Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. MERS-CoV Data
2.1. Data Sources
2.2. Superspreading Events
2.3. Nosocomial Infections
3. Branching Process Models
- Branching process model 1 (BP1)
- Branching process model 2 (BP2)
- Lloyd-Smith (LS) branching process model
4. Numerical Results
4.1. Parameter Estimation
4.2. The Effect of Control Measures
5. Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
BP | Branching process |
LS | Lloyd-Smith et al. |
MERS-CoV | Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus |
SARS | Severe acute respiratory syndrome |
SSE | Superspreading event |
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# 1 | # 14 | # 15 | # 16 | # 76 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age (years) | 68 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 75 |
Gender | Male | Male | Male | Male | Female |
Number of secondary infections | 28 | 79 | 6 | 23 | 11 |
Number of contacts | 626 | 594 | 304 | 277 | 805 |
Exposed hospitals | — | A | A | A | B |
Number of hospitals visited | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Duration of exposure | April 29–May 2 | May 15–17 | May 15–17 | May 15–17 | May 27–28 |
Underlying disease | Hypertension | — | Liver failure | Pancreatitis | Multiple myeloma |
Parameter | N | Mean (95% CI) | k (95% CI) | Pr (Extinct) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Value | 167 | 0.96 (0.6915, 1.2285) | 0.063 (0.0451, 0.0809) | 0.99 |
Value | 186 | 1.0 (0.7720, 1.3480) | 0.12 (0.1008, 0.1392) | 0.98 |
BP1 | BP2 | LS | MERS-CoV Data | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Outbreak size | 41.19 | 59.22 | 140.06 | 186 |
Generations | 8.47 | 7.25 | 4.37 | 4 |
Number of secondary infections of the index case | 12 | 14 | 102 | 79 |
Peak size | 4.06 | 5.77 | 17.13 | 19 |
Peak generation | 4.41 | 4.02 | 2.67 | 3 |
Extinction probability | 0.99 | 1 | 0.99 | — |
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Choe, S.; Kim, H.-S.; Lee, S. Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6137. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176137
Choe S, Kim H-S, Lee S. Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6137. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176137
Chicago/Turabian StyleChoe, Seoyun, Hee-Sung Kim, and Sunmi Lee. 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6137. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176137