GeoHazards

The role of the Manning roughness coefficient in modifying a tsunami time series of flow depth inundation was studied in Iquique, Chile, using a single synthetic earthquake scenario. A high-resolution digital surface model was used as a reference configuration, and several bare land models using constant roughness were tested with different grid resolutions. As previously reported, increasing the Manning n value beyond the standard values is essential to reproduce mean statistics such as the inundated area extent and maximum flow depth. The arrival time showed to be less sensitive to changes in the Manning n value, at least in terms of the magnitude of the error. However, increasing the Manning n value too much leads to a critical change in the characteristics of the flow, which departs from its bore-like structure to a more gradual and persistent inundation. It was found that it is possible to find a Manning n value that resembles most features of the reference flow using less resolution in the numerical grids. This allows us to speed up inundation tsunami modeling, which could be useful when multiple inundation simulations are required. Full article

Climate change is expected to raise river discharge and sea level in the future, and these near-term changes could alter the river flow regime and sedimentation pattern of future floods. Present hazard assessment studies have limitations in considering such morpho-dynamic responses in evaluating flood hazards or risks. Here, we present a multi-model-based approach to quantify such potential hazard parameters influenced by climate change for the most vulnerable communities living on river bars and islands of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River. River flood-flow and flood wave propagation characteristics are predicted to be affected by changing temporal distribution patterns of precipitation as a result of enhanced global warming. Increased incidences of large multi-peak floods or uncommon floods resulting in long-duration floods driven by sea-level rise may happen as a result of this. To assess it, we have set up a hydromorphic model, Delft3D, for the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River forced by upstream flow, generated from a hydrological model SWAT, over the Brahmaputra basin. The simulations cover moderate, wettest, and driest conditions of the RCP8.5 scenario, and the results reflect the flooding consequences of the near-future, mid-century, and end-century. Floods in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River are becoming more severe, frequent, and long-lasting, as a result of climate change, and are expected to last until the end of November rather than the current September timeline. While assessing the hazard, we found that the pattern and timing of the flood are as equally important as the peak of the flood, as the river continuously adjusts its cross-sectional area with the flow. The study also demonstrates that, depending on their location/position, climate-induced hazards can affect sand bars/islands disproportionally. The high flood depth, duration, and sedimentation have a significant impact on the sand bars downstream of the river, making them more vulnerable. Full article

As an earthquake is capable of causing significant losses, a strain buildup and release model following an earthquake is of importance for mitigation purposes. In this study, we aim to model strain buildup and release on a strike-slip fault which consists of elastic–brittle (upper crust) and elastic–viscous (lower crust and upper mantle) layers using a finite element model. The fault strength during strain buildup is controlled by the friction coefficient and cohesion, in addition to the viscoelastic parameter, as shown in the deformation model using Maxwell’s material. In the strain buildup model, we found that the differential stress on the elastic layer is larger than that on the viscoelastic layer and that the differential stress increases with the thickness of the elastic layer. When the viscoelastic layer is thinner, the deformation observed on the surface is larger. However, the differential of stress in the strain release model on the elastic layer is smaller than that on the viscoelastic layer, which shows the transfer stress from the lower crust and upper mantle to the upper crust. Using the knowledge gained by varying the thickness and frictional strength of the lithosphere, we discuss the seismicity pattern observed along the Great Sumatran Fault. Full article

Although accurate root cohesion model estimates are essential to quantify the effect of vegetation roots on shallow slope stability, few means exist to independently validate such model outputs. One validation approach for cohesion estimates is back-calculation of apparent root cohesion at a landslide site with well-documented failure conditions. The catchment named CB1, near Coos Bay, Oregon, USA, which experienced a shallow landslide in 1996, is a prime locality for cohesion model validation, as an abundance of data and observations from the site generated broad insights related to hillslope hydrology and slope stability. However, previously published root cohesion values at CB1 used the Wu and Waldron model (WWM), which assumes simultaneous root failure and therefore likely overestimates root cohesion. Reassessing published cohesion estimates from this site is warranted, as more recently developed models include the fiber bundle model (FBM), which simulates progressive failure with load redistribution, and the root bundle model-Weibull (RBMw), which accounts for differential strain loading. We applied the WWM, FBM, and RBMw at CB1 using post-failure root data from five vegetation species. At CB1, the FBM and RBMw predict values that are less than 30% of the WWM-estimated values. All three models show that root cohesion has substantial spatial heterogeneity. Most parts of the landslide scarp have little root cohesion, with areas of high cohesion concentrated near plant roots. These findings underscore the importance of using physically realistic models and considering lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of root cohesion in shallow landslide initiation and provide a necessary step towards independently assessing root cohesion model validity. Full article

In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused widespread destruction and displacement in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. This research evaluates determinants of displacement and, conditional on being displaced, the duration of displacement for households living in areas affected by these hurricanes. Hurdle Models, which assume that different processes govern zero outcomes (i.e., no displacement) and positive outcomes (i.e., amount of time displaced), are used to model the likelihood of household displacement and its duration as a function of socioeconomic characteristics, hurricane-caused property and neighborhood damage, social support, and financial assistance. Results show that mobile home residence, marital status, educational attainment, the presence of children, and property and neighborhood damage affect the likelihood and expected length of displacement among sample respondents. Financial assistance and social support are also correlated with displacement and its duration, but endogeneity concerns complicate the interpretation of these results. The findings highlight the diversity of factors that slow households’ return following displacement and underscore the need for additional research on the role of social capital in determining hazard-related outcomes. Full article

There are still gaps in defining values and category classifications of exposed items in quantitative damage analysis. This paper proposes a framework that refines the development of flood risk analysis at a local scale. This study first performs a quantitative risk analysis, based mainly on secondary data; it then attempts to communicate the results graphically, aiming to reduce the financial and human resources required. We propose an easily standardized database in a GIS environment, analyzing the influence of a reservoir for flood control and the construction of replicable local-scale risk curves. Hydrological (HEC-HMS) and 2D hydrodynamic (HEC-RAS) models were used to simulate hydrographs considering different return periods. For damage estimation, the processing included vectorization of lots, building use definition with Google Street View, classification of standard designs, and a field survey to validate those classes. In monetary value, this study calculated the effect of the construction of a reservoir for damage reduction, showing the potential to determine the effectiveness of measures adopted to mitigate flood impacts. In addition, for each simulated return period, exposure, hazard, and damage maps can be established, making it possible to perform a complete risk analysis. Full article

Real-time local tsunami warnings embody uncertainty from unknowns in the source definition within the first minutes after the tsunami generates. In general, Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS) provide a quick estimate for tsunami action from deterministic simulations of a single event. In this study, variability in tsunami source parameters has been included by running 135 tsunami simulations; besides this, four different computational domains in the northeastern Atlantic ocean have been considered, resulting in 540 simulations associated with a single event. This was done for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz with impact in the western Iberian peninsula and the Canary Islands. A first answer is provided after one minute, and 7 min are required to perform all the simulations in the four computational domains. The fast computation allows alert levels all along the coast to be incorporated into the Spanish National Tsunami Early Warning System. The main findings are that the use of a set of scenarios that account for the uncertainty in source parameters can produce higher tsunami warnings in certain coastal areas than those obtained from a single deterministic reference scenario. Therefore, this work shows that considering uncertainties in tsunami source parameters helps to avoid possible tsunami warning level underestimations. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that this is possible to do in real time in an actual TWS with the use of high-performance computing resources. Full article

Tsunami inundation estimates are of crucial importance to hazard and risk assessments. In the context of tsunami forecast, numerical simulations are becoming more feasible with the growth of computational power. Uncertainties regarding source determination within the first minutes after a tsunami generation might be a major concern in the issuing of an appropriate warning on the coast. However, it is also crucial to investigate differences emerging from the chosen algorithms for the tsunami simulations due to a dependency of the outcomes on the suitable model settings. In this study, we compare the tsunami inundation in three cities in central Chile (Coquimbo, Viña del Mar, and Valparaíso) using three different models (TsunAWI, Tsunami-HySEA, COMCOT) while varying the parameters such as bottom friction. TsunAWI operates on triangular meshes with variable resolution, whereas the other two codes use nested grids for the coastal area. As initial conditions of the experiments, three seismic sources (2010 $Mw$ 8.8 Maule, 2015 $Mw$ 8.3 Coquimbo, and 1730 $Mw$ 9.1 Valparaíso) are considered for the experiments. Inundation areas are determined with high-resolution topo-bathymetric datasets based on specific wetting and drying implementations of the numerical models. We compare each model’s results and sensitivities with respect to parameters such as bottom friction and bathymetry representation in the varying mesh geometries. The outcomes show consistent estimates for the nearshore wave amplitude of the leading wave crest based on identical seismic source models within the codes. However, with respect to inundation, we show high sensitivity to Manning values where a non-linear behaviour is difficult to predict. Differences between the relative decrease in inundation areas and the Manning n-range (0.015–0.060) are high (11–65%), with a strong dependency on the characterization of the local topo-bathymery in the Coquimbo and Valparaíso areas. Since simulations carried out with such models are used to generate hazard estimates and warning products in an early tsunami warning context, it is crucial to investigate differences that emerge from the chosen algorithms for the tsunami simulations. Full article

Operational TEWS play a key role in reducing tsunami impact on populated coastal areas around the world in the event of an earthquake-generated tsunami. Traditionally, these systems in the NEAM region have relied on the implementation of decision matrices. The very short arrival times of the tsunami waves from generation to impact in this region have made it not possible to use real-time on-the-fly simulations to produce more accurate alert levels. In these cases, when time restriction is so demanding, an alternative to the use of decision matrices is the use of datasets of precomputed tsunami scenarios. In this paper we propose the use of neural networks to predict the tsunami maximum height and arrival time in the context of TEWS. Different neural networks were trained to solve these problems. Additionally, ensemble techniques were used to obtain better results. Full article

The application of simulation software has proven to be a crucial tool for tsunami hazard assessment studies. Understanding the potentially devastating effects of tsunamis leads to the development of safety and resilience measures, such as the design of evacuation plans or the planning of the economic investment necessary to quickly mitigate their consequences. This article introduces a pseudo-probabilistic seismic-triggered tsunami simulation approach to investigate the potential impact of tsunamis in the southwestern coast of Spain, in the provinces of Huelva and Cádiz. Selected faults, probabilistic distributions and sampling methods are presented as well as some results for the nearly 900 Atlantic-origin tsunamis computed along the 250 km-long coast. Full article

In this study, an alternative method for conducting probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is developed based on stochastic source modeling and analytical formulae for evaluating the elastic dislocation due to an earthquake rupture. It characterizes the uncertainty of fault-rupture occurrence in terms of its position, geometry, and slip distribution and adopts so-called Okada equations for the calculation of fault displacement on the ground surface. The method is compatible with fault-source-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and can be implemented via Monte Carlo simulations. The new method is useful for evaluating the differential displacements caused by the fault rupture at multiple locations simultaneously. The proposed method is applied to the Leech River Valley Fault located in the vicinity of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. Site-specific fault displacement and differential fault displacement hazard curves are assessed for multiple sites within the fault-rupture zone. The hazard results indicate that relatively large displacements (∼0.5 m vertical uplift) can be expected at low probability levels of 10⁻⁴. For critical infrastructures, such as bridges and pipelines, quantifying the uncertainty of fault displacement hazard is essential to manage potential damage and loss effectively. Full article

A well-known landslide dam that collapsed and generated a large outburst flood is used to show the importance of forensic geology analysis, which is the on-site multidisciplinary study of geohazards carries out as soon as possible after their occurrence; this study is focused on understanding the complete spectrum of all mechanisms that caused the disaster. Diagnostic elements of all natural processes fade with time, allowing for progressively divergent interpretations that may impact the appropriateness of potential mitigation actions, as we demonstrate. The multidisciplinary field control of the abrupt rupture of a natural dam on the Santa Cruz River on 12 November 2005, that released c. 37 million m³ of water and sediment, can radically change the interpretation of how this dam collapsed. In situ sedimentological, geomorphological and topographical analyses of the remains of the collapsed natural dam suggest it was built in two mass-wasting episodes instead of one, as previously interpreted, involving different slide materials. The first episode matches previous interpretations; a landslide that evolved into a rock avalanche, generating an initial dam of high stability due to its density, and observed angles of repose. This dam was not removed completely during the rupture, but rather suffered minor erosion at its top by the flood drag effect. The second episode is interpreted as a snow-dominated mixed avalanche, reaching much greater heights on the opposite side of the valley. This avalanche is estimated to be 85% snow, 8% debris and 7% ice-cemented permafrost fragments, and is evidenced by a thin residual deposit draping the valley sides, as most of this deposit melted out before any field control was undertaken. The growth of the lake level, along with the dam weight loss due to ablation, generated the hydrostatic instability that caused the floating of the central sector of this second dam and the violent evacuation of the water, similar to a jökulhlaup. This analysis explains the partial dam collapse, sudden water release and the preserved field evidence. This different interpretation suggests that the mitigation actions already taken can be improved and that monitoring systems are urgently needed. A rapid and professional assessment of any large-scale geohazard site would be the way to avoid interpretation discrepancies, and to guarantee that mitigation actions taken are adequate. Learning from this event may help decision makers to take better mitigation measures and potentially save lives. Full article

Estimation of urban seismic damage using numerical simulation needs an automatic modeling method of surface layers and residential buildings. This study focuses on modeling of surface layers and shows a method of constructing models by interpolating boring data. An important property of the modeling method is robustness, that means that the method works for boring data with inconsistent soil layers. To satisfy this, we developed the method using artificial layers. We applied the method to a test site and checked its robustness. This test also showed that the method gave realistic models. Finally, we applied the method to the estimation of urban seismic damage and discussed the usefulness by comparing the result with one obtained by a conventional method. Full article

This study intends to evaluate the possible correlation between the correlation dimension (D_C) and the seismic moment rate for different late Quaternary active fault data, shallow crustal earthquakes, and GPS on the island of Sumatra Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The seismicity smoothing was applied to estimate the D_C of active faults (D_F) and earthquake data (D_E) and then to correlate that with the b-value, which will be used to identify seismic hazard functions (SHF) along with the Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ). The seismicity based on GPS data was calculated by the seismic moment rate that is estimated based on pre-seismic horizontal surface displacement data. The correlation between D_F, D_E, and the b-value was analyzed, and a reasonable correlation between the two seismotectonic parameters, D_F-b, and D_E-b, respectively, could be found. The relatively high D_C coincides with the high seismic moment rate model derived from the pre-seismic GPS data. Furthermore, the SHF curve of total probability of exceedance versus the mean of each observation point’s peak ground acceleration (PGA) shows that the relatively high correlation dimension coincides with the high SHF. The results of this study might be very beneficial for seismic mitigation in the future. Full article

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and measures presenting promising initial results for a region of Southern California from 1950–2020. Earthquake activity is predicted as a function of 0.1-degree spatial bins for time periods varying from two weeks to four years. The overall quality is measured by the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency comparing the deviation of nowcast and observation with the variance over time in each spatial region. The software is available as open source together with the preprocessed data from the USGS. Full article

Disasters result where hazards and vulnerabilities intersect. The concept of vulnerability itself is mainly a social construct and the extent to which this can be overcome while transforming disaster-prone systems has often been emphasised in the critical hazard literature. However, the extent to which community-based organisations contribute to post-disaster transformation at the community level remains unexamined. This paper is aimed at examining the extent of the role of community-based organisations (CBOs) in the transformative adaptation of post-earthquake Lyttelton. Quantitative data was obtained from community members using a questionnaire survey of 107 respondents, supporting interviews, and secondary data to explain the phenomenon in this study. System dynamics and agent-based modelling tools were applied to analyse the data. The results show that while CBOs played a major role in Lyttelton’s transformation by fostering collaboration, innovation, and awareness, the extent of their impact was determined by differences in their adaptive capacities. The transformation was influenced by the impacts of community initiatives that were immediate, during, and a long time after the disaster recovery activities in the community. Our research extends the discourse on the role of community-based organisations in disaster recovery by highlighting the extent of CBOs’ impacts in community post-disaster transformation. Full article

Since huge earthquakes are expected along plate subduction zones such as the Japan Trench and Nankai Trough, the estimation of coseismic slip and interseismic slip deficit is essential for immediate response and preliminary measures to reduce damage. Recently, analysis considering the complex topography and underground structure of the plate subduction zone has been performed for improving the estimation performance. However, the three-dimensional (3D) crustal structural model needs to be improved continuously. In this paper, we obtained Green’s functions for 3D crustal structural models with ambiguity by 3D crustal deformation analysis, and the coseismic slip and interseismic slip deficit were estimated. Here we enabled the calculation of many Green’s functions with different physical properties of the 3D crustal structure by utilizing a GPU-based 3D crustal deformation analysis method that significantly reduces the analysis cost. The physical properties on the upper plate’s side, which are located above the plate boundary fault, were changed. We found no significant difference in the estimation performance, except for the upper crust, which most of the fault slip area is in contact with, in the case of coseismic slip estimation. In contrast, the coseismic slip estimation when the properties of the upper crust was changed had a significant error, and a negative slip was estimated at the deep part of the plate boundary where no slip was originally given. Full article

During major disasters, such as a subduction earthquake and the associated tsunami, combinations of uncommon conditions such as non-functioning traffic signals, a large number of pedestrians on traffic lanes, and debris scattered on roads can be widespread. It is vital to take these uncommon conditions into account since they can significantly influence the evacuation progress. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with capabilities to reproduce evacuees’ behaviors as emergent phenomena is promising method to simulate combinations of such rare conditions. This paper presents a new model to cover the current research gap in accurately modeling car–car and car–pedestrian interactions at non-signalized junctions. Specifically, the details of accurately approximating car trajectories at junctions and automated construction, approximating free-flow speed of cars along curved trajectories, and accurately calculating the points of collision and time to collision are presented. As a demonstrative application, we simulated a hypothetical evacuation scenario with non-functioning traffic signals in which different numbers of slow evacuees are allowed to use cars. While the ABM is yet to be thoroughly validated, the presented demonstrative scenarios indicates that a considerable number of the needy can be allowed to use cars for evacuation if their routes and evacuation start time window are well planned. Full article

To protect the coastal areas of the seas and oceans from the destructive force of tsunami waves, coastal and surface barriers are usually built. However, for high waves, these barriers turn into underwater barriers through which tsunami waves pass practically without losing their energy. In this paper, we study a new principle of suppression of the energy of tsunami waves by underwater barriers. The problems of experimental and numerical modeling of the processes of generation, propagation, and interaction of gravity wave of the tsunami type with underwater barriers are considered. It is shown that, under certain conditions near the underwater barriers, large-scale vortex structures occur that accumulate a significant part of the energy of the incident wave. Here, if the barriers parameter h/(H + A) = 0.84 ÷ 0.85 (h—height of the barriers, A—amplitude of incident wave on a barrier, H—depth of the reservoir), then the vortex structures accumulate up to 50% of the wave energy incident on the barrier. A theoretical model explaining the effect of anomalous vortex suppression of tsunami wave energy by underwater barriers has been developed. Theoretical calculations and results of numerical modeling based on the Navier–Stokes Equations are consistent with experimental studies in a hydrodynamic wave flume. Full article