptative airport climate resilience plans, including air traffic rescheduling, financial resilience to climate variances and extreme weather conditions.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Disaster Risks)
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Mass Balance Sensitivity and Future Projections of Rabots Glaciär, Sweden
Climate 2021, 9(8), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080126 - 06 Aug 2021
Abstract
Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes
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Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes in climate, the sensitivity to a range of parameters is computed. Through linear regression of mass balance with temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and incoming radiation the climate sensitivity is established and projections for future summer mass balance are made. Summer mass balance is primarily sensitive to temperature at −0.31 m w.e. per °C change, while winter mass balance is mainly sensitive to precipitation at 0.94 m w.e. per % change. An estimate using summer temperature sensitivity projects a dramatic decrease in summer mass balance to −3.89 m w.e. for the 2091–2100 period under climate scenario RCP8.5. With large increases in temperature anticipated for the next century, more complex modelling studies of the relationship between climate and glacier mass balance is key to understanding the future development of Rabots Glaciär.
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(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)
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Flood Risk Assessment under Climate Change: The Petite Nation River Watershed
by
, , , , and
Climate 2021, 9(8), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080125 - 05 Aug 2021
Abstract
In Canada, climate change is expected to increase the extreme precipitation events by magnitude and frequency, leading to more intense and frequent river flooding. In this study, we attempt to map the flood hazard and damage under projected climate scenarios (2050 and 2080).
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In Canada, climate change is expected to increase the extreme precipitation events by magnitude and frequency, leading to more intense and frequent river flooding. In this study, we attempt to map the flood hazard and damage under projected climate scenarios (2050 and 2080). The study was performed in the two most populated municipalities of the Petite Nation River Watershed, located in southern Quebec (Canada). The methodology follows a modelling approach, in which climate projections are derived from the Hydroclimatic Atlas of Southern Quebec following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These projections are used to predict future river flows. A frequency analysis was carried out with historical data of the peak flow (period 1969–2018) to derive different return periods (2, 20, and 100 years), which were then fed into the GARI tool (Gestion et Analyse du Risque d’Inondation). This tool is used to simulate flood hazard maps and to quantify future flood risk changes. Projected flood hazard (extent and depth) and damage maps were produced for the two municipalities under current and for future scenarios. The results indicate that the flood frequencies are expected to show a minor decrease in peak flows in the basin at the time horizons, 2050 and 2080. In addition, the depth and inundation areas will not significantly change for two time horizons, but instead show a minor decrease. Similarly, the projected flood damage changes in monetary losses are projected to decrease in the future. The results of this study allow one to identify present and future flood hazards and vulnerabilities, and should help decision-makers and the public to better understand the significance of climate change on flood risk in the Petite Nation River watershed.
Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Extremes: Human-Environment Consequences and Adaptation Measures)
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Open AccessArticle
Climatology of Three-Dimensional Eliassen–Palm Wave Activity Fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere from 1981 to 2020
Climate 2021, 9(8), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080124 - 04 Aug 2021
Abstract
Based on the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data from 1981 to 2020, the climatological features of the vertical components of three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm (EP) wave activity fluxes (WAF) were investigated. The parameter is related to eddy heat
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Based on the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data from 1981 to 2020, the climatological features of the vertical components of three-dimensional Eliassen–Palm (EP) wave activity fluxes (WAF) were investigated. The parameter is related to eddy heat flux and is a key indicator of the upward and downward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary-scale waves. Northern Hemisphere data from a 30 km height (or about a 10-hPa level) were used for the analysis. We evaluated the extreme values (daily maxima and minima) of the vertical WAFs, the probability of their recurrences, and their interannual and daily variability observed over the last four decades. The correlation between the upward EP WAF maxima and the 10-hPa stratosphere temperature anomalies were examined. The results show that very close relationships exist between these two parameters with a short time lag, but the initial state of the stratosphere is a key factor in determining the strength of these relationships. Moreover, trends over the last 40 years were evaluated. In this research, we did not find any significant changes in the extreme values of the vertical WAFs. Finally, the dominant spatial patterns of upward and downward extreme WAFs were evaluated. The results show that there are three main regions in the stratosphere where extremely intensive upward and downward WAFs can be observed.
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(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)
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Open AccessArticle
Simulations of Ozone Feedback Effects on the Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a Chemistry–Climate Model
Climate 2021, 9(8), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080123 - 29 Jul 2021
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Ozone feedback effects on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated with a chemistry–climate model (CCM) by modifying ozone abundance in the radiative process. Under a standard run for 50 years, the CCM could realistically reproduce the QBO of about a 28-month period for
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Ozone feedback effects on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated with a chemistry–climate model (CCM) by modifying ozone abundance in the radiative process. Under a standard run for 50 years, the CCM could realistically reproduce the QBO of about a 28-month period for wind and ozone. Five experiment runs were made for 20 years through varying ozone abundance only in the equatorial stratosphere from 100 to 10 hPa by −40, −20, −10, +10, and +20%, respectively, after the chemistry module and transferring the resultant ozone to the radiation calculation. It was found that the modification of ozone abundance in the radiation substantially changed the period of the QBO but slightly influenced the amplitude of the QBO. The 10% and 20% increase runs led to longer QBO periods (31 and 34 months) than that of the standard run, i.e., lengthening by 3 and 6 months, while the 10%, 20%, and 40% decrease runs resulted in shorter periods (24, 22, and 17 months), i.e., shortening by 4, 6, and 11 months. These substantial changes in the QBO period in the experiment runs indicate that the ozone feedback significantly affects the QBO dynamics through the modulation in solar heating.
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Open AccessArticle
Hydro-Meteorological Trends in an Austrian Low-Mountain Catchment
Climate 2021, 9(8), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080122 - 29 Jul 2021
Abstract
While ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when
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While ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper, we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979 and 2019. The analyzed variables include air temperature, precipitation, and catchment runoff. Additionally, the number of wet days, trends for catchment evapotranspiration, and computed potential evapotranspiration were derived. Long-term trends were computed using a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. The analysis shows that while mean annual temperatures were decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, annual maxima were rising. Long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer, with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979 and 2019. Catchment actual evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed no significant trend for the observed time period, while potential evapotranspiration rates based on remote sensing data increased between 1981 and 2019.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Application of Climatic Data in Hydrologic Models)
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Conceptual Model for the Vulnerability Assessment of Springs in the Indian Himalayas
Climate 2021, 9(8), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9080121 - 23 Jul 2021
Abstract
The Indian Himalayan Region is home to nearly 50 million people, more than 50% of whom are dependent on springs for their sustenance. Sustainable management of the nearly 3 million springs in the region requires a framework to identify the springs most vulnerable
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The Indian Himalayan Region is home to nearly 50 million people, more than 50% of whom are dependent on springs for their sustenance. Sustainable management of the nearly 3 million springs in the region requires a framework to identify the springs most vulnerable to change agents which can be biophysical or socio-economic, internal or external. In this study, we conceptualize vulnerability in the Indian Himalayan springs. By way of a systematic review of the published literature and synthesis of research findings, a scheme of identifying and quantifying these change agents (stressors) is presented. The stressors are then causally linked to the characteristics of the springs using indicators, and the resulting impact and responses are discussed. These components, viz., stressors, state, impact, and response, and the linkages are used in the conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of springs. A case study adopting the proposed conceptual model is discussed for Mathamali spring in the Western Himalayas. The conceptual model encourages quantification of stressors and promotes a convergence to an evidence-based decision support system for the management of springs and the dependent ecosystems from the threat due to human development and climate change.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quantity and Quality at Small Scale Watersheds)
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Trends of Hydroclimatic Intensity in Colombia
Climate 2021, 9(7), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9070120 - 19 Jul 2021
Abstract
Prediction of precipitation changes caused by global climate change is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity. To advance, we look at the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and at the CHIRPS database to estimate trends in essential variables
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Prediction of precipitation changes caused by global climate change is a practical and scientific problem of high complexity. To advance, we look at the record of all available rain gauges in Colombia and at the CHIRPS database to estimate trends in essential variables describing precipitation, including HY-INT, an index of the hydrologic cycle’s intensity. Most of the gauges and cells do not show significant trends. Moreover, the signs of the statistically significant trends are opposite between the two datasets. Satisfactory explanation for the discrepancy remains open. Among the CHIRPS database’s statistically significant trends, the western regions (Pacific and Andes) tend to a more intense hydrologic cycle, increasing both intensity and mean dry spell length, whereas for the northern and eastern regions (Caribbean, Orinoco, and Amazon), the tendencies are opposite. This dipole in trends suggests different mechanisms: ENSO affects western Colombia more directly, whereas rainfall in the eastern regions depends more on the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Amazon basin dynamics. Nevertheless, there is countrywide accord among gauges and cells with significant increasing trends for annual precipitation. Overall, these observations constitute essential evidence of the need for developing a more satisfactory theory of climate change effects on tropical precipitation.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Hydrology and Freshwater Resources)
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Open AccessArticle
Time Series Analysis of Climatic Variables in Peninsular Spain. Trends and Forecasting Models for Data between 20th and 21st Centuries
Climate 2021, 9(7), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9070119 - 18 Jul 2021
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Time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation are two of the climatic variables most easily obtained from weather station records. There are many studies analyzing historical series of these variables, particularly in the Spanish territory. In this study, the series
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Time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation are two of the climatic variables most easily obtained from weather station records. There are many studies analyzing historical series of these variables, particularly in the Spanish territory. In this study, the series of these two variables in 47 stations of the provincial capitals of mainland Spain were analyzed. The series cover time periods from the 1940s to 2013; the studies reviewed in mainland Spain go up to 2008. ARIMA models were used to represent their variation. In the preliminary phase of description and identification of the model, a study to detect possible trends in the series was carried out in an isolated manner. Significant trends were found in 15 of the temperature series, and there were trends in precipitation in only five of them. The results obtained for the trends are discussed with reference to those of other, more detailed studies in the different regions, confirming whether the same trend was maintained over time. With the ARIMA models obtained, 12-month predictions were made by measuring errors with the observed data. More than 50% of the series of both were modeled. Predictions with these models could be useful in different aspects of seasonal job planning, such as wildfires, pests and diseases, and agricultural crops.
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Open AccessArticle
Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation
Climate 2021, 9(7), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9070118 - 15 Jul 2021
Abstract
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of
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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a main research interest. Statistical methods, including linear and nonlinear models, have intensively been used in modeling the ENSO index. However, these models are unable to capture sufficient information on ENSO index variability, particularly on its temporal aspects. Hence, this study adopted functional data analysis theory by representing a multivariate ENSO index (MEI) as functional data in climate applications. This study included the functional principal component, which is purposefully designed to find new functions that reveal the most important type of variation in the MEI curve. Simultaneously, graphical methods were also used to visualize functional data and capture outliers that may not have been apparent from the original data plot. The findings suggest that the outliers obtained from the functional plot are then related to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. In conclusion, the functional framework was found to be more flexible in representing the climate phenomenon as a whole.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Dynamics and Modeling: Future Perspectives)
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