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Earth

Earth is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on earth science, published quarterly online by MDPI.

Quartile Ranking JCR - Q2 (Geosciences, Multidisciplinary | Environmental Sciences)

All Articles (385)

Agricultural crop yield prediction is vital for ensuring global food security and optimizing resource management amid the increasing challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather variability. This study investigates the use of discrete-time, finite-state, time-homogeneous Markov chains to model crop failure and yield fluctuation probability. Maize yields in Hungary during 1921–1960 and 1980–2023 were analyzed. Yield distribution was assumed to depend only on the yield of the previous year. The Olympic average was computed for 5-year periods, excluding the highest and lowest values. Annual yield was divided by the value of the moving average and expressed as a percentage. According to our estimates, a higher degree of yield fluctuation is associated with an increased frequency of years with yields close to the long-term average. Considering the long-time trend during 1925–1960, the probability of having average maize yield, yield failure, and high yield would be 73.5%, 11.8%, and 14.7%, respectively. For the period of 1985–2023, the probability of failure was calculated to be at least 15% higher, while that of the high yield was found to be lower than for the first period. Taking the second period’s trend into account, the probabilities of average harvest, crop failure, and high harvest would be 66%, 21%, and 13%, respectively. Our findings confirm that the probability of yield variability can be modeled using the discrete-time Markov chain method, providing a new mathematical approach for crop yield prediction.

6 November 2025

Maize yield in Hungary in the period of 1921–2023 (source: Hungarian Statistical Office [18]). In the period from 1960 to 1980 (between the dashed lines), yield increase followed a nearly linear trend.

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key indicator reflecting the ecological environmental disturbance caused by open-pit coal mining activities and determining the ecological status in alpine permafrost regions. Thus, it is crucial to study the spatiotemporal variations and influencing mechanisms of LST throughout all stages of small-scale mining–large-scale land surface damage–ecological restoration. Landsat imagery over nine periods was extracted from the growing seasons between 1990 and 2024. This study retrieved LST while simultaneously calculating albedo, soil moisture, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for each time phase. By integrating land use/cover (LUCC) data, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of LST in the mining area throughout all stages were revealed. Based on the Geodetector method, an identification approach for factors influencing LST spatial differentiation was established. This approach was applicable to the entire process characterized by significant land type transitions. The results indicate that the spatiotemporal variations in LST were significantly correlated with land surface damage and restoration caused by human activities in the mining area. With the implementation of ecological restoration, high and ultra-high temperatures decreased by about 25.98% compared to the period when the surface damage was the most severe. The main influencing factors of LST differentiation were identified for different land use types, i.e., natural and restored meadows (soil wetness, albedo, and NDVI), mine pits (albedo, aspect, and elevation), and mining waste dumps (aspect and albedo before restoration; aspect and NDVI after restoration). This study can provide a reference for monitoring the ecological environment changes and ecological restoration of global coalfields with the same climatic characteristics.

6 November 2025

(a) Location and scope of the research area. (b) The elevation and hydrology of the coal mining area and its surrounding areas. (c) Schematic diagram of frozen soil layer construction in coal mining area.

Natural resource-endowed landscapes in many parts of the Global South play a crucial role in the livelihoods of communities. Such resource-endowed areas attract current and prospective resource-use actors, making them veritable hollow frontiers. Hollow frontiers, as crucial resource attractions in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), have attracted significant interest in scientific and policy circles. While studies have explored the patterns of migration and population change around hollow frontiers, there is limited evidence on the resource-use dynamics and trajectories in hollow frontiers. This study uses the case of the Mungo Corridor of Cameroon, a hollow frontier par excellence, to (1) determine the variations in forestland resource-use practices, and (2) analyze changes in forestland resource space in the corridor. Data for this study was collected through key informant interviews (n = 37), focus group discussions (n = 15), household surveys using a structured questionnaire (n = 250), and Landsat images. Geospatial analysis, descriptive statistics, and the chi-square statistical technique were employed in the analysis. The study revealed that forestland resource-use practices (NTFPs harvesting) witnessed a significant decline due to the intensification of extraction rates. Furthermore, forestland witnessed a significant decline in Njombe-Penja and Loum (35.216% and 48.176%, respectively) between 1984 and 2024. The results provide novel insights on the pattern of resource use around hollow frontiers and further informs land management policy in the context of the regulation of land-based resources in the hollow frontiers of Cameroon and similar sub-Saharan African contexts. Future studies should explore forestland resource regeneration strategies in the Mungo Corridor.

3 November 2025

Forest resource dynamics in hollow frontiers.

Wastewater contamination of freshwater ecosystems is a major driver of the spread of antibiotic resistance (AR). This preliminary study investigated the impact of wastewater pollution on the AR profiles of bacterial communities in the Oued–Zénati waterway, Algeria, across a pollution gradient. From September 2017 to May 2018, water samples were collected from an upstream reference site (P1), a site downstream of urban and hospital discharges (P2), and a downstream recovery site (P3). Physicochemical and microbiological analyses revealed a critical pollution hotspot at P2, with fecal coliform concentrations reaching 9.5 × 105 MPN/100 mL, nearly 40 times higher than at P1. From a representative subset of 33 bacterial isolates characterized in this study, susceptibility testing showed a high prevalence of resistance, with observed trends matching the pollution gradient. Specifically, 100% of isolates from the polluted sites (P2 and P3) were resistant to ampicillin, and 60% of isolates from the hotspot (P2) were resistant to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Conversely, all isolates remained susceptible to gentamicin. These initial findings suggest that direct wastewater discharge is creating a significant reservoir for AR, highlighting potential risks to public and environmental health and underscoring the urgent need for improved wastewater management infrastructure.

2 November 2025

Map of the study area showing the location of the three sampling sites (P1, P2, and P3) along the Oued–Zénati waterway.

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Earth - ISSN 2673-4834Creative Common CC BY license