Fire Weather in a Warming Climate: From Surface Indices to Atmospheric Dynamics

Dear Colleagues,

Wildfire regimes and their impacts on communities and ecosystems are profoundly influenced by fire weather, a term used to generally describe the meteorological conditions that favor the ignition and spread of wildfires. In a warming climate, these fire-conducive conditions are becoming more frequent, persistent, and spatially extensive. However, much of our understanding, both retrospective and prospective, still relies on surface-based assessments that capture only a fraction of the atmospheric processes involved. This Special Issue will advance beyond that surface perspective, exploring how atmospheric dynamics, ranging from the boundary-layer to synoptic and upper-air circulations, shape fire weather extremes. We invite contributions spanning the entire predictive chain: observational analyses, nowcasting and forecasting advances, seasonal prediction and attribution studies, projections of future fire-weather regimes, and the operational integration of fire weather intelligence. Studies addressing compound drivers (e.g., heat and drought) and the development or evaluation of new diagnostic indices are also welcome. The overarching aim of this Special Issue is to advance a physically consistent, multi-scale understanding of fire weather in a warming climate. 

This Special Issue focuses on how a warming climate reshapes the atmospheric conditions that influence wildfire regimes. It invites studies examining the dynamics of fire weather across scales, ranging from boundary-layer processes to synoptic and upper-air circulations, as well as their roles in compound and extreme events. Contributions addressing observation, forecasting, attribution, and projection of fire-conducive conditions are welcome, as well as studies developing or evaluating new diagnostic indices and tools. Our goal is to advance a deeper, physically-grounded understanding of fire weather beyond surface-based approaches.

This Special Issue will welcome manuscripts that link the following themes:

• Observation and analysis of fire-conducive atmospheric conditions;
• Boundary-layer and upper-air dynamics (e.g., low-level jets) influencing wildfire activity;
• Synoptic patterns and large-scale climate modes linked to wildfire extremes;
• Compound fire weather events (e.g., heat, drought, and wind interactions);
• Nowcasting, short-term, and S2S forecasting of fire weather;
• Bias correction and verification of NWP-based fire weather predictions;
• Detection and attribution of changes in fire-conducive atmospheric dynamics;
• Climate projections and future evolution of fire weather;
• Development and evaluation of new or enhanced fire weather indices;
• Integration of fire weather intelligence into operational decision-making.

We look forward to receiving your original research articles and reviews.

Dr. Theodore M. Giannaros
Dr. Georgios Papavasileiou
Guest Editors

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