The contemporary agricultural market is profoundly volatile, where agricultural prices are based on a complex supply chain, climatic irregularity or unscheduled market demand. Prices of crops need to be predicted in a reliable and timely manner for farmers, policy-makers and other stakeholders to
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The contemporary agricultural market is profoundly volatile, where agricultural prices are based on a complex supply chain, climatic irregularity or unscheduled market demand. Prices of crops need to be predicted in a reliable and timely manner for farmers, policy-makers and other stakeholders to take evidence-based decisions ultimately for the benefit towards sustainable agriculture and economic sustainability.
Objective: The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate a comprehensive machine learning model for predicting agricultural prices incorporating logistic, economic and environmental considerations. It is the desire to make agriculture more profitable by building simple and accurate forecasting models.
Methods: An assorted dataset was collected, which covers major factors to constitute the dataset of temperature, rainfall, fertiliser use, pest and disease attack level, cost of transportation, market demand-supply ratio and regional competitiveness. The data was subjected to pre-processing and feature extraction for quality control/quality assurance. Several machine learning models (Linear Regression, Support Vector Machines, AdaBoost, Random Forest, and XGBoost) were trained and evaluated using performance metrics such as R2 score, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
Results: Out of the model approaches that were analysed, predictive performance was superior for XGBoost (with an R2 Score of 0.94, RMSE of 12.8 and MAE of 8.6). To generate accurate predictions, the ability to account for complex non-linear relationships between market and environmental information was necessary.
Conclusions: The forecast model of the XGBoost-based prediction system is reliable, of low complexity and widely applicable to large-scale real-time forecasting of agricultural monitoring. The model substantially reduces the uncertainty of price forecasting, and does so by including multivariate environmental and economic aspects that permit more profitable management practices in a schedule for future sustainable agriculture.
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