Climate — Open Access Journal

Future global warming may result in extreme precipitation events leading to crop, environment and infrastructure damage. Rainfall is a major input for the livelihood of peasant farmers in the Aswa catchment where the future rainfall variability, onset and cessation are also likely to be affected. The Aswa catchment has limited rainfall data; therefore, use of secondary datasets from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is considered in this study, based on the close correlation of the recorded and TRMM rainfall. The latter was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling model for downscaling of two general circulation models to simulate future changes in rainfall. These data were analyzed for trends, wet and dry conditions/variability; onset and cessations of rain using the Mann–Kendall test, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the cumulative percentage mean rainfall method, respectively. Results show future rainfall is likely to increase, accompanied by increasing variability reaching as high as 118.5%. The frequency of SPI values above 2 (extreme wetness) is to increase above current level during mid and end of the century. The highest rainfall variability is expected especially during the onset and cessation months, which are generally expected to come earlier and later, by up to four and five weeks, respectively. The reliability worsens from the midterm (2036–2065) to long term (2066–2099). These likely changes in rainfall quantities, variability, onset and cessation months are some of the key rainfall dynamics that have implications for future arable agriculture, environment and water resource availability and planning over the Aswa catchment, as is increasingly the case elsewhere. Full article

Resilience, adaptation and mitigation are unique but complimentary actions in the fight against climate change (CC), particularly in developing countries. Although evidence suggest the inclusion of stakeholder opinions as part of the frameworks for combating CC, this evidence is not well substantiated, and is not extensively described in sub-Sahara African CC literature. While language remains a big issue in CC discussions, processes comprised within climate actions are equally as important as both the language and the results. It is on the basis of the confusion surrounding the language adopted as actions geared towards combating CC that this study seeks to examine the opinions/perception of CC actors in three West African nations. It looks at perceived and/or suitable solutions to selected CC-imposed challenges in the midst of socio-economic and environmental concerns. A total of 475 individuals, representing NGOs, public and private organizations involved with CC issues, as well as private persons concerned about CC, were recruited across Nigeria, Niger, and Benin, over a two-year period (April 2017–April 2019). A questionnaire containing 15 items was administered. The results of data analysis using chi-square and Fischer’s exact tests show that the mean number of CC actors differs within and across all three countries for all climate action types against CC-imposed challenges. While CC adaptive plans and projects are thought to yield immediate results, they are also observed to be cheaper in comparison to mitigation and resilience projects. Full article

This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes of land use land cover (LULC) and its impact on land surface temperature (LST) in the Galle Municipal Council area (GMCA), Sri Lanka. The same was achieved by employing the multi-temporal satellite data and geo-spatial techniques between 1996 and 2019. The post-classification change detection technique was employed to determine the temporal changes of LULC, and its results were utilized to assess the LST variation over the LULC changes. The results revealed that the area had undergone a drastic LULC transformation. It experienced 38% increase in the built-up area, while vegetation and non-built-up area declined by 26% and 12%, respectively. Rapid urban growth has had a significant effect on the LST, and the built-up area had the highest mean LST of 22.7 °C, 23.2 °C, and 26.3 °C for 1996, 2009, and 2019, correspondingly. The mean LST of the GMCA was 19.2 °C in 1996, 20.1 °C in 2009, and 22.4 °C in 2019. The land area with a temperature above 24 °C increased by 9% and 12% in 2009 and 2019, respectively. The highest LST variation (5.5 °C) was observed from newly added built-up area, which was also transferred from vegetation land. Meanwhile, the lowest mean LST difference was observed from newly added vegetation land. The results show that the mean annual LST increased by 3.2 °C in the last 22 years in GMCA. This study identified significant challenges for urban planners and respective administrative bodies to mitigate and control the negative effect of LST for the long livability of Galle City. Full article

Natural disasters such as dust storms are random phenomena created by complicated mechanisms involving many parameters. In this study, we used copula theory for bivariate modeling of dust storms. Copula theory is a suitable method for multivariate modeling of natural disasters. We identified 40 severe dust storms, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization, during 1982–2017 in Yazd province, central Iran. We used parameters at two spatial vertical levels (near-surface and upper atmosphere) that included surface maximum wind speed, and geopotential height and vertical velocity at 500, 850, and 1000 hPa. We compared two bivariate models based on the pairs of maximum wind speed–geopotential height and maximum wind speed–vertical velocity. We determined the bivariate return period using Student t and Gaussian copulas, which were considered as the most suitable functions for these variables. The results obtained for maximum wind speed–geopotential height indicated that the maximum return period was consistent with the observed frequency of severe dust storms. The bivariate modeling of dust storms based on maximum wind speed and geopotential height better described the conditions of severe dust storms than modeling based on maximum wind speed and vertical velocity. The finding of this study can be useful to improve risk management and mitigate the impacts of severe dust storms. Full article

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in North Africa, and extended dry periods can have a serious impact on economic and social structures, as well as the natural environment. Consequently, understanding the mechanisms that underlie precipitation variability in the region is a key driver of sustainable economic growth in activities such as agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and transport. North Africa’s climate differs significantly between coastal and inland areas. The region has a Mediterranean climate along the coast, characterized by mild, wet winters and warm, dry summers with reasonable rainfall of around 400 to 600 mm per year. The link between winter precipitation variability in this region and atmospheric patterns is assessed here using several gridded datasets of observations and reanalysis as well as model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) covering the last millennium. Results show that the link between the zonal wind index at 850 hPa (U850) and winter precipitation is stronger and more robust over time than the link with some well-known modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). U850 better explains the interannual changes in winter precipitation variability in North Africa for the past decades as well as the last millennium. Both winter precipitation and U850 simulated time series present significant decreasing trends, associated with drier conditions, starting in the 19th century. This is in agreement with the reconstructed and simulated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which shows a decreasing trend toward drying conditions in North Africa. Full article

In this work, a semi-empirical relationship of carbon dioxide emissions with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations has been developed that is capable of closely replicating observations from 1751 to 2018. The analysis was completed using data from fossil-fuel-based and land-use change based CO₂ emissions, both singly and together. Evaluation of emissions data from 1750 to 1890 yields a linear CO₂ concentration component that may be attributed to the net flux from land-use changes combined with a rapidly varying component of the terrestrial sink. This linear component is then coupled across the full-time period with a CO₂ concentration calculation using fossil-fuel combustion/cement production emissions with a single, fixed fossil-fuel combustion airborne fraction [AF_FF] value that is determined by the ocean sink coupled with the remaining slowly varying component of the land sink. The analysis of the data shows that AF_FF has remained constant at 51.3% over the past 268 years. However, considering the broad range of variables including emission and sink processes influencing the climate, it may not be expected that a single value for AF_FF would accurately reproduce the measured changes in CO₂ concentrations during the industrial era. Full article

Climate change is increasingly threatening coastal communities around the world. This article reviews the literature on climate change impacts and adaptation in the Chesapeake Bay region (USA). We reviewed both climate impacts and adaptation literature (n = 283) published in the period 2007–2018 to answer the questions: (i) how are indicators of climate impacts measured and reported by different types of authors (e.g., scientists, government, and NGOs), document types (e.g., academic articles or reports), and geographic focus (e.g., State, region, county, or municipal level)? (ii) what are the current approaches for measuring the most pressing climate impacts in the Chesapeake Bay? We found that scientists produce the most amount of data but are increasingly shifting towards engaging with practitioners through reports and online resources. Most indicators focus on the Chesapeake Bay scale, but data is most needed at the local level where adaptive policies are implemented. Our analysis shows emerging approaches to monitoring climate hazards and areas where synergies between types of authors are likely to increase resilience in the 21st century. This review expands the understanding of the information network in the Chesapeake Bay and explores the institutional landscape of stakeholders involved in the production and consumption of environmental and social change data. The analysis and insights of this review may be extended to similar regions around the planet experiencing or anticipating similar climate hazards to the Chesapeake Bay. Full article

The vegetation changes in the area of the Russian part of the Lake Baikal water basin for the period 2010–2018 were investigated using MCD12C1 land cover. The decline in swamp systems area began in 2012 and continued until 2015, after which it partially recovered during the heavy rain season in 2018. During the period of 2010–2018, the area covered by forests did not exceed 20.3% of the Baikal basin of the total portion of the Baikal basin under study. Deforestation began in 2013 and continued until 2017. Over 2013–2018, the forest level decreased by 12.1% compared to the forest state in 2013. The analysis of summer rainfalls and aridity indexes was performed by using CRU TS and GPCC climatic datasets. It is shown that the interannual variations of precipitation and aridity changes are determined by the variability of the global circulation of moist air masses. The MCD64A1 (burned area) and MCD14ML (active fires) MODIS products were used for investigation of the influence of wildfires on vegetation changes. The spatial hotspot distributions and burned areas in general correspond to aridity zones, but they cannot explain the 20-fold increase in the number of wildfires. Most of the hotspot locations are away from settlements, roads, and loggings, in difficult-to-access mountainous areas, as well as in the low-inhabited areas of Siberia. We assume that the nature of such ignitions includes dry thunderstorms, pyrocumulus lightning, or remote impact. Full article

Climate change is on the national agenda of Russia due to this country’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and the expected degree of warming and precipitation increase in its territory. A content analysis of the mission statements of the 100 biggest Russian companies shows that 18.5% of them deal with environmental issues. About half of the companies that declare pro-environmental behavior belong to the energy production and transmission industry. It also is found that more than 30% of all leading hydrocarbon, chemical, and mining companies express environmental concerns in their mission statements. The main environmental priorities declared by the top Russian companies include caring for nature, production ecologization, energy efficiency, and ecological standards. These priorities are related to climate-friendly behavior, but the latter is not stated directly. Direct consideration of climate change in the mission statements of Russian companies is recommended. Full article

Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet’s climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976–2015) using annual and seasonal time series. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican Meteorological Service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grids of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future. Full article

Olive cultivation is considered as one of the most significant agricultural activities in Greece, from a financial, social, and ecological point of view. Intensive cultivation practices in combination with the Mediterranean climate, lead to depletion of soil organic matter, erosion, desertification, and degradation of water resources. This paper describes sustainable olive crop management practices that were comparatively applied in 120 olive groves in Greece for 5 years with the participation of three farmers groups. Organic materials recycled in the olive groves during the present study were valuable sources of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Carbon content was highest in pruning residue (53.8–54.2%) while all materials studied were considered rich in C ranging between 41.9–46.2% (compost) and 34.9–42.5% (three-phase olive mill waste-OMW). The highest content in nitrogen was detected in compost (2–2.45%) followed by pruning residue (0.93–0.99%) and OMW (0.03–0.1%). Compost was considered a good source of phosphorus (0.3–0.6%) followed by pruning residue (0.08–0.13%) and OMW (0.01–0.3%). Potassium was also considerable in the organic materials recycled ranging 0.5–1.5% in compost followed by pruning residue (0.5–0.7%) and OMW (0.3–1.1%). Adoption of modified pruning also had important contribution toward sustainable management of olive trees. Sustainable pruning resulted in a well-balanced ratio between vegetative growth and fruiting (balanced, every year, in order to eradicate biennial bearing). Significant fluctuation in olive yields was observed in the first years of the project while yields were gradually stabilised by applying sustainable crop management. In parallel, yield increase without additional inputs, lowers the carbon—environmental footprint of the product regarding several environmental impact categories. Results can be integrated in the national agricultural and environmental policy in Mediterranean countries toward the achievement of a circular economy. Full article

Autumn precipitation (AP) has important impacts on agricultural production, water conservation, and water transportation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB; 25°–35° N and 105°–122° E). We obtain the main empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the interannual variation in AP based on daily precipitation data from 97 stations throughout the MLYRB during 1980–2015. The results show that the first leading EOF mode accounts for 30.83% of the total variation. The spatial pattern shows uniform change over the whole region. The variance contribution of the second mode is 16.13%, and its spatial distribution function shows a north-south phase inversion. Based on previous research and the physical considerations discussed herein, we include 13 climate indices to reveal the major predictors. To obtain an acceptable prediction performance, we comprehensively rank the climate indices, which are sorted according to the values of the new standardized algorithm of information flow (NIF, a causality-based approach) and correlation coefficient (a traditional climate diagnostic tool). Finally, Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (TIOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and other four indicators are chosen as the final predictors affecting the first mode of AP over the MLYRB; NINO3.4 SSTA (NINO3.4), Atlantic-European Circulation E Pattern (AECE), and other four indicators are the major predictors for the second mode. In the final prediction experiment, considering the time series prediction of principal components (PCs) to be a small-sample problem, the Bayesian linear regression (BLR) model is used for the prediction. The experimental results reveal that the BLR model can effectively capture the time series trends of the first two modes (the correlation coefficients are greater than 0.5), and the overall performance is significantly better than that of the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The prediction factors and precipitation prediction results identified in this study can be referenced to rapidly obtain climatological information for AP over the MLYRB and improve the regional prediction of AP elsewhere, which will also help policymakers prepare appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures for future climate change. Full article

The current linear economic system has led Europe to unsustainable development, aggravating several issues, such as climate change, limitation of resources, and pollution. As a sustainable alternative, circular economy (CE) has been promoted around the world. This economic system allows for the maximization of a product’s life, thus decreasing its environmental impact and increasing its value. The main goal of this work is to scrutinise the concepts of CE over time, from the beginning of the concept, to its implementation in Europe and its application in Portugal. In addition, the requirement for strategies that led to studies on regional urban metabolism are addressed. Another goal is to examine Portugal and see how the country is dealing with the implementation of strategies for CE, moving from concept to practice. This part of the work resulted in the creation of the REMET-UA model, a tool to assess the regional economic metabolism, which also has the potential to evaluate synergies of materials in terms of fluxes between regions, maximizing the amount of information available at this scale for municipalities and enterprises to be used, having taken into account the purpose of circular economy. The results showed that REMET-UA is fully operational and corresponds to the goal for which the model was made. Future developments have been identified and are underway to improve the model and bring it as close to reality as possible. Full article

There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain a general understanding of the potential risks of multiple plant invasions in PAs located in the tropical island of Sri Lanka under projected climate change. We conducted a further analysis of a multi-species climate suitability assessment, based on a previous study using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and tested how species invasion may change in protected areas under climate change. We evaluated how the climate suitability of 14 nationally recognized invasive alien plant species (IAPS) will vary within PAs and outside PAs by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings suggest that there will be increased risks from multiple IAPS inside PAs and outside PAs in Sri Lanka in the future; however, the potential risk is comparatively less in PAs. We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by IAPS in PAs. The findings of this study highlight important implications for the strategic management of plant invasions in PAs in order to safeguard native biodiversity, with special reference to vertebrates. Full article

The Arabian Gulf is one of the regions in the world experiencing major changes due to increased economic growth rates and development practices. As a shallow water body within a hot desert, the Gulf is exposed to obvious warming in the sea surface temperatures (SST). Remotely sensed SST data were utilized to estimate decadal change in SST with a focus on coral reef locations. There is a positive trend in monthly time series SSTs, with a maximum value of about 0.7 °C/decade for the western side of the Gulf. This high trend of SST is associated with significant coral reef bleaching and it coincides with major climate/ocean interactions. Most of the Arabian countries along the Gulf have coastal developments at low-land areas of high vulnerability to sea level rise. Digital elevation models showed that there are more than 3100 km² of coastal areas that occur at 1 m level along the Arabian countries of the Gulf. Coastal protection and conservation measures are crucial to protect low-lying coasts of urban use. Full article

I address 12 issues related to the study of ocean dynamics and its impact on global temperature change, regional and local climate change, and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. I outline the present achievements and challenges that lie ahead. I start with observations and methods to extend the observations of ocean oscillations over time and end with challenges to find connections between ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic and dynamics in other parts of the globe. Full article