Climate

17 pages, 1056 KB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Variation in Mesoscale Eddy Activity Around the Kuroshio in the East China Sea During 1993–2023

by Mengrong Ding, Yujie Han, Yong Jiang, Yongheng Yao and Zipeng Yu

Climate 2026, 14(2), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020060 - 19 Feb 2026

Mesoscale eddies are highly active around the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS), serving as a crucial component of the ECS’s complex dynamic environment. However, the long-term variation in mesoscale eddies in this region has not been systematically investigated. Based on daily [...] Read more.

Mesoscale eddies are highly active around the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS), serving as a crucial component of the ECS’s complex dynamic environment. However, the long-term variation in mesoscale eddies in this region has not been systematically investigated. Based on daily satellite altimeter data spanning from January 1993 to December 2023, this study comprehensively investigates the trend characteristics of mesoscale eddies in the ECS during this period, using eddy metrics such as Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) and eddy polarity probability. EKE in the ECS is primarily high around the Kuroshio, exhibiting a significant increasing trend. This upward trend is more pronounced in summer, autumn, and winter, all of which pass the significance test. From the statistics of coherent mesoscale eddies, cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies show opposite trend characteristics: cyclonic eddies display trends of decreasing number and weakening intensity, while anticyclonic eddies exhibit trends of increasing number and strengthening intensity. Energy transfer from the background flow makes a certain contribution to the aforementioned trends, but is relatively complex. The opposing trend characteristics exhibited by eddies of different polarities are related to the work done by the upper-ocean wind field. The nonuniform responses of wind-related changes in cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies could affect the regional patterns of ocean circulation and biogeochemical responses to future climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Dynamics and Impacts of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on Regional and Global Climate)

11 pages, 1170 KB

Open AccessArticle

Racial-Ethnic and Regional Disparities in Climate Event Exposures in a National United States Sample

by Roger Wong and Saba Solomon

Climate 2026, 14(2), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020059 - 18 Feb 2026

Abstract

Within the U.S., there are racial–ethnic and regional disparities in climate event experiences. For example, the West region has experienced increased frequencies of wildfires, whereas minoritized racial–ethnic groups have experienced more climate events. There is limited research investigating the intersection between race–ethnicity and [...] Read more.

Within the U.S., there are racial–ethnic and regional disparities in climate event experiences. For example, the West region has experienced increased frequencies of wildfires, whereas minoritized racial–ethnic groups have experienced more climate events. There is limited research investigating the intersection between race–ethnicity and region in relation to multiple climate events, particularly with a national U.S. sample. We aimed to examine regional (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) differences in five climate event exposures (wildfire, drought, sea level rise, severe weather, and heat wave), and assess whether race–ethnicity (White, Black, Hispanic, and Asian) moderates this relationship. Our study utilized the 2022 American Trends Panel data, a nationally representative sample of 9799 U.S. adults. Regional and climate associations were analyzed using chi-square tests, while moderation was tested using interactions between race–ethnicity and region in separate logistic regression models that adjusted for sociodemographic factors. We found elevated frequencies of wildfires, drought, and heat waves in the West, sea level rise in all coastal regions except the inland Midwest, and severe weather in the South. Within the Northeast, Black adults were less exposed to sea level rise, while Asian adults were less exposed to wildfires and sea level rise. Within the Midwest, Black adults were less exposed to drought. Within the South, Hispanic adults were more exposed to drought. These findings provide insights into tailoring emergency preparedness efforts by region and prompt further investigation into reasons why some racial–ethnic groups are less likely to experience certain climate events. Full article

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17 pages, 307 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Social Distribution of Climate Change Risk Perception: Unraveling Intersectional Patterns of Concern in the United States

by Musabber Ali Chisty

Climate 2026, 14(2), 58; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020058 - 16 Feb 2026

Abstract

The escalating frequency and severity of extreme weather events globally have underscored the critical importance of addressing anthropogenic climate change. Countries that contribute disproportionately to global warming relative to their population size bear an urgent responsibility to mitigate climate risks. However, effecting substantive [...] Read more.

The escalating frequency and severity of extreme weather events globally have underscored the critical importance of addressing anthropogenic climate change. Countries that contribute disproportionately to global warming relative to their population size bear an urgent responsibility to mitigate climate risks. However, effecting substantive policy change requires a broad public consensus to compel legislative action, a process fundamentally dependent on risk perception. It is theorized that individuals, households, and communities with higher levels of climate change risk perception are more inclined to adopt mitigation behaviors and support collective action. Such perception, however, varies considerably across social dimensions. This study aims to examine how sociodemographic factors shape climate change risk perception among Americans and how intersectionality reveals nuanced patterns beyond single-axis analysis. Using data from the 2023 National Survey of Health Attitudes, the analysis demonstrates that gender, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, religiosity, marital status, and geographic region serve as strong predictors of climate risk perception. Further intersectional analysis reveals that individuals with multiple marginalized social identities, such as race, gender, and socioeconomic status, perceive climate risk distinctly from those without such compounded identities. The study concludes that effective climate communication and policy interventions must prioritize sociodemographic diversity and integrate an intersectional lens to address differential vulnerabilities and perceptions equitably. Full article

18 pages, 1253 KB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Non-Linear Lag Effects of Drought on Sectoral Stock Returns Using a Histogram Gradient Boosting Autoregressive Approach

by Abhiram S. P. Pamula, Negin Zamani, Isael E. Gonzalez, Kalyani Reddy Mallepally, Sevda Akbari and Mohammad Hadi Bazrkar

Climate 2026, 14(2), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020057 - 14 Feb 2026

Abstract

Drought is a slow-onset hazard whose economic impacts can propagate across sectors with multi-year delays. This study develops a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous drought inputs (ARX) to assess whether U.S. drought severity, measured by the Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI), contains [...] Read more.

Drought is a slow-onset hazard whose economic impacts can propagate across sectors with multi-year delays. This study develops a non-linear autoregressive model with exogenous drought inputs (ARX) to assess whether U.S. drought severity, measured by the Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI), contains incremental predictive information for monthly stock returns. Using weekly DSCI and stock price data from 2013 to 2023, we constructed monthly compound returns and multi-year drought lags spanning 1–5 years for four sector-representative firms: a water utility (American Water Works, AWK), two food service firms (Chipotle Mexican Grill, CMG; Starbucks, SBUX), and an industrial manufacturer (Tesla, TSLA). We compared regularized linear ARX baselines (Elastic Net, Ridge) with a non-linear Histogram Gradient Boosting Regressor (HGB) ARX model and used permutation importance to diagnose drought-relevant lag horizons. Results showed a clear, delayed drought signal for the water utility, with a dominant ~48-month drought lag, consistent with multi-year transmission through operations, regulation, and investment cycles. In contrast, drought lags added limited or unstable information for the food service firms and negligible information for TSLA, whose dynamics were dominated by non-drought drivers. Overall, the findings indicate that drought–return relationships are sector-specific and can emerge at multi-year lags, and that non-linear ARX models provide a flexible tool for detecting these delayed climate-risk signals. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Adaptation Costs and Finance)

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15 pages, 1628 KB

Open AccessArticle

Comparative Performance of the Halphen-A and Pearson Type III Distributions in Modeling Annual Maximum Discharges in Romania

by Dan Ianculescu and Cristian Gabriel Anghel

Climate 2026, 14(2), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020056 - 14 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study presents a comparative flood frequency analysis of annual maximum discharges for major Romanian river basins, assessing the performance of the Halphen-A distribution relative to the Pearson Type III distribution, the reference model in Romanian hydrological practice. Four long-term discharge series from [...] Read more.

This study presents a comparative flood frequency analysis of annual maximum discharges for major Romanian river basins, assessing the performance of the Halphen-A distribution relative to the Pearson Type III distribution, the reference model in Romanian hydrological practice. Four long-term discharge series from the Siret, Ialomița, and Danube rivers are analyzed, covering diverse hydroclimatic conditions. Distribution parameters are estimated using the method of moments and maximum likelihood estimation. Model performance is evaluated using RMSE and MAE, complemented by an analysis of extreme quantile behavior. The results show that both distributions fit the observed data well, with only minor differences in global error metrics. However, for high return periods (T > 100 years), Halphen-A exhibits smoother extrapolation and yields more stable extreme quantile estimates, particularly when estimated by MLE. Although Pearson III often achieves slightly lower metrics values, its upper tail is more constrained and sensitive to skewness and record length. The study concludes that classical goodness-of-fit measures alone are insufficient for selecting models for design floods and that Halphen-A provides a robust complementary alternative for extreme flood estimation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modeling and Advanced Statistics of Climate Change)

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21 pages, 5259 KB

Open AccessArticle

Integrating AI and Statistical Modeling to Predict Key Sustainability Drivers of Climate Change Mitigation in Europe

by Margareta Ilie and Constantin Ilie

Climate 2026, 14(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020055 - 13 Feb 2026

Abstract

This study presents a hybrid modeling framework aimed at enhancing climate mitigation strategies by evaluating the predictive power of sustainability indicators using both statistical analysis—correlation metrics, regression modeling, distribution tests—and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The analysis centers on variables critical to climate outcomes, [...] Read more.

This study presents a hybrid modeling framework aimed at enhancing climate mitigation strategies by evaluating the predictive power of sustainability indicators using both statistical analysis—correlation metrics, regression modeling, distribution tests—and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The analysis centers on variables critical to climate outcomes, including renewable energy use in transport and electricity, greenhouse gas emissions from production, and aggregated target completion values. The findings identify renewable energy usage in transport as the primary predictor of improved performance in the Sustainable Development Report (SDR), followed by overall target completeness, electricity-based renewables, and production-related emissions. Multidimensional interaction analyses highlight a synergetic link between transport renewables and target achievement, underscoring their strategic relevance for climate mitigation efforts. The ANN models demonstrate high predictive accuracy and minimal error, affirming the model’s suitability for scenario-based climate forecasting. Results offer actionable intelligence for policymakers and climate stakeholders to optimize resource allocation and accelerate low-carbon transitions. The study acknowledges limitations, namely, the relatively small dataset and EU-centric analysis, and recommends future extensions to more geographically diverse datasets and the incorporation of advanced econometric techniques and AI frameworks to improve generalizability and predictive potency. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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22 pages, 8372 KB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of an Australian Regional Climate Modeling System for Air Quality Application

by Kevin K. W. Cheung, Alea Yeasmin, Khalia Monk, Jing Kong, Ningbo Jiang, Fei Ji, Lisa T.-C. Chang, Md. Wahiduzzaman, Hiep Duc Nguyen, Azzi Merched, Giovanni Di Virgilio and Matthew L. Riley

Climate 2026, 14(2), 54; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020054 - 12 Feb 2026

Abstract

Estimating future air quality under the warming climate is an urgent task for all populated regions. Often, climate models are evaluated with respect to air temperature and precipitation, but without a focus on other air quality-related meteorological variables. This study evaluated a regional [...] Read more.

Estimating future air quality under the warming climate is an urgent task for all populated regions. Often, climate models are evaluated with respect to air temperature and precipitation, but without a focus on other air quality-related meteorological variables. This study evaluated a regional ensemble system over the southeast Australian region driven by five selected CMIP6 global climate models (downscaled by two regional models, making the ensemble size ten) in terms of a range of surface variables relevant for air quality from seasonal to diurnal timescales. Results showed that the two regional climate models, although only differing in their planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, performed quite differently. In general, the regional model with the MYNN2 PBL scheme (named R3) performed better than the other. While most meteorological variables, including surface wind speed, were verified well, wind direction showed large biases and variability among models. When downscaled (~4 km resolution) atmospheric variables were applied to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, the ensemble members, particularly the two versions of the regional model, resulted in different chemical species concentrations. A model ranking scheme was developed based on various spatiotemporal timescales and identified slightly superior performance by the regional model R3. The findings provide a valuable reference for selecting optimized model members for future air quality projections. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Climate Change Impacts in Australia)

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26 pages, 9869 KB

Open AccessArticle

Extreme Precipitation in the Lerma Santiago River System: A Comprehensive Spatio–Temporal Analysis from 1950 to 2018

by Miriam G. Castro Lazcarro, Valentina Davydova Belitskaya, Arturo Figueroa Montaño, Martha G. Orozco Medina and Norma P. Muñoz Sevilla

Climate 2026, 14(2), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020053 - 11 Feb 2026

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and placing increasing pressure on global water resources, particularly in regions with high climatic variability such as Mexico. However, long-term changes in precipitation patterns and their implications for water resource vulnerability remain insufficiently characterized. This study [...] Read more.

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and placing increasing pressure on global water resources, particularly in regions with high climatic variability such as Mexico. However, long-term changes in precipitation patterns and their implications for water resource vulnerability remain insufficiently characterized. This study analyzes historical precipitation trends from 1950 to 2018 and evaluates their implications for water resource vulnerability in the Lerma Santiago River System, one of Mexico’s most critical hydrological systems. A longitudinal analysis of nearly seven decades of precipitation data was conducted. Data quality and homogeneity were ensured using the RHtestV4s tool, and climate extremes and trends were assessed with the RClimDex package following ETCCDI guidelines. The findings indicate a significant decline in annual precipitation, with reductions of approximately 15% in downstream areas. Consecutive dry days increased by nearly 20%, while consecutive wet days decreased by about 10%. Although rainfall intensity has increased, events are concentrated over fewer days, amplifying water-scarcity risks. These climatic pressures are further compounded by dam construction, which restricts water availability. The results highlight the high vulnerability of the Lerma Santiago River System to combined climatic and anthropogenic stresses, underscoring the urgent need for integrated, multi-scale water and climate management strategies to enhance regional resilience. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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13 pages, 3415 KB

Open AccessCommunication

Declining Rainfall in Southern Coastal Australia Signals a Return to Drought, Low Dam Levels, Declining Stream Flows, and Catastrophic Bushfires

by Milton Speer and Lance Leslie

Climate 2026, 14(2), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020052 - 10 Feb 2026

Abstract

Since early 2023, severe to exceptional drought has developed in southern coastal Australia, with dam levels falling as stream flows plummet. The wet season, April to September, reflects the most equatorward position of the mid-latitude westerly wind regime that brings rain-bearing systems to [...] Read more.

Since early 2023, severe to exceptional drought has developed in southern coastal Australia, with dam levels falling as stream flows plummet. The wet season, April to September, reflects the most equatorward position of the mid-latitude westerly wind regime that brings rain-bearing systems to southern coastal Australia. Climatologically, an upper-level tropospheric split-jet is present in the Australia–New Zealand region. This is evident in the subtropical jet (STJ) location when the 1965 to 1995 u-component of the 250 hPa wind anomaly, relative to 1991 to 2020, is located above northern tropical Australia, and the weaker polar-front jet (PFJ) branch anomaly spans the mid-latitudes south of Australia. Permutation testing revealed a statistically significant decrease in the 2016 to 2025 wet season mean precipitation across southern Australia. Compared with the 1965 to 1995 u-component wind anomaly at 250 hPa, the 2006 to 2015 decadal anomaly still shows the split jet with the STJ branch over northern tropical Australia and the PFJ in the mid-latitudes of the Australia–New Zealand region. However, there is a dramatic change in position and structure of the STJ branch of the split jet, between the 1965 to 2015 and the 2026 to 2025 anomalies. The split jet structure has shifted approximately 10° poleward, causing rain-producing systems to track south of the Australian continent. The reduced precipitation can generate more frequent and intense droughts, with greatly reduced stream flows and dam levels. Historically, the low precipitation warm season follows from October to March when heatwaves, combined with pre-existing dry conditions, often create catastrophic bushfire conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change and Human Impact on Freshwater Water Resources: Rivers and Lakes, 2nd Edition)

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26 pages, 1501 KB

Open AccessArticle

Unpacking the Nexus of Water Stress, Migration, Gender Inequality, and Health Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

by Sebrin Abdullahi and Nidhi Nagabhatla

Climate 2026, 14(2), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020051 - 10 Feb 2026

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa faces intersecting challenges of water scarcity, climate-induced migration, and gender inequality, all of which have profound implications for health. These overlapping stressors, compounded by fragile socioeconomic conditions, contribute to heightened vulnerability, particularly among women, whose mobility is often restricted by gender [...] Read more.

Sub-Saharan Africa faces intersecting challenges of water scarcity, climate-induced migration, and gender inequality, all of which have profound implications for health. These overlapping stressors, compounded by fragile socioeconomic conditions, contribute to heightened vulnerability, particularly among women, whose mobility is often restricted by gender norms, increasing their exposure to health risks. Despite the growing recognition of these challenges, the interconnected impacts on physical and psychosocial health remain underexplored. Understanding these overlapping issues supports integrated interventions and aligns with SDGs 3, 5, 6, and 13. The study aims to inform inclusive, context-specific policy responses that address the compounded health vulnerabilities of marginalized populations in Sub-Saharan Africa through climate-resilient and gender-responsive strategies. This study employed a mixed-methods approach combining a narrative review with key informant interviews to examine these linkages. Findings were thematically analyzed using systems thinking and a nexus approach to identify key patterns. It found that water stress, migration, gender inequality, and health outcomes are deeply interconnected in the region, with women disproportionately bearing the impacts. Gender norms amplify risks, leading to adverse physical, nutritional, and psychosocial health outcomes. Addressing these challenges requires integrated, gender-transformative, and cross-sectoral interventions that strengthen resilience, equity, and sustainable development in the region. This study underscores the urgency of adopting nexus-oriented, gender-transformative, and integrated policy and health responses within climate adaptation and development planning. Full article

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10 pages, 460 KB

Open AccessBrief Report

Social Vulnerability and Its Effects on PM2.5 Related Circulatory and Respiratory Mortality in Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil

by Danielle Satie Kassada, Larissa Marques Suardi, Igor de Lima Peixoto Rocha, Guilherme Coelho and Ana Carolina Souza Peratelli

Climate 2026, 14(2), 50; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020050 - 7 Feb 2026

Abstract

Ambient air pollution is a major environmental health risk, with impacts that may be unevenly distributed across vulnerable populations, particularly in urban areas under changing climate conditions. This study assessed whether social conditions modify the association between exposure to fine particulate matter (PM [...] Read more.

Ambient air pollution is a major environmental health risk, with impacts that may be unevenly distributed across vulnerable populations, particularly in urban areas under changing climate conditions. This study assessed whether social conditions modify the association between exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and deaths from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Campinas, Brazil. An ecological time-series study was conducted from 2010 to 2023 using monthly death data aggregated at the catchment-area level of 63 Primary Health Care Centers, stratified into four vulnerability groups. Associations between monthly PM_2.5 concentrations and mortality rates were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models within a generalized additive modeling framework, adjusting for meteorological variables, ozone, seasonality, and long-term trends. A total of 38,311 cardiorespiratory deaths were recorded. Mortality rates varied non-linearly across strata, and a statistically significant positive association between PM_2.5 exposure and mortality was observed only in the intermediate–high vulnerability group at higher pollution levels. No significant associations were identified in the lowest or highest vulnerability strata. These findings indicate that social context modifies air pollution–related mortality risks, highlighting the importance of incorporating vulnerability dimensions into air quality assessments and climate-related public health strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impact on Human Health)

23 pages, 16392 KB

Open AccessArticle

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change and Landcover/Land Use Transformations on Highlands Hydrological Ecosystem Services in the Piuray–Ccorimarca Watershed (Andean Cordillera of Peru)

by Cristian Montesinos, Danny Saavedra, Luc Bourrel, Pedro Rau, Renny Daniel Diaz and Waldo Lavado-Casimiro

Climate 2026, 14(2), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020049 - 6 Feb 2026

Abstract

Watersheds provide fundamental hydrological ecosystem services for human well-being and the environment, such as water provisioning, hydrological cycle regulation, and erosion control; however, these services face increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study assessed individual and combined impacts on the hydrological functionality of [...] Read more.

Watersheds provide fundamental hydrological ecosystem services for human well-being and the environment, such as water provisioning, hydrological cycle regulation, and erosion control; however, these services face increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study assessed individual and combined impacts on the hydrological functionality of the Piuray–Ccorimarca watershed (Cusco, Peru) using a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, analyzing water yield, soil water storage, and sediment transport across 20 scenarios. An ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with bias correction was implemented, integrated with land transformation projections contemplating urban expansion associated with airport development and forest recovery through Payment for Ecosystem Services mechanisms. The results reveal climate change as the dominant driver, generating water yield increases and soil water content improvements primarily due to evapotranspiration decoupling that increases the runoff coefficient. In contrast, land use change produces substantially smaller hydrological effects but critically intensifies sediment yield. Spatial vulnerability analysis identified eight persistently critical sub-basins (20.5% of area) where soil water content emerged as the dominant limiting factor. These findings establish a clear management hierarchy prioritizing climate adaptation over land use interventions, with differentiated strategies required for critical zones demanding structural interventions versus non-critical areas amenable to flexible conservation approaches. Full article

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20 pages, 940 KB

Open AccessArticle

Weather Modification and Local Climate Management in the United States: A Review of Its Technological Evolution, Operations, Governance, and Local Implementation Challenges

by Haoying Wang and Yixin Chen

Climate 2026, 14(2), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020048 - 4 Feb 2026

Abstract

Weather modification has gained significant and growing interest in the United States (US) in recent years. The trend can be largely attributed to the changing climate, persistent droughts, and other extreme weather events that have been experienced across various regions of the US. [...] Read more.

Weather modification has gained significant and growing interest in the United States (US) in recent years. The trend can be largely attributed to the changing climate, persistent droughts, and other extreme weather events that have been experienced across various regions of the US. This paper provides a critical review of weather modification program costs, benefits, policy, and governance to help shed light on policymaking and program management associated with the growing interest in adopting weather modification as a local climate management strategy in the US. Additionally, to deepen our understanding of the widely concerning issues, such as the financial burden on taxpayers and potential environmental risks, the paper explored the local implementation challenges and common environmental and public health concerns related to weather modification activities. A synthesis of the literature and policy debates reached four general conclusions: (1) The need for weather modification programs is expected to keep growing, though regional variations may exist due to regulatory and other local factors; (2) weather modification can bring significant local benefits, ranging from enhanced agricultural yield and recreational economy to extreme weather management and public environmental health benefits; (3) state-level and local support, including financial resources, will be essential for program development in the foreseeable future; and (4) technological advancements will be critical for addressing many of the project operation efficiency challenges and environmental and public health concerns related to weather modification programs. More specifically for program governance and local implementation, aspects such as project planning (including resource pooling), risk and liability management, communication and reporting, outcome measurability, and stakeholder engagement are indispensable for addressing issues related to program legality and oversight, public acceptance, and sustainability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Economics)

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24 pages, 1338 KB

Open AccessReview

Evaluating the Measurement of Heat Stress in a Tropical City: Kolkata, India

by Charles A. Weitz and Barun Mukhopadhyay

Climate 2026, 14(2), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020047 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

People living in India are experiencing some of the hottest summers on the planet. Conditions are particularly harsh in Indian cities, like Kolkata, where high temperatures are combined with high humidity. Understanding how conditions in Kolkata have evolved could provide an important addition [...] Read more.

People living in India are experiencing some of the hottest summers on the planet. Conditions are particularly harsh in Indian cities, like Kolkata, where high temperatures are combined with high humidity. Understanding how conditions in Kolkata have evolved could provide an important addition to the growing study of the problems facing megacities in the hot, humid tropics. Yet in Kolkata, this understanding is obscured by different, often incompatible, methods of assessing the intensity of heat stress. This narrative review considers the problems encountered when attempting to develop a clear understanding of past increases or even to quantify current conditions using conventional meteorological or remote sensing data. Rather than trying to arrive at a precise quantification of how much hotter it is now in Kolkata than in the past, we argue for more fine-grained, individual-level understanding of how heat is experienced. An example of this approach is provided by a study that used telemetric devices to continuously monitor the temperature and humidity to which elderly residents of slum areas in Kolkata were exposed during 24h periods as they went about their daily lives. This study indicates that individuals experience a diversity of heat conditions that are inadequately represented by outdoor temperatures. Living in dwellings where indoor temperatures are often hotter than outdoor temperatures, the daily heat stress experienced by this vulnerable group varies between conditions that are stressful but endurable to those that approach the limits of human heat tolerance. Given the likelihood of even hotter environments in the future, urban planners will need access to more comprehensive heat studies, focusing on continual monitoring of heat stress and physiological responses of individuals from different walks of life. Full article

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32 pages, 2125 KB

Open AccessArticle

Learning from 102 European Municipalities: Sectoral and Regional Patterns of Action Plans in Climate City Contracts

by Ana Belén Gómez Minguela, Sabrina Bresciani and Francesco Michele Noera

Climate 2026, 14(2), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020046 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

Cities are among the major consumers of environmental resources and contribute significantly to the degradation of many ecosystems. For this reason, the European Union is prioritising the transformation of the role of European cities to become key actors in enabling sustainable and efficient [...] Read more.

Cities are among the major consumers of environmental resources and contribute significantly to the degradation of many ecosystems. For this reason, the European Union is prioritising the transformation of the role of European cities to become key actors in enabling sustainable and efficient urban systems. Part of this effort is enacted through the Mission “Cities,” that guides cities in developing Climate City Contracts (CCC), which are innovative governance instruments that outline municipalities’ collaborative and systemic plans to reach climate neutrality. This article examines how 102 Mission Cities across Europe plan to reach climate neutrality by 2030, by analysing the selection of typologies of actions included in their CCCs. Results reveal distinct regional patterns in how municipalities design their portfolios of climate actions in key topics: an integrated and diversified combination of sectoral measures and governance innovations in Northern and Western Europe, a focus on upgrading core infrastructures in Central and Eastern Europe, and prioritisation of interventions in mobility and the Built Environment in Southern Europe. These findings provide insights for policy and planning strategies, and highlight countries that progress faster in specific topics and those that still face relevant barriers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Adaptation and Mitigation in the Urban Environment)

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21 pages, 4185 KB

Open AccessArticle

Policy Learning for Local Decarbonization Through Transdisciplinary Dialogue: Insights from the Kyoto Roundtable

by Eri Aoki, Kenshi Baba, Naoki Masuhara, Kazunori Nakajima and Makoto Taniguchi

Climate 2026, 14(2), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020045 - 3 Feb 2026

Abstract

Local governments play a critical role in advancing climate change mitigation under national carbon neutrality strategies; however, practical mechanisms for policy learning and collaboration remain limited. This study analyzes the Kyoto Roundtable, a transdisciplinary dialogue platform designed to support municipalities toward decarbonization in [...] Read more.

Local governments play a critical role in advancing climate change mitigation under national carbon neutrality strategies; however, practical mechanisms for policy learning and collaboration remain limited. This study analyzes the Kyoto Roundtable, a transdisciplinary dialogue platform designed to support municipalities toward decarbonization in Japan. Based on a policy-learning framework co-designed with frontrunner municipalities, we implemented five roundtable sessions involving municipal officers and researchers. Analysis of workshop discussions, action-planning sheets, and participant surveys illustrates how structured dialogue supports policy learning and coordination. The findings indicate that inter-municipal networks and sustained science–policy dialogue play a crucial role in motivating local climate policy development. Mutual learning and knowledge exchange within the roundtable enhanced participants’ engagement and capacity to adapt policies. The interaction between horizontal inter-municipal collaboration and vertical support from supramunicipal and national governments contributed to early-stage policy diffusion. These findings suggest that transdisciplinary dialogue platforms can function as critical infrastructure for scaling local decarbonization by sustaining policy learning and inter-municipal collaboration. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

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16 pages, 2666 KB

Open AccessArticle

Urban Heat Exposure and Demographic Susceptibility Assessment Under Extreme Heat Conditions: The Case of Milan

by Maddalena Buffoli, Roxana Maria Sala, Stefano Arruzzoli and Stefano Capolongo

Climate 2026, 14(2), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020044 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and global warming are amplifying heat-related health risks, particularly for vulnerable age groups. This study develops an open-source risk assessment framework that uses big data from remote sensing, land use, and population datasets to evaluate heat-related health risks. The framework integrates [...] Read more.

Rapid urbanization and global warming are amplifying heat-related health risks, particularly for vulnerable age groups. This study develops an open-source risk assessment framework that uses big data from remote sensing, land use, and population datasets to evaluate heat-related health risks. The framework integrates indicators of green infrastructure, Land Surface Temperature (LST), and demographic vulnerability to identify areas of increased health risk. Milan (Italy) was used as the case study for the application to test the methodology and validate its capacity to detect spatial correlations between Surface Urban Heat Island (Surface UHI) intensity and concentrations of sensitive population groups (children aged 0–5 and elderly aged 65+). The results highlight distinct spatial inequalities in heat exposure and health vulnerability, confirming the method’s potential to support climate adaptation and public health planning. By relying entirely on open-access data and tools, this approach offers a replicable and scalable model for assessing climate-related health risks and informing evidence-based strategies that can support public administrations to visualize risk, prioritize interventions, and enhance urban resilience. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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22 pages, 2862 KB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Variations in Solar Radiation and Its Role in Air Temperature Increase at Dome C (Antarctica)

by Jianhui Bai, Xiaowei Wan, Angelo Lupi, Maurizio Busetto and Xuemei Zong

Climate 2026, 14(2), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020043 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

Based on a previously developed empirical model of global solar irradiance (EMGSI) at the Dome C station under all-sky conditions, and on good simulations of global solar radiation and its losses in the atmosphere caused by absorption and scattering components, as well as [...] Read more.

Based on a previously developed empirical model of global solar irradiance (EMGSI) at the Dome C station under all-sky conditions, and on good simulations of global solar radiation and its losses in the atmosphere caused by absorption and scattering components, as well as albedos at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface (TOAsur) during 2006–2016, similar estimations for the above parameters during 2018–2021 and 2006–2021 were computed by further application of this empirical model, and reliable calculations were also obtained, as in 2006–2016. The long-term variations in the above variables were thoroughly investigated during 2006–2021. For annual averages over 2006–2021, the calculated and observed global solar radiation decreased, and the absorption and scattering losses increased, well associated with increases in absorption and scattering atmospheric substances. Air temperature increased by 0.99 °C, showing regional climate warming. The mechanisms of air temperature increase were fully studied, and the basic mechanism reported previously was further confirmed. Additionally, the mechanisms of air temperature change vary with gases, liquids, and particles (GLPs) and with sites. Therefore, a proposal is recommended that, to reduce climate warming, all forms of direct emissions of GLPs and the secondary formation of new GLPs in the atmosphere produced by these directly emitted GLPs via chemical and photochemical reactions (CPRs) should be controlled. The estimated and satellite-derived albedos during 2006–2021 decreased at the TOAsur. An integrated understanding of solar radiation transfer in the atmosphere and of energy balance at the TOAsur is necessary. Full article

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15 pages, 3498 KB

Open AccessArticle

A Framework to Integrate Microclimate Conditions in Building Energy Use Models at a Whole-City Scale

by Sedi Lawrence, Ulrike Passe and Jan Thompson

Climate 2026, 14(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14020042 - 2 Feb 2026

Abstract

Urbanization and climate change have intensified the need for advanced methods to simulate building energy performance within realistic urban environmental contexts. This study presents a microclimate-informed framework for developing representative building energy prototypes that enable the estimation of energy use for buildings sharing [...] Read more.

Urbanization and climate change have intensified the need for advanced methods to simulate building energy performance within realistic urban environmental contexts. This study presents a microclimate-informed framework for developing representative building energy prototypes that enable the estimation of energy use for buildings sharing similar microclimatic conditions and building-level characteristics. The framework is demonstrated using Des Moines, Iowa, as a case study. The framework combines high-resolution microclimate modeling with geospatial analysis to quantify the influence of urban form and vegetation on building energy use. Localized weather files were generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to capture spatial variations in microclimate across the city. Detailed three-dimensional models of buildings and trees were developed from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) point cloud data and integrated with building attributes, including construction materials and heating and cooling systems, to generate representative building typologies use them to build a similarity-based lookup table. Urban energy simulations were conducted using the Urban Modeling Interface (UMI). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework, simulations were conducted for two building prototypes according to the framework. Results show that monthly energy use intensity (EUI) of a representative cluster compared to randomly selected buildings differs by 10% to 19%, with both positive and negative deviations observed depending on building template and month. Thus, the proposed framework shows great promise to capture comparable energy performance trends across buildings with similar construction characteristics and urban context and minimize computational demands for doing so. While evapotranspiration effects are not explicitly modeled in the current framework, they are recognized as an important microclimatic process and will be incorporated in future work. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework provides a scalable and computationally efficient approach for urban-scale energy analysis and can support data driven decision making for climate-responsive urban planning. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Heat Adaptation: Potential, Feasibility, Equity)

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