Tortrix viridana (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) (TV) is a serious pest of oaks in the West-Palearctic. In Ukraine in the 50–70s of the 20th century, the area of TV outbreaks reached 140–180 thousand hectares. Since the late 1...
Extreme weather events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs), pose serious threats to the aquaculture sector, facilitating the occurrence of disease outbreaks and compromising farmed animals’ welfare and survival. Hence, finding eco-innovative strat...
Four fundamental models that describe the spread of Monkeypox disease are analyzed: the SIR-SIR, SEIR-SIR, SIR-SEIR, and SEIR-SEIR models. They form the basis of most Monkeypox diseases models that are currently discussed in the literature. It is sho...
Background: Identifying infants with congenital infection for early intervention will likely be challenging in future Zika virus outbreaks. We investigated indicators of risk for developmental delay among children born with and without obvious manife...
12 June 2019
The utility of agglomerative clustering methods for understanding dynamic systems that do not have a well-defined periodic structure has not yet been explored. We propose using this approach to examine the association between disease and weather para...
This paper presents a detailed investigation of a stochastic model that rules the spreading behavior of the measles virus while accounting for the white noises and the influence of immunizations. It is hypothesized that the perturbations of the model...
The feasibility of risk assessment of a Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) outbreak was analyzed by means of landscape and weather characteristics and tree condition parameters. Difficulties in detecting forest pest outbreaks (especi...
This study analyzed the relationship between characteristics of annual tree ring time series and the intensity of attacks on forest stands by forest insects. Using tenets of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (which is widely used in physics),...
Ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and the number of new patients continues to increase. Even though it began to spread to many other parts of the world, such as other Asian c...
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a virulent disease most commonly found in East and Southeast Asia. Symptoms include ulcers or sores, inside or around the mouth. In this research, we formulate the dynamic model of HFMD by using the SEIQR model....
COVID-19 is the name of the new infectious disease which has reached the pandemic stage and is named after the coronavirus (COVs) which causes it. COV is a single-stranded RNA virus which in humans leads to respiratory tract symptoms which can lead t...
Three models of abundance dynamics for forest insects that depict the development of outbreak populations were analyzed. We studied populations of the Siberian silkmoth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. in Siberia and the Far East of Russia, as well as...
In January 2025, a measles outbreak was reported in Gaines County, Texas, and subsequently spread to other counties and states. However, investigations into the geographic spread of this outbreak remain limited. We developed a measles transmission mo...
During the growth of a forest insect outbreak epicenter, there are processes that involve the formation and expansion of the primary epicenter of forest damage, as well as secondary epicenters—both connected and unconnected to the primary one....
In this paper, a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is developed and analyzed to explore the dynamics of cholera. The multitype branching process is used to compute a stochastic threshold for the CTMC model. Latin hypercube sampling...
Based on the data from a French outbreak of legionellosis, a probabilistic approach was developed to analyze and assess the potential role of several suspected sources of contamination. Potential dates of exposure of all cases were determined using b...
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a serious concern for both poultry and human health. Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza viruses; however, relatively little is known about their movement...
Some deterministic models deal with environmental conditions and use parameter estimations to obtain experimental parameters, but they do not consider anthropogenic or environmental disturbances, e.g., chemical control or climatic conditions. Even mo...
In this paper, we would like to propose a (2+1)-dimensional fractional-order epidemic model with pulse jumps to describe the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The problem of identifying the involved parameters in the proposed model is reduce...
Epidemic outbreak control often involves a spatially explicit treatment area (quarantine, inoculation, ring cull) that covers the outbreak area and adjacent regions where hosts are thought to be latently infected. Emphasis on space however neglects t...
Epidemiological models play a vital role in understanding the spread and severity of a pandemic of infectious disease, such as the COVID-19 global pandemic. The mathematical modeling of infectious diseases in the form of compartmental models are ofte...
Risk factors related to external biosecurity have been considered to play a major role in the introduction and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig populations. The aim of the study was to describe the biosecurity levels and management...
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cum...
29 August 2023
Waterspout outbreaks are very impressive phenomena defined as multiple waterspouts successively forming in a specific area. This study presents the twelve largest waterspout outbreak cases that have occurred in the last two decades (2000–May 20...
The 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a...
The calculation of the probability of a minor outbreak is crucial in analyzing a stochastic epidemic model. For stochastic epidemic models with fixed delays, the linear chain trick is applied to transform the delayed models into a family of ODE model...
Tenacibaculum are frequently detected from fish with tenacibaculosis at aquaculture sites; however, information on the ecology of these bacteria is sparse. Quantitative-PCR assays were used to detect T. maritimum and T. dicentrarchi at commercial Atl...
Background: Monkeypox (Mpox) is a re-emerging zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Transmission occurs primarily through direct contact with lesions or contaminated materials, with sexual transmission playing a significant role in r...
Water ecosystems can be rather sensitive to evolving or sudden changes in weather parameters. These changes can result in alterations in the natural habitat of pathogens, vectors, and human hosts, as well as in the transmission dynamics and geographi...
Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the Leishmania parasite and transmitted by the Phlebotominae subfamily of sandflies, which infects humans and other mammals. Clinical manifestations of the disease include cutaneous leishmaniasi...
The Ulva prolifera green tide in the South Yellow Sea has erupted annually for many years, posing significant threats to coastal ecology, the economy, and society. While environmental factors are widely acknowledged as prerequisites for these outbrea...
24 August 2020
South Korea has learned a valuable lesson from the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus outbreak in 2015. The 2015 MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea was the largest outbreak outside the Middle Eastern countries and was characterized as a noso...
We present a robust, data-efficient framework for early outbreak assessment using multiscale analysis and Computational Singular Perturbation (CSP). This framework overcomes the shortcomings of the standard compartmental epidemiological models, which...
During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actiona...
Obtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectory degeneracy, as different...
We piloted a methodology for collecting and interpreting root cause—or environmental deficiency (ED)—information from Legionnaires’ disease (LD) outbreak investigation reports. The methodology included a classification framework to...
Phylodynamic inference is a pivotal tool in understanding transmission dynamics of viral outbreaks. These analyses are strongly guided by the input of an epidemiological model as well as sequence data that must contain sufficient intersequence variab...
Reaction networks are important tools for modeling a variety of biological phenomena across a wide range of scales, for example as models of gene regulation within a cell or infectious disease outbreaks in a population. Hence, calibrating these model...
This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the S...
Environmental transmission is a critical driver of cholera dynamics and a key factor influencing model-based inference and forecasting. This study focuses on stable parameter estimation and forecasting of cholera outbreaks using a compartmental SIRB...
This study aimed to simulate the impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in Austria. ASF is one of the most significant and critical diseases for the global domestic pig population. Hence, the authors evaluated control strategies and identifi...
23 March 2022
This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and close contacts during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia (23 January 2020 to 26 February 2020), and to analyse the reasons why the outbreak did not continue to spread and less...
In this paper, we present a mathematical model,
25 May 2020
Nowadays, an infectious disease outbreak is considered one of the most destructive effects in the sustainable development process. The outbreak of new coronavirus (COVID-19) as an infectious disease showed that it has undesirable social, environmenta...
Capturing the factors influencing yellow fever (YF) outbreaks is essential for effective public health interventions, especially in regions like Nigeria, where the disease poses significant health risks. This study explores the synergistic effects of...
Despite having been studied for more than 40 years, much about the basic life history of crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) remains poorly understood. Size at age—a key metric of productivity for any animal population—has yet to be cle...
For effective ultrasonic algae removal, several studies have considered the ultrasound equipment linked factors, such as power and frequency. However, studies on the response of mixed algal cultures and associated water quality parameters to ultrasou...
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) poses a severe threat to public health officials all around the world. The early COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. The number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in...
In this study, methods are proposed for analyzing the susceptibility of forest stands to attacks by forest insects on the basis of Earth remote sensing data. As an indicator of the state of forest stands, we proposed to use a parameter of the sensiti...
Modeling the windborne transmission of aerosolized pathogens is challenging. We adapted an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) to simulate the windborne dispersion of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) between swine farms. Thi...
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