Low-visibility conditions (LVC) are a common cause of air traffic, road, and sailing fatalities. Forecasting those conditions is an arduous challenge for weather forecasters all over the world. In this work, a new decision support system is developed...
The common analog approach and ensemble methods in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting are based on the forecasts from several numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These may be not applicable to the very-short-term PV power forecasting, since f...
Recent flooding events in Spain have highlighted the need to develop real-time flood forecasts to estimate streamflows over the next few hours and days. Therefore, a meteorological forecast that provides possible precipitation for the upcoming hours...
Classic forecasting methods of natural gas consumption extrapolate trends from the past to subsequent periods of time. The paper presents a different approach that uses analogues to create long-term forecasts of the annual natural gas consumption. Th...
Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is both a resource and a hazard in the Philippines. Observation of its spatiotemporal distribution is necessary for water and disaster mitigation management. This study evaluated the performance of two high-resolution s...
A precise estimate of solar energy output is essential for its efficient integration into the power grid as solar energy becomes a more significant renewable energy source. Contrarily, the creation of solar energy involves fluctuation and uncertainty...
This study aimed to address the significant bias in 0–44-day precipitation forecasts under numerical weather conditions. To achieve this, we utilized observational data obtained from 156 surface stations in the Sichuan region and reanalysis gri...
Operational forecasters desire information about how their reservoir and riverine systems will evolve over monthly to seasonal timescales. Seasonal traces of hydrometeorological variables at a daily or sub-daily resolution are needed to drive hydrolo...
The relentless spread of photovoltaic production drives searches of smart approaches to mitigate unbalances in power demand and supply, instability on the grid and ensuring stable revenues to the producer. Because of the development of energy markets...
One way to mitigate the variability of wind and solar power generation is to install the corresponding plants in nearby locations. For example, in Kuwait, the facility at Shagaya Renewable Energy Park is located in a desert area with both photovoltai...
Particulate air pollution has aggravated cardiovascular and lung diseases. Accurate and constant air quality forecasting on a local scale facilitates the control of air pollution and the design of effective strategies to limit air pollutant emissions...
The reconstruction or prediction of meteorological records through the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method is very efficient when the number of predictor time series is small. Thus, in order to take advantage of the richness and diversity of information co...
This study systematically explores existing and new optimization techniques for analog ensemble (AnEn) post-processing of hourly to daily precipitation forecasts over the complex terrain of southwest British Columbia, Canada. An AnEn bias-corrects a...
The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal...
Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is characterized by high stochasticity, symmetry in daily power generation and low predictive accuracy. Enhancing the precision of power forecasting is crucial for improving symmetrical economic operation of the pow...
Seasonal forecasts of crop yield are important components for agricultural policy decisions and farmer planning. A wide range of input data are often needed to forecast crop yield in a region where sophisticated approaches such as machine learning an...
For electronic products, printed circuit boards are employed to fix integrated circuits (ICs) and connect all ICs and electronic components. This allows for the smooth transmission of electronic signals among electronic components. Machine learning (...
Chinese cities are experiencing severe air pollution in particular, with extremely high PM2.5 levels observed in cold seasons. Accurate forecasting of occurrence of such air pollution events in advance can help the community to take action to abate e...
This study shows the application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation and ramps in Japan. SOMs are applied to atmospheric variables obtained from the Japanese 55-year atmospheric Reanalysis JRA-55 over th...
Forecasting demand for newly introduced products presents substantial challenges within high-mix, low-volume manufacturing contexts, primarily due to cold-start conditions and unpredictable order behavior. This research proposes the Dynamic Dual-Phas...
Rising temperatures worldwide pose an existential threat to people, properties, and the environment. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to temperature increases due to the heat island effect, which amplifies local heating. Throughout the world,...
This article presents the results of the conducted research work related to the dynamic forecasting of the difference values for the Polish Time Scale UTC(PL) for real measurement data, prepared in the form of the time series TS1 and TS2. For the pre...
Accurate quantification of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasts is imperative for the efficient and reliable operation of the power grid. In this paper, a data-driven non-parametric probabilistic method based on the Naïve...
The forecasting demand for new technology for which few historical data observations are available is difficult but essential to sustainable development. The current study suggests an alternative forecasting methodology based on a hazard rate model u...
This work aims to verify an authorial forecasting method from a system of interdependent equations, which is based on empirical equations of the structural form and is mainly intended for econometric micromodels. The prediction procedure will be anal...
The use of analog-similar weather patterns for weather forecasting and analysis is an established method in meteorology. The most challenging aspect of using this approach in the context of operational radar applications is to be able to perform a fa...
Predicting the state of a dynamic system influenced by a chaotic immersion environment is an extremely difficult task, in which the direct use of statistical extrapolation computational schemes is infeasible. This paper considers a version of precede...
Based on the Dynamical–Statistical–Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model), the optimal forecast scheme for the tropical cyclone (TC) accumulated precipitation over Hainan Island, China (DSAE...
Typhoon Lekima (2019) with its heavy rains and floods is an excellent example of the need to provide the earliest possible warnings of the formation, intensification, and subsequent track before a typhoon makes landfall along a densely populated coas...
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently updated the comprehensive wind power forecasting system in collaboration with Xcel Energy addressing users’ needs and requirements by enhancing and expanding integration between numer...
In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clust...
Marchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble (ECEPS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble (GEFS) are utilized to provide the Time-to-Formation (T2F of 25 kt or 35 kt) timing...
Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable...
Many of today’s computational design systems based on explicit or graphic programming software require designers to determine relationships for morphogenesis based on computational thinking supported by the abstraction process. This computation...
Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power is crucial for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power systems. However, the practical implementation of forecasting systems often faces challenges due to missing real-time historical power data...
Based on historical tropical cyclone (TC) tracking data and wind data from observation stations, four comparison experiments were designed that considered TC translation speed similarity and five new ensemble schemes in an improved Dynamical-Statisti...
The research work hereby presented, emerges from the urge to answer the well-known question of how the uncertainty of intermittent renewable sources affects the performance of a microgrid and how could we deal with it. More specifically, we want to e...
In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of forecasting techniques can play an advisory role in policymakers’ early implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this article, we pres...
An algorithm that forecasts volcanic activity using an event tree decision making framework and logistic regression has been developed, characterized, and validated. The suite of empirical models that drive the system were derived from a sparse and g...
The validation of initial data is an important process to reduce the risk of errors in calculations. The large amount of heterogeneous data in the area of hydrocarbon reservoirs development leads to a significant increasing in complexity and calculat...
The integration of renewable generation adds complexity to the operation of the power system due to its unpredictable characteristics. Therefore, the development of methods to accurately model the uncertainty is necessary. In this paper, the spatio-t...
This study was conducted to evaluate the suitability of an analog model output statistics (MOS) downscaling technique for urban-scale meteorology research and compares this MOS-Analog technique with the sliding window technique. We downscaled air tem...
In this study, we investigate the changes in the multiyear predictability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) since 1900. A newly developed method, the model-analog method, is used to hindcast the PDO from 1900 to 2015. Model-analog hindcast pro...
18 April 2019
This paper offers certain predictions concerning the demographic population of the cities Vilnius and Olsztyn. The authors used a method of analyzing and synthesizing data sources, and comparing the actual data with the forecast between the years 199...
When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensi...
Addressing the challenges of randomness, volatility, and low prediction accuracy in rural low-carbon photovoltaic (PV) power generation, along with its unique characteristics, is crucial for the sustainable development of rural energy. This paper pre...
The problem of prediction in chaotic environments based on identifying analog situations in arrays of retrospective data are considered. Traditional recognition schemes are ineffective and form weak classifiers in cases where the system component of...
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides flood forecasting and warning services across Australia for most major rivers in Australia, in cooperation with other government, local agencies and emergency services. As part of this service, the Bureau...
Typhoons pose severe threats to coastal regions through destructive winds and extreme rainfall, with rainfall-induced flooding often causing more casualties and economic damage than wind damage alone. Accurate precipitation forecasting is therefore p...
Good characterization of traffic interactions among urban roads can facilitate traffic-related applications, such as traffic control and short-term forecasting. Most studies measure the traffic interaction between two roads by their topological dista...
of 2