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Open AccessArticle

Statistical Downscaling of Urban-scale Air Temperatures Using an Analog Model Output Statistics Technique

Research Center for Atmospheric Environment, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 02401 Seoul, Korea
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Atmosphere 2019, 10(8), 427; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080427
Received: 22 May 2019 / Revised: 17 July 2019 / Accepted: 24 July 2019 / Published: 25 July 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Meteorology)
This study was conducted to evaluate the suitability of an analog model output statistics (MOS) downscaling technique for urban-scale meteorology research and compares this MOS-Analog technique with the sliding window technique. We downscaled air temperatures forecasted for the Seoul metropolitan area from 1.5 km resolution (using data from the Unified Model-Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System, UM-LDAPS) to 25 m resolution using the analog MOS technique described in the paper. The support vector machine (SVM) technique was employed for empirical computational modeling, using urban surface parameters calculated using the Climate Analysis Seoul (CAS) workbench and automated weather station (AWS) observational data as training data. The comparison of the downscaled prediction results with the AWS observations for the periods of July/August 2016 and 2017 resulted in a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and higher correlation coefficients (CC) than those obtained for the LDAPS prediction results. The prediction performance was also stable for September, during which precipitation episodes and seasonal fluctuations occurred. The results of this study demonstrate that the proposed technique, which overcomes the limitations of the sliding window technique, is applicable to urban-scale meteorology research and potentially applicable other areas. View Full-Text
Keywords: urban-scale meteorology; analog day; model output statistics (MOS); urban surface characteristics; statistical downscaling urban-scale meteorology; analog day; model output statistics (MOS); urban surface characteristics; statistical downscaling
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Shin, Y.; Yi, C. Statistical Downscaling of Urban-scale Air Temperatures Using an Analog Model Output Statistics Technique. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 427.

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