Accurately forecasting air quality could lead to the development of dynamic, data-driven policy-making and improved early warning detection systems. Deep learning has demonstrated the potential to produce highly accurate forecasting models, but it is...
This study introduces a Transformer-based forecasting tool termed EXPERT (EXchange rate Prediction using Encoder Representation from Transformers) and applies it to exchange rate forecasting. We developed and trained a Transformer-based forecasting m...
In many different applications such as retail, energy, and tourism, forecasts for a set of related time series must satisfy both linear and non-negativity constraints, as negative values are meaningless in practice. Standard regression-based reconcil...
Accurate inflation forecasting is of central importance for monetary authorities, governments, and businesses, as it shapes economic decisions and policy responses. While most studies focus on headline inflation, this paper analyses the Harmonised In...
Accurate forecasts of the U.S. renewable energy consumption mix are essential for planning transmission upgrades, sizing storage, and setting balancing market rules. We introduce a Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA model (BDARMA) tailored to monthly shares of...
Financial sustainability in higher education is increasingly fragile due to policy shifts, rising costs, and funding volatility. Legacy early-warning systems based on static thresholds or rules struggle to adapt to these dynamics and often overlook f...
Accurate precipitation forecasting plays a crucial role in sustainable water resource management, especially in arid regions like Konya, one of Turkey’s driest areas. Reliable forecasts support effective water budgeting, agricultural planning,...
This study evaluates the effect of simple data-level balancing techniques on predicting school dropout across all state public high schools in Espírito Santo, Brazil. We trained Logistic Regression with LASSO (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Naiv...
As the world is shifting toward cleaner energy sources, accurate forecasting of solar radiation is critical for optimizing the performance and integration of solar energy systems. In this study, we explore eight machine learning models, namely, Rando...
Positive percentage time series are present in many empirical applications; they take values in the continuous interval (0,1) and are often modeled with linear dynamic models. Risks of biased predictions (outside the admissible range) and problems of...
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