Economies

20 pages, 1051 KB

Open AccessReview

Relative and Absolute Decoupling: Conceptual Confusions, Policy Consequences, and a Multi-Level Synthesis

by Bashkim Cerkini, Roberta Bajrami and Kaltrina Bajraktari

Economies 2025, 13(11), 336; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110336 - 20 Nov 2025

Viewed by 409

Relative and absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressures is one of the most contested topics in ecological economics. This article situates the decoupling debate within a philosophical and normative framework, building on recent critical contributions and on empirical evidence that challenges [...] Read more.

Relative and absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressures is one of the most contested topics in ecological economics. This article situates the decoupling debate within a philosophical and normative framework, building on recent critical contributions and on empirical evidence that challenges the green growth narrative. Through a critical analysis of key methodologies, including the TDI, LMDI decomposition, the CAPRO ratio, and MRIO models, it shows that the choice of indicators is not neutral but carries implicit assumptions about progress, ecological limits, and climate justice. The review of empirical results indicates that robust, sustained absolute decoupling is rare and often undermined by rebound effects, outsourcing, or temporary crisis-driven contractions, whereas relative decoupling dominates. On this basis, the article advances a multi-level decoupling synthesis that integrates empirical indicators with normative thresholds such as planetary boundaries, sufficient absolute decoupling, and climate justice, thereby reframing sustainability assessment from the narrow question of technical feasibility to the broader issue of ecological and ethical legitimacy. Full article

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29 pages, 1820 KB

Open AccessArticle

Administrative Digital Accessibility as an Opportunity for Rural Development—Case Study: The Peri-Urban Area of Bucharest

by Andrei Ducman, Camelia Teodorescu and Ana-Irina Lequeux-Dincă

Economies 2025, 13(11), 335; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110335 - 18 Nov 2025

Viewed by 370

Abstract

Administrative digital accessibility drives rural development, particularly in peri-urban areas where traditional governance meets the growing demands for digital services. The study examines the role of digital tools in local administrations in supporting citizen engagement and responsiveness in communes near Bucharest. A composite [...] Read more.

Administrative digital accessibility drives rural development, particularly in peri-urban areas where traditional governance meets the growing demands for digital services. The study examines the role of digital tools in local administrations in supporting citizen engagement and responsiveness in communes near Bucharest. A composite digital maturity index was created, utilizing indicators such as website usability, social media presence, integration with national platforms, and administrative transparency. Building on this framework, results reveal pronounced disparities. Dobroești (79 points) and Jilava (69 points) emerge as digital leaders, demonstrating advanced online services and structured communication. In contrast, communes such as Chiajna, Clinceni, and Tunari show limited digital adoption, with four out of eleven communes scoring below 50. This highlights significant inconsistencies in digital implementation. These disparities are further reflected in the findings, which indicate the absence of a coherent regional digital strategy. Each commune operates independently, without a standardized approach to digitalization, resulting in fragmented infrastructures and uneven citizen engagement. High performance in one area does not guarantee broader digital inclusion. These insights underscore the need for targeted policies that respect local priorities while promoting harmonized digital capacities across peri-urban communes, ensuring equitable access to digital public services and fostering inclusive administrative modernization. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development)

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16 pages, 2198 KB

Open AccessArticle

Dynamic Interactions Between Oil Price Volatility and Fiscal Policy: Empirical Evidence from GCC Countries

by Tarek Sadraoui and Hela Mili

Economies 2025, 13(11), 334; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110334 - 18 Nov 2025

Viewed by 896

Abstract

This article examines how the volatile oil price affected Saudi Arabia’s and the other GCC countries’ fiscal policy dynamics from 2000 and 2024. The region’s fiscal systems are vulnerable to external shocks due to their substantial reliance on petroleum profits, even with ongoing [...] Read more.

This article examines how the volatile oil price affected Saudi Arabia’s and the other GCC countries’ fiscal policy dynamics from 2000 and 2024. The region’s fiscal systems are vulnerable to external shocks due to their substantial reliance on petroleum profits, even with ongoing efforts to diversify. The dynamic links between government spending, budget balances and oil prices are examined using a panel vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. We also estimate different fiscal reaction functions for Saudi Arabia and several of its neighbors with somewhat more diversified income systems, like Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. This study’s primary contribution is its direct comparative analysis of GCC fiscal responses using a long panel (2000–2024) that encompasses major oil price cycles, and the application of a dynamic PVAR framework to quantify the persistence and heterogeneity of these effects across countries. The data shows that different countries have different fiscal responses. For example, Saudi Arabia reacts to oil shocks more slowly than other nations with more diverse revenue sources, who have better consolidation mechanisms. These results highlight the necessity of strong fiscal frameworks that build resilience to fluctuations in commodity prices and offer insightful guidance to policymakers seeking sustainable fiscal management in countries that rely heavily on natural resources. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Advanced Techniques and Modeling in Business and Economics)

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20 pages, 1250 KB

Open AccessArticle

How Did Geopolitical Risks and COVID-19 Influence the Dynamics of Herding Behavior in MENA Stock Markets?

by Imed Medhioub

Economies 2025, 13(11), 333; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110333 - 15 Nov 2025

Viewed by 328

Abstract

This study examines herding behavior in six MENA stock markets, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and downward/upward market conditions during COVID-19/non-COVID-19 periods. Empirical results reveal significant differences among MENA countries regarding herding behavior and the impact of geopolitical events. [...] Read more.

This study examines herding behavior in six MENA stock markets, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and downward/upward market conditions during COVID-19/non-COVID-19 periods. Empirical results reveal significant differences among MENA countries regarding herding behavior and the impact of geopolitical events. We conclude that herding was more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during downward markets. Additionally, we found that geopolitical risks further amplified herding during dramatic market periods, particularly at lower quantiles. An exception was the Saudi stock market, which exhibited resilience to geopolitical risks, likely due to strong government support and robust policies. In contrast, Lebanon’s stock market has been exposed to an increased herding due to political instability. These findings suggest that regulators should enhance mechanisms to monitor market activities and introduce efficient policies to mitigate systematic risk and strengthen financial stability during downturns. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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23 pages, 379 KB

Open AccessArticle

A Multi-Criteria Assessment of Green Tourism Potential in Rural Regions: The Role of Green Skills and Institutional Readiness

by Vladimir Ristanović, Berislav Andrlić and Erdogan Ekiz

Economies 2025, 13(11), 332; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110332 - 14 Nov 2025

Viewed by 403

Abstract

This paper assesses the green tourism readiness of six EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe—Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania—using a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model. As tourism sectors face increasing pressure to align with the European Green Deal and [...] Read more.

This paper assesses the green tourism readiness of six EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe—Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania—using a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model. As tourism sectors face increasing pressure to align with the European Green Deal and sustainability goals, integrating green skills, environmental protection, and institutional governance becomes essential. The study applies a three-step framework that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Best-Worst Method (BWM), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to evaluate national performance across four criteria: natural capital, rural infrastructure, governance readiness, and green skills in vocational education and training (VET). Results show that environmental sustainability and governance are the dominant enablers of green tourism transformation, with Slovenia and Croatia leading in overall readiness. Although green skills have a lower relative weight, their integration significantly strengthens performance in more advanced systems. The hybrid model demonstrated methodological robustness through sensitivity and consistency checks. This research contributes to both methodological innovation and evidence-based policymaking by offering a replicable tool for evaluating sustainable tourism development in transition economies. It provides actionable insights for aligning education, tourism, and environmental policy within the broader EU green transition framework. Full article

33 pages, 2610 KB

Open AccessArticle

Agricultural Technology Extension and Farmers’ Income: Evidence from China

by Fan Li, Xinyi Pan, Yingxi Liu and Jian Wu

Economies 2025, 13(11), 331; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110331 - 14 Nov 2025

Viewed by 628

Abstract

This study evaluates the income effects of China’s Major Agricultural Technology Collaborative Extension Program (MATCEP) using CFPS panel data and a Difference-in-Differences model. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how large-scale collaborative agricultural extension affects farmers’ income and its underlying mechanisms. [...] Read more.

This study evaluates the income effects of China’s Major Agricultural Technology Collaborative Extension Program (MATCEP) using CFPS panel data and a Difference-in-Differences model. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how large-scale collaborative agricultural extension affects farmers’ income and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that the program significantly raises farm household income through two mechanisms: production expansion, achieved via lower transaction costs and land consolidation, and quality upgrading, driven by improved technical efficiency and standardization. The effects are stronger among entrepreneurial and financially constrained households. These findings demonstrate that coordinated extension systems linking research, education, and production effectively translate technological progress into rural income growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development)

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30 pages, 507 KB

Open AccessArticle

Childhood Migration Experiences and Entrepreneurial Choices: Evidence from Chinese Internal Migrants

by Wei Bu, Shanshan Liu and Chenxi Li

Economies 2025, 13(11), 330; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110330 - 14 Nov 2025

Viewed by 344

Abstract

Existing research has shown that individuals’ early-life experiences exert a sustained impact on their social life in adulthood. However, there remains a lack of understanding regarding how childhood migration experiences influence entrepreneurial behaviors. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), [...] Read more.

Existing research has shown that individuals’ early-life experiences exert a sustained impact on their social life in adulthood. However, there remains a lack of understanding regarding how childhood migration experiences influence entrepreneurial behaviors. Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), this paper examines the effects of childhood migration experiences on migrants’ entrepreneurial propensity. The findings indicate that childhood migration experiences increase the likelihood of migrants engaging in self-employment or entrepreneurship in China, and this result holds consistent across several robustness checks. The research further reveals that social capital and human capital mediate the relationship between childhood migration experiences and entrepreneurial choices. Additionally, for migrants aged over 35, and those who migrated alone during their first-time migration, the positive effects of childhood migration experiences are more significant. Also, among the three age cohorts of childhood migration, the entrepreneurial effects of migration at ages 7–12 and 13–18 are significantly stronger than those of migration before age 6. This research highlights the long-term impact of childhood migration experiences on shaping individuals’ entrepreneurial choices, which provides theoretical and practical evidence for government policies that promote entrepreneurship. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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21 pages, 2195 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Economic and Public Finance Tools in Achieving Energy Transition in Europe

by Alina Cristina Nuta, Rena Huseynova, Florentin Emil Tanasa and Florian Marcel Nuta

Economies 2025, 13(11), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110329 - 13 Nov 2025

Viewed by 433

Abstract

Europe’s decarbonization calls for an increase in the resources used to ensure a fairer transition. The objective of this study is to evaluate the role of public finance in the decarbonization process, considering the context of various uncertainties. Data from 1995 to 2023 [...] Read more.

Europe’s decarbonization calls for an increase in the resources used to ensure a fairer transition. The objective of this study is to evaluate the role of public finance in the decarbonization process, considering the context of various uncertainties. Data from 1995 to 2023 for selected European countries were analyzed in this sense. We used the cross-sectional dependence–consistent Driscoll–Kraay estimator as the main econometric approach and Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) as a robustness test. The results revealed a positive impact of public debt, world uncertainty, and gross domestic product on renewable energy usage in European countries. Additionally, general fiscal pressure is shown to have a negative impact on the renewable energy used during the analyzed period. The results showcase the importance of public finance tools adjustments in supporting the race to zero breakthroughs and dawdling climate change. Several policy recommendations were made in this regard. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Energy Policy, Regulation and Sustainable Development—2nd Edition)

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24 pages, 311 KB

Open AccessArticle

Effectiveness of the Inflation-Targeting Framework in the Egyptian Economy

by Omar Mahmoud Al-Amary

Economies 2025, 13(11), 328; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110328 - 13 Nov 2025

Viewed by 796

Abstract

The primary goal of the present study was to assess the efficacy of the inflation-targeting framework (ITF) within the Egyptian economy. This was achieved by scrutinizing the monetary policy framework (MPF) from 2005 to 2022 and measuring its effectiveness in realizing monetary policy [...] Read more.

The primary goal of the present study was to assess the efficacy of the inflation-targeting framework (ITF) within the Egyptian economy. This was achieved by scrutinizing the monetary policy framework (MPF) from 2005 to 2022 and measuring its effectiveness in realizing monetary policy objectives (MPs). The approach involved constructing a macroeconomic model that captures the interconnections among macroeconomic variables (real and monetary), whether they serve as targets or instruments of MP or are otherwise closely associated variables. The model also helps to estimate the sensitivity coefficients of macroeconomic variables (real and monetary) related to changes in interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, and real output and then to identify how the impact transfers between monetary variables and related macroeconomic variables, as well as the amount of that impact. Using a quarterly series constructed from the original annual data via a Bayesian temporal disaggregation procedure (2005Q1–2022Q4), our findings conclude that there is a mechanism in the Egyptian economy to transfer the impact to and from the basic macroeconomic variables (household and investment expenditure, net exports, money demand, interest rate, and real output). This reflects the responses of the household and business sectors in their decisions on changes in both the real interest rate and the level of output. However, the extent to which the impact of monetary policy instruments was transmitted to the main monetary target value (money supply) and subsequently to real output (or economic growth) was significantly low, indicating the weak effectiveness of the ITF in the Egyptian economy. Full article

25 pages, 701 KB

Open AccessArticle

Environmental Degradation, Renewable Energy, Technological Innovation, and Foreign Direct Investment as Determinants of Tourism Development in Tunisia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag–Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Analysis

by Oussama Zaghdoud

Economies 2025, 13(11), 327; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110327 - 13 Nov 2025

Viewed by 395

Abstract

This study examines how tourism development in Tunisia responds to environmental degradation, renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment. Using annual data for 1990–2023, we apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach to identify long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics and [...] Read more.

This study examines how tourism development in Tunisia responds to environmental degradation, renewable energy consumption, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment. Using annual data for 1990–2023, we apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach to identify long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics and validate the results with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The bounds tests confirm stable long-run relationships among tourism development and its structural determinants—environmental degradation, renewable energy, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment. The empirical results show that environmental degradation depresses tourism development in the long run, whereas renewable energy and technological innovation promote it. Foreign direct investment provides the strongest positive contribution. Complimentary Granger causality tests confirm unidirectional causality from environmental degradation, renewable energy, and technological innovation to tourism development, and bidirectional causality between tourism and foreign direct investment, validating the robustness and direction of influences among variables. Short-run effects appear weaker and occasionally mixed; however, the negative and highly significant error-correction term indicates convergence toward equilibrium. The FMOLS estimates closely match the ARDL results, providing further confidence in the results. Accordingly, policymakers should bolster environmental management, increase renewable energy as part of tourism infrastructure, advance digital and eco-innovation, and attract FDI in cleaner technologies and higher standards of services. This study fills conceptual and regional evidence gaps by integrating environmental, technological, and financial dimensions within a unified framework. It offers practical guidance consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals; specifically, Goals 7 (clean energy), 8 (sustainable growth and jobs), and 13 (climate action). Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Globalisation, Environmental Sustainability, and Green Growth)

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16 pages, 302 KB

Open AccessArticle

Ten Lessons from the EU Accession of Ex-Communist Countries

by Călin Vâlsan, Amos M. Rahat and Elena Druică

Economies 2025, 13(11), 326; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110326 - 12 Nov 2025

Viewed by 488

Abstract

We investigate the broad economic impact of accession in the case of 13 countries who joined the European Union starting with 2004, by comparing them with both EU and non-EU countries. Using 25 years of data, we document significant post-accession improvements in productivity [...] Read more.

We investigate the broad economic impact of accession in the case of 13 countries who joined the European Union starting with 2004, by comparing them with both EU and non-EU countries. Using 25 years of data, we document significant post-accession improvements in productivity and/or GDP per capita. Overall, these countries outperformed in terms of growth and productivity the European countries that never joined the EU. The newly admitted countries also out-borrowed non-EU countries in order to finance their transition and their subsequent economic growth. We also document a significant short-term, inverse relationship between the quality of governance and total factor productivity, on the one hand, and the ratio of debt-to-GDP on the other hand. This suggests that increases in the level of indebtedness could be driven by poor political governance and weak productivity. Borrowing appears to represent a compensatory, stop-gap measure rather than the result of sound economic strategy. Full article

18 pages, 526 KB

Open AccessArticle

Policy Alignment Between ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies and China’s Monetary Reforms—A Cross-Region Study

by Lin Guo and Zhanpeng Wang

Economies 2025, 13(11), 325; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110325 - 12 Nov 2025

Viewed by 1253

Abstract

The triple shocks of the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic have exerted significant impact on the financial markets in the Eurozone. Since the 2008 recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented an array of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs). These [...] Read more.

The triple shocks of the financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic have exerted significant impact on the financial markets in the Eurozone. Since the 2008 recession, the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented an array of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs). These policies aim to address issues such as financing constraints and low inflation rates that the traditional monetary policy framework could not handle. The data indicated that when the ECB implemented its quantitative easing (QE) programs (e.g., the pandemic emergency purchase program), inflation in the Eurozone bounced back. It went up from −0.3% in August 2020 to 5% by December 2021. These measures prevented the pandemic from pushing the economy into a long-lasting deflation pressure. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s monetary policy decisions play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability and fostering sustainable growth. This study examines ECB’S major unconventional monetary policy measures, evaluates their effects, and explores how these align with China’s monetary policy formulation and reforms. This research can provide useful insights for shaping monetary policy in the Eurozone and emerging economies such as China, especially during times of economic uncertainty. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue International Financial Markets and Monetary Policy 2.0)

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27 pages, 382 KB

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Profitability and Capital Intensity: Moderating Role of Debt Financing

by Abdulazeez Y. H. Saif-Alyousfi, Abdullah Alsadan and Hassan Alalmaee

Economies 2025, 13(11), 324; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110324 - 12 Nov 2025

Viewed by 2033

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between capital intensity, debt financing, and profitability in non-financial firms in Oman over the period 2012–2022. Using a robust panel dataset of 76 firms, the research explores how capital structure dynamics influence firm performance across different firm sizes [...] Read more.

This study investigates the relationship between capital intensity, debt financing, and profitability in non-financial firms in Oman over the period 2012–2022. Using a robust panel dataset of 76 firms, the research explores how capital structure dynamics influence firm performance across different firm sizes and industries. The findings reveal that capital intensity significantly enhances profitability, and debt financing further strengthens this effect, with variations observed across firm size and sector. The analysis also identifies a non-linear (concave) relationship between capital intensity and profitability, indicating that while moderate capital investment improves firm performance, excessive capital accumulation may lead to diminishing returns. Larger firms, with better access to financial resources, exhibit a stronger positive relationship between debt financing and profitability, while smaller firms face more challenges due to limited access to capital. Industry-specific results indicate that capital-intensive sectors, such as Energy and Industrials, demonstrate a more pronounced effect of capital intensity on profitability compared to less capital-intensive sectors. The study also incorporates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, showing its significant influence on firm performance, particularly in sectors with high debt exposure. By integrating non-linear effects, firm size, industry heterogeneity, and pandemic shocks, this study provides novel insights into capital structure management in emerging economies, offering implications for both corporate decision-makers and policymakers aiming to enhance financial access and optimize debt strategies across sectors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

25 pages, 4423 KB

Open AccessArticle

Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Transport Emissions: An Investigation of Elasticity-Based Decoupling Metrics in the Gulf

by Sadiq H. Melhim and Rima J. Isaifan

Economies 2025, 13(11), 323; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110323 - 11 Nov 2025

Viewed by 408

Abstract

Transport is among the fastest-growing contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, where rapid urbanization, population growth, and high mobility demand continue to shape energy use. This study aims to quantify the extent to which [...] Read more.

Transport is among the fastest-growing contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, where rapid urbanization, population growth, and high mobility demand continue to shape energy use. This study aims to quantify the extent to which economic growth and urbanization drive transport-related CO₂ emissions across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates between 2012 and 2022. Using sector-specific data from the International Energy Agency and World Bank, we apply panel and country-level log–log regression models to estimate long-run and short-run elasticities of transport CO₂ emissions with respect to GDP and urban population. The analysis also includes robustness checks excluding the COVID-19 pandemic year to isolate structural effects from temporary shocks. Results show that transport emissions remain strongly correlated with GDP in most countries, indicating emissions-intensive growth, while the influence of urbanization varies: positive in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, where expansion is car-dependent, and negative in Oman and Qatar, where compact urban forms and transit investments mitigate emissions. The findings highlight the importance of differentiated policy responses—fuel-pricing reform, vehicle efficiency standards, electrification, and transit-oriented planning—to advance low-carbon mobility. By integrating elasticity-based diagnostics with decoupling analysis, this study provides the first harmonized empirical framework for the GCC to assess progress toward transport-sector decarbonization. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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20 pages, 1697 KB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial Interactions Between Growth and Rural Unemployment, Considering Climate Variability in Brazil and Mexico (2012–2024)

by Diego Andrés Cardoso López, Jesús Antonio López Cabrera, Tatiana Isabel Caly Amador and Álvaro Luis Mercado Suárez

Economies 2025, 13(11), 322; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110322 - 11 Nov 2025

Viewed by 352

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and rural unemployment in Brazil and Mexico, incorporating the effects of climate variability and spatial interactions. Okun’s Law serves as the theoretical framework, and a dynamic spatial panel model is applied to estimate short-term causal [...] Read more.

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and rural unemployment in Brazil and Mexico, incorporating the effects of climate variability and spatial interactions. Okun’s Law serves as the theoretical framework, and a dynamic spatial panel model is applied to estimate short-term causal effects. The analysis uses data from Brazil’s IBGE, Mexico’s INEGI, and the U.S. NCEI. The results indicate that Okun’s Law is only partially validated in Mexico, where lagged income growth reduces rural unemployment, while in Brazil, the relationship is not statistically confirmed. Climate variables also play a critical role: higher local temperatures reduce unemployment in Brazil and, with a lag, in Mexico, although temperature increases in neighboring regions raise unemployment in Mexico. Rainfall has a consistent positive effect on rural unemployment in both countries, highlighting the disruptive impact of extreme weather events. From a spatial perspective, no contemporaneous effects are observed. However, lagged spatial effects are negative in Brazil and positive in Mexico, suggesting different adjustment dynamics across territories. Overall, the findings reveal that climate variability influences the growth-unemployment nexus differently depending on the national context and temporal dimension. These results underscore the importance of designing public policies that integrate territorial coordination, address the differentiated impacts of climate variability, and strengthen the adaptive capacity and resilience of rural areas in Latin America. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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16 pages, 270 KB

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Egypt’s External Debt Crisis: The Role of Debt Management and Maturity Structure

by Mahmoud Magdy Barbary and Rania Osama Mohamed

Economies 2025, 13(11), 321; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110321 - 8 Nov 2025

Viewed by 2069

Abstract

Egypt has experienced a sharp rise in external debt over the past decade, increasing from USD 55.8 billion in 2015 to over USD 165.3 billion by 2023. Despite maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio within internationally accepted thresholds (approximately 45% in 2023), the country faces [...] Read more.

Egypt has experienced a sharp rise in external debt over the past decade, increasing from USD 55.8 billion in 2015 to over USD 165.3 billion by 2023. Despite maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio within internationally accepted thresholds (approximately 45% in 2023), the country faces mounting economic distress, including foreign exchange shortages, currency depreciation, and rising debt-servicing burdens. This study argues that Egypt’s crisis stems not from excessive borrowing but from ineffective debt management, particularly the misalignment between debt maturities and the economic returns of financed projects. Using annual data from 2010 to 2023—a period deliberately selected to capture Egypt’s post-2011 political and economic transition—the analysis applies a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Granger causality test to explore short-term interactions between short-term and long-term external debt, the exchange rate, and foreign reserves. While the small sample size limits long-term econometric inference, it provides meaningful insights into short-term debt dynamics and liquidity pressures characteristic of Egypt’s current economic phase. The results show that short-term debt exerts significant depreciative pressure on the currency, while long-term debt weakly undermines reserves when tied to non-revenue-generating projects. Policy recommendations emphasize improving debt maturity alignment, enhancing transparency, and linking debt servicing to productive investments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

23 pages, 617 KB

Open AccessArticle

Market Currents and Policy Winds: Sectoral Responses to Monetary and Fiscal Shifts Across Regimes

by Ojo Johnson Adelakun and Yeukai Memorial Rudzi

Economies 2025, 13(11), 320; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110320 - 8 Nov 2025

Viewed by 1097

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates how South Africa’s sectoral stock market performance responds to monetary and fiscal policy shifts across two macroeconomic regimes: the pre-inflation targeting (Pre-IT) and the inflation targeting (IT) periods. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MS-DR) model, the paper [...] Read more.

Purpose: This study investigates how South Africa’s sectoral stock market performance responds to monetary and fiscal policy shifts across two macroeconomic regimes: the pre-inflation targeting (Pre-IT) and the inflation targeting (IT) periods. Design/methodology/approach: Employing a Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MS-DR) model, the paper explores non-linear and state-dependent relationships between policy instruments (interest rate, money supply, government expenditure, tax revenue, exchange rate, and inflation) and the performance of the industrial, financial, and resource sectors. Findings: The results reveal regime- and sector-specific heterogeneities. In the Pre-IT era, monetary policy exhibited stronger contractionary effects, while fiscal policy had mixed impacts. Under IT, sectoral responses were moderated, with inflation stability supporting industrial and financial sectors during expansions but dampening resource sector performance in recessions. Practical implications: The findings highlight the need for sector-specific and state-contingent policy designs to enhance macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. Industrial and resource sectors, being more labour-intensive, require tailored support during downturns. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the literature by providing novel evidence on how structural changes in policy regimes affect the transmission of macroeconomic policies to different stock market sectors in South Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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15 pages, 530 KB

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Economic, Social, and Environmental Drivers of Human Development in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach

by Soumaya Hechmi

Economies 2025, 13(11), 319; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110319 - 8 Nov 2025

Viewed by 556

Abstract

The paper investigates the economic, social, and environmental determinants of Vietnam’s Human Development Index (HDI) for the years 1990–2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, short-run and long-run relationships between HDI and GDP per capita growth, life expectancy, CO₂ [...] Read more.

The paper investigates the economic, social, and environmental determinants of Vietnam’s Human Development Index (HDI) for the years 1990–2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, short-run and long-run relationships between HDI and GDP per capita growth, life expectancy, CO₂ emissions, trade openness, and unemployment are investigated. The results indicate that GDP per capita growth, CO₂ emissions, and trade openness positively and significantly influence HDI in both time periods, while unemployment has a negative influence. Life expectancy has a significant positive influence in the short term but is insignificant in the long term. Diagnostic tests validate the robustness of the model, and stability tests indicate parameter constancy. Robustness tests through the use of FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators validate the main findings. The report provides policy-relevant suggestions for sustaining Vietnam’s human development gains, emphasizing how to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability and labour market inclusion. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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13 pages, 450 KB

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South Africa’s Two-Pot Retirement Savings Model Under Labor Market Uncertainty

by Tichaona Chikore and Farai Nyabadza

Economies 2025, 13(11), 318; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110318 - 7 Nov 2025

Viewed by 464

Abstract

This study addresses the critical challenge of designing retirement savings systems that effectively balance liquidity needs and long-term accumulation in contexts characterized by high unemployment and labor market instability, with a focus on South Africa. Traditional pension schemes often assume uninterrupted careers and [...] Read more.

This study addresses the critical challenge of designing retirement savings systems that effectively balance liquidity needs and long-term accumulation in contexts characterized by high unemployment and labor market instability, with a focus on South Africa. Traditional pension schemes often assume uninterrupted careers and stable incomes, assumptions frequently violated in low- and middle-income countries, leading to inadequate retirement security and consumption volatility during working life. Motivated by this gap, we develop a stochastic two-pot retirement savings model that explicitly integrates labor market uncertainty using a Markov chain-based Monte Carlo simulation. The model allocates annual contributions between an accessible savings pot and a locked retirement pot, with individuals optimizing consumption and withdrawal decisions to maximize expected lifetime utility under Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) preferences. Our findings, derived from calibration to South African labor data, reveal that high unemployment and career uncertainty significantly increase the welfare-maximizing preference for liquidity. This result challenges conventional policies prescribing fixed contribution allocations, such as the one-third/two-thirds split in the new two-pot system, and underscores the importance of flexible retirement savings designs. We conclude that tailoring pension design to labor market realities can enhance both retirement security and welfare in volatile economies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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29 pages, 388 KB

Open AccessArticle

Free Banking Stablecoins

by Pythagoras Petratos and Brian Baugus

Economies 2025, 13(11), 317; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110317 - 6 Nov 2025

Viewed by 531

Abstract

Monetary policy and central banks faced significant challenges in recent decades, like the Great Recession and the 2008–2009 financial crisis, and the Global Inflation Surge of 2021–2022. The introduction of blockchain technology triggered major financial innovations. Nevertheless, the adoption of digital currencies and [...] Read more.

Monetary policy and central banks faced significant challenges in recent decades, like the Great Recession and the 2008–2009 financial crisis, and the Global Inflation Surge of 2021–2022. The introduction of blockchain technology triggered major financial innovations. Nevertheless, the adoption of digital currencies and stablecoins in particular has been limited and does not have wide and everyday use, like national currencies. To understand non-national currency usage better, we examine free banking in Scotland and the U.S., and specifically note issuance. Lessons from these periods suggest the importance of reserves and coordination mechanisms. Based on these free banking cases, we propose that banks and corporations should have the freedom to issue their own stablecoins. More specifically, we examine the freedom for regulated banks to issue their own stablecoins in a competitive environment, learning from historical precedents how to manage such a system. Free banking stablecoins could provide significant benefits, especially in countries with unstable monetary systems, like emerging economies. Such benefits can range from better monetary policy, inflation targeting, and stability, to a broader range of innovative financial markets and services that can contribute towards entrepreneurship, investments, and economic development. Citizens, entrepreneurs, and domestic and foreign investors can gain from these benefits. At the same time, the banking sector and financial institutions can maintain an important role and further expand and develop by offering innovative financial services in an evolving and challenging environment due to financial technology and disintermediation. Finally, governments and central banks could also benefit from increased financial inclusion, higher economic growth and development, but also from more competition and financial stability, and from financial innovation and technology services. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Monetary Policy and Central Banking: Challenges in the Current Environment)

25 pages, 1390 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Cost of Chronicity: Analyzing the Direct Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases in the U.S. from 1996 to 2040

by Maria Rosa Nieto and Odra A. Saucedo-Delgado

Economies 2025, 13(11), 316; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110316 - 5 Nov 2025

Viewed by 1340

Abstract

The mounting prevalence of chronic diseases poses a substantial public health and economic burden, particularly in aging societies such as the United States. Focusing on both direct healthcare expenditure and indirect costs such as productivity loss, this study examines the economic burden of [...] Read more.

The mounting prevalence of chronic diseases poses a substantial public health and economic burden, particularly in aging societies such as the United States. Focusing on both direct healthcare expenditure and indirect costs such as productivity loss, this study examines the economic burden of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) from 1996 to 2040. A multidisciplinary approach is employed, integrating panel data models to identify determinants of real healthcare spending across ten chronic conditions and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting model to estimate future expenditure as a share of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The estimations are based on data available for the period 1996–2015, which serve as the foundation for projections up to 2040. The results show that chronic diseases—especially cardiovascular conditions, diabetes, and respiratory illnesses—are associated with persistent increases in public and private healthcare costs and substantial reductions in labor productivity. Disparities by age, income, and race further intensify this burden. Projections suggest that the financial impact of chronic diseases will escalate significantly through 2040, exceeding the rate of GDP growth. Our study concludes that indirect costs are often underestimated in many models, which limits accurate fiscal planning. We thus underscore the need for integrated economic health forecasting tools to support sustainable, equity-focused health policies. These findings support calls for increased investment in prevention, coordinated chronic care, and more robust data systems to anticipate long-term health and economic outcomes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Health Economics)

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20 pages, 739 KB

Open AccessArticle

Digital Skills and Digital Transformation Performance in the EU-27: A DESI-Based Nonparametric and Panel Data Study

by Beata Sofrankova, Elena Sira, Jarmila Horvathova and Martina Mokrisova

Economies 2025, 13(11), 315; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110315 - 4 Nov 2025

Viewed by 934

Abstract

Digital skills represent a key dimension of digital transformation, shaping the innovation potential, competitiveness, and long-term sustainability of the European economy. The aim of this paper is to compare the development of digital skills in EU-27 countries from 2018 to 2024 and identify [...] Read more.

Digital skills represent a key dimension of digital transformation, shaping the innovation potential, competitiveness, and long-term sustainability of the European economy. The aim of this paper is to compare the development of digital skills in EU-27 countries from 2018 to 2024 and identify the strengths and weaknesses within the European context. The analysis is based on secondary data from the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI). From the total of 36 indicators included in DESI, 12 variables were selected, with an emphasis on 3 core digital-skills metrics: Internet use, ICT specialists, and ICT graduates. To assess their interrelationships and linkages with overall digital transformation performance, non-parametric correlation analyses (Kendall’s Tau and Spearman’s rank correlation) were applied. Furthermore, across-year nonparametric tests (Friedman ANOVA with Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, W) were used to evaluate year-to-year differences and the stability of country rankings over 2018–2024. The empirical results confirmed that higher levels of digital skills are associated with stronger digital transformation performance among EU member states, while significant cross-country disparities persist. Germany and the Nordic economies (Finland, Sweden, and Denmark) achieved the best results, while Southern and Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, Portugal, and Greece lagged behind. These findings highlight the strategic role of digital education, ICT specialization, and lifelong learning initiatives in promoting sustainable digital transformation and competitiveness across Europe. In addition, panel regression analysis confirmed that digital infrastructure, particularly FTTP coverage and Very High Capacity Networks, is a key driver of digital skills development, whereas the effects of business digitalization appear indirect or delayed. The outcomes provide relevant implications for broadband deployment and user-centric digital public services to support the objectives of the EU Digital Decade 2030. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of the determinants of digital skills and digital transformation performance, providing evidence-based guidance for targeted digital policies aimed at reducing the digital divide and strengthening digital transformation performance within the European Union. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Development in the European Union Countries)

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18 pages, 438 KB

Open AccessArticle

Green Trade, Economic Complexity and Green Indicators: Evidence in Asia Countries with PPML Fixed Effects Model

by Indraswati Tri Abdi Reviane, Abdul Hamid Paddu, Nur Dwiana Sari Saudi, Hefrizal Handra and Aditya Idris

Economies 2025, 13(11), 314; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110314 - 4 Nov 2025

Viewed by 627

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between green trade, economic complexity, and green indicators in Asian countries using a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) fixed effects model. This study uses panel data from 33 countries in the Asia region, focusing on the national level [...] Read more.

This study investigates the relationship between green trade, economic complexity, and green indicators in Asian countries using a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) fixed effects model. This study uses panel data from 33 countries in the Asia region, focusing on the national level of each country from 2010 to 2023. The analysis explores how economic sophistication and environmental indicators influence the capacity of economies to engage in sustainable trade. The findings reveal that economic complexity significantly enhances green trade, underscoring the role of knowledge-intensive production structures in fostering environmentally friendly export performance. Among the green indicators, green economic opportunities demonstrate a positive and significant effect on green trade, which indicates that economies allocating greater financial resources to renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure are better positioned to expand their participation in eco-friendly markets. This signals strong trade readiness and market-driven incentives. Conversely, green innovation shows a negative and significant effect, indicating that innovation is not yet translating into export competitiveness, is still costly, and is in an early phase. Moreover, economic complexity and renewable energy show positive and significant effects, reflecting that higher complexity enables the adoption of green technologies, the embedding of sustainability in value chains, and the export of high-value green products. These results suggest that green economic opportunities and regional dynamics play a complementary role in shaping outcomes, with proximity to innovation hubs amplifying the capacity for sustainable trade. The study contributes to the literature by linking economic complexity with green trade in the Asian context, offering evidence-based recommendations to enhance sustainability-driven growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section International, Regional, and Transportation Economics)

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49 pages, 4247 KB

Open AccessArticle

Ripples of Global Fear: Transmission of Investor Sentiment and Financial Stress to GCC Sectoral Stock Volatility

by Mosab I. Tabash, Suzan Sameer Issa, Marwan Mansour, Azzam Hannoon and Ştefan Cristian Gherghina

Economies 2025, 13(11), 313; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110313 - 31 Oct 2025

Viewed by 4582

Abstract

This study analyzes how sectoral stock volatility in the GCC region responds to global financial uncertainty shocks originating from the U.S. (CBOE VIX), Europe (VSTOXX-50), Bitcoin investors’ Sentiment Indices (BSI), and disaggregated global Financial Stress Indicators (FSI) by using both the “Frequency” and [...] Read more.

This study analyzes how sectoral stock volatility in the GCC region responds to global financial uncertainty shocks originating from the U.S. (CBOE VIX), Europe (VSTOXX-50), Bitcoin investors’ Sentiment Indices (BSI), and disaggregated global Financial Stress Indicators (FSI) by using both the “Frequency” and “Time” domain TVP-VAR based connectivity approaches. The “Time” and “Frequency” domain TVP-VAR results indicate that the Energy, Financials, Materials and REIT sectors experience the highest shock spillover from the U.S. and European equity market uncertainty (VIX and VSTOXX-50) for the overall and long-term investment horizons. Whereas, all the five disaggregated global financial stress indicators and BSI transmit higher shocks spillovers towards the sectoral stock conditional volatility of Energy and Materials sectors for the overall and long-term investment horizons. Furthermore, the “Frequency” domain TVP-VAR approach shows that overall shocks spillovers are higher in long-term and intensified during the COVID-19 period. The Energy, Materials, and REIT sectors’ high sensitivity to U.S.VIX and Euro.VSTOXX-50 shocks calls for sector-specific hedging—such as sectors remain least susceptibility to long-term U.S. and European equity risk shocks such as Utility. Over the long-term and overall investment horizons, the Energy and Material sectors’ position as the main shock recipient from all five global financial stress components and the BSI underscores its role as a volatility hub. Policymakers should enforce stress tests and capital buffers for energy and material focused firms, while proactive liquidity management and commodity hedging are vital during global financial stress and BSI spikes to limit funding and operational risks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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61 pages, 2202 KB

Open AccessArticle

Deterministic and Stochastic Macrodynamic Models for Developing Economies’ Policies: An Analysis of the Brazilian Economy

by Milton Biage, Pierre Joseph Nelcide and Guilherme de Ferreira Lima, Jr.

Economies 2025, 13(11), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110312 - 31 Oct 2025

Viewed by 385

Abstract

This work verifies the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in Brazil, involving real GDP, the Interest index, Inflation index, real Exchange rate, and actual public debt, using empirical data from January 1998 to December 2018 to calibrate the model. In the analyses, [...] Read more.

This work verifies the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in Brazil, involving real GDP, the Interest index, Inflation index, real Exchange rate, and actual public debt, using empirical data from January 1998 to December 2018 to calibrate the model. In the analyses, we employ macrodynamic deterministic and stochastic models of differential equations to examine the interconnection of the endogenous variables and the stability of Brazilian economic policy. In the stochastic model, we introduced stochastic perturbations in the uncontrollable coefficients and additive random walks affecting the endogenous variables. Shocks imposed on the structured dynamic model showed that stochastic innovations propagate more strongly in the monetary variables: inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. We have also established forecasts for endogenous variables from January 2019 to December 2026 and conducted backtest analyses using the empirical data observed for the endogenous variables from January 2019 to December 2023. The forecast estimations were demonstrated to be satisfactory. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Applied Economics: Trade, Growth and Policy Modeling)

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21 pages, 1379 KB

Open AccessArticle

Urban Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Under Displacement Pressures: Evidence from Tigray, Ethiopia

by Yibrah Hagos Gebresilassie, Hafte Gebreslassie Gebrihet and Beyene Gebremichael Gessesow

Economies 2025, 13(11), 311; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110311 - 31 Oct 2025

Viewed by 657

Abstract

Food insecurity remains a pressing challenge in conflict zones, where disrupted livelihoods, mass displacement, and eroded institutional support increase household risk. The armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region erupted in November 2020, devastating infrastructure, displacing over a million people, and amplifying urban hunger. [...] Read more.

Food insecurity remains a pressing challenge in conflict zones, where disrupted livelihoods, mass displacement, and eroded institutional support increase household risk. The armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region erupted in November 2020, devastating infrastructure, displacing over a million people, and amplifying urban hunger. This study assessed the effects of war-induced internal displacement on the vulnerability of urban households to food insecurity (VFI) in Tigray’s host communities. Using cross-sectional data from 560 households surveyed in May–June 2024, we computed food insecurity using the Household Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and applied ordered logit regression to identify the drivers of VFI. The findings indicate that 14.46% of households were food-secure, with 21.43%, 35.54%, and 28.57% facing mild, moderate, and severe vulnerability, respectively. Significant predictors included household head age, education, widowed status (especially for women), and humanitarian aid receipt, allied with displacement scale and conflict damages, which elevated vulnerability. These results underscore the need for integrated interventions that blend emergency aid with livelihood restoration. Policies must target at-risk groups, rebuild assets, and enhance access to education and financial resources. Ultimately, facilitating the repatriation of internally displaced persons is vital for post-conflict recovery in the Tigray and analogous settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Food Security and Healthy Nutrition)

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27 pages, 547 KB

Open AccessArticle

Derivation of the Pareto Index in the Economic System as a Scale-Free Network and Introduction of New Parameters to Monitor Optimal Wealth and Income Distributions

by John G. Ingersoll

Economies 2025, 13(11), 310; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110310 - 30 Oct 2025

Viewed by 463

Abstract

The purpose of this work is twofold: first, it aims to derive an exact analytical form of the Pareto index based on the already developed model of the economy as a scale-free network comprising a given amount of either wealth or income (total [...] Read more.

The purpose of this work is twofold: first, it aims to derive an exact analytical form of the Pareto index based on the already developed model of the economy as a scale-free network comprising a given amount of either wealth or income (total number of links, each link representing a non-zero amount or quantum of income or wealth) distributed among its variable number of actors (nodes), all of whom have equal access to the system), and second, it aims to employ the derived analytical form of the Pareto index to determine the degree to which the observed inequality in wealth and in income as measured by the respective empirical values of the Pareto index is inherent in the economic system rather than the result of externally imposed factors invariably reflecting a lack of equal access. The derived analytical form of the Pareto index for wealth or for income is described by an exponential function whose exponent is the inverse of the average number of wealth or of income per actor (one-half of the average number of links per node) in the economic model. This exponent features prominently in the scale-free model of the economy and has a numerical value of 0.69 when the Pareto index attains a numerical value of 2, which signifies the optimal, albeit still unequal, distribution of wealth or of income in the economy under the condition of equal access. Because of the correspondence of the scale-free model of the economy to a physical system comprising quantum particles such as photons in thermodynamic equilibrium or state of maximum entropy in accordance with the laws of statistical mechanics, the inverse of the exponent is proportional to the temperature of the economic system, and a new parameter introduced to describe in a comprehensible manner the deviation in the economic system from its optimal distribution of wealth or income. A comparison of the empirical wealth and income Pareto indexes based on economic data for the four largest economies in the word, i.e., USA, China, Germany, and Japan, which account for over 50% of the global GDP, versus the corresponding optimal values per the scale-free model of the economy reveals interesting trends that can be explained away by the prevailing degrees of equal access, as manifested by inadequate education, health care, and housing, as well as the existence of rules and institutions favoring certain actors over others, particularly with regard to the accumulation of wealth. It has also been determined that the newly introduced parameters in the scale-free model of the economy of temperature as well as the quanta of wealth and of income should be expressed in power purchase exchange rates for meaningful comparisons among national economies over time. Full article

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26 pages, 624 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Digital Literacy on Rural Women’s Non-Agricultural Employment—Evidence from China

by Su Peng and Xihao Feng

Economies 2025, 13(11), 309; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110309 - 30 Oct 2025

Viewed by 715

Abstract

The rapid popularization of digital technology is profoundly altering the employment landscape; especially in rural areas, the digital economy has opened up unprecedented channels to narrow the gender gap in non-agricultural employment. This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) [...] Read more.

The rapid popularization of digital technology is profoundly altering the employment landscape; especially in rural areas, the digital economy has opened up unprecedented channels to narrow the gender gap in non-agricultural employment. This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2020, employing a two-way fixed effects model to systematically examine the impact of digital literacy on the non-agricultural employment transition of rural women. The findings demonstrate that integrating social learning theory with digital empowerment theory establishes a dual-pathway analytical framework for examining psychological capital and information environments. Through skill development and resource optimization, digital literacy significantly enhances rural women’s employment participation and occupational re-adaptability, with these effects varying across regions and generations. Furthermore, the study reveals how household economic resources and regional development levels exert differential influences on these outcomes by affecting the acquisition and application of digital skills. These findings expand theoretical understanding of non-agricultural employment mechanisms in the digital era and offer practical policy insights. They also provide evidence-based strategies for enhancing women’s employment quality, advancing gender equality, and promoting rural revitalization, offering valuable guidance for developing countries navigating employment challenges through digital transformation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development)

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25 pages, 2033 KB

Open AccessArticle

Graph Neural Networks and Explainable Spillovers: Global Monetary and Oil Shocks in GCC Financial Markets

by Amer Morshed

Economies 2025, 13(11), 308; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110308 - 29 Oct 2025

Viewed by 1084

Abstract

This study investigates how global monetary and oil shocks propagate across advanced and pegged oil economies, focusing on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2015–2023. It examines which transmission channels—liquidity, credit, or [...] Read more.

This study investigates how global monetary and oil shocks propagate across advanced and pegged oil economies, focusing on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2015–2023. It examines which transmission channels—liquidity, credit, or equity—serve as the dominant conduits of spillovers under fixed exchange rate regimes. To address this question, this paper develops a hybrid causal–computational framework that integrates high-frequency identification of monetary and oil shocks with econometric benchmarks (Local Projections and Time-Varying Parameter VARs) and a Graph Neural Network-based Causal Shock Network (GNN-CSN) enhanced with SHAP explainability. The results show that global monetary shocks significantly raise interbank funding costs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while sovereign credit spreads remain largely stable, indicating that liquidity—not credit—constitutes the main transmission channel. Equity markets absorb much of the external adjustment, reflecting sectoral sensitivity to global cycles. By combining causal identification, dynamic estimation, and explainable machine learning, the framework improves predictive accuracy and transparency, offering new evidence on how external shocks shape financial dynamics in resource-dependent, dollar-pegged economies. Full article

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18 pages, 307 KB

Open AccessArticle

Are Institutions, Innovation, and Education the Key to Sustainable Growth in G20 Economies?

by Fırat Cem Dogan

Economies 2025, 13(11), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110307 - 28 Oct 2025

Viewed by 861

Abstract

This study aims to examine the fundamental determinants of economic growth in G20 countries in the context of institutional structure, innovation, and education. The significance of the research lies in revealing that sustainable economic growth is shaped not only by traditional macroeconomic factors [...] Read more.

This study aims to examine the fundamental determinants of economic growth in G20 countries in the context of institutional structure, innovation, and education. The significance of the research lies in revealing that sustainable economic growth is shaped not only by traditional macroeconomic factors but also by the effectiveness of institutions, innovation capacity, and human capital investments. The existing literature contains limited studies that comprehensively address the interactions between these three variables and economic growth, specifically in G20 countries. The study applies panel data analysis to G20 countries for the period 2005–2024 and performs panel Granger causality analysis using fixed and random effects models after horizontal section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests. Empirical findings show that institutions, innovation, and education variables have significant and positive effects on economic growth. Granger causality test results reveal that these variables unidirectionally drive growth, while growth has no feedback effect on these factors. The findings indicate that strengthening institutional reforms, encouraging R&D and innovation investments, and increasing human capital capacity are critical for sustainable and high-quality economic growth for policymakers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Nexus of Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence in a Changing Global Economy)

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Economies, Volume 13, Issue 11 (November 2025) – 33 articles

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