Journal Description
Meteorology
Meteorology
is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on atmospheric science published quarterly online by MDPI.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 26.6 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 12.9 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the first half of 2023).
- Recognition of Reviewers: APC discount vouchers, optional signed peer review, and reviewer names published annually in the journal.
- Meteorology is a companion journal of Atmosphere.
Latest Articles
The Relationships between Adverse Weather, Traffic Mobility, and Driver Behavior
Meteorology 2023, 2(4), 489-508; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2040028 - 19 Nov 2023
Abstract
Adverse weather conditions impact mobility, safety, and the behavior of drivers on roads. In an average year, approximately 21% of U.S. highway crashes are weather-related. Collectively, these crashes result in over 5300 fatalities each year. As a proof-of-concept, analyzing weather information in the
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Adverse weather conditions impact mobility, safety, and the behavior of drivers on roads. In an average year, approximately 21% of U.S. highway crashes are weather-related. Collectively, these crashes result in over 5300 fatalities each year. As a proof-of-concept, analyzing weather information in the context of traffic mobility data can provide unique insights into driver behavior and actions transportation agencies can pursue to promote safety and efficiency. Using 2019 weather and traffic data along Colorado Highway 119 between Boulder and Longmont, this research analyzed the relationship between adverse weather and traffic conditions. The data were classified into distinct weather types, day of the week, and the direction of travel to capture commuter traffic flows. Novel traffic information crowdsourced from smartphones provided metrics such as volume, speed, trip length, trip duration, and the purpose of travel. The data showed that snow days had a smaller traffic volume than clear and rainy days, with an All Times volume of approximately 18,000 vehicles for each direction of travel, as opposed to 21,000 vehicles for both clear and wet conditions. From a trip purpose perspective, the data showed that the percentage of travel between home and work locations was 21.4% during a snow day compared to 20.6% for rain and 19.6% for clear days. The overall traffic volume reduction during snow days is likely due to drivers deciding to avoid commuting; however, the relative increase in the home–work travel percentage is likely attributable to less discretionary travel in lieu of essential work travel. In comparison, the increase in traffic volume during rainy days may be due to commuters being less likely to walk, bike, or take public transit during inclement weather. This study demonstrates the insight into human behavior by analyzing impact on traffic parameters during adverse weather travel.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2023))
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Open AccessArticle
Specific Features of the Land-Sea Contrast of Cloud Liquid Water Path in Northern Europe as Obtained from the Observations by the SEVIRI Instrument: Artefacts or Reality?
Meteorology 2023, 2(4), 464-488; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2040027 - 11 Nov 2023
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Liquid water path (LWP) is one of the most important cloud parameters and is crucial for global and regional climate modelling, weather forecasting, and modelling of the hydrological cycle and interactions between different components of the climate system: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, and
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Liquid water path (LWP) is one of the most important cloud parameters and is crucial for global and regional climate modelling, weather forecasting, and modelling of the hydrological cycle and interactions between different components of the climate system: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, and the land surface. Space-borne observations by the SEVIRI instrument have already provided evidence of the systematic difference between the cloud LWP values derived over the land surface in Northern Europe and those derived over the Baltic Sea and major lakes during both cold and warm seasons. In the present study, the analysis of this LWP land-sea contrast for the period 2011–2017 reveals specific temporal and spatial variations, which, in some cases, seem to be artefacts rather than of natural origin. The geographical objects of investigation are water bodies and water areas located in Northern Europe that differ in size and other geophysical characteristics: the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga in the Baltic Sea and large and small lakes in the neighbouring region. The analysis of intra-seasonal features has detected anomalous conditions in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland, which show up as very low values of the LWP land-sea contrast in August with respect to the values in June and July every year within the considered time period. This anomaly is likely an artefact caused by the LWP retrieval algorithm since the transition from large LWP contrast to very low contrast occurs sharply, synchronically, and at a certain date every year at different places in the Baltic Sea.
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Open AccessReview
Air Temperature Intermittency and Photofragment Excitation
Meteorology 2023, 2(4), 445-463; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2040026 - 14 Oct 2023
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Four observational results: the intermittency of air temperature; its correlation with ozone photodissociation rate; the diurnal variation of ozone in the upper stratosphere; and the cold bias of meteorological analyses compared to observations, are reviewed. The excitation of photofragments and their persistence of
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Four observational results: the intermittency of air temperature; its correlation with ozone photodissociation rate; the diurnal variation of ozone in the upper stratosphere; and the cold bias of meteorological analyses compared to observations, are reviewed. The excitation of photofragments and their persistence of velocity after collision is appealed to as a possible explanation. Consequences are discussed, including the interpretation of the Langevin equation and fluctuation–dissipation in the atmosphere, the role of scale invariance and statistical multifractality, and what the results might mean for the distribution of isotopes among atmospheric molecules. An adjunct of the analysis is an exponent characterizing jet streams. Observational tests are suggested.
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Open AccessArticle
Espresso: A Global Deep Learning Model to Estimate Precipitation from Satellite Observations
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Meteorology 2023, 2(4), 421-444; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2040025 - 26 Sep 2023
Cited by 1
Abstract
Estimating precipitation is of critical importance to climate systems and decision-making processes. This paper presents Espresso, a deep learning model designed for estimating precipitation from satellite observations on a global scale. Conventional methods, like ground-based radars, are limited in terms of spatial coverage.
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Estimating precipitation is of critical importance to climate systems and decision-making processes. This paper presents Espresso, a deep learning model designed for estimating precipitation from satellite observations on a global scale. Conventional methods, like ground-based radars, are limited in terms of spatial coverage. Satellite observations, on the other hand, allow global coverage. Combined with deep learning methods, these observations offer the opportunity to address the challenge of estimating precipitation on a global scale. This research paper presents the development of a deep learning model using geostationary satellite data as input and generating instantaneous rainfall rates, calibrated using data from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory (GPMCO). The performance impact of various input data configurations on Espresso was investigated. These configurations include a sequence of four images from geostationary satellites and the optimal selection of channels. Additional descriptive features were explored to enhance the model’s robustness for global applications. When evaluated against the GPMCO test set, Espresso demonstrated highly accurate precipitation estimation, especially within equatorial regions. A comparison against six other operational products using multiple metrics indicated its competitive performance. The model’s superior storm localization and intensity estimation were further confirmed through visual comparisons in case studies. Espresso has been incorporated as an operational product at Météo-France, delivering high-quality, real-time global precipitation estimates every 30 min.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2023))
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Open AccessArticle
No City Left Behind: Building Climate Policy Bridges between the North and South
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 403-420; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030024 - 05 Sep 2023
Abstract
Cities are progressively heightening their climate aspirations to curtail urban carbon emissions and establish a future where economies and communities can flourish within the Earth’s ecological limits. Consequently, numerous climate initiatives are being launched to control urban carbon emissions, targeting various sectors, including
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Cities are progressively heightening their climate aspirations to curtail urban carbon emissions and establish a future where economies and communities can flourish within the Earth’s ecological limits. Consequently, numerous climate initiatives are being launched to control urban carbon emissions, targeting various sectors, including transport, residential, agricultural, and energy. However, recent scientific literature underscores the disproportionate distribution of climate policies. While cities in the Global North have witnessed several initiatives to combat climate change, cities in the Global South remain uncovered and highly vulnerable to climate hazards. To address this disparity, we employed the Balanced Iterative Reducing and Clustering using the Hierarchies (BRICH) algorithm to cluster cities from diverse geographical areas that exhibit comparable socioeconomic profiles. This clustering strives to foster enhanced cooperation and collaboration among cities globally, with the goal of addressing climate change in a comprehensive manner. In summary, we identified similarities, patterns, and clusters among peer cities, enabling mutual and generalizable learning among worldwide peer-cities regarding urban climate policy exchange. This exchange occurs through three approaches: (i) inner-mutual learning, (ii) cross-mutual learning, and (iii) outer-mutual learning. Our findings mark a pivotal stride towards attaining worldwide climate objectives through a shared responsibility approach. Furthermore, they provide preliminary insights into the implementation of “urban climate policy exchange” among peer cities on a global scale.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2023))
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Open AccessArticle
Characteristics of Convective Parameters Derived from Rawinsonde and ERA5 Data Associated with Hailstorms in Northeastern Romania
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, , , , and
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 387-402; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030023 - 23 Aug 2023
Abstract
Using a database of 378 hail days between 1981 and 2020, the climatic characteristics of 23 convective parameters from sounding data and ERA5 data were statistically analysed. The goal of this work is to evaluate the usefulness and representativeness of convective parameters derived
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Using a database of 378 hail days between 1981 and 2020, the climatic characteristics of 23 convective parameters from sounding data and ERA5 data were statistically analysed. The goal of this work is to evaluate the usefulness and representativeness of convective parameters derived from sounding data and reanalysis data for the operational forecast of the hail phenomenon. As a result, the average values from 12:00 UTC were 433 J/kg for CAPE in the case of data from ERA5 and 505 J/kg from rawinsonde, respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficient matrix between the values of the parameters indicates high correlations among the parameters calculated based on the parcel theory, humidity indices, and the complex indices. The probability for large hail increases with high values of low-level and boundary-layer moisture, high CAPE, and a high lifting condensation level (LCL) height.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2023))
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Open AccessArticle
Airstream Association of Large Boundary Layer Rolls during Extratropical Transition of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy (2012)
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 368-386; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030022 - 07 Aug 2023
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Better understanding of roll vortices that often occur in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer is required to improve forecasts of TC intensification and the granularity of damaging surface winds. It is especially important to characterize rolls over a wide variety of TCs,
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Better understanding of roll vortices that often occur in the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer is required to improve forecasts of TC intensification and the granularity of damaging surface winds. It is especially important to characterize rolls over a wide variety of TCs, their environments, and TC development phases. Boundary layer rolls have been observed in TCs since 1998, but only recently in a TC during its extratropical transition phase. The work reported herein is the first to analyze how boundary layer rolls are distributed among the extratropical features of a transitioning TC. To this end, routine and special operational observations recorded during landfalling Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy (2012) were leveraged, including radar, surface, rawinsonde, and aircraft reconnaissance observations. Large rolls occurred in cold airstreams, both in the cold conveyor belt within the northwestern storm quadrant and in the secluding airstream within the northeastern quadrant, but roll presence was much diminished within the intervening warm sector. The large size of the rolls and their confinement to cold airstreams is attributed to an optimum inflow layer depth, which is deep enough below a strong stable layer to accommodate deep and strong positive radial wind shear to promote roll growth, yet not so deep as to limit radial wind shear magnitude, as occurred in the warm sector.
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Open AccessArticle
Reliability of Extreme Wind Speeds Predicted by Extreme-Value Analysis
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 344-367; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030021 - 31 Jul 2023
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The reliability of extreme wind speed predictions at large mean recurrence intervals (MRI) is assessed by bootstrapping samples from representative known distributions. The classical asymptotic generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto (GPD) distribution are compared with a contemporary sub-asymptotic Gumbel
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The reliability of extreme wind speed predictions at large mean recurrence intervals (MRI) is assessed by bootstrapping samples from representative known distributions. The classical asymptotic generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto (GPD) distribution are compared with a contemporary sub-asymptotic Gumbel distribution that accounts for incomplete convergence to the correct asymptote. The sub-asymptotic model is implemented through a modified Gringorten method for epoch maxima and through the XIMIS method for peak-over-threshold values. The mean bias error is shown to be minimal in all cases, so that the variability expressed by the standard error becomes the principal reliability metric. Peak-over-threshold (POT) methods are shown to always be more reliable than epoch methods due to the additional sub-epoch data. The generalized asymptotic methods are shown to always be less reliable than the sub-asymptotic methods by a factor that increases with MRI. This study reinforces the previously published theory-based arguments that GEV and GPD are unsuitable models for extreme wind speeds by showing that they also provide the least reliable predictions in practice. A new two-step Weibull-XIMIS hybrid method is shown to have superior reliability.
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Open AccessArticle
Influence of Underlying Topography on Post-Monsoon Cyclonic Systems over the Indian Peninsula
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 329-343; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030020 - 31 Jul 2023
Abstract
During the post-monsoon cyclone season, the landfalls of westward-moving cyclonic systems often lead to extreme rainfall over the east coast of the Indian peninsula. A stationary cyclonic system over the coast can produce heavy rainfall for several days and cause catastrophic flooding. This
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During the post-monsoon cyclone season, the landfalls of westward-moving cyclonic systems often lead to extreme rainfall over the east coast of the Indian peninsula. A stationary cyclonic system over the coast can produce heavy rainfall for several days and cause catastrophic flooding. This study analyzes the dynamics of a propagating and stationary cyclonic system over the east coast, highlighting the possible cause behind the stagnation. The vorticity budgets of these two systems are presented using a reanalysis dataset. Vortex stretching and horizontal vorticity advection were the dominant terms in the budget. Vertical advection and tilting terms were significant over the orography. The horizontal advection of vorticity was positive (negative) on the western (eastern) side of the systems and, thus, favored westward propagation. Vortex stretching was confined to the upstream of orography in the stationary vortex. In the propagating vortex, the vortex stretching occurred over the orography during its passage. Data from the radiosonde soundings over a coastal station showed orographic blocking of the low-level winds in the stationary case. Conversely, the flow crossed the orographic barrier in the propagating case. Thus, the predominance of the upstream orographic convergence over the vortex circulation can be the reason for system stagnation over the coast.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2023))
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Open AccessArticle
Why Above-Average Rainfall Occurred in Northern Northeast Brazil during the 2019 El Niño?
Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 307-328; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030019 - 12 Jul 2023
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El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite rainfall pattern was observed during an El Niño episode. Here, we explore the mechanisms that overwhelmed typical El Niño-related conditions and resulted
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El Niño is generally associated with negative rainfall anomalies (below-average rainfall) in northern Northeast Brazil (NNEB). In 2019, however, the opposite rainfall pattern was observed during an El Niño episode. Here, we explore the mechanisms that overwhelmed typical El Niño-related conditions and resulted in positive rainfall anomalies (above-average rainfall) in NNEB. We focus on the austral autumn when El Niño is most prone to rainfall anomalies in the region. The analysis of several datasets, including weather station data, satellite data, reanalysis data, and modelled data derived from a dry linear baroclinic model, allowed us to identify that the austral autumn 2019 above-average rainfall in NNEB was likely associated with four combined factors; these are (1) the weak intensity of the 2019 El Niño; (2) the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode; (3) local and remote diabatic heating anomalies, especially over the western South Pacific and tropical South Atlantic, which resulted in anticyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the upper and lower troposphere, respectively, over the tropical South Atlantic; and (4) sub-seasonal atmospheric convection anomalies over the western South Pacific, which reinforced the low-frequency convection signal over that region. This latter factor suggests the influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on rainfall in NNEB during the first ten days of March 2019. We discuss these mechanisms in detail and provide evidence that, even during an El Niño event, above-average rainfall in NNEB in the austral autumn may occur, and its modulation is not limited to the influence of a single climate phenomenon. Our results may assist in the planning of several crucial activities, such as water resources management and agriculture.
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Open AccessReview
Cloudiness Parameterization for Use in Atmospheric Models: A Review and New Perspectives
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Meteorology 2023, 2(3), 295-306; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2030018 - 22 Jun 2023
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In atmospheric models, the representation of cloudiness is a direct linkage between the moisture amount and associated radiative forcing. This paper begins by providing a review of the parameterization of cloudiness that has been used for numerical weather predictions and climate studies. The
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In atmospheric models, the representation of cloudiness is a direct linkage between the moisture amount and associated radiative forcing. This paper begins by providing a review of the parameterization of cloudiness that has been used for numerical weather predictions and climate studies. The inherent uncertainties in representing a partial fraction of clouds for radiation feedback and in evaluating it against the corresponding observations are focused. It is also stated that the major hydrometeor categories of water substances such as cloud ice and water that are responsible for cloud cover are readily available in modern weather and climate models. Inconsistencies in cloud cover and hydrometeors, even in the case of the prognostic method, are discussed. The compensating effect of cloudiness for radiative feedback is found to imply that the condensed water amount itself is more influential on the radiative forcing, rather than the accuracy of the cloudiness. Based on the above perspectives, an alternative diagnostic parameterization method is proposed, utilizing a monotonic relation between the cloud water amounts and cloudiness that are obtained from aircraft and satellite observations. The basic premise of this approach lies in the accuracy of the water substance in the models, indicating that future efforts need to be given to improvements in physical processes concerning hydrometeor properties for the accurate representation of cloud radiative feedback.
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Open AccessArticle
Impact of ASOS Real-Time Quality Control on Convective Gust Extremes in the USA
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 276-294; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020017 - 13 Jun 2023
Cited by 1
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Most damage to buildings across the contiguous United States, in terms of number and total cost, is caused by gusts in convective events associated with thunderstorms. Their assessment relies on the integrity of meteorological observations. This study examines the impact on risk due
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Most damage to buildings across the contiguous United States, in terms of number and total cost, is caused by gusts in convective events associated with thunderstorms. Their assessment relies on the integrity of meteorological observations. This study examines the impact on risk due to valid gust observations culled erroneously by the real-time quality control algorithm of the US Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) after 2013. ASOS data before 2014 are used to simulate the effect of this algorithm at 450 well-exposed stations distributed across the contiguous USA. The peak gust is culled in around 10% of these events causing significant underestimates of extreme gusts. The full ASOS record, 2000–2021, is used to estimate and map the 50-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) gust speeds, the conventional metric for structural design. It is concluded that recovery of erroneously culled observations is not possible, so the only practical option to eliminate underestimation is to ensure that the 50-year MRI gust speed at any given station is not less than the mean for nearby surrounding stations. This also affects stations where values are legitimately lower than their neighbors, which represents the price that must be paid to eliminate unacceptable risk.
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Open AccessArticle
Evaluation of Vertical Profiles and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure Using the Regional Climate Model CCLM during MOSAiC
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, , , , and
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 257-275; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020016 - 07 Jun 2023
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Regional climate models are a valuable tool for the study of the climate processes and climate change in polar regions, but the performance of the models has to be evaluated using experimental data. The regional climate model CCLM was used for simulations for
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Regional climate models are a valuable tool for the study of the climate processes and climate change in polar regions, but the performance of the models has to be evaluated using experimental data. The regional climate model CCLM was used for simulations for the MOSAiC period with a horizontal resolution of 14 km (whole Arctic). CCLM was used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) and used a thermodynamic sea ice model. Sea ice concentration was taken from AMSR2 data (C15 run) and from a high-resolution data set (1 km) derived from MODIS data (C15MOD0 run). The model was evaluated using radiosonde data and data of different profiling systems with a focus on the winter period (November–April). The comparison with radiosonde data showed very good agreement for temperature, humidity, and wind. A cold bias was present in the ABL for November and December, which was smaller for the C15MOD0 run. In contrast, there was a warm bias for lower levels in March and April, which was smaller for the C15 run. The effects of different sea ice parameterizations were limited to heights below 300 m. High-resolution lidar and radar wind profiles as well as temperature and integrated water vapor (IWV) data from microwave radiometers were used for the comparison with CCLM for case studies, which included low-level jets. LIDAR wind profiles have many gaps, but represent a valuable data set for model evaluation. Comparisons with IWV and temperature data of microwave radiometers show very good agreement.
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Open AccessTechnical Note
Heuristic and Bayesian Tornado Prediction in Complex Terrain of Southern Wyoming
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 239-256; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020015 - 26 May 2023
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A heuristic technique for tornado forecasting in the complex terrain of southern Wyoming is proposed for the weather sciences community. This novel approach is based on seasonal tornado climatology and observed mesoscale conditions obtained from in-situ surface and Doppler weather radar sources. The
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A heuristic technique for tornado forecasting in the complex terrain of southern Wyoming is proposed for the weather sciences community. This novel approach is based on seasonal tornado climatology and observed mesoscale conditions obtained from in-situ surface and Doppler weather radar sources. The methodology is applied to four severe thunderstorm events which formed tornadoes during the spring and summer months of 2018 and 2019 in Albany County of Wyoming. Tornadic evolution is associated with supercell thunderstorms forming along moisture convergence axes of a dryline and updraft interactions with air mass stretching and shearing over the complex terrain. Applying Bayes’ theorem to each case, there is a low to high (30 to 80%) posterior probability associated with vortex detection.
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Open AccessArticle
Assessment of Winter Urban Heat Island in Ljubljana, Slovenia
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 222-238; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020014 - 09 May 2023
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Although the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is more commonly studied in summer, its influence is also important in winter. In this study, the authors focused on the winter UHI in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and its impact on the urban population, as well as
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Although the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is more commonly studied in summer, its influence is also important in winter. In this study, the authors focused on the winter UHI in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and its impact on the urban population, as well as in comparison with a UHI study from 2000. Through a combination of mobile and stationary temperature measurements in different parts of the city, the winter intensity of the UHI in Ljubljana was studied in a dense spatial network of measurements. It was found that the intensity of the winter UHI in Ljubljana decreases as winters become warmer and less snowy. The results showed that the winter UHI in Ljubljana intensifies during the night and reaches the greatest intensity at sunrise. During the winter radiation type of weather, the warmest part of Ljubljana reaches an intensity of 3.5 °C in the evening. In total, 22% of the urban area is in the evening UHI intensity range of 2–4 °C, and 65% of the urban population lives in this range. In the morning, the UHI in Ljubljana has a maximum intensity of 5 °C. The area of >4 °C UHI intensity covers 7% of the urban area, and 28% of the total urban population lives in this area. Higher temperatures in urban centers in winter lead to a longer growing season, fewer snow cover days, lower energy consumption and cold stress, and lower mortality from cold-related diseases compared to the colder periphery.
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Open AccessArticle
Barotropic Instability during Eyewall Replacement
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 191-221; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020013 - 20 Apr 2023
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Just before making landfall in Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria (2017) underwent a concentric eyewall cycle in which the outer convective ring appeared robust while the inner ring first distorted into an ellipse and then disintegrated. The present work offers further support for the
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Just before making landfall in Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria (2017) underwent a concentric eyewall cycle in which the outer convective ring appeared robust while the inner ring first distorted into an ellipse and then disintegrated. The present work offers further support for the simple interpretation of this event in terms of the non-divergent barotropic model, which serves as the basis for a linear stability analysis and for non-linear numerical simulations. For the linear stability analysis the model’s axisymmetric basic state vorticity distribution is piece-wise uniform in five regions: the eye, the inner eyewall, the moat, the outer eyewall, and the far field. The stability of such structures is investigated by solving a simple eigenvalue/eigenvector problem and, in the case of instability, the non-linear evolution into a more stable structure is simulated using the non-linear barotropic model. Three types of instability and vorticity rearrangement are identified: (1) instability across the outer ring of enhanced vorticity; (2) instability across the low vorticity moat; and (3) instability across the inner ring of enhanced vorticity. The first and third types of instability occur when the rings of enhanced vorticity are sufficiently narrow, with non-linear mixing resulting in broader and weaker vorticity rings. The second type of instability, most relevant to Hurricane Maria, occurs when the radial extent of the moat is sufficiently narrow that unstable interactions occur between the outer edge of the primary eyewall and the inner edge of the secondary eyewall. The non-linear dynamics of this type of instability distort the inner eyewall into an ellipse that splits and later recombines, resulting in a vorticity tripole. This type of instability may occur near the end of a concentric eyewall cycle.
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Open AccessReview
Frequency and Intensity of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in East Asia: Past Variations and Future Projections
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 171-190; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020012 - 03 Apr 2023
Cited by 1
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This paper presents the latest analyses and integrates results of many past studies on the spatial and temporal variations of the annual frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along different areas of the East Asian (EA) coast. Future projections of
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This paper presents the latest analyses and integrates results of many past studies on the spatial and temporal variations of the annual frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along different areas of the East Asian (EA) coast. Future projections of such variations based on the past investigations are also presented. No statistically significant trend in the number of landfalling TCs could be identified in most of the EA coastal regions, except for an increasing one in Vietnam and a decreasing one in South China. Multi-decadal as well as interannual variations in the frequency of landfalling TCs are prevalent in almost all the EA coastal regions. Only TCs making landfall in Vietnam and the Korean Peninsula showed an increase in landfall intensity, with no trend in the other regions. Nevertheless, more intense landfalling TCs were evident in most regions during the past two decades. Multidecadal variations were not observed in some regions although interannual variations remained large. Various oscillations in the atmospheric circulation and the ocean conditions can largely explain the observed changes in the frequency and intensity of landfalling TCs in different regions of the EA coast. In the future, most climate models project a decrease in the number of TCs making landfall but an increase in the intensity of these TCs in all the EA coastal regions, especially for the most intense ones.
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Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview
A Simple Family of Tropical Cyclone Models
Meteorology 2023, 2(2), 149-170; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2020011 - 28 Mar 2023
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This review discusses a simple family of models capable of simulating tropical cyclone life cycles, including intensification, the formation of the axisymmetric version of boundary layer shocks, and the development of an eyewall. Four models are discussed, all of which are axisymmetric, f
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This review discusses a simple family of models capable of simulating tropical cyclone life cycles, including intensification, the formation of the axisymmetric version of boundary layer shocks, and the development of an eyewall. Four models are discussed, all of which are axisymmetric, f-plane, three-layer models. All four models have the same parameterizations of convective mass flux and air–sea interaction, but differ in their formulations of the radial and tangential equations of motion, i.e., they have different dry dynamical cores. The most complete model is the primitive equation (PE) model, which uses the unapproximated momentum equations for each of the three layers. The simplest is the gradient balanced (GB) model, which replaces the three radial momentum equations with gradient balance relations and replaces the boundary layer tangential wind equation with a diagnostic equation that is essentially a high Rossby number version of the local Ekman balance. Numerical integrations of the boundary layer equations confirm that the PE model can produce boundary layer shocks, while the GB model cannot. To better understand these differences in GB and PE dynamics, we also consider two hybrid balanced models (HB1 and HB2), which differ from GB only in their treatment of the boundary layer momentum equations. Because their boundary layer dynamics is more accurate than GB, both HB1 and HB2 can produce results more similar to the PE model, if they are solved in an appropriate manner.
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Open AccessEditorial
Early Career Scientists’ (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology
Meteorology 2023, 2(1), 146-148; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2010010 - 15 Mar 2023
Abstract
The importance of meteorological events is felt in everyday life and the critical impact of the weather on human activities has led to the development of the science of weather forecasting [...]
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))
Open AccessArticle
A Statistical Model for Estimating the Amount of Monthly Global Radiation in the Horizontal Plane
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Meteorology 2023, 2(1), 128-145; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2010009 - 10 Mar 2023
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In addition to dynamic methods, purely statistical models, i.e., findings from the statistical analysis of the existing measured database, also play an important role in predicting the different characteristics of climate elements. In our article, we try to estimate the monthly amount of
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In addition to dynamic methods, purely statistical models, i.e., findings from the statistical analysis of the existing measured database, also play an important role in predicting the different characteristics of climate elements. In our article, we try to estimate the monthly amount of global radiation in each day of the month. In our previous articles, we presented the sliding-average model developed for estimating the average or amount of a climatic element, measured over a time interval, from within the interval. A version of this model for estimating the end-of-interval sums, the sliding-sum model, was used to estimate the amount of monthly global radiation. After generating the characteristics required for the estimation and analyzing their properties, we examined the errors of the performed estimation. Our model can also help solar energy users create the schedule.
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