In this paper, we use an SIRD model to analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, caused by a new virus called SARS-CoV-2 from the coronavirus family. This model is governed by a nonlinear system of differential equations that allows us...
This paper discusses and provides some analytical studies for a modified fractional-order SIRD mathematical model of the COVID-19 epidemic in the sense of the Caputo–Katugampola fractional derivative that allows treating of the biological models of i...
18 June 2021
In this paper, we develop a forecasting model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e., EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press co...
In this study, we developed a compartmental SIRD model to analyze and forecast the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh during the third wave caused by the Indian delta variant. With the help of the nonlinear system of differe...
We selected the COVID-19 outbreak in the state of Oregon, USA as a system for developing a general geographically nuanced epidemiological forecasting model that balances simplicity, realism, and accessibility. Using the life history simulator HexSim,...
Describing viral outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, often involves employing compartmental models composed of ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems. Estimating the parameter values for these ODE models is crucial and relies on accessibl...
During the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, each country has adopted different control measures to contrast the epidemic’s diffusion. Restrictions to mobility, public transport, and social life in general have been actuated to contain the sp...
In this work, we investigate the extended numerical discretization technique for the solution of fractional Bernoulli equations and SIRD epidemic models under the Caputo fractional, which is accurate and versatile. We have demonstrated the method&rsq...
The susceptible–infected–recovered–vaccinated–deceased (SIRVD) epidemic compartment model extends the SIR model to include the effects of vaccination campaigns and time-dependent fatality rates on epidemic outbreaks. It encomp...
27 October 2021
This study utilizes modeling and simulation to analyze coronavirus (COVID-19) infection trends depending on government policies. Two modeling requirements are considered for infection simulation: (1) the implementation of social distancing policies a...
São Paulo is the most populous state in Brazil, home to around 22% of the country’s population. The total number of Covid-19-infected people in São Paulo has reached more than 1 million, while its total death toll stands at 25% of...
Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for accurately predicting and effectively managing epidemic outbreaks. Mathematical modeling serves as an essential tool in such understanding. This study introduces an advanced susceptible, infected, recover...
During the 2020–2021 period, increasingly complex models have been developed to understand the impact of containment measures, to predict pandemic trends, and then to optimally allocate the few vaccines available. The objective of this study is...
Accurate forecasting of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is indispensable for effective public health planning and the allocation of healthcare resources at all levels of governance, both nationally and globally. Conventional prediction...
Background: Clustering type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains a challenge due to its clinical heterogeneity and multifactorial nature. We aimed to evaluate the validity and robustness of the clinical variables in defining T2D subtypes using a discovery-to-pre...
Diabetes is a complex and heterogeneous disease, making the prediction of the risks of diabetic complications challenging. Novel adult-onset diabetes subgroups have been studied using cluster analysis, but its application in East Asians remains uncle...
We study—with existence and unicity results—a variant of the SIR model for an infectious disease incorporating both the possibility of a death outcome—in a short period of time—and a regime switch that can account for the miti...
Background: Metabolic dysfunction is a complex process arising from coordinated interactions among insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, hepatic dysfunction, obesity, low-grade inflammation, and endocrine alterations. The triglyceride–glucose (TyG)...
This paper studies the effects of resource limitations, immunity decay, and delays on an Ebola epidemic model and an optimal control strategy. The model includes two types of delays: a delay in the incubation period of infected individuals and a dela...
South Africa has the highest number of people living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the world, accounting for nearly one in five people living with HIV globally. As of 2021, 8 million people in South Africa were infected with HIV, whi...
Modeling the number of individuals in different states is a principal tool in the event of an epidemic. The natural transition of individuals between possible states often includes deliberate interference such as isolation or vaccination. Thus, the m...
The global explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic has created worldwide unprecedented health and economic challenges which stimulated one of the biggest annual migrations globally. In the Indian context, even after proactive decisions taken by the Govern...
As of March 2021, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 2.7 million people worldwide. Vaccination has started in most countries around the world. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 vaccination for Turk...
Several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in different parts of the world, including Gamma, detected in Brazil, Delta, detected in India, and the recent Omicron variant, detected in South Africa. The emergence of a new variant is a cause of...
Background/Objectives: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous disease. In this study, we aimed to stratify patients with T2D from the Volga-Ural region of Eurasia into distinct subgroups based on clinical characteristics...
The residual agricultural plastic film in China is not easily recovered due to the thinness and poor mechanical properties of domestic films, and a large amount of plastic film remaining in farmland soil poses a great threat to soil quality and crop...