Climate

13 pages, 2131 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impacts of Changes in Near-Term Climate Forcers on East Asia’s Climate

by Hyun Min Sung, Jae-Hee Lee, Jisun Kim, Hyomee Lee, Pil-Hun Chang and Kyung-On Boo

Climate 2025, 13(9), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090191 - 16 Sep 2025

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset to assess the potential changes in air quality under varying emission scenarios for the present day (1995–2014) and near-term future (2015–2054). Present-day PM_2.5 concentrations in EA averaged 14.3 ± 2.6 μg/m³, with significant regional variation: East China (32.43 μg/m³), Korea (13.71 μg/m³), and Japan (7.51 μg/m³). A reduction in historical NTCF emissions would lower PM_2.5 concentrations by approximately 43% across EA, whereas reducing O₃ precursors would yield an approximately 10% decrease. Under the SSP370 scenario, PM_2.5 concentrations are projected to increase by 16% in the near-term future (2045–2054). However, robust NTCF mitigation could reduce PM_2.5 levels by approximately 40%, primarily by decreasing sulfate and organic aerosols, which are the dominant contributors of historical PM_2.5 variability. Despite substantial projected improvements, achieving the World Health Organization’s stringent air quality guidelines remains challenging, highlighting the necessity for enhanced emissions control targeting key pollutant sources. These insights are crucial to East Asian policymakers aiming to implement effective air quality management strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Perspectives in Air Pollution, Climate, and Public Health)

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13 pages, 274 KB

Open AccessReview

A Typology of Climate Obstruction Discourses: Phenomenon, Action, Source

by Marie-Félixe Fortin, Annabelle Olivier, Sarah-Jane Vincent, Naomi Laflamme, Rebecca Soland and Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh

Climate 2025, 13(9), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090190 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing [...] Read more.

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing literature while comprehensively classifying tactics that hinder climate action. We argue that climate obstruction better encapsulates the broad strategies used to delay climate action than climate skepticism. Our typology comprises three categories, each distinguished by the target of obstruction. First, Phenomenon Obstruction (Target 1) includes discourses to obstruct the fact that climate change is occurring and human-caused as well as the severity of its impacts. Second, Climate Action Obstruction (Target 2) encompasses discourses targeting solutions to tackle climate change, such as promoting unproven solutions or greenwashing, shifting responsibility, casting doubt on climate policy productivity, looking for policy perfectness, and appealing to cultural and partisan identity to oppose climate action. Last, Source Credibility Obstruction (Target 3) undermines the credibility of climate actors or climate research, pertaining to its method and data as opposed to questioning the existence of the phenomenon itself (Target 1), and casting such actors as conspirators. Based on a review of 138 scholarly publications, this framework equips scholars to analyze how these strategies manifest across political discourse, news media, and social media. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

19 pages, 6711 KB

Open AccessArticle

Neural Network Modelling of Temperature and Salinity in the Venice Lagoon

by Fabio Bozzeda, Marco Sigovini and Piero Lionello

Climate 2025, 13(9), 189; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090189 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study applies an artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate monthly temperature and salinity variations at three stations in the Venice lagoon, which have been selected to represent different regimes (marine, riverine and intermediate) in terms of relevance of local processes and exchanges [...] Read more.

This study applies an artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate monthly temperature and salinity variations at three stations in the Venice lagoon, which have been selected to represent different regimes (marine, riverine and intermediate) in terms of relevance of local processes and exchanges with the open sea. Four key predictors are shown to play a major role: mean offshore sea level, 2 m air temperature, precipitation for the lagoon water temperature, integrated with offshore sea surface salinity for the lagoon water salinity. The development of the ANN is based on only 4 years of observations, taken irregularly over time with an approximately monthly frequency. Despite this, the ANN achieves an accurate reproduction of both variables with large R² and reasonably small, normalized root-mean-square errors at all stations, except for the salinity at the marine station, where the model presents a spurious variability, which is absent in observations. Sensitivity analysis shows that the 2 m air temperature is the dominant predictor for water temperature while sea-level and sea surface salinity are the principal predictor of salinity fluctuations, with precipitation exerting a relevant role mainly at the riverine station. The ANN has been used for a set of synthetic climate change analyses considering 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels with respect to preindustrial levels. An overall warming of lagoon water with maximum increase in summer is expected (up to 6 °C in the 3 °C global warming level), resulting in an amplification of the annual cycle amplitude. The expected increases in salinity have a strong gradient across the lagoon, are largest at the riverine station, and (analogously to the changes in temperature) amplify the salinity annual cycle amplitude. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Climate Change with Artificial Intelligence Methods)

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14 pages, 4438 KB

Open AccessArticle

Experiences in Developing a Decision Support Tool for Agricultural Decision-Makers—Australian CliMate

by David M. Freebairn and David McClymont

Climate 2025, 13(9), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090188 - 15 Sep 2025

Abstract

Australian agriculture managers deal with climates that are characterised by high variability and unpredictability. A simple framework for decision-making is used to structure weather-related inquiries using recent and long-term climate data to better inform decisions based on current conditions and future expectations. This [...] Read more.

Australian agriculture managers deal with climates that are characterised by high variability and unpredictability. A simple framework for decision-making is used to structure weather-related inquiries using recent and long-term climate data to better inform decisions based on current conditions and future expectations. This paper describes the rationale, design philosophy, and development journey of Australian CliMate (CliMate), a contemporary climate analysis tool built to consolidate and modernise the functionality of earlier computer-based decision support tools (DSTs). CliMate aimed to be simple, transparent, and user-driven, supporting tactical and strategic agricultural decisions. Ten core analyses were included from previous DSTs. With over 20,000 registered users and widespread adoption among farmers, consultants, and other professionals over a decade, CliMate demonstrates the enduring demand for accessible, mobile climate analysis tools. We reflect on lessons learned in the development process, advocating for minimalism, iteration with users, and integration of transparent data sources. This experience underscores the necessity for long-term support and evaluation to sustain the value of agricultural DSTs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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28 pages, 796 KB

Open AccessArticle

Establishment of Transboundary Partnerships in an International Climate Adaptation Project

by Fowzia Gulshana Rashid Lopa and Dan L. Johnson

Climate 2025, 13(9), 187; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090187 - 13 Sep 2025

Abstract

The transboundary partnership encourages multi-stakeholder efforts to mobilize adaptation funding and services for adaptation governance. However, challenges exist in scope, equality, and transparency when engaging these stakeholders. Few studies have examined the detailed coordination among multi-stakeholders and the performance of their partnerships, creating [...] Read more.

The transboundary partnership encourages multi-stakeholder efforts to mobilize adaptation funding and services for adaptation governance. However, challenges exist in scope, equality, and transparency when engaging these stakeholders. Few studies have examined the detailed coordination among multi-stakeholders and the performance of their partnerships, creating an opportunity to understand how multi-stakeholders contribute to and manage efforts for future adaptation projects. This study focused on a transboundary action research project on climate adaptation, analyzing the partnership structure, stakeholder arrangements, coordination scenarios, and the role of the partnership within it. It included interviews with project personnel and focus group discussions with community members at the project sites. The results showed that the project emphasized collaboration while maintaining both vertical and horizontal coordination. The donor maintained vertical coordination for monitoring but collaborated on budget adjustments, funding, identifying challenges, and developing strategies to improve the partnership. Partners continued horizontal coordination by sharing responsibilities and taking leadership roles in synthesizing research reports. Additionally, this project facilitated community participation in piloting the adaptation intervention. Although this partnership aimed to establish collaboration, it remains far from effectively liaising with national-level governments to maximize the benefits of adaptation technology. Future research should expand this scope to promote sustainable development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Development Pathways and Climate Actions)

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22 pages, 357 KB

Open AccessReview

Climate Constitutionalisation in Europe—After KlimaSeniorinnen and the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion

by Christina Eckes

Climate 2025, 13(9), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090186 - 11 Sep 2025

Abstract

Several European courts have vested mitigation obligations with a hierarchically higher legal rank than ordinary state action. They construe these obligations from human rights in combination with international commitments and climate science. This phenomenon is here called ‘climate constitutionalisation’. In addition, we see [...] Read more.

Several European courts have vested mitigation obligations with a hierarchically higher legal rank than ordinary state action. They construe these obligations from human rights in combination with international commitments and climate science. This phenomenon is here called ‘climate constitutionalisation’. In addition, we see an increasing escalation of climate cases to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and we now have the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Climate constitutionalisation in Europe is an incremental process of replication and reiteration. It can only be understood by studying the developing body of national case law in the context European and international law. Studying general emission reduction cases against states in Europe, this paper traces how non-enforceable legal norms, political commitments, and climate science are used to interpret binding and enforceable human rights norms. It reflects on the present and future consequences of the ECtHR’s decision in KlimaSeniorinnen and ICJ’s Advisory Opinion on climate obligations. The paper argues that Europe’s multilayered legal and judicial landscape strengthens climate constitutionalisation and herewith deepens the fault line between the judiciary and the elected institutions. Europe’s openness towards international law facilitates this process. The paper then offers tentative normative justifications for this process. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

19 pages, 8112 KB

Open AccessArticle

Are Internally Displaced People (IDP) Safe? A Geospatial Analysis of Climate Vulnerability for IDP Communities in Tacloban, Philippines

by Younsung Kim and Colin Chadduck

Climate 2025, 13(9), 185; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090185 - 9 Sep 2025

Abstract

Internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals forced to leave their homes due to conflicts or disasters without crossing international borders. Since 2008, weather-related extreme events—primarily storms and floods—have displaced more than 20 million people annually. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather intensifying, [...] Read more.

Internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals forced to leave their homes due to conflicts or disasters without crossing international borders. Since 2008, weather-related extreme events—primarily storms and floods—have displaced more than 20 million people annually. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather intensifying, the number of IDPs is projected to increase in the coming decades. In the Philippines, resettlement has emerged as a key climate adaptation strategy, with IDP camps established to reduce risks in highly vulnerable areas. Yet, it remains unclear whether these camps are actually located in regions of lower climate vulnerability. This study aims to examine the climate vulnerability of 17 IDP camps by considering physical and infrastructural dimensions to assess whether they are located in safer areas, and to suggest the development of urban forms that can improve community resilience and the living conditions of their populations. Results show significant variation in climate vulnerability, with Villa Diana scoring the lowest and Villa Sofia the highest. Using emergency response facilities as a proxy for social capital, we identified drivers of vulnerability: Villa Sofia faces heightened risks due to population density, flood exposure, and limited emergency facilities, while Villa Diana benefits from greater emergency capacity and abundant vegetation that reduces risk. Our findings provide a systematic framework for assessing climate vulnerability among IDPs and highlight the critical role of social capital in mitigating climate impacts for displaced populations in the Global South, where climate risk mapping and reliable data remain limited. Full article

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21 pages, 7053 KB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024)

by Gabriel I. Cotlier and Juan Carlos Jimenez

Climate 2025, 13(9), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090184 - 6 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates long-term changes in thermal comfort across the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas from 1940 to 2024, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis. We apply a dual analytical framework combining structural break detection to identify regime shifts [...] Read more.

This study investigates long-term changes in thermal comfort across the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas from 1940 to 2024, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis. We apply a dual analytical framework combining structural break detection to identify regime shifts and Sen’s slope estimation with confidence intervals to quantify monotonic trends. Results reveal pronounced seasonal asymmetries. Summer exhibits abrupt regime shifts in both regions: in 1980 for Italy (slope shifting from −0.039 °C/year before 1980 to +0.06 °C/year after) and 1978 for Iberia (from −0.054 °C/year to +0.050 °C/year). Winter, by contrast, shows no structural breaks but a persistent, spatially uniform warming trend of ~0.030–0.033 °C/year across the 1940–2024 period, consistent with a gradual erosion of cold stress. Transitional seasons display more nuanced responses. Spring reveals detectable breakpoints in 1987 for Italy (shifting from −0.028 °C/year to +0.027 °C/year) and 1986 for Iberia (from −0.047 °C/year to +0.024 °C/year), indicating the early acceleration of warming. Autumn shows a breakpoint in 1970 for Italy, with trends intensifying from +0.011 °C/year before to +0.052 °C/year after, while Iberia exhibits no clear breakpoint but a consistent positive slope. These findings highlight spring as an early-warning season, where warming acceleration first emerges, and autumn as a consolidating phase that extends summer-like heat into later months. Overall, the results demonstrate that Mediterranean thermal regimes evolve through both abrupt and gradual processes, with summer defined by non-linear regime shifts, winter by steady accumulation of warming, and spring and autumn by transitional dynamics that bridge these extremes. The methodological integration of breakpoint detection with Sen’s slope estimation provides a transferable framework for detecting climate regime transitions in other vulnerable regions under accelerated global warming. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records (Second Edition))

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19 pages, 6756 KB

Open AccessArticle

Future Meteorological Impact on Air Quality in the Po Valley

by Loris Colombo, Alessandro Marongiu, Giulia Malvestiti and Guido Giuseppe Lanzani

Climate 2025, 13(9), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090183 - 5 Sep 2025

Abstract

Air quality in the Po Valley (Northern Italy), one of Europe’s most polluted regions, remains a major concern due to its unfavorable orographic setting and intense anthropogenic emissions. Climate change may further hinder progress by modifying meteorological conditions that regulate pollutant dispersion and [...] Read more.

Air quality in the Po Valley (Northern Italy), one of Europe’s most polluted regions, remains a major concern due to its unfavorable orographic setting and intense anthropogenic emissions. Climate change may further hinder progress by modifying meteorological conditions that regulate pollutant dispersion and chemistry. This study applies a modeling framework combining regional climate simulations and chemical transport models to assess the climate penalty, i.e., the adverse impact of climate-driven meteorology on air quality independent of emissions. Three scenarios were analyzed: Baseline Reference Scenario (SRB) (2011–2015), Near-Future Medium Scenario (NF) (2028–2032), and Mid-Future Medium Scenario (2048–2052), with emissions held constant. A mitigation scenario (SC_MF_2050) under the Current Legislation was also tested to accomplish the new EU Ambient Air Quality Directive. Results show that PM₁₀ and NO₂ increase under future climates, mainly due to reduced wind speed and precipitation, enhancing pollutant accumulation. Multivariate analyses confirm the strong association between stagnant conditions and higher concentrations. Even with projected emission reductions, compliance with stricter EU targets may not be achieved everywhere. Climate penalty zones, especially in lowland and transport corridors, underscore the need to integrate climate resilience into air quality planning and adopt adaptive strategies for long-term effectiveness. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Meteorological Forecasting and Modeling in Climatology)

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21 pages, 3538 KB

Open AccessArticle

Reconstruction of Water Storage Variability in the Aral Sea Region

by Nikita Murzintcev, Sahibjamal Nietullaeva, Timur Berdimbetov, Buddhi Pushpawela, Asiya Tureniyazova, Sherly Shelton, Bakbergen Aytmuratov, Khusen Gafforov, Kanat Parakhatov, Alimjan Erdashov, Abdul-Aziz Makhamatdinov and Timur Allamuratov

Climate 2025, 13(9), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090182 - 29 Aug 2025

Abstract

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, operational from 2002 to 2017, provided critical measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies which have been extensively used to study groundwater and terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics. In this research, we utilize GRACE data to [...] Read more.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, operational from 2002 to 2017, provided critical measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies which have been extensively used to study groundwater and terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics. In this research, we utilize GRACE data to identify, model, and analyze potential climate parameters contributing to the reconstruction of TWS variability in the Aral Sea Basin region (ASB). We assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic nature management on TWS change using a quantitative method. Our analysis reveals a significant decline in the TWS at a rate of 0.44 cm year⁻¹ during the 2005–2009 period, primarily attributed to the prevailing drought conditions in the region. Notably, the estimated impact of anthropogenic influence on TWS during the same period of −1.39 cm year⁻¹ is higher than the influence of climatic variables, indicating that anthropogenic activity was the dominant factor in water resource depletion. In contrast, we observed an increase in TWS at a rate of 0.82 cm year⁻¹ during the 2013–2017 period, which can be attributed to the implementation of more effective water resource management practices in the ASB. Full article

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30 pages, 68660 KB

Open AccessArticle

Optimizing WRF Configurations for Improved Precipitation Forecasting in West Africa: Sensitivity to Cumulus and PBL Schemes in a Senegal Case Study

by Abdou Aziz Coly, Emmanuel Dazangwende Poan, Youssouph Sane, Habib Senghor, Semou Diouf, Ousmane Ndiaye, Abdoulaye Deme and Dame Gueye

Climate 2025, 13(9), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090181 - 29 Aug 2025

Abstract

Despite significant progress, precipitation forecasting in West Africa remains challenging due to the complexity of atmospheric processes and the region’s climatic variability. This study aims to identify optimal configurations of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting. To evaluate the sensitivity of the [...] Read more.

Despite significant progress, precipitation forecasting in West Africa remains challenging due to the complexity of atmospheric processes and the region’s climatic variability. This study aims to identify optimal configurations of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting. To evaluate the sensitivity of the model’s physical parameterizations, 15 configurations were tested by combining various cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. The analysis examines two contrasting rainfall events in Senegal: one characterized by widespread intense precipitation and another featuring localized moderate rainfall. Simulated rainfall, temperature, and humidity were validated against rain gauges, satellite products (ENACTS, ARC, CHIRPS, and IMERG), and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that the WRF configurations achieve correlation coefficients (r) ranging from 0.27 to 0.62 against ENACTS and from 0.15 to 0.41 against rain gauges. The sensitivity analysis reveals that PBL schemes primarily influence temperature and humidity, while CPSs significantly affect precipitation. For the heavy rainfall event, several configurations accurately captured the observed patterns, particularly those using Tiedtke or Grell–Devenyi CPSs coupled with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) PBL. However, the model showed limited skill in simulating localized convection during the moderate rainfall event. These findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate parameterizations to enhance WRF-based precipitation forecasting, especially for extreme weather events in West Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Meteorological Forecasting and Modeling in Climatology)

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21 pages, 1050 KB

Open AccessReview

The Perceptions of Rural Australians Concerning the Health Impacts of Extreme Weather Events: A Scoping Review

by Emily Vohralik, Jonathan Mond, I. Nyoman Sutarsa, Sally Hall Dykgraaf, Breanna Humber and Sari Dewi

Climate 2025, 13(9), 180; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090180 - 28 Aug 2025

Abstract

Understanding rural communities’ perceptions of the health impacts of extreme weather is vital for strengthening community resilience and adaptation strategies. This paper aimed to collate existing evidence on the perceptions of rural Australians regarding the health impacts of extreme weather events. A scoping [...] Read more.

Understanding rural communities’ perceptions of the health impacts of extreme weather is vital for strengthening community resilience and adaptation strategies. This paper aimed to collate existing evidence on the perceptions of rural Australians regarding the health impacts of extreme weather events. A scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines was conducted. Peer-reviewed empirical articles published up to 7 May 2025 were identified from Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science. One author undertook two-step screening and data extraction, which was checked by another author, and data were analysed using a thematic approach. Of 242 non-duplicate articles screened, 34 were included, which discussed drought (n = 14), bushfire (n = 8), flood (n = 6), extreme heat (n = 4) or a combination of events (n = 2). Two main themes arose: (1) perceived severity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events; and (2) perceptions of health impacts. The second theme comprised six subthemes: mental health risks, social disconnectedness, disrupted connection to land, distress due to uncertainties, community resilience, and disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups. Evidence gaps included a lack of perspectives separated by gender and age and a shortage of voices of socio-economically disadvantaged groups. Future research should investigate how to understand rural communities’ resilience to develop targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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20 pages, 4828 KB

Open AccessArticle

Barley, Canola and Spring Wheat Yield Throughout the Canadian Prairies Under the Effect of Climate Change

by Mohammad Zare, David Sauchyn and Zahra Noorisameleh

Climate 2025, 13(9), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090179 - 28 Aug 2025

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have significant effects on crop yield in the Canadian Prairies. The objective of this study was to investigate these possible effects on spring wheat, barley and canola production using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) modelling [...] Read more.

Climate change is expected to have significant effects on crop yield in the Canadian Prairies. The objective of this study was to investigate these possible effects on spring wheat, barley and canola production using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) modelling platform. We applied 21 climate change scenarios from high-resolution (0.22°) regional simulations to three modules, DSSAT-CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-CERES-Barley and CSM-CROPGRO-Canola, using a historical baseline period (1985–2014) and three future periods: near (2015–2040), middle (2041–2070), and far (2071–2100). These simulations are part of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and have been processed using statistical downscaling and bias correction by the NASA Earth Exchange 26 Global Daily Downscaled Projections project, referred to as NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. The calibration and validation results surpassed the thresholds for a high level of accuracy. Simulated yield changes indicate that climate change has a positive effect on spring wheat and barley yields with median model increases of 7% and 11.6% in the near future, and 5.5% and 9.2% in the middle future, respectively. However, in the far future, barley production shows a modest increase of 4.4%, while spring wheat yields decline significantly by 17%. Conversely, simulated canola yields demonstrate a substantial decrease over time, with reductions of 25.9%, 46.3%, and 62.8% from the near to the far future, respectively. Agroclimatic indices, such as Number of Frost-Free Days (NFFD), Heating Degree-Days (HDD), Length of Growing Season (GSL), Crop Heat Units (CHU), and Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD), exhibit significant correlations with spring wheat. Conversely, precipitation indices, such as very wet days and annual 5- and 10-day maximum precipitation, have a stronger correlation with canola yield changes when compared with temperature indices. The results provide key guidance for policymakers to design adaptation strategies and sustain regional food security and economic resilience, particularly for canola production, which is at significant risk under projected climate change scenarios across the Canadian Prairies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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42 pages, 1695 KB

Open AccessArticle

Optimizing Policies and Regulations for Zero Routine Gas Flaring and Net Zero

by Godwin O. Aigbe, Lindsay C. Stringer and Matthew Cotton

Climate 2025, 13(9), 178; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090178 - 28 Aug 2025

Abstract

Global policy actions to reduce the environmental and social impacts of natural gas flaring are primarily derived from voluntary arrangements. This paper evaluates stakeholder preferences amongst competing policies and regulatory options, optimizing environmental governance to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030 and achieve [...] Read more.

Global policy actions to reduce the environmental and social impacts of natural gas flaring are primarily derived from voluntary arrangements. This paper evaluates stakeholder preferences amongst competing policies and regulatory options, optimizing environmental governance to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030 and achieve net-zero greenhouse emissions by 2050, whilst addressing questions of justice and fair implementation. Using a mixed-methods social scientific approach, incorporating literature and document review, interviews, expert surveys, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (G-TOPSIS), we derive two competing perspectives on gas flaring policy strategy, with differences revealed through the AHP ranking process of individual criteria. All identified criteria and sub-criteria were integral to achieving the flaring and emissions targets, with “policy and targets” and “enabling framework” being the most important individual criteria. The “background and the role of reductions in meeting environmental and economic objectives” and ‘’nonmonetary penalties” were the key emergent sub-criteria. G-TOPSIS showed that fully implementing gas flaring policies and regulatory framework criteria to limit warming to 1.5 °C is the most effective policy alternative. Globally coordinated, uniform, and reciprocal legally binding agreements between countries to supplement national initiatives are imperative for improving the effectiveness of country-specific gas flaring policy strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Energy, Environment and Climate Policy Analysis)

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18 pages, 4915 KB

Open AccessArticle

Snowmelt Streamflow Trends over Colorado (U.S.A.) Mountain Watersheds

by Steven R. Fassnacht and Anna K. D. Pfohl

Climate 2025, 13(9), 177; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090177 - 28 Aug 2025

Abstract

Streamflow generated from snowmelt is important, and changing, in snow dominated regions of the world. We used a recently developed technique to estimate the start and end of snowmelt streamflow for 39 gauging stations across Colorado and determined the 40-year trends from 1981 [...] Read more.

Streamflow generated from snowmelt is important, and changing, in snow dominated regions of the world. We used a recently developed technique to estimate the start and end of snowmelt streamflow for 39 gauging stations across Colorado and determined the 40-year trends from 1981 to 2020. Most watersheds showed a trend towards an earlier start (34 watersheds) or end (29 watersheds) of snowmelt streamflow, but the mean of the start and end dates showed mixed trends (earlier in 12 watersheds and later in 20). We determined the correlation between these streamflow snowmelt trends and terrain parameters plus trends in canopy cover, winter precipitation, peak snow water equivalent, and melt-period temperature. There were some significant correlations, primarily for total annual streamflow and the timing and volume of the end of snowmelt streamflow contribution to winter precipitation (decreasing), minimum temperature (warming), and slope (negatively). Higher elevation watersheds tend to be steeper, less snow has been observed at higher elevations, and the snowpack is melting sooner. Snowmelt streamflow trends are partially explained by climate trends and watershed characteristics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes)

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52 pages, 8373 KB

Open AccessArticle

Trends in Atmospheric Emissions in Central Asian Countries Since 1990 in the Context of Regional Development

by Saken Kozhagulov, Ainagul Adambekova, Jose Carlos Quadrado, Vitaliy Salnikov, Aina Rysmagambetova and Ainur Tanybayeva

Climate 2025, 13(9), 176; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090176 - 27 Aug 2025

Abstract

In Central Asian countries (CACs) atmosphere pollution is increasing due to population growth, economic growth, agricultural development, energy consumption and climate change. The countries of the region developed climate change adaptation strategies—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [...] Read more.

In Central Asian countries (CACs) atmosphere pollution is increasing due to population growth, economic growth, agricultural development, energy consumption and climate change. The countries of the region developed climate change adaptation strategies—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At the same time, regional integration, which should be a necessary condition for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the solving of general environmental problems, is not involved. This article shows the importance of a comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere for the entire Central Asian region as a single ecosystem. The energy intensity of national economies structure was chosen as the main factor determining the level of pollution. The analysis shows that over the past 30 years, the main part of the commodity exports (73.6–81.4%) of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan has been fossil natural resources. There is a strong economic dependence on coal and other types of fuel, which leads to atmospheric emissions. The analysis shows that limited financial resources, lack of effective systemic monitoring and control of air quality that meets modern international requirements and standards, leads to absence of tangible changes in practice yet. Over 30 years in CACs, the share of CO₂ emissions associated with fuel combustion has not decreased and amounts to 78%. The key mechanisms for reducing atmospheric emissions are significantly increase investments in the transformation of the economies in the context of regional development, interstate cooperation, the introduction of environmental norms, standards harmonized with world ones, green technologies based on alternative energy, sustainable transport and logistics infrastructure. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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24 pages, 4982 KB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change in the Porto Region (Northern Portugal): A 148 Years Study of Temperature and Precipitation Trends (1863–2010)

by Leonel J. R. Nunes

Climate 2025, 13(9), 175; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090175 - 27 Aug 2025

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of climate evolution in the Porto region (Northern Portugal) using 148 years (1863–2010) of continuous meteorological data from the Serra do Pilar weather station (WMO station 08546). The research employs both traditional linear statistical methods and advanced [...] Read more.

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of climate evolution in the Porto region (Northern Portugal) using 148 years (1863–2010) of continuous meteorological data from the Serra do Pilar weather station (WMO station 08546). The research employs both traditional linear statistical methods and advanced non-linear analysis techniques, including polynomial trend fitting and multidecadal oscillation analysis, to accurately characterize long-term climate patterns. Results reveal that linear trend analysis is misleading for this dataset, as both temperature and precipitation follow parabolic (U-shaped) distributions with minima around 1910–1970. The early period (1863–1900) exhibited higher values than the recent period, contradicting linear trend interpretations. Advanced analysis shows that the mean temperature follows a parabolic pattern (R² = 0.353) with the minimum around 1935, while precipitation exhibits similar behavior (R² = 0.053) with the minimum around 1936. Multidecadal oscillations are detected with dominant periods of 46.7, 15.6, and 10.0 years for temperature, and 35.0, 17.5, and 4.5 years for precipitation. Maximum temperatures show complex oscillatory behavior with a severe drop around 1890. Seasonal analysis reveals distinct patterns across all seasons: winter (+0.065 °C/decade) and autumn (+0.059 °C/decade) show warming trends in maximum temperatures, while spring (−0.080 °C/decade) and summer (−0.079 °C/decade) demonstrate cooling trends in minimum temperatures, with no significant trends in spring (+0.012 °C/decade) and summer (+0.003 °C/decade) maximum temperatures or winter (−0.021 °C/decade) and autumn (−0.035 °C/decade) minimum temperatures. The study identifies a significant change point in mean temperature around 1980, which occurs approximately one decade earlier than the global warming acceleration typically observed in the 1990s, suggesting regional Atlantic influences may precede global patterns. Extreme event analysis indicates stable frequencies of hot days (averaging 3.6 days/year above 25.0 °C) and heavy precipitation events (averaging 1.2 days/year above 234.6 mm) throughout the study period. These findings demonstrate that the Porto region’s climate is characterized by natural multidecadal variability rather than monotonic trends, with the climate system showing oscillatory behavior typical of Atlantic-influenced coastal regions. The results contribute to understanding regional climate variability and provide essential baseline data for climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Portugal. The results align with broader patterns of natural climate variability in the Iberian Peninsula while highlighting the importance of non-linear analysis for comprehensive climate assessment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records (Second Edition))

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19 pages, 1824 KB

Open AccessArticle

How Climate Ambition and Technology Choices Shape Water Use in the Power Generation Sector

by Panagiotis Fragkos, Eleftheria Zisarou and Kristina Govorukha

Climate 2025, 13(9), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090174 - 27 Aug 2025

Abstract

The power generation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a significant consumer of freshwater, due to the extensive water use in cooling processes of thermoelectric power plants. While net-zero strategies increasingly focus on eliminating emissions to mitigate [...] Read more.

The power generation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a significant consumer of freshwater, due to the extensive water use in cooling processes of thermoelectric power plants. While net-zero strategies increasingly focus on eliminating emissions to mitigate climate change, the critical role of water as a key sustainability resource remains underexplored and often underrepresented in mitigation scenarios, strategies, and policy frameworks. This study examines the impact of power sector decarbonization on global and regional electricity-related water demand under two climate ambition scenarios: continuation of current climate policies (CP) and a net-zero emission (NZ) scenario where countries implement their net-zero pledges by 2050 or later. Using the PROMETHEUS energy system model, we quantify how different climate ambitions could affect global and regional water demand, considering different levels of cooling technology evolution. Results show that water demand is not only driven by how much energy is produced but by the technology mix used to generate electricity. The findings highlight the significant co-benefits of power sector decarbonization for reducing water needs and ensuring freshwater resource sustainability, underscoring the importance of integrating water management into climate policy frameworks. This integrated perspective is critical for policymakers, energy system planners, and water resource managers aiming to balance ambitious climate goals with sustainable water use amid growing climate and resource challenges. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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26 pages, 4753 KB

Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Climate Trends in Southern Angola and Possible Implications in Agriculture

by Carlos D. N. Correia, André Fonseca, Malik Amraoui, Carlos A. Pereira and João A. Santos

Climate 2025, 13(9), 173; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090173 - 26 Aug 2025

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant challenge to agriculture in southern Angola, particularly for smallholder farming systems that are highly exposed and vulnerable, lacking the resources and capacity to respond effectively. This study analyses climate trends from 1950 to 2024 in Huíla, Namibe, and [...] Read more.

Climate change poses a significant challenge to agriculture in southern Angola, particularly for smallholder farming systems that are highly exposed and vulnerable, lacking the resources and capacity to respond effectively. This study analyses climate trends from 1950 to 2024 in Huíla, Namibe, and Cunene, focusing on eight variables: Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, PRCPTOT, R95p, R95pTOT, CDD, and CWD. Due to inconsistencies in local meteorological station data, ERA5-Land reanalysis was used. Trends such as rising Tmin in Namibe (+0.32 °C/decade), Tmean in Huíla (+0.16 °C/decade), and increased precipitation in Huíla (+29.3 mm/decade), along with fewer dry days in Namibe (–2.7 days/decade), were observed. Crop–climate relationships (2000–2023) were explored using a categorical contingency analysis. Maize showed its highest yield frequency (46%) during hot years; cassava and beans were more stable under cooler, drier conditions; millet yielded above average (31%) in dry years, confirming drought resilience; potatoes performed poorly in wet years (17% above-average yields). The contingency method provided insights where linear models were insufficient, helping to understand climate–yield interactions in data-limited environments. This study offers the first long-term climate–agriculture assessment for southern Angola, providing critical evidence for climate-informed agricultural strategies in regions with scarce and unreliable observational records. The findings emphasise the urgent need for adaptation policies focused on crop-specific climate vulnerabilities. They also demonstrate the value of combining reanalysis data and categorical analysis to overcome data gaps and guide sustainable agricultural planning. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales (2nd Edition))

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