Search Results (242)

Offshore wind development in the Binh Thuan–Phu Quy offshore domain requires regional, multi-variable preliminary metocean screening that extends beyond wind-resource mapping alone. This study presents a 32-year integrated wind–wave–bathymetry screening of four representative offshore wind sites in the Binh Thuan–Phu Quy offshore domain, Vietnam, using hourly ERA5 reanalysis data (1993–2024) and GEBCO 2025 bathymetry. The sites span four water-depth classes: shallow nearshore (BT01, 27 m), bottom-fixed (BT02, 49 m), transitional (BT03, 81 m), and floating-suitable (BT04, 161 m). For the IEA Wind 15 MW reference turbine at 150 m hub height, mean wind speed increases from 7.71 m s⁻¹ at BT01 to 9.75 m s⁻¹ at BT04, gross single-turbine capacity factor from 46.7% to 62.2%, and gross annual energy production from 61.4 to 81.7 GWh yr⁻¹. Along the selected BT01–BT04 sequence, mean significant wave height increases from 1.06 m to 1.49 m, with P95 $H_{\mathrm{s}}$ rising from 2.15 to 3.27 m. The northeast monsoon (November–March) dominates both wind and wave energy at all sites, whereas the mildest sea states occur during the April–May transition months. These conditions identify April–May as having the lowest monthly mean sea states; monthly means alone do not define operational weather windows. Interannual variability of annual gross capacity factor is moderate, with coefficients of variation of 9.8–10.2%. The integrated screening matrix shows that wind resource, energy yield, water depth, and wave exposure increase together along the selected four-site sequence, without implying a causal depth relationship or a domain-wide trend: the highest-yield site requires a floating substructure under the most exposed conditions, whereas the most benign site yields the least energy. All reported values are gross, reanalysis-based screening indicators rather than bankable resource estimates. From a sustainability perspective, the framework supports balanced early-stage planning by considering energy yield together with depth and marine exposure, while its open, long-term datasets provide reproducible, comparatively low-cost decision support for data-scarce emerging offshore wind markets. It does not quantify lifecycle, ecological, social, or economic sustainability. Full article

Mediterranean coastal regions are increasingly affected by hydrometeorological hazards associated with high-impact weather events, including cyclones. Between 18 and 21 January 2026, the intense extratropical cyclone Harry affected Sicily, Sardinia, and Calabria, producing severe weather conditions including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and extreme wave activity. This study investigates both the meteo-marine characteristics of the event and its associated damage in Calabria, where the cyclone triggered multiple hazards (wave storms, landslides, flooding, and strong winds). Meteo-marine forcing was characterized using integrated rainfall data, wave parameters, and wind data. In situ observations, radar-derived precipitation estimates, satellite measurements, and model-based reanalysis products were combined to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the event. A georeferenced database of 195 damage records was compiled and classified according to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), allowing spatial analyses within a GIS framework. Although the cyclone produced exceptional rainfall totals, locally exceeding 580 mm in 90 h, the distribution of impacts reveals the predominance of coastal processes. Wave storm-related damage accounted for 68% of all recorded impacts, mainly affecting transportation and communication infrastructures, tourism facilities, and population. The prevalence of coastal damage appears to be linked not only to the intensity of marine forcing but also to its persistence which locally exceeded the maximum climatological persistence, suggesting that event duration plays a critical role in determining impact severity. Geomorphological analyses indicate that short-term coastal vulnerability is influenced not only by long-term shoreline evolution but also by local topographic characteristics and exposure to marine forcing. These findings contribute to improving risk assessment and mitigation strategies for Mediterranean coastal regions under a changing climate. Full article

Ship weather routing in regional seas under severe seasonal weather systems, such as typhoons, poses a critical operational challenge for maritime safety and efficiency. Traditional single-agent reinforcement learning (RL) methods frequently suffer from training instabilities and erratic trajectory adjustments when exposed to the highly non-stationary, multi-scale dynamics of coupled wind–wave–current fields. To address these limitations, this study proposes a dual-agent hierarchical reinforcement learning framework (HRL-MOO) featuring a built-in dynamic risk-weight adaptation mechanism. The proposed global agent discerns large-scale environmental evolutions and adaptively updates the relative weights of wind-, wave-, and current-induced risks at a strategic level, while the local agent translates this macro-level guidance into short-term tactical heading and speed adjustments within realistic vessel motion boundaries. The framework incorporates bathymetric constraints through a high-resolution navigable domain mask derived from ETOPO topography to guarantee practical navigability. Simulated experiments are executed using hourly environmental reanalysis data and best-track records corresponding to the passage of Typhoon Yagi (2024) through the northern South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. The empirical results demonstrate that the cooperative dual-agent structure establishes a superior global Pareto frontier compared to conventional standard single-agent Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and metaheuristic baselines. Under extreme typhoon conditions, the HRL-MOO model effectively decreases the cumulative environment-induced risk from approximately 0.17 to 0.12, improves path smoothness by achieving a higher index of 0.842, and accelerates policy convergence to within 3000 training episodes, all while maintaining a highly efficient voyage distance with minimal detour overhead. Ablation studies further validate that the synergy between macro-level stream field recognition and adaptive multi-objective optimization significantly enhances decision-making stability. This framework offers a robust and interpretable computational tool for autonomous ship weather routing in fast-changing, high-risk ocean environments. Full article

The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice has significantly lengthened the window for Northeast Passage navigation, but the frequent occurrence of accompanying extreme weather events poses severe challenges to shipping safety. Based on 1991–2020 climate data and 2021–2024 NCEP reanalysis data, this study uses wave activity flux diagnosis, composite analysis and statistical test methods to reveal the causes of abnormal circulation and the energy propagation mechanism of heavy precipitation events during the navigation period (July–October) in the starting section of the Arctic Northeast Passage (from the Barents to the Kara Sea). The results show that from 2021 to 2024, there was a high proportion of heavy precipitation events during the navigation period (July–October), with significant temporal and spatial variability; abnormal circulation is triggered by the synergistic effect of the eastward shift in the Ural blocking high and the southward extension of the Arctic polar vortex. The enhanced upper-level westerly jet and the mid-level “tripole-type” teleconnection wave drive jointly drive the northward transport of warm, moist air, and the low-level cyclonic circulation and upper-level divergence trigger a baroclinic lifting mechanism. Rossby wave energy originates from the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, propagating eastward to the study area along the jet axis and enhancing the ascending motion through wave activity flux divergence. The heavy precipitation event in August 2023 is a typical example of the cross-seasonal synergistic sea temperature–sea ice–atmosphere effect. This study reveals the following complete teleconnection chain: “sea temperature anomaly → wave train excitation → sea ice feedback → circulation maintenance”, which will support predicting disastrous weather and developing climate adaptation strategies in the Arctic Passage. Full article

Accurate significant wave height prediction is essential for fuel-efficient ship operation and weather routing, as wave-induced resistance directly affects propulsion demand and fuel consumption. This study proposes a Residual U-Net-based deep-learning correction model to improve long-range SWH forecasts from WAVEWATCH III (WW3). WW3 global forecast fields were corrected using the proposed model, with CMEMS reanalysis data used as the ground-truth reference. The corrected outputs, denoted as WW3_UNET, were evaluated against 10 min resolution main engine fuel oil consumption (ME1_FOC) records and onboard wave observations from a commercial vessel traversing the South Atlantic in 2025. WW3_UNET showed markedly improved agreement with ship observations compared with the raw WW3 forecast across all lead times from 0 to 288 h. When a 24 h moving average was applied, WW3_UNET achieved a correlation of 0.720 with ME1_FOC at the 168–180 h lead time, closely approaching the 0.736 obtained from onboard wave measurements. These results indicate that AI-corrected forecasts can provide observation-consistent wave information up to 7–8 days in advance. The proposed approach can support fuel-aware weather routing and voyage planning, thereby contributing to improved maritime energy efficiency and decarbonization. Full article

Based on the Multi-Sensor Reanalysis Version 2 (MSR-2) and ERA5 datasets, variations in monthly mean total ozone column (TOC) over Northeast China (40–53°N, 115–135°E) from 2015 to 2024 are analyzed. Local ground-based observations at the regional WMO/GAW Longfengshan Station are also used. The aim is to investigate regional seasonality in TOC pattern and the relationship between TOC and ozone concentration and air temperature in the stratosphere and at the surface. No statistically significant linear trend was found for TOC; however, the annual mean TOC in the study region exceeds the zonal mean TOC by 25 DU (7.4%), and the annual maximum in February and minimum in August are observed one and two months earlier, respectively, than in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A climatological decrease in TOC from the northeastern (~415 DU) to southwestern (~330 DU) parts of Northeast China was found. We also found a strong correlation, approaching |r| = 0.8–0.9, between TOC and ozone concentration (positive) and temperature (negative) at the surface. The time series from Longfengshan Station for 2015–2022 closely match the MSR-2 data averaged over Northeast China: the monthly mean difference varies within ±15 DU (±4.2%), validating the reliability of the station data as a representative proxy for regional TOC variability. The role of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, quasi-stationary waves, and the Northeast China cold vortex in the detected patterns and quantitative associations of TOC is discussed. The findings of this work can be applied to analyze the ozone observations, TOC variability, and stratosphere–troposphere coupling in East Asia. Full article

Hyperspectral infrared observations are an important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) because they provide rich information on the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature and humidity. However, most existing deep learning methods mainly focus on one-way retrieval from radiances to atmospheric profiles, while the reverse radiance simulation process and the consistency between atmospheric state space and radiance observation space are insufficiently considered. In this study, we propose SIMBA, a unified bidirectional retrieval–forward simulation framework for FY-4A/GIIRS hyperspectral infrared radiance modeling toward NWP applications. The framework jointly performs atmospheric profile retrieval and radiance reconstruction, introduces a cycle-consistency constraint to strengthen the coupling between the two processes, and employs a bidirectional Mamba state-space module to capture long-range dependencies along pressure levels. Using collocated FY-4A/GIIRS observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the proposed method is evaluated for temperature retrieval, specific humidity retrieval, long-wave radiance reconstruction, and medium wave radiance reconstruction. Experimental results show that SIMBA outperforms several representative deep learning baselines across both retrieval and reconstruction tasks, while ablation experiments confirm the contribution of the bidirectional design and cycle-consistency mechanism. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework is effective for joint atmospheric profile retrieval and hyperspectral infrared radiance modeling, and suggests potential for future Jacobian-related analysis and NWP-oriented extensions. Full article

Accurate prediction of significant wave height (SWH) is essential for fisheries management, coastal socioeconomic activities, and marine ecological conservation. In recent years, deep learning-based bias correction has shown considerable potential for improving numerical wave forecasts. However, many existing approaches are still constrained by limited receptive fields and often struggle to capture long-range spatiotemporal dependencies in wave forecast errors. To deal with this issue, we adapt and improve a video prediction framework, namely the Vision Mamba Recurrent Neural Network (VMRNN), to model and correct the spatiotemporal patterns of SWH prediction biases. Comprehensive evaluations show that the multi-channel VMRNN achieves consistently high predictive accuracy across different forecast lead times and sea-state conditions. When validated against reanalysis data, the proposed model reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) of WAVEWATCH III forecasts by 28.2%, 26.1%, and 24.7% at lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. It also preserves the spatial structure of SWH fields quite well, with the spatial structural similarity index remaining as high as 0.945 even at the 72 h lead time. Regional assessments over high-wave areas further indicate that VMRNN can effectively reduce both the mean error and the systematic overestimation commonly found in numerical wave models. Additional validation using in situ buoys observations confirms that the model has a robust ability to correct systematic positive biases, especially for wave heights ranging from 0.5 m to 2 m. Taken together, these results suggest that VMRNN has strong spatiotemporal modeling capability and can serve as a promising post-processing framework for improving operational physics-based wave forecasting systems. Full article

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as the core component of the global thermohaline circulation, exerts a profound influence on the Northern Hemisphere climate. Recent observations show that AMOC intensity has weakened by approximately 15% over the past 40 years, yet the traditional theoretical framework dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) cannot fully explain its spatial heterogeneity. This study systematically quantifies the independent driving mechanism of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on AMOC decline for the first time by integrating multi-source reanalysis data (ERA5, ORAS5) and CMIP6 model output. Theoretical analysis shows that the AO positive phase regulates the stability of AMOC through two coupled pathways: (1) anomalous wind stress curl leads to the weakening of Ekman suction in the subpolar seas (contribution: 42 ± 6%), inhibiting deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea; and (2) increased freshwater flux through the Fram Strait triggers a negative salinity advection feedback, which leads to shoaling of the North Atlantic high-latitude mixed layer by up to 30 m. The cross-scale interaction reveals that the AO interannual variability amplifies the modulation of the AMOC interdecadal trend. This amplification occurs through the positive feedback of sea-ice albedo. When AO and NAO are locked in opposite phases (AO+/NAO−), the AMOC weakening rate increases to 1.8 Sv/decade (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s), whereas the same-phase negative condition (AO−/NAO−) yields a moderate decline of 0.5 Sv/decade. This mechanism corrects the underestimation of the traditional wind-driven circulation theory for high-latitude processes and provides a physical attribution for the CMIP6 models’ systematic underestimation of AMOC sensitivity. The study further constructs the “Arctic Oscillation–subpolar basin–AMOC” three-pole coupling theoretical model and confirms that the Arctic amplification effect enhances the AO–AMOC coupling strength by a factor of 2.3 over the full study period (1979–2020; R² = 0.71, p < 0.01), with an even more pronounced enhancement of 2.1 times during the recent two decades (2000–2020; R² increased from 0.28 to 0.59). These findings have direct implications for coastal risk assessment, as AMOC weakening may accelerate sea-level rise along the North American East Coast and increase the frequency of extreme winter storm surges in European coastal areas. The results provide a dynamic basis for IPCC climate risk assessment and have practical application value for the early warning of extreme cold-wave events. Full article

Under climate change, the increasing typhoon intensity poses a severe threat to fishery harbor safety through storm surges and extreme waves. Traditional empirical management approaches fail to capture the complex wave-surge coupling inside harbors, leading to risk blind spots in berth allocation. This study enhances the fishery harbor disaster resilience by employing high-resolution coupled wave-storm surge modeling, taking Xinying Central Fishing Harbor (Hainan, China) during Super Typhoon Yagi (September 2024) as a case study. A Holland typhoon model integrated with ERA5 reanalysis data was used to reconstruct the wind field, which subsequently drove a one-way coupled MIKE 21 FM–SW model to simulate regional tides and deep-water waves. A Boussinesq wave model was then applied to resolve nearshore shallow-water wave transformations inside the harbor. Model validation showed strong agreement with observations: correlation coefficients of 0.97 for tides in Xinying station and 0.95, 0.97, 0.93 for significant wave heights in three buoys around Hainan island, with root-mean-square errors of 0.19 m and 0.67, 0.69, 0.31 m, respectively. The Boussinesq wave simulations revealed detailed spatial distributions of wave heights inside the harbor during the typhoon. Based on these simulations, a dynamic berth zoning strategy was developed, mapping safety zones for different vessel sizes according to wave-height tolerance (e.g., ≤0.6 m for medium-sized trawlers). This framework can provide potential support for decision-making regarding fishing vessel refuge during typhoons, maximizing safe capacity while minimizing capsizing risks. Overall, this study demonstrates a feasible pathway from advanced numerical modeling to practical engineering management, supporting a transition from experience-based to data- and model-driven disaster prevention for coastal fishery harbors. Full article

Drought is a slowly evolving, multi-driver hydro-meteorological hazard whose accurate early prediction is a cornerstone of climate-smart agriculture and water-resource planning. Existing data-driven drought forecasting frameworks suffer from three persistent limitations: (i) most models concatenate heterogeneous climate variables into a single flat feature vector, implicitly assuming a single dominant driver such as precipitation, even though atmospheric moisture demand, radiation and wind-mediated evapotranspiration co-determine drought onset; (ii) wavelet preprocessing is typically applied to the full series, introducing future-information leakage that violates the operational causality requirement of forecasting; and (iii) most architectures predict a single horizon and provide no causal attribution explaining when, where and which climatic variables initiated the event. This study proposes WaveDroughtNet, a multi-modal, multi-horizon deep-learning framework that addresses these limitations through five integrated components: (a) a strictly causal Daubechies-4 wavelet decomposition computed in a rolling fashion; (b) six modality-specific encoders with stochastic modality dropout (p = 0.15); (c) cross-modal multi-head attention with four heads; (d) a four-layer temporal convolutional network (TCN) backbone with dilation factors yielding a 240-step receptive field; and (e) a post hoc DroughtOriginTracer that combines temporal attention, modal-attribution and inter-district propagation scans. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), used as the supervisory target, is computed following the canonical Vicente-Serrano formulation. water balance $D=P-\mathrm{P}\mathrm{E}\mathrm{T}$ (Hargreaves PET) at a 4-week (≈1-month) timescale, fitted with a three-parameter log-logistic distribution via L-moments, validated by Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit testing ($\alpha =0.05$) per district, and standardised through the inverse-normal cumulative distribution function. Trained on 18,304 weekly district records from NASA POWER reanalysis (2014–2025) covering all 32 districts of Tamil Nadu, India, WaveDroughtNet uses only 256,869 parameters and produces, in a single forward pass, four forecasts (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 1 year). On the held-out 2024 test partition ($N=1728$), the model attains weighted $F1=0.9221$ and $R^2=0.8512$ at the 1-week horizon, and weighted $F1=0.8498$ and $R^2=0.6812$ at the 1-year horizon. Diebold–Mariano tests confirm that WaveDroughtNet significantly outperforms naive persistence, seasonal naive, LSTM, ConvLSTM and a vanilla Transformer at the 3-month and 1-year horizons (p < 0.001). The DroughtOriginTracer successfully back-projects 15 Coimbatore events to causal origins 29–41 weeks prior to onset. We explicitly acknowledge three limitations that constrain operational deployment in its current form—zero severe events in the 2024 test partition ($F{1}_{severe}$ = 0.000), static inter-district modelling, and absence of vegetation-index supervision—and propose concrete mitigation pathways in the Discussion. Full article

A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides vital global observations of ocean waves. However, the quasi-linear inversion algorithm routinely used for Sentinel-1 Level-2 Ocean Swell Wave (OSW) products suffers from inherent nonlinear imaging limitations. These include severe distortions and the inability to resolve wind-sea components under a strong azimuth cut-off effect. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel prior-knowledge-integrated machine learning framework to reconstruct complete and accurate directional wave spectra from Sentinel-1A SAR wave mode data. First, an extreme gradient boosting model is trained to accurately estimate wind-sea heights, which are then used to construct a theoretical JONSWAP prior spectrum. Subsequently, a U-Net architecture seamlessly integrates this physical prior knowledge with the official OSW swell spectra baseline. Independent validation demonstrates that the proposed framework significantly increases the spectral similarity against ERA5 reanalysis compared to the standard OSW. Furthermore, the derived parameters of total significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction exhibit remarkable improvements, with root mean square errors of 0.4026 m, 0.4342 s and 20.42°, respectively. The enhancement of SAR inferred two-dimensional wave spectra is also examined and discussed by three typical case studies. It is indicated that integrating physical wave knowledge with machine learning robustly mitigates the non-linear limitations of SAR imaging, providing highly reliable directional wave spectra for global ocean monitoring and forecasting. Full article

Atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves—convective disturbances that manipulate tropical wind and rainfall patterns—can propagate eastward at speeds ranging from nearly stationary to 30 m/s, with variability determined by moist processes and advection by the background wind. Current studies on Kelvin waves lack a comprehensive climatology that explains how their structure and propagation speeds change in different background states. Thus, this work builds a variable regression model that uses ERA5 reanalysis data to reconstruct Kelvin waves during different background wind shear conditions and phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Pacific. Overall, Kelvin waves tend to speed up during background conditions that generate upper-tropospheric westerlies and slow down during upper-tropospheric easterlies. East Pacific Kelvin waves are faster than West Pacific Kelvin waves because of climatological westerly shear in the former and easterly shear in the latter. However, strong westerly shear over the East Pacific allows extratropical Rossby waves to impede on the Kelvin wave, while strong easterly shear over the West Pacific distorts classical Kelvin wave structure. The results provide references for weather prediction models to accurately resolve the interaction between Kelvin waves and background circulation. Full article

Ocean surface currents (OSCs) are central to upper ocean dynamics and air–sea exchange, yet their retrieval from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is limited by wave-induced bias (WB). WB arises from the inherent motion of the scattering facets and from long-wave hydrodynamic and tilt modulations, and is therefore jointly controlled by sea state and radar viewing geometry. This study develops an observation geometry optimization framework. Five years of hourly ERA5 wind and wave reanalysis data over the Kuroshio are used as a representative ensemble of sea states to drive the KaDOP model, and an exhaustive grid search over line-of-sight (LOS) azimuth (0–360°) and incidence angle (20–60°) is performed to identify, for each location and season, the viewing geometry that minimizes the time-mean WB. These local optima are then summarized as mission-level metrics, including the minimum achievable WB, the coverage meeting prescribed WB thresholds, and the spatial coherence of the preferred LOS azimuth and incidence angle. Finally, the theoretical minima are compared with the fixed left-looking geometry of the Luojia-2 (LJ-2) satellite along a 213 km × 6 km observation corridor and with Gaofen-3 (GF-3) viewing geometries at four representative locations in the Kuroshio. Across these validation cases, the optimized geometry reduces mean absolute WB by about 20–60% for LJ-2 and 20–80% for GF-3, providing quantitative constraints for future SAR mission design targeting OSCs. Full article

Older adults are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, but evidence of the role of social factors in regional heat vulnerability remains limited. To assess the impacts of heat waves on cardiorespiratory hospitalizations and mortality, we developed a Climate Vulnerability Index by the Regional Health Department (RHD), including adults aged ≥ 60 years across 17 RHDs in São Paulo State, Brazil. Health data were obtained from national information systems, and heat wave exposure was derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with daily mean temperature exceeding the seasonal climatological mean by ≥3 °C, for 2010–2019 and 2023–2024, excluding 2020–2022. Associations between heat waves and health outcomes were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models with lags of 0–15 days. Cumulative relative risks, along with sociodemographic, sanitation, and health system indicators, were integrated to construct the Index based on IPCC sensitivity and adaptive capacity domains. Heat waves were associated with increased risks of cardiorespiratory hospitalizations and mortality across all RHDs, with stronger effects observed for mortality and inland regions. Higher vulnerability was concentrated in RHDs characterized by larger older adult populations, greater heat-related risks, and weaker health system and sanitation indicators, whereas more developed regions showed lower vulnerability. Overall, the Index provides a practical tool to support territorial prioritization and targeted heat–health adaptation strategies in ageing populations. Full article