Special Issue "Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)"

A special issue of International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (ISSN 1660-4601). This special issue belongs to the section "Environmental Health".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 28 February 2021.

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Hyojung Lee
Website
Guest Editor
Busan Center for Medical Mathematics (BCMM), National Institute for Mathematical Sciences (NIMS), Busan, Korea
Interests: mathematical modeling for infectious disease; transmission dynamics of epidemics; stochastic modeling and simulation
Dr. Sunmi Lee
Website
Assistant Guest Editor
Department of applied mathematics, Kyung Hee university, Yongin 17104, Korea
Interests: mathematical modeling and numerical simulations of epidemiological systems with an emphasis on the use of optimal control theory, and computational stochastic modeling using agent-based models and network models in infectious diseases transmission dynamics
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Dr. Jong-Hoon Kim
Website
Assistant Guest Editor
International Vaccine Institute (IVI), Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-722, Korea
Interests: modeling infection transmission; vaccine impact evaluation; disease control policy making

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

An outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The respiratory disease has spread rapidly nationwide and became an emergency of major international concern. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020, representing a global health emergency. This Special Issue solicits papers that help us understand the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Papers that discuss the topics below are particularly welcome:

(1) Estimating key epidemiological variables of COVID-19 such as such as basic reproduction number (R0), serial interval, incubation period, and case fatality ratio. The epidemiological characteristics need to be elucidated for better understanding of the COVID-19 outbreak.

(2) Investigating the biological and clinical characteristics of previous major outbreaks of coronavirus including the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003 and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection outbreaks compared to the COVID-19 outbreak.

(3) Quantifying the impact of interventions aimed at containing or mitigating the epidemic, such as rapid diagnosis, social distancing, and school closures.

We welcome both solicited and unsolicited submissions of high-quality research and review papers for this Special Issue. Thank you for your interest in and support of this Special Issue.

Dr. Hyojung Lee
Dr. Sunmi Lee
Dr. Jong-Hoon Kim
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2300 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Infectious disease
  • Transmission
  • Basic reproduction number
  • Effective reproduction number
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Interventions

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

Open AccessArticle
Evaluating Transmission Heterogeneity and Super-Spreading Event of COVID-19 in a Metropolis of China
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(10), 3705; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103705 - 24 May 2020
Abstract
COVID-19 caused rapid mass infection worldwide. Understanding its transmission characteristics, including heterogeneity and the emergence of super spreading events (SSEs) where certain individuals infect large numbers of secondary cases, is of vital importance for prediction and intervention of future epidemics. Here, we collected [...] Read more.
COVID-19 caused rapid mass infection worldwide. Understanding its transmission characteristics, including heterogeneity and the emergence of super spreading events (SSEs) where certain individuals infect large numbers of secondary cases, is of vital importance for prediction and intervention of future epidemics. Here, we collected information of all infected cases (135 cases) between 21 January and 26 February 2020 from official public sources in Tianjin, a metropolis of China, and grouped them into 43 transmission chains with the largest chain of 45 cases and the longest chain of four generations. Utilizing a heterogeneous transmission model based on branching process along with a negative binomial offspring distribution, we estimated the reproductive number R and the dispersion parameter k (lower value indicating higher heterogeneity) to be 0.67 (95% CI: 0.54–0.84) and 0.25 (95% CI: 0.13–0.88), respectively. A super-spreader causing six infections was identified in Tianjin. In addition, our simulation allowing for heterogeneity showed that the outbreak in Tianjin would have caused 165 infections and sustained for 7.56 generations on average if no control measures had been taken by local government since 28 January. Our results highlighted more efforts are needed to verify the transmission heterogeneity of COVID-19 in other populations and its contributing factors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19))
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