Background/Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the impact of allergic diseases (AD) or obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) risk, as a host factor, on the development of severe
Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia (SMPP) in children by analyzing the clinical data of pediatric patients with
Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia (MPP).
Methods: This retrospective study enrolled children hospitalized with
Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) at Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital from November 2024 to November 2025. Patients were classified into severe (SMPP) and mild (MMPP) groups. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and questionnaire data were collected and compared between groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of SMPP and construct a nomogram. The model was validated for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility using ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, with internal validation by bootstrap resampling.
Results: Among the 150 enrolled children with MPP, 35 (23.3%) were classified as severe (SMPP) and 115 (76.7%) as mild (MMPP). Patients with SMPP exhibited significantly higher frequencies of allergic diseases, prolonged fever and steroid use, elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, LDH, D-dimer, ferritin, ALT), and higher PSQ and RQLQ scores (all
p < 0.05). Disease severity was positively correlated with these clinical, laboratory, and questionnaire-based parameters. Multivariate logistic regression identified allergic diseases, PSQ score, LDH, and ferritin as independent predictors of SMPP. A nomogram incorporating these four factors demonstrated good predictive performance, with an internally validated C-index of 0.827, satisfactory calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow
p = 0.116), and clinical utility within a 0–25% threshold probability range on decision curve analysis.
Conclusions: Children with MPP and comorbid AD or OSA risk are more likely to develop SMPP. Among children aged 6–12 years, RQLQ score is positively correlated with the severity of MPP. AD, PSQ score, LDH, and ferritin are independent risk factors for SMPP. Clinicians should be alert to the development of SMPP when children with MPP present with a history of AD, PSQ score >3.5, LDH >327.50 U/L, or ferritin >120.05 ng/mL. The visual nomogram model constructed by combining these risk factors demonstrates improved predictive performance for SMPP, with high predictive efficacy and accuracy. It has great clinical value and can be used for individualized risk assessment and early intervention. However, our proposed nomogram requires external validation prior to broader implementation.
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