Earth

The Elfeija Dune Field (EDF) is a continental aeolian system in an arid region of southeastern Morocco. Studying this system is critical for understanding the effects of mounting climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study provides a comprehensive characterization of the EDF’s morphology, sedimentology, aeolian dynamics, genesis, and recent evolution. A multi-scale, multidisciplinary approach was adopted, integrating field observations, sedimentological analyses, MERRA-2 reanalysis wind data, cartographic analysis, digital terrain modeling, and morphometric measurements. The results reveal an active 30 km² dune field, elongated WSW-ENE, which is divisible into three morphodynamic zones with a high dune density (80–90 dunes/km²). The wind regime is predominantly from the W to WSW, driving a net ENE sand transport and creating conditions conducive to barchan formation (RDP/DP > 0.78). Sediments are quartz dominated, with significant calcite and various clay minerals (illite, kaolinite, and smectite). Dune sands are primarily fine- to medium-grained and well sorted, in contrast to the more poorly sorted interdune deposits. The landscape is dominated by barchans (mean height H = 2.5 m; mean length L = 50 m) and their coalescent forms, indicating sustained aeolian activity. The potential sand flux was estimated at 1.7 kg/m/s, with a dune collision probability of 32%. The field’s genesis is hypothesized to be controlled by a topographically induced Venturi effect, with an initiation approximately 1000 years ago, potentially linked to the Medieval Climatic Optimum. Significant anthropogenic impacts from expanding irrigated agriculture are observed at the dune field margins. By providing a detailed characterization of the EDF and its sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic forcings, this study establishes a critical baseline for the sustainable management of arid environments. Full article

Existing drainage systems have limited capacity to mitigate future climate change-induced flooding problems effectively. However, some studies have evaluated the effectiveness of integrating Water-Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) with existing drainage systems in mitigating flooding in tropical regions. This study examined the performance of drainage systems and integrated WSUD options under current and future climate scenarios in a sub-catchment of Saltwater Creek, a tropical catchment located in Cairns, Australia. A combination of one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (1D2D) runoff generation and routing models (RORB, storm injector, and MIKE+) is used for simulating runoff and inundation. Several types of WSUDs are tested alongside different climate change scenarios to assess the impact of WSUD in flood mitigation. The results indicate that the existing grey infrastructure is insufficient to address the anticipated increase in precipitation intensity and the resulting flooding caused by climate change in the Engineers Park sub-catchment. Under future climate change scenarios, moderate rainfall events contribute to a 25% increase in peak flow (95% confidence interval = [1.5%, 0.8%]) and total runoff volume (95% confidence interval = [1.05%, 6.5%]), as per the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the 2090 scenario. Integrating WSUD with existing grey infrastructure positively contributed to reducing the flooded area by 18–54% under RCP 8.5 in 2090. However, the efficiency of these combined systems is governed by several factors such as rainfall characteristics, the climate change scenario, rain barrel and porous pavement systems, and the size and physical characteristics of the study area. In the tropics, the flooding problem is estimated to increase under future climatic conditions, and the integration of WSUD with grey infrastructure can play a positive role in reducing floods and their impacts. However, careful interpretation of results is required with an additional assessment clarifying how these systems perform in large catchments and their economic viability for extensive applications. Full article

Accurate soil moisture estimation is critical for precision agriculture and water resource management, yet traditional sampling methods are time-consuming, destructive, and provide limited spatial coverage. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) offers a promising non-destructive alternative, but optimal machine learning approaches for GPR-based soil moisture prediction remain unclear. This study presents a comparative analysis of regression tree and boosted tree algorithms for predicting soil moisture content from Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) histogram features across 21 sites in Eastern Thailand. Soil moisture content was measured at multiple depths (0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, and 3.0 m) using samples collected during Standard Penetration Test procedures. Feature extraction was performed using 16-bin histograms from processed GPR radargrams. A single regression tree achieved a cross-validation RMSE of 5.082 and an R² of 0.761, demonstrating superior training accuracy and interpretability. In contrast, the boosted tree ensemble achieved significantly better generalization performance, with a cross-validation RMSE of 4.7915 and an R² of 0.708, representing a 5.7% improvement in predictive performance. Feature importance analysis revealed that specific histogram bins effectively captured moisture-related variations in GPR signal amplitude distributions. A comparative evaluation demonstrates that while single regression trees offer superior interpretability for research applications, boosted tree ensembles provide enhanced predictive performance that is essential for operational deployment in precision agriculture and hydrological monitoring systems. Full article

Since 2005, landscape ecology has emerged as a structured scientific field in the Democratic Republic of Congo, notably shaped by the contributions of Professor Jan Bogaert. The evolution of research in this field can be divided into three main phases. The first phase (2005–2012) focused on the quantitative analysis of forest fragmentation using Geographic Information Systems and landscape metrics. From 2013 to 2019, research approaches broadened to include the social sciences, marking a shift toward a socio-ecological perspective on landscapes. Since 2020, the field has increasingly adopted holistic frameworks that integrate climatic factors and forward-looking modeling. Key research themes now include ecological flows across landscape mosaics, land-use dynamics, and the anthropogenic transformation of ecosystems. However, several challenges persist, including the lack of long-term temporal datasets, uneven geographic coverage, and limited integration of local knowledge systems. Notable advances have been made through high-resolution remote sensing and participatory methods, although their application is still limited by technical and financial constraints. This manuscript advocates for stronger interdisciplinary collaboration, improved field methodologies, and the development of context-appropriate tools to support sustainable and locally grounded landscape management in the Congolese context. Full article

Land degradation in drylands represents a critical environmental challenge, with persistent bare soil serving as a key indicator of ecosystem vulnerability, including in the Caatinga biome. This study maps and analyzes the spatial and temporal dynamics of persistent bare soils over three decades using multi-temporal remote sensing data. We applied Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA), temporal metrics, and machine learning classifiers within Google Earth Engine to process long-term Landsat datasets and to derive the Normalized Difference Fraction Index Adjusted (NDFIa). The results indicate a widespread increase in bare soil, with over 63% of mapped hexagons showing expansion, particularly in the São Francisco Basin. Peaks in soil exposure coincided with severe drought events, highlighting the link between climate variability and land degradation. Moreover, abandoned agricultural lands and pasturelands emerged as the dominant contributors to persistent bare soils. These findings reinforce the need for targeted policies to mitigate land degradation and to promote sustainable land management in semi-arid ecosystems. This research provides a robust framework for long-term environmental monitoring in drylands by integrating satellite data with advanced analytical techniques. These advancements support more effective land management and conservation strategies in semi-arid ecosystems. Full article

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus provides a critical framework for addressing the interconnected challenges of resource scarcity and sustainability in the face of global population growth and climate variability. This study investigates the application of a WEF nexus approach within the operation and management of a hydroponic greenhouse unit in Central Greece, with the aim of enhancing the unit’s energy autonomy and resource sufficiency. Hydroponics, a soilless cultivation method, optimizes water and land use but relies heavily on energy inputs, necessitating integrated solutions. Through the case study approach, we analyze the unit’s resource dynamics per hectare of water (68 MWh equivalent from desalination), energy (125 MWh or 321 GJ/ha plus 74.5 GJ/ha for fertigation), and food production (~295 tons, which contains 50,250,000 kcal and corresponds to 210 GJ) and propose technical solutions: photovoltaic panels as greenhouse coverings and water rain harvesting regulated with a small reservoir. These innovations could reduce external energy dependency by 90–95% and water use by 25–35%. Energy efficiency is quantified using the energy ratio (ER) and net energy gain (NEG), while resilience is assessed via system reliability under resource variability. Conclusively, this study illustrates how a nexus-based approach can effectively upgrade systems into climate-resilient, resource-efficient models as the abundance or scarcity of one source affects the availability or limitation of the others. Overall, the approach presented in this study could also be used to safeguard the supply chains in megacities. Full article

Quantifying land–atmosphere transport remains crucial for advancing climate prediction and weather forecasting efforts. To improve turbulent flux estimation, the anisotropy of turbulence is taken into consideration. The parameters $x_B$ and $y_B$, which quantify anisotropy degrees across motion scales, form trajectories in the barycentric map. Using the Hilbert–Huang transform, the scale-dependent properties of anisotropy in observational data from multiple sites are investigated. Analysis reveals consistent patterns in the average $y_B-x_B$ trajectories across stratification conditions: as scale increases, $x_B$ increases from 0.4 to 0.9, while $y_B$ initially climbs from 0.5 to 0.7 before declining to 0. Meanwhile, individual case trajectories sometimes deviate from this pattern, indicating contamination by non-turbulent motions that typically cause turbulent flux overestimation. Crucially, identifying the scale at which deviations occur allows effective separation of atmospheric turbulence from non-turbulent motions, which enables the reconstruction of turbulence data. Results demonstrate that corrected fluxes reduce overestimation inherent in traditional eddy covariance systems by approximately 30%, with enhancements for CO₂ and air pollutants reaching 45–83%. Furthermore, the correlation between anisotropy and stratification suggests potential for refining similarity theories into a broader scope, such as carbon cycle assessment and pollution control. Therefore, anisotropy shows promise in quantifying the land–atmosphere transport. Full article

Water-related ecosystem services provide a broad range of benefits, including the mitigation of extreme hydrometeorological events, the provision of water for various uses, the support of tourism, and the provision of cultural services. This study assesses the perceptions and accessibility of these services among communities located near the Alafiarou and Okpara dams in Benin and the Bagré dam in Burkina Faso. The methodology involved designing and implementing a questionnaire in KoboCollect, with trained agents deployed to conduct data collection at each of the three sites. Data analysis indicates that respondents identified biodiversity conservation and the provision of drinking water as the most crucial ecosystem services. Over two-thirds of participants reported observing both positive and negative changes in the services provided by rivers and in socio-economic activities since the construction of the dams. While the majority noted improvements in agriculture, irrigation, water quality, fisheries, and flow rates, other changes included biodiversity loss, a decrease in vegetation cover (notably trees and shrubs), an increase in the population of mosquitoes and other insects, and a decline in fishery resources downstream. Despite these challenges, local communities were strongly willing to participate in initiatives aimed at protecting and restoring river ecosystems and their related services. Full article

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing higher warming rates than elsewhere, which may affect regional vegetation growth. Particularly on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), where the topography is diverse and rich in biodiversity, it is necessary to clarify the drivers of climate and topography on vegetation cover. In this research, we selected the Shaluli Mountains (SLLM) in the ETP as the study area, monitored the spatial and temporal dynamics of the regional vegetation cover using remote sensing methods, and quantified the drivers of vegetation change using Geodetector (GD). The results showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation (PRE) (−2.4054 mm/year) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (−0.1813/year) in the SLLM. Annual maximum temperature (TMX) on the spatial and temporal scales showed an overall increasing trend, and the regional climate tended to become warmer and drier. Since 2000, fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average value of 0.6710, and FVC has spatially shown a pattern of “low in the middle and high in the surroundings”. The areas with non-significant increases (p > 0.05) and significant increases (p < 0.05) in FVC accounted for 46.03% and 5.76% of the SLLM. Altitude (q = 0.3517) and TMX (q = 0.3158) were the main drivers of FVC changes. As altitude and TMX increased, FVC showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing. The results of this study help us to clarify the influence of climate and topography on the vegetation ecosystem of the ETP and provide a scientific basis for regional biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Full article

The phenomenon of arable land non-agriculturalization has become increasingly severe, posing significant threats to the security of arable land resources and ecological sustainability. This study focuses on Dachang Hui Autonomous County in Langfang City, Hebei Province, a region located at the edge of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan cluster. In recent years, the area has undergone accelerated urbanization and industrial transfer, resulting in drastic land use changes and a pronounced contradiction between arable land protection and the expansion of construction land. The study period is 2016–2023, which covers the key period of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei synergistic development strategy and the strengthening of the national arable land protection policy, and is able to comprehensively reflect the dynamic changes of arable land non-agriculturalization under the policy and urbanization process. Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery was utilized to construct a multi-dimensional feature set, and machine learning classifiers were applied to identify arable land non-agriculturalization with optimized performance. GIS-based analysis and the geographic detector model were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost model, optimized using Bayesian parameter tuning, achieved the highest classification accuracy (overall accuracy = 0.94) among the four classifiers, indicating its superior suitability for identifying arable land non-agriculturalization using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed that non-agriculturalization expanded rapidly between 2016 and 2020, followed by a deceleration after 2020, exhibiting a pattern of “rapid growth–slowing down–partial regression”. Further analysis using the geographic detector revealed that socioeconomic factors are the primary drivers of arable land non-agriculturalization in Dachang Hui Autonomous County, while natural factors exerted relatively weaker effects. These findings provide technical support and scientific evidence for dynamic monitoring and policy formulation regarding arable land under urbanization, offering significant theoretical and practical implications. Full article

Floods are among the most devastating hydrometeorological natural disasters worldwide, causing massive infrastructure and economic loss in low-lying, flood-prone developing countries like Bangladesh. Effective disaster mitigation relies on organized and detailed flood damage information to facilitate emergency evacuation, coordinate relief distribution, and formulate an effective disaster management policy. Nevertheless, the nation confronts considerable obstacles due to insufficient historical flood damage data and the underdevelopment of near-real-time (NRT) flood monitoring systems. This study addresses this issue by developing a replicable methodology for flood damage assessment and NRT monitoring systems. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we analyzed flood events from 2019 to 2023, integrating geospatial layers such as roads, cropland, etc. Analysis of flood events over the five-year period revealed substantial impacts, with 21.60% of the total area experiencing inundation. This flooding affected 6.92% of cropland and 4.16% of the population. Furthermore, 18.10% of the road network, spanning over 21,000 km within the study area, was also affected. This system has the potential to enhance emergency response capabilities during flood events and inform more effective disaster mitigation policies. Full article

This study presents a hybrid approach to hydrological forecasting by integrating the physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with Prophet time-series modeling and machine learning–based multi-output regression. Applied to the Cahaba watershed, the objective is to predict key environmental variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and snowmelt) and their influence on hydrological responses (surface runoff, groundwater flow, soil water, sediment yield, and water yield) under present (2010–2022) and future (2030–2042) climate scenarios. Using SWAT outputs for calibration, the integrated SWAT-Prophet-ML model predicted ET and PET with RMSE values between 10 and 20 mm. Performance was lower for high-variability events such as precipitation (RMSE = 30–50 mm). Under current climate conditions, R² values of 0.75 (water yield) and 0.70 (surface runoff) were achieved. Groundwater and sediment yields were underpredicted, particularly during peak years. The model’s limitations relate to its dependence on historical trends and its limited representation of physical processes, which constrain its performance under future climate scenarios. Suggested improvements include scenario-based training and integration of physical constraints. The approach offers a scalable, data-driven method for enhancing monthly water balance prediction and supports applications in watershed planning. Full article

In early May 2025, extreme wildfires swept across Manitoba, Canada, fueled by unseasonably warm temperatures, prolonged drought, and stressed vegetation. We explore how multi-source satellite indicators—such as anomalies in snow cover, precipitation, temperature, vegetation indices, and soil moisture in April–May—jointly signal landscape preconditioning for fire, highlighting the potential of these compound anomalies to inform fire risk awareness in boreal regions. Results indicate that rainfall deficits and diminished snowpack significantly reduced soil moisture, which subsequently decreased vegetative greenness and created a flammable environment prior to ignition. This concept captures how multiple moderate anomalies, when occurring simultaneously, can converge to create high-impact fire conditions that would not be flagged by individual thresholds alone. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring to enhance preparedness in boreal regions under accelerating climate change. Full article

Urban vegetation monitoring is essential for sustainable city planning but is often constrained by the high cost and limited frequency of field-based inventories. This study evaluates the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Sino-Brazilian CBERS-4A satellite imagery, as a spatially explicit and low-cost proxy for urban tree census data. CBERS-4A provides medium-resolution multispectral data freely accessible across South America, yet remains underutilized in urban environmental applications. Focusing on Aracaju, a metropolitan region in northeastern Brazil, we compared NDVI-based classification results with official municipal tree census data from 2022. The analysis revealed a strong spatial correlation, supporting the use of NDVI as a reliable indicator of canopy presence at the urban block scale. In addition to mapping vegetation distribution, the NDVI results identified areas with insufficient canopy coverage, directly informing urban greening priorities. By validating remote sensing data against field inventories, this study demonstrates how CBERS-4A imagery and vegetation indices can support municipal tree management and serve as scalable tools for environmental planning and policy. Full article

Climate change has accelerated the retreat of Andean glaciers, with significant recent losses in the tropical Andes. This study evaluates the extinction of the Carihuairazo volcano glacier (Ecuador), quantifying its area from 1312.5 m² in September 2023 to 101.2 m² in January 2024, its thickness (from 2.5 m to 0.71 m), and its volume (from 2638.85 m³ to 457.18 m³), before its complete deglaciation in February 2024; this rapid melting and its small size classify it as a glacierette. Multivariate analyses (PCA and biclustering) were performed to correlate climatic variables (temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind) with glacier surface and thickness. The PCA explained 70.26% of the total variance, with Axis 1 (28.01%) associated with extreme thermal conditions (temperatures up to 8.18 °C and radiation up to 16.14 kJ m⁻² day⁻¹), which probably drove its disappearance. Likewise, Axis 2 (21.56%) was related to favorable hydric conditions (precipitation between 39 and 94 mm) during the initial phase of glacier monitoring. Biclustering identified three groups of variables: Group 1 (temperature, solar radiation, and vapor pressure) contributed most to deglaciation; Group 2 (precipitation, humidity) apparently benefited initial stability; and Group 3 (wind) played a secondary role. These results, validated through in situ measurements, provide scientific evidence of the disappearance of the Carihuairazo volcano glacier by February 2024. They also corroborate earlier projections that anticipated its extinction by the middle of this decade. The early disappearance of this glacier highlights the vulnerability of small tropical Andean glaciers and underscores the urgent need for water security strategies focused on management, adaptation, and resilience. Full article

Refining the land use structure can boost land utilization efficiency and curtail regional carbon emissions. Nevertheless, prior research has predominantly concentrated on static linear planning analysis. It has failed to account for how future dynamic alterations in driving factors (such as GDP and population) affect simulation outcomes and how the land use spatial configuration impacts the attainment of the carbon-neutrality goal. In this research, 1 km spatial resolution LULC products were employed to meticulously simulate multiple land use scenarios across China at the national level from 2030 to 2060. This was performed by taking into account the dynamic changes in driving factors. Subsequently, an analysis was carried out on the low-carbon land use spatial structure required to reach the carbon-neutrality target. The findings are as follows: (1) When employing the PLUS (Patch—based Land Use Simulation) model to conduct simulations of various land use scenarios in China by taking into account the dynamic alterations in driving factors, a high degree of precision was attained across diverse scenarios. The sustainable development scenario demonstrated the best performance, with kappa, OA, and FoM values of 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. This implies that the simulation approach based on dynamic factors is highly suitable for national-scale applications. (2) The simulation accuracy of the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS (Systems for Geographical Modeling and Optimization, Simulation of Future Land Utilization) models was validated for six scenarios by extrapolating the trends of influencing factors. Moreover, a set of scenarios was added to each model as a control group without extrapolation. The present research demonstrated that projecting the trends of factors having an impact notably improved the simulation precision of both the PLUS and GeoSOS-FLUS models. When contrasted with the GeoSOS-FLUS model, the PLUS model attained superior simulation accuracy across all six scenarios. The highest precision indicators were observed in the sustainable development scenario, with kappa, OA, and FoM values reaching 0.9101, 93.15%, and 0.3895, respectively. The precise simulation method of the PLUS model, which considers the dynamic changes in influencing factors, is highly applicable at the national scale. (3) Under the sustainable development scenario, it is anticipated that China’s land use carbon emissions will reach their peak in 2030 and achieve the carbon-neutrality target by 2060. Net carbon emissions are expected to decline by 14.36% compared to the 2020 levels. From the perspective of dynamic changes in influencing factors, the PLUS model was used to accurately simulate China’s future land use. Based on these simulations, multi-scenario predictions of future carbon emissions were made, and the results uncover the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of China’s carbon emissions. This study aims to offer a solid scientific basis for policy-making related to China’s low-carbon economy and high-quality development. It also intends to present Chinese solutions and key paths for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Full article

Landslides are among the most hazardous natural phenomena affecting Greater Abidjan, causing significant economic and social damage. Strategic planning supported by geographic information systems (GIS) can help mitigate potential losses and enhance disaster resilience. This study evaluates landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and frequency ratio models. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising 54 mapped landslide scarps collected from June 2015 to July 2023, along with 16 thematic predictor variables, including altitude, slope, aspect, profile curvature, plan curvature, drainage area, distance to the drainage network, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and an urban-related layer. A high-resolution (5-m) digital elevation model (DEM), derived from multiple data sources, supports the spatial analysis. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into two subsets: 80% for model calibration and 20% for validation. After optimization and statistical testing, the selected thematic layers were integrated to produce a susceptibility map. The results indicate that 6.3% (0.7 km²) of the study area is classified as very highly susceptible. The proportion of the sample (61.2%) in this class had a frequency ratio estimated to be 20.2. Among the predictive indicators, altitude, slope, SE, S, NW, and NDVI were found to have a positive impact on landslide occurrence. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), demonstrating strong predictive capability. These findings can support informed land-use planning and risk reduction strategies in urban areas. Furthermore, the prediction model should be communicated to and understood by local authorities to facilitate disaster management. The cost function was adopted as a novel approach to delineate hazardous zones. Considering the landslide inventory period, the increasing hazard due to climate change, and the intensification of human activities, a reasoned choice of sample size was made. This informed decision enabled the production of an updated prediction map. Optimal thresholds were then derived to classify areas into high- and low-susceptibility categories. The prediction map will be useful to planners in helping them make decisions and implement protective measures. Full article

Fresh water is vital for human activities; however, an increase in the contamination of water bodies has been observed, so it is necessary to monitor the degree of contamination and take measures to preserve it. In Altamira, Tamaulipas, the Guayalejo-Tamesí River basin has three estuaries and seven lagoons, including Laguna El Conejo, of which the National Water Commission only monitors one. The objective of this research is to determine water quality on the basis of the parameters COD, BOD₅, T, pH, and sediment characteristics. The open reflux method was used according to NMX-AA-030-SCFI-2012 for COD, BOD Track II, HACH equipment for BOD₅, and the granulometric characterization recommended by the Unified Soil Classification System ASTM D-2487-17. The water was found to be uniformly contaminated throughout its length in the range of 117.3–200 mg/L COD, and BOD₅ ranged from 15.8–112.75 mg/L throughout the study period, with sediments dominated by poorly graded soil and fine clay. Comprehensive management is needed because the BOD₅/COD ratio varies between 0.11and 0.56, indicating that it contains recalcitrant organic matter, which is difficult to biodegrade. Full article

Amid global environmental changes, urbanisation erodes nature connectedness, an important driver of pro-environmental behaviours and human well-being, exacerbating human-made risks like biodiversity loss and climate change. This study introduces a novel hybrid agent-based model (ABM), calibrated with historical urbanisation data, to explore how urbanisation, opportunity and orientation to engage with nature, and intergenerational transmission have shaped nature connectedness over time. The model simulates historical trends (1800–2020) against target data, with projections extending to 2125. The ABM revealed a significant nature connectedness decline with excellent fit to the target data, derived from nature word use in cultural products. Although a lifetime ‘extinction of experience’ mechanism refined the fit, intergenerational transmission emerged as the dominant driver—supporting a socio-ecological tipping point in human–nature disconnection. Even with transformative interventions like dramatic urban greening and enhanced nature engagement, projections suggest a persistent disconnection from nature through to 2050, highlighting locked-in risks to environmental stewardship. After 2050, the most transformative interventions trigger a self-sustaining recovery, highlighting the need for sustained, systemic policies that embed nature connectedness into urban planning and education. Full article