GeoHazards

Tropical cyclones (TCs) significantly impact the Caribbean Lesser Antilles, often causing severe wind and water damage. Traditional flood hazard assessments simplify TC rainfall as single-peak, short-duration events tied to specific return periods, overlooking the spatial–temporal variability in rainfall that TCs introduce. To address this limitation, a new user-friendly tool incorporates spatial–temporal rainfall variability into TC-related flood hazard assessments. The tool utilizes satellite precipitation data to break down TC-associated rainfall into distinct pathways/scenarios, mapping them to ground locations and linking them to specific sections of the storm’s rainfall footprint. This approach demonstrates how different areas can be affected differently by the same TC. In this study, we apply the tool to evaluate rainfall patterns and flood hazards in St. George’s, Grenada, during Hurricane Beryl in 2024. The scenario representing the 75th quantile in Spatial Region 2 (S2-Q_0.75) closely matched the actual rainfall observed in the study area. By generating multiple hazard maps based on various rainfall scenarios, the tool provides decision-makers with valuable insights into the multifaced flood hazard risks posed by a single TC. Ultimately, island communities can enhance their early warning and mitigation strategies for TC impacts. Full article

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams. Full article

Floods are the climate hazard that has the greatest socio-economic and territorial impact on the world. The root causes of these events are atmospheric and hydrological phenomena. However, human action usually aggravates their effects, as it alters the normal functioning of the river courses and water flows. The installation of road, rail and hydraulic infrastructures in a floodplain with no prior calculation or appropriate adaptation exacerbates the negative consequences of floods, increasing the extension of the flooded area and the height of the flood waters. This study addresses the problem of the barrier effect generated, on the one hand, by the layout of the N-332 road, as it is built at the same level as the ground, hindering the flow of overflowing water during episodes of flooding, and on the other hand, the channelling wall of the Segura River in the final stretch of its mouth, in the towns of San Fulgencio and Guardamar del Segura. These elements have aggravated flooding in this area. In order to analyse the consequences of the flood, IBER (v.3.3) software has been used to model a flood with similar effects to that of the episode of September 2019. The current situation has also been analysed with two openings in order to determine the effects that a future flood would have. After analysing the results, a proposal to correct the barrier effect of the N-332 road and the new channelling wall of the River Segura has been elaborated upon and then modelled. The results are positive and effective in reducing the negative effects of floods in the lower basin of the River Segura. Full article

Sand dunes protect the most important economic and ecologically critical landscapes from coastal hazards (storms and high-tide flooding). The characteristics of the dune affect their protective ability. This paper qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the relationships between pre- and post-storm conditions for vegetation and the morphology of an incipient dune system along the South Carolina coast. Field-based dune vegetation and morphology measurements were obtained before and after tropical storm Dorian (2019). Vegetation is assessed with respect to distribution and functional type, and subgroups are introduced to categorize land cover transitions. At the quadrat scale (0.2 m²) following the storm, there was a shift from stabilizer to builder, a decrease of sand (2%), and the vegetation remained consistent at around 61% of the land cover. Transect-level analysis (0.2 m × 1.0 m) revealed distinct variability concerning post-storm morphology change in the extreme study site extents. Dorian resulted in approximately 10% volumetric loss over the entire study site (101 m²). This study demonstrated changes to a dune system following a tropical storm with wind as the dominant forcing factor. This study revealed that vegetation presence is not broadly correlated with reduced levels of post-storm erosion. Full article

Climate change (CC) is expected to cause significant changes in weather patterns, leading to extreme phenomena. Specifically, the intensity of precipitation extremes is continuously escalating, even in regions with decreasing average precipitation levels. Given that CC leads to long-term shifts in weather patterns and may affect the precipitation characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and intensity) directly related to groundwater table fluctuations and soil erosion phenomena, it has the potential to significantly affect soil slope instabilities. In turn, slope stability and the structural integrity of nearby structures and infrastructure will be affected. Accordingly, the present paper focuses on the impact of CC on the geohazard of soil slope instability by considering both hydrological aspects, i.e., the impact on rainfall intensity on the groundwater table and the geotechnical aspects of this complex problem. The findings reveal that the impact of CC on potential slope instabilities can be detrimental or even beneficial, depending on the specific site and water conditions. Therefore, it is essential to do the following: (a) collect all the available data of the area of interest, (b) assess their variations over time, and (c) examine each potentially unstable slope on a case-by-case basis to properly mitigate this geohazard. Full article

Vertical creep along 15 ground ruptures within a 15 km long and 1.5 km wide zone has been occurring along the southeastern part of Metro Manila. Though the unusually high rates of vertical slip point to excessive groundwater withdrawal as the trigger, the evidence presented herein indicates that these may not be simple irregular subsidence fissures. Tectonic control of creep along these traces is suggested by the following: the occurrence of some of these ground ruptures along pre-existing scarps that coincide with topographic and lithologic boundaries, the left-stepping en echelon pattern of surface rupturing, and the distribution of the creeping zone within the dilational gap of the dextral strike-slip West Valley Fault (WVF). Furthermore, interpretation of an exposure across one of the creeping faults indicates reactivation by creep of a pre-existing tectonic fault zone. The paleoseismic evidence also suggests that the pre-creep slips are coseismic and dominantly strike-slip. Recognizing the occurrence of coseismic slip preceding aseismic creep is a primary consideration in assessing the potential of the WVF’s creeping segment and its adjacent segments in generating earthquakes. Tighter groundwater extraction regulations may be necessary to avoid exacerbating the effects of vertical ground deformation and the occurrence of induced seismicity. Full article

Using the existing two-dimensional experimental data and Open-source Fields Operation and Manipulation (OpenFOAM) software, this study performs a comprehensive comparative analysis of three types of landslide-generated tsunamis (subaerial, partially submerged, and submarine). The primary objective was to assess whether numerical simulations can accurately reproduce the experimental results of each type and to compare the predictive equations of the tsunami amplitudes derived from experimental and simulated data. The mesh size and dynamic viscosity parameters were initially optimized for a specific partially submerged landslide tsunami scenario and then applied across a broader range of experimental scenarios. Most of the simulated wave amplitudes remained within the 50% error margin, although significant discrepancies were observed between landslide types. When focusing on the crest amplitude of the first wave, the simulations of subaerial landslides least deviated from the experimental data, with a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 20%, versus approximately 40% for the partially submerged and submarine landslides. The predictive equations derived from the simulations closely matched those from the experimental data, confirming that OpenFOAM can effectively capture complex landslide–tsunami dynamics. Nonetheless, variations in the coefficients related to slope angles highlight the need for further calibration to enhance the simulation fidelity. Full article

Sediment management is fundamental for managing mountain watercourses and their upslope catchment. A multidisciplinary approach—not limited to the discipline of hydraulics—is necessary for investigating the alterations in sediment transport along the watercourse by detecting those reaches dominated by erosion and deposition processes, by quantifying the sediment volume change, by assessing the functionality of the existing torrent control structures, and by delimitating the riparian vegetation patches. To pursue these goals, specific continuous monitoring is essential, despite being extremely rare in mountain catchments. The present study proposed an integrated approach to determine the hydro-morphological–sedimentological–ecological state of a mountain watercourse though field- and desk-based analyses. Such an integral approach includes a rainfall–runoff model, a morphological change analysis and the application of empirical formulations for estimating peak discharge, mobilizable sediment/large wood volume and watercourse hydraulic capacity, at reach and catchment scales. The procedure was tested on the Upper Adda River catchment (North Italy). The results identified where and with what priority maintenance and monitoring activities must be carried out, considering sediment regime, torrent control structures and vegetation. This study is an example of how it is possible to enhance all existing information through successive qualitative and quantitative approximations and to concentrate new resources (human and economic) on specific gaps, for drafting a scientifically robust and practical sediment management plan. Full article

On 19 September 2021, a strombolian volcanic eruption began on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. This event resulted in the destruction of 73 km of roads, urban infrastructure, numerous houses, and agricultural crops, affecting approximately 7200 people and causing losses exceeding 1.2 billion euros. Around 12 km² were covered by aa and pahoehoe lava flows, which reached thicknesses of over 70 m. Following the end of the eruption, thermal, geological, and geotechnical site investigations were carried out for the reconstruction and territorial and urban planning, with the main objectives focused on opening roads through hot lava, constructing new urban settlements in areas covered by lava flows, and facilitating the agricultural recovery. The primary challenges to reconstruction included the very slow cooling rate of the lava, resulting in persistent high temperatures, exceeding 500 °C, its highly heterogeneous geotechnical properties with numerous cavities and lava caves, and the presence of toxic gases. Site investigations included geotechnical boreholes, seismic geophysics and ground-penetration radar, and temperature measurements of lava flows using drones and thermocouple devices inside boreholes. To estimate the cooling rates of the lava flows, two physical cooling models were developed based on thermal behavior and geological–geotechnical data. The results indicated that lava cooling durations in some areas exceed practical waiting times for commencing reconstruction. This led to the development of geological engineering solutions that permit road construction and urban and agricultural reconstruction to begin sooner than estimated by the cooling models. On the other hand, potential hazards arising from the eruption process have also been taken into account. Stability analyses of the 200 m high volcanic cone formed during the eruption indicate the possibility of failure in the event of heavy rain and consequently lahar hazards. The results of the investigations carried out and their applications to post-disaster reconstruction may be useful for other volcanic regions, contributing to minimizing risk to infrastructure and urban settlements. Full article

This research examines the seismic behavior of a cable-stayed bridge featuring concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) pylons, which includes the seesaw system. The objective of the study is to assess the efficacy of the seesaw system in mitigating the seismic response of the bridge across various earthquake scenarios, while also accounting for the implications of soil–structure interaction (SSI). A comprehensive finite element model of the bridge is constructed, incorporating the CFST pylons, cable system, and the novel seesaw energy dissipation system. This model is tested against a range of ground motions that reflect different seismic hazard levels and characteristics. The impact of SSI is analyzed through a series of parametric studies that explore various soil conditions and foundation types. The findings indicate that the implementation of the seesaw system markedly decreases the seismic demands placed on the bridge structure, particularly regarding deck displacements, pylon base shear, and cable forces. Furthermore, the study underscores the significant influence of SSI on the dynamic behavior of the bridge system, emphasizing the necessity of its inclusion in seismic design and analysis. This research enhances the understanding of seismic protection strategies for cable-stayed bridges, providing valuable insights into the advantages of integrating energy dissipation systems and recognizing the importance of SSI effects in evaluating seismic performance. Full article

Floods pose significant challenges globally, particularly in coastal regions like the Philippines, which are vulnerable to typhoons and subsequent inundations. This study focuses on Naic city in Cavite, Philippines, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop flood risk maps employing two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods including Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). These maps integrate hazard, vulnerability, and exposure assessments to identify structures most vulnerable to flooding. Weight assignments in the study are derived from a literature review and expert opinions, reflecting the Philippines’ flood-prone geography and historical data. Structural attributes, categorized on a low to very high scale, were assessed based on field survey data from 555 buildings. AHP categorized 91.3% of buildings as moderate to very high risk, whereas TOPSIS placed 68% in this category, underscoring methodological disparities in data handling and assumptions. This research enhances understanding of flood threats and offers a decision-making framework for resilient flood risk management strategies. Identifying vulnerable buildings aims to support informed urban planning and disaster preparedness in flood-prone areas, thereby mitigating potential property, infrastructure, and livelihood damage. Full article

Rwanda, in eastern tropical Africa, is a small, densely populated country where climatic disasters are often the cause of considerable damage and deaths. Landslides are among the most frequent hazards, linked to the country’s peculiar configuration including high relief with steep slopes, humid tropical climate with heavy rainfall, intense deforestation over the past 60 years, and extensive use of the soil for agriculture. The Karongi region, in the west-central part of the country, was affected by an exceptional cluster of more than 700 landslides during a single night (6–7 May 2018) over an area of 100 km². We analyse the causes of this spectacular event based on field geological and geomorphology investigation and CHIRPS and ERA5-Land climate data. We demonstrate that (1) the notably steep slopes favoured soil instability; (2) the layered soil and especially the gravelly, porous C horizon allowed water storage and served as a detachment level for the landslides; (3) relatively low intensity, almost continuous rainfall over the previous two months lead to soil water-logging; and (4) acoustic waves from thunder or mechanical shaking by strong wind destabilized the water-logged soil through thixotropy triggering the landslides. This analysis should serve as a guide for forecasting landslide-triggering conditions in Rwanda. Full article

The Global Historical Megatsunamis Catalog (GHMCat) is presented for the first time, including events with the largest waves recorded in historical times. An objective criterion is established to identify megatsunamis based on the maximum wave height (runup) of all recorded events. A threshold value of 35 m for maximum wave height is proposed based on the analysis of the statistical distribution of the maximum wave heights documented. The catalog was compiled through a systematic review and verification of tsunami events from the two existing Global Historical Tsunami Databases (GHTDs). A list of 40 megatsunamis from 1674 to the present is presented, including descriptions of their maximum wave heights, causes and sources according to the available and verified information, along with the main bibliographical references that support the data gathered in the catalog. The majority of megatsunamis have originated from large landslides, predominantly subaerial, with fewer caused by submarine landslides or associated with volcanic explosions. The geographical distribution of source locations shows that megatsunamis most frequently occur in bays and fjords in glaciated areas and in inland bodies of water, such as lakes and rivers. Notably, certain regions of Alaska and Norway experienced an unusual frequency of megatsunamis, particularly in the early 20th century. The information provided by the GHMCat allows for a comprehensive historical overview of megatsunamis, establishing relationships between their causes, wave heights, and geographic distribution over the past 350 years. This may contribute to advancing the study of the causes and origins of megatsunamis and aid in their prevention in high-risk regions. Full article

The 1755 Lisbon earthquake holds significant historical importance in Portuguese history. The subsequent tsunami resulted in extensive destruction and damage, affecting not only Lisbon but also other regions of Portugal, Spain, and North Africa. This significant and hazardous event led to an increase in awareness about earthquake and tsunami risks, not only within Portugal but throughout Europe. This heightened awareness facilitated advancements in scientific developments, including design codes, standards, and earthquake engineering. However, recent studies focusing on hazard assessment for Lisbon are limited. For this reason, this paper aims to present a comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Lisbon metropolitan area. The first stage of PSHA involves defining applicable and active seismic source models (area and line sources) within the study area. Subsequently, historical and instrumental earthquake records are collected to build a homogenized earthquake catalog, utilizing both global and local earthquake databases. Following this, the completeness level of the earthquake catalog is tested. By incorporating suitable ground motion models to the region and local soil characteristics, seismic hazard maps for various return periods and hazard curves in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) are developed. The findings based on the area source model agree with existing literature, indicating PGA values ranging from 0.3 g to 0.9 g, 0.2 g to 0.7 g, 0.2 g to 0.5 g, and 0.1 g to 0.3 g for return periods of 2475, 975, 475, and 50 years, respectively. Full article

In slopes where high pore water pressure exists, deep counterfort drains (also called drainage trenches or trench drains) represent one of the most effective methods for improving stability or mitigating landslide risks. In the cases of deep or very deep slip surfaces, this method represents the only possible intervention. Trench drains can be realized by using panels or secant piles filled with coarse granular material or permeable concrete. If the trenches are adequately “socket” into the stable ground (for example sufficiently below the sliding surface of a landslide or below the critical slip surface of marginally stable slopes) and the filling material has sufficient shear strength and stiffness, like porous concrete, there is a further increase in shear strength due to the “shear keys” effect. The increase in shear strength is due both to the intrinsic resistance of the concrete on the sliding surface and the resistance at the concrete–soil interface (on the lateral surface of the trench). The latter can be very significant in relation to the thickness of the sliding mass, the “socket depth”, and the spacing between the trenches. The increase in shear strength linked to the “shear keys effect” depends on the state of the porous concrete–soil interface. For silty–clayey base soils, it is very significant and is of the same order of magnitude as the increase in shear resistance linked to the permanent reduction on the slip surface in pore water pressure (draining effect). This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the shear strength at the porous interface of concrete and fine-grained soils and demonstrates the high significance and effectiveness of the “shear keys” effect. Full article

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSDs) consist of gravity-induced, large-scale, gradual rock mass movements. In the Aosta Valley region (Valle d’Aosta NW Italy), DSGDs affect wide valley slopes and produce several interconnected morpho-structures that involve bedrock and Quaternary cover. Some DSGSD effects are not visible at the surface because of subglacial abrasion or burial by sediments and, therefore, are difficult to map with standard geomorphological surveys. This is the case for the Pointe Leysser DSGSD in the Aosta Valley, which is heavily influenced by the historical movements of the Verrogne-Clusellaz Glacier and its tributaries. We conducted a new geological investigation, integrated with deep electrical resistivity tomography geophysical surveys (ERTs). The ERT results were initially compared with geological/geomorphological evidence at the surface to define the correlation between the values and spatial distributions of electrical resistivity and the sediments, rocks, or morpho-structures. The resistivity values at various depths were subsequently analysed, interpreted, and discussed in conjunction with geological hypotheses. The geological and geophysical survey revealed three wide buried glacial valleys filled with glacial sediments and mapped the locations of gravitational morpho-structures at depth. These new data allowed us to draw a relationship between glacialism and gravitational evolution, distinguishing between pre-singlacial movements and postglacial movements. Full article

Urban flooding is becoming more frequent and severe due to the impact of climate change, underscoring the urgent need for effective flood risk management. This study investigates the dynamics of flood risk through two decades, from 2000 to 2020, in New Orleans, United States—a city historically marked by catastrophic flooding events. This research also explores the spatial patterns of socially vulnerable neighborhoods at the census tract level and patterns that have changed over the two decades. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to indirectly evaluate flood risks over time utilizing Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery and geospatial analyses. Thematic mapping and geospatial analysis were used to generate maps revealing neighborhoods at the intersection of high flood risk and social vulnerability in New Orleans. Integrating flood maps derived from satellite observations with Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) calculations provides a comprehensive view of flood dynamics in the context of social vulnerability in an urban setting. The final composite products provide insight into zones where past resilience-building and risk-reduction efforts have reduced vulnerability in New Orleans and identify zones requiring intervention. The findings demonstrate how integrated data-driven analysis can inform urban infrastructure and policy development, thereby promoting discussions on urban resilience and the nuanced understanding of interactions between urban settings and flood risks, potentially aiding in implementing adaptive strategies to build resilience in New Orleans. Full article

The present study analyzes students’ weather-related hazard and risk literacy in Greece, a climate change hotspot region in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this context, we examine the students’ level in two core literacy variables, namely knowledge and competency. In addition, we explore how knowledge, attitudes, and socio-demographic variables influence students’ competencies related to weather and climate risk assessment and adaptability. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted on 474 students aged 12–16. The regression results showed that knowledge significantly affects the level of competency. Self-belief and confidence in science were the most influential among the attitudinal variables. We conclude by discussing the educational and behavioral issues highlighted as essential to address them with targeted policies and measures in formal education complemented by non-formal educational activities. We also propose future education requirements like further integration of real-world applications and advanced technologies to enhance students’ literacy in weather-related hazards and risks. Full article

Over the past few decades, cities have experienced increased floods affecting property and threatening human life as a result of a warming planet. There is still an incomplete understanding of the flood risk patterns in urban communities with different socioeconomic characteristics. In this study, we produced separate flood exposure and vulnerability indices based on relevant factors, then combined them as a risk index for Houston, Texas and Charleston, West Virginia. We applied statistical methods to extract the most significant social vulnerability factors in each study area. Finally, we mapped significant hot spots or clusters of high flood risk and compared results to socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Based on the results, high-risk or 1%-annual-chance floodplains cover 23% of the Houston and 7% of Charleston study areas. Within these floodplains, 13% of the total developed land in Houston and 9% in Charleston are situated. In the event of a 1%-annual-chance flood, an estimated 5% of the total population in Houston and 6% in Charleston may require evacuation. Statistically significant flood risk clusters could only be identified in Houston. The implications from this work help to provide an analysis framework for larger urban areas while offering suggestions for its improvement in smaller populated areas. Full article