Next Article in Journal
Correction: Association between Gait Deviation Index and Physical Function in Children with Bilateral Spastic Cerebral Palsy: A Cross-Sectional Study. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 28
Next Article in Special Issue
Characteristics of and Public Health Responses to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak in China
Previous Article in Journal
Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Predict Survival in Kidney Transplantation: A Review
Previous Article in Special Issue
Incubation Period and Other Epidemiological Characteristics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Infections with Right Truncation: A Statistical Analysis of Publicly Available Case Data
Open AccessArticle

Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China

Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Hungary
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(2), 571; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020571
Received: 5 February 2020 / Revised: 13 February 2020 / Accepted: 14 February 2020 / Published: 19 February 2020
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing. View Full-Text
Keywords: novel coronavirus; transmission; risk assessment; interventions; travel; outbreak; COVID-19; compartmental model; branching process novel coronavirus; transmission; risk assessment; interventions; travel; outbreak; COVID-19; compartmental model; branching process
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Boldog, P.; Tekeli, T.; Vizi, Z.; Dénes, A.; Bartha, F.A.; Röst, G. Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 571.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop