Energy Forecasting

A topical collection in Forecasting (ISSN 2571-9394). This collection belongs to the section "Power and Energy Forecasting".

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Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Phsysics , University of Antilles, Fouillole Campus, Pointe à Pitre, 97157 Guadeloupe, France
Interests: solar forecasting; renewable energy; solar process; building efficiency; smart grids
Power Systems Engineering Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Interests: machine/deep learning; power system forecasting; renewable energy; image processing

Topical Collection Information

Dear Colleagues,

The open access journal Forecasting welcomes submissions for a Topical Collection on the topic of energy forecasting.

The focuses of this Topical Collection are (but are not limited to):

  • Demand (load) of electricity;
  • Price of electricity;
  • Fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal);
  • Renewable energy;
  • Wind power;
  • Solar power;
  • System forecasting for energy planning;
  • Global energy transformation;
  • Outage;
  • Cyber-attacks;
  • Customer behavior (e.g., occupancy).

Prof. Dr. Ted SOUBDHAN
Dr. Cong Feng
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the collection website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Forecasting is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Published Papers (7 papers)

2024

Jump to: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020

23 pages, 537 KiB  
Article
Forecasting the Occurrence of Electricity Price Spikes: A Statistical-Economic Investigation Study
by Manuel Zamudio López, Hamidreza Zareipour and Mike Quashie
Forecasting 2024, 6(1), 115-137; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6010007 - 1 Feb 2024
Viewed by 1403
Abstract
This research proposes an investigative experiment employing binary classification for short-term electricity price spike forecasting. Numerical definitions for price spikes are derived from economic and statistical thresholds. The predictive task employs two tree-based machine learning classifiers and a deterministic point forecaster; a statistical [...] Read more.
This research proposes an investigative experiment employing binary classification for short-term electricity price spike forecasting. Numerical definitions for price spikes are derived from economic and statistical thresholds. The predictive task employs two tree-based machine learning classifiers and a deterministic point forecaster; a statistical regression model. Hyperparameters for the tree-based classifiers are optimized for statistical performance based on recall, precision, and F1-score. The deterministic forecaster is adapted from the literature on electricity price forecasting for the classification task. Additionally, one tree-based model prioritizes interpretability, generating decision rules that are subsequently utilized to produce price spike forecasts. For all models, we evaluate the final statistical and economic predictive performance. The interpretable model is analyzed for the trade-off between performance and interpretability. Numerical results highlight the significance of complementing statistical performance with economic assessment in electricity price spike forecasting. All experiments utilize data from Alberta’s electricity market. Full article
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2023

Jump to: 2024, 2022, 2021, 2020

23 pages, 603 KiB  
Article
A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes
by Daniel Manfre Jaimes, Manuel Zamudio López, Hamidreza Zareipour and Mike Quashie
Forecasting 2023, 5(3), 499-521; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast5030028 - 19 Jul 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2980
Abstract
This paper proposes a new hybrid model to forecast electricity market prices up to four days ahead. The components of the proposed model are combined in two dimensions. First, on the “vertical” dimension, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks and extreme gradient boosting [...] Read more.
This paper proposes a new hybrid model to forecast electricity market prices up to four days ahead. The components of the proposed model are combined in two dimensions. First, on the “vertical” dimension, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models are stacked up to produce supplementary price forecasts. The final forecasts are then picked depending on how the predictions compare to a price spike threshold. On the “horizontal” dimension, five models are designed to extend the forecasting horizon to four days. This is an important requirement to make forecasts useful for market participants who trade energy and ancillary services multiple days ahead. The horizontally cascaded models take advantage of the availability of specific public data for each forecasting horizon. To enhance the forecasting capability of the model in dealing with price spikes, we deploy a previously unexplored input in the proposed methodology. That is, to use the recent variations in the output power of thermal units as an indicator of unplanned outages or shift in the supply stack. The proposed method is tested using data from Alberta’s electricity market, which is known for its volatility and price spikes. An economic application of the developed forecasting model is also carried out to demonstrate how several market players in the Alberta electricity market can benefit from the proposed multi-day ahead price forecasting model. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed methodology is effective in enhancing forecasting accuracy and price spike detection. Full article
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2022

Jump to: 2024, 2023, 2021, 2020

21 pages, 659 KiB  
Article
Extracting Statistical Properties of Solar and Photovoltaic Power Production for the Scope of Building a Sophisticated Forecasting Framework
by Joseph Ndong and Ted Soubdhan
Forecasting 2023, 5(1), 1-21; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast5010001 - 29 Dec 2022
Viewed by 1583
Abstract
Building a sophisticated forecasting framework for solar and photovoltaic power production in geographic zones with severe meteorological conditions is very challenging. This difficulty is linked to the high variability of the global solar radiation on which the energy production depends. A suitable forecasting [...] Read more.
Building a sophisticated forecasting framework for solar and photovoltaic power production in geographic zones with severe meteorological conditions is very challenging. This difficulty is linked to the high variability of the global solar radiation on which the energy production depends. A suitable forecasting framework might take into account this high variability and could be able to adjust/re-adjust model parameters to reduce sensitivity to estimation errors. The framework should also be able to re-adapt the model parameters whenever the atmospheric conditions change drastically or suddenly—this changes according to microscopic variations. This work presents a new methodology to analyze carefully the meaningful features of global solar radiation variability and extract some relevant information about the probabilistic laws which governs its dynamic evolution. The work establishes a framework able to identify the macroscopic variations from the solar irradiance. The different categories of variability correspond to different levels of meteorological conditions and events and can occur in different time intervals. Thereafter, the tool will be able to extract the abrupt changes, corresponding to microscopic variations, inside each level of variability. The methodology is based on a combination of probability and possibility theory. An unsupervised clustering technique based on a Gaussian mixture model is proposed to identify, first, the categories of variability and, using a hidden Markov model, we study the temporal dependency of the process to identify the dynamic evolution of the solar irradiance as different temporal states. Finally, by means of some transformations of probabilities to possibilities, we identify the abrupt changes in the solar radiation. The study is performed in Guadeloupe, where we have a long record of global solar radiation data recorded at 1 Hertz. Full article
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24 pages, 7253 KiB  
Article
Advances in Time Series Forecasting Development for Power Systems’ Operation with MLOps
by Gonca Gürses-Tran and Antonello Monti
Forecasting 2022, 4(2), 501-524; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4020028 - 26 May 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4352
Abstract
Forecast developers predominantly assess residuals and error statistics when tuning the targeted model’s quality. With that, eventual cost or rewards of the underlying business application are typically not considered in the model development phase. The analysis of the power system wholesale market allows [...] Read more.
Forecast developers predominantly assess residuals and error statistics when tuning the targeted model’s quality. With that, eventual cost or rewards of the underlying business application are typically not considered in the model development phase. The analysis of the power system wholesale market allows us to translate a time series forecast method’s quality to its respective business value. For instance, near real-time capacity procurement takes place in the wholesale market, which is subject to complex interrelations of system operators’ grid activities and balancing parties’ scheduling behavior. Such forecasting tasks can hardly be solved with model-driven approaches because of the large solution space and non-convexity of the optimization problem. Thus, we generate load forecasts by means of a data-driven based forecasting tool ProLoaF, which we benchmark with state-of-the-art baseline models and the auto-machine learning models auto.arima and Facebook Prophet. Full article
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17 pages, 29063 KiB  
Article
Trend Lines and Japanese Candlesticks Applied to the Forecasting of Wind Speed Data Series
by Manfredo Guilizzoni and Paloma Maldonado Eizaguirre
Forecasting 2022, 4(1), 165-181; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010009 - 27 Jan 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3312
Abstract
One of the most critical issues for wind energy exploitation is the high variability of the resource, resulting in very difficult forecasting of the power that wind farms can grant. A vast literature has therefore been devoted to wind speed and wind power [...] Read more.
One of the most critical issues for wind energy exploitation is the high variability of the resource, resulting in very difficult forecasting of the power that wind farms can grant. A vast literature has therefore been devoted to wind speed and wind power quantitative forecasting, using different techniques. The widely used statistical and learning models that are based on a continuation in the future of the series’ past behaviour offer a performance that may be much less satisfactory when the values suddenly change their trend. The application to wind speed data of two techniques usually employed for the technical analysis of financial series–namely support and resistances identification and candlestick charts–is investigated here, with the main aim to detect inversion points in the series. They are applied to wind speed data series for two locations in Spain and Italy. The proposed indicators confirm their usefulness in identifying peculiar behaviours in the system and conditions where the trend may be expected to change. This additional information offered to the forecasting algorithms may also be included in innovative approaches, e.g., based on machine learning. Full article
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2021

Jump to: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2020

13 pages, 3768 KiB  
Article
Building Heat Demand Forecasting by Training a Common Machine Learning Model with Physics-Based Simulator
by Lotta Kannari, Jussi Kiljander, Kalevi Piira, Jouko Piippo and Pekka Koponen
Forecasting 2021, 3(2), 290-302; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020019 - 21 Apr 2021
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3127
Abstract
Accurate short-term forecasts of building energy consumption are necessary for profitable demand response. Short-term forecasting methods can be roughly classified into physics-based modelling and data-based modelling. Both of these approaches have their advantages and disadvantages and it would be therefore ideal to combine [...] Read more.
Accurate short-term forecasts of building energy consumption are necessary for profitable demand response. Short-term forecasting methods can be roughly classified into physics-based modelling and data-based modelling. Both of these approaches have their advantages and disadvantages and it would be therefore ideal to combine them. This paper proposes a novel approach that allows us to combine the best parts of physics-based modelling and machine learning while avoiding many of their drawbacks. A key idea in the approach is to provide a variety of building parameters as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and train the model with data from a large group of simulated buildings. The hypothesis is that this forces the ANN model to learn the underlying simulation model-based physics, and thus enables the ANN model to be used in place of the simulator. The advantages of this type of model is the combination of robustness and accuracy from a high-detail physics-based model with the inference speed, ease of deployment, and support for gradient based optimization provided by the ANN model. To evaluate the approach, an ANN model was developed and trained with simulated data from 900–11,700 buildings, including equal distribution of office buildings, apartment buildings, and detached houses. The performance of the ANN model was evaluated with a test set consisting of 60 buildings (20 buildings for each category). The normalized root mean square errors (NRMSE) were on average 0.050, 0.026, 0.052 for apartment buildings, office buildings, and detached houses, respectively. The results show that the model was able to approximate the simulator with good accuracy also outside of the training data distribution and generalize to new buildings in new geographical locations without any building specific heat demand data. Full article
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2020

Jump to: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

19 pages, 2318 KiB  
Article
A Hybrid Method for the Run-Of-The-River Hydroelectric Power Plant Energy Forecast: HYPE Hydrological Model and Neural Network
by Emanuele Ogliari, Alfredo Nespoli, Marco Mussetta, Silvia Pretto, Andrea Zimbardo, Nicholas Bonfanti and Manuele Aufiero
Forecasting 2020, 2(4), 410-428; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2040022 - 15 Oct 2020
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3569
Abstract
The increasing penetration of non-programmable renewable energy sources (RES) is enforcing the need for accurate power production forecasts. In the category of hydroelectric plants, Run of the River (RoR) plants belong to the class of non-programmable RES. Data-driven models are nowadays the most [...] Read more.
The increasing penetration of non-programmable renewable energy sources (RES) is enforcing the need for accurate power production forecasts. In the category of hydroelectric plants, Run of the River (RoR) plants belong to the class of non-programmable RES. Data-driven models are nowadays the most widely adopted methodologies in hydropower forecast. Among all, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) proved to be highly successful in production forecast. Widely adopted and equally important for hydropower generation forecast is the HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), a semi-distributed hydrological Rainfall–Runoff model. A novel hybrid method, providing HYPE sub-basins flow computation as input to an ANN, is here introduced and tested both with and without the adoption of a decomposition approach. In the former case, two ANNs are trained to forecast the trend and the residual of the production, respectively, to be then summed up to the previously extracted seasonality component and get the power forecast. These results have been compared to those obtained from the adoption of a ANN with rainfalls in input, again with and without decomposition approach. The methods have been assessed by forecasting the Run-of-the-River hydroelectric power plant energy for the year 2017. Besides, the forecasts of 15 power plants output have been fairly compared in order to identify the most accurate forecasting technique. The here proposed hybrid method (HYPE and ANN) has shown to be the most accurate in all the considered study cases. Full article
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