Journal Description
Economies
Economies
is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on development economics and macroeconomics, published monthly online by MDPI.
- Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
- High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), EconLit, EconBiz, RePEc, and other databases.
- Journal Rank: JCR - Q2 (Economics) / CiteScore - Q1 (Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous))
- Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 23.3 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 6.5 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the first half of 2026).
- Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
- Journal Cluster of Economics, Finance and Risk Systems: Commodities, Econometrics, Economies, FinTech, Forecasting, Games, International Journal of Financial Studies, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, Platforms and Risks.
Impact Factor:
2.3 (2025);
5-Year Impact Factor:
2.4 (2025)
Latest Articles
Latency as an Economic Constraint in Digital Markets: Temporal Feasibility, Algorithmic Coordination, and Speed Races
Economies 2026, 14(8), 343; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080343 - 13 Aug 2026
Abstract
Digital markets increasingly coordinate prices, matches, orders, and allocations through automated systems whose decision–execution loops can close faster than humans can intervene. This article develops a microfounded framework in which latency is a temporal feasibility constraint that complements adjustment costs, information delay, costly
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Digital markets increasingly coordinate prices, matches, orders, and allocations through automated systems whose decision–execution loops can close faster than humans can intervene. This article develops a microfounded framework in which latency is a temporal feasibility constraint that complements adjustment costs, information delay, costly information acquisition, queueing, and technological execution costs. The model distinguishes common latency, human intervention latency, and relative latency. Common latency is produced by platform and participant investment and affects welfare through the freshness of the state on which decisions are executed. Human intervention is represented by a smooth, task- and organization-specific probability q(L,z,s), derived from a distribution of completion times and modified by interface and organizational support. Human, hybrid, and algorithmic decision technologies differ in speed, accuracy, cost, and systematic misspecification risk. Relative speed is modeled as a strategic priority contest in which each intermediary’s best response depends on rivals’ investments, while platform rules determine the sensitivity and value of being first. The framework derives conditions for human-algorithm substitution, welfare-improving common-speed investment, socially excessive strategic speed investment, and welfare-enhancing batching or latency floors. It separates temporal from structural market distortions, integrates decision-technology quality and state freshness in a total-welfare function, and develops an incidence model that traces gains across heterogeneous users, intermediaries, and infrastructure owners. Robustness results cover diffusion, mean-reverting, jump, stochastic-volatility, and regime-switching state processes. An illustrative dynamic simulation, explicit scope conditions, and an operational empirical agenda show how the theory can be tested without claiming empirical calibration. The central contribution is a non-equivalence result: when latency enters the probability of successful intervention, shortening the decision window can change the technology and locus of marginal choice even when information, objectives, adjustment costs, and the substantive decision rule are held fixed.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Technologies, Green Transformation and Education for Sustainable Growth)
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A Theory of Endogenous Growth Through Public AI Infrastructure and Digital Crowding-In
by
Ezer Ayadi
Economies 2026, 14(8), 342; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080342 - 13 Aug 2026
Abstract
In this paper, we formulate a new endogenous growth framework designed for the artificial intelligence era. We theorize AI as a hybrid production factor, possessing the non-rivalrous properties of public knowledge and the rivalrous constraints of computing power. By endogenizing the role of
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In this paper, we formulate a new endogenous growth framework designed for the artificial intelligence era. We theorize AI as a hybrid production factor, possessing the non-rivalrous properties of public knowledge and the rivalrous constraints of computing power. By endogenizing the role of public finance, the model demonstrates that strategic government investment in digital infrastructure and AI-specialized human capital acts as a primary catalyst for the marginal productivity of private capital. We derive the Theorem of Digital Optimality, identifying the optimal allocation of tax revenue between physical hardware and intangible intelligence. Our findings suggest that in an AI-driven economy, public spending generates a significant crowding-in effect, shifting the private investment frontier upward. The model warns that failure to optimize these public inputs leads to digital secular stagnation, in which the lack of sovereign digital platforms bottlenecks private-sector innovation.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Public Finance and Economic Growth)
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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging European Economies: Empirical Evidence from Hungary, Poland, and Romania
by
Fatima Kobeissy, Sándor Kovács and Levente Sándor Nádasi
Economies 2026, 14(8), 341; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080341 - 12 Aug 2026
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in three major Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies—Hungary, Poland, and Romania—using quarterly data spanning from 2007-Q1 to 2024-Q4. The exchange rate volatility is modeled
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This study investigates the impact of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in three major Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies—Hungary, Poland, and Romania—using quarterly data spanning from 2007-Q1 to 2024-Q4. The exchange rate volatility is modeled using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework, and country-specific relationships are estimated through Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and Toda–Yamamoto causality analysis. Our research indicates that a uniform relationship does not exist across the region. In Hungary, the utilization of directional FDI data excluding Special Purpose Entities (SPEs), in conjunction with structural breaks and quarterly seasonal controls, reveals a statistically significant nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between long-run exchange rate volatility and FDI inflows. In addition, domestic financial development exerts a substantial buffering effect on the transmission of volatility in Hungary by bypassing SPE flows that previously obscured this effect. In Poland and Romania, a stronger currency consistently discourages investment by reducing cost competitiveness. Romania shows a distinct pattern: volatility initially attracts FDI, and while deeper financial markets meaningfully dampen this effect, the net relationship remains positive, unlike Hungary, where sufficiently deep credit markets fully reverse it. These results suggest that policymakers should look beyond short-term exchange rate stabilization and instead prioritize structural reforms, competitive exchange rate levels, transparent FDI reporting standards, and deeper domestic financial markets to sustain FDI inflows.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Foreign Direct Investment and Investment Policy (3rd Edition))
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From WTO-Centered Governance to a Layered Trade Architecture: Functional Allocation Across Institutional Venues, 2000–2025
by
Klavdij Logožar
Economies 2026, 14(8), 340; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080340 - 12 Aug 2026
Abstract
Global trade governance is being reshaped as multilateral rulemaking and dispute settlement face persistent constraints. However, it remains unclear whether this development signals institutional decline or a layered allocation of governance functions across interconnected venues. This study develops a functional-allocation framework and examines
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Global trade governance is being reshaped as multilateral rulemaking and dispute settlement face persistent constraints. However, it remains unclear whether this development signals institutional decline or a layered allocation of governance functions across interconnected venues. This study develops a functional-allocation framework and examines rulemaking, enforcement, and coordination across the World Trade Organization (WTO), WTO-linked mechanisms, and regional trade agreements (RTAs). The framework distinguishes directly observable functional allocation from functional reallocation as a process-oriented interpretation of institutional change. The analysis combines a mapping of 282 RTA governance events entering into force between 2000 and 2025 with treaty content and institutional design data and a structured comparison of WTO core agreements, differentiated arrangements, enforcement supplements, and plurilateral initiatives. The findings identify a layered trade architecture rather than a simple shift away from the WTO. The WTO retains selected multilateral functions, differentiated arrangements sustain selective cooperation within its framework, and WTO-linked mechanisms supplement constrained appellate enforcement. RTAs provide additional venues for rulemaking, enforcement, and coordination. Among directly classified RTA events, formal adjudication increased from 76.0% in 2000–2004 to 100.0% in 2020–2025. Formal adjudication and institutionalized coordination are also positively associated with core substantive treaty depth. These patterns are consistent with functional allocation across a layered architecture, but do not establish that WTO constraints caused the observed institutional configurations.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trade Fragmentation, Global Value Chains, and Regional Economic Resilience)
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Economic Uncertainty and Gender Gap in Jordan: Macroeconomic Perspective
by
Yaseen M. Altarawneh and Saeed Mahmoud Altarawneh
Economies 2026, 14(8), 339; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080339 - 12 Aug 2026
Abstract
This study investigated the relationship between economic uncertainty and gender inequality in Jordan from a macroeconomic perspective. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study analyzes the short-run and long-run relationships between macroeconomic variables, namely economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and global uncertainty,
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This study investigated the relationship between economic uncertainty and gender inequality in Jordan from a macroeconomic perspective. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, this study analyzes the short-run and long-run relationships between macroeconomic variables, namely economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and global uncertainty, and their association with gender inequality measured by the gender inequality index (GII). The data obtained were from 1990 to 2025. The results suggest the existence of a long-run association between gender inequality and the examined macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that economic growth is associated with lower gender inequality, possibly through improved employment opportunities and greater economic participation among women. Conversely, the results indicate that inflation and unemployment are associated with higher gender inequality, which may reflect the greater economic pressures faced by women, particularly those engaged in vulnerable employment sectors. Furthermore, while the world uncertainty index was not statistically significant as a direct determinant of gender inequality, the findings suggest that potential indirect channels related to labor markets and investment may warrant further investigation. Additionally, the error correction mechanism indicates an adjustment process toward the long-run relationship following short-run deviations. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of promoting inclusive economic growth, strengthening social protection systems, reducing unemployment among women, and supporting policies that enhance women’s economic empowerment and labor market participation in Jordan.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Development Economics: New Perspectives, Evidence and Challenges)
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Artificial Intelligence, Tourism Development, and Ecological Footprint in Advanced Economies: Evidence from MMQR and PQQKRLS Approaches
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Muhammad Sonail, Deyi Xu, Zohaib Hassan, Farrukh Fazal and Mojawir Ahmad Sadat
Economies 2026, 14(8), 338; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080338 - 12 Aug 2026
Abstract
Achieving environmental sustainability, particularly the targets outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action), is a critical global imperative. This investigation analyzes the heterogeneous effects of artificial intelligence (AI), tourism intensity, tourism expenditure, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) share contributed by tourism, natural
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Achieving environmental sustainability, particularly the targets outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action), is a critical global imperative. This investigation analyzes the heterogeneous effects of artificial intelligence (AI), tourism intensity, tourism expenditure, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) share contributed by tourism, natural resource rents, and environmental policy stringency on the ecological footprints of advanced countries from 2000 to 2022. Using a robust analytical framework featuring advanced econometric methods, specifically the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) and an innovative machine learning approach—Panel Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (PQQKRLS)—the research elucidates complex, nonlinear interdependencies. Key empirical results show that AI adoption significantly mitigates ecological footprints across all quantile distributions. Conversely, heightened tourism intensity and increased tourism expenditure are associated with greater environmental degradation. The analysis further indicates a U-shaped tourism–ecological footprint relationship, suggesting that tourism’s economic contribution may initially reduce ecological pressure but may increase it again beyond a certain expansion threshold. These conclusions underscore the necessity for advanced nations to adopt synergistic policy frameworks that strategically leverage AI technologies, promote sustainable tourism practices, and reinforce rigorous environmental governance to advance climate action and ecological sustainability.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Applied Economics: Trade, Growth and Policy Modeling)
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The Relationship Between Healthcare Financing and Social Protection in Ensuring Equity and Fiscal Sustainability
by
Aiymgul Kapenova, Ruslana Ichshanova and Zagira Iskakova
Economies 2026, 14(8), 337; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080337 - 12 Aug 2026
Abstract
Background: Progress toward universal health coverage in Central Asia depends on the interaction between public healthcare financing, broader social protection, and the fiscal capacity of the state. The region is analytically important because five post-Soviet health systems share a common institutional legacy while
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Background: Progress toward universal health coverage in Central Asia depends on the interaction between public healthcare financing, broader social protection, and the fiscal capacity of the state. The region is analytically important because five post-Soviet health systems share a common institutional legacy while differing markedly in income, informality, migration dependence, and public financing arrangements. Methods: The study examines a country–year panel for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan over 2015–2024. Fixed-effects estimates are treated as the principal benchmark. Two-step System Generalized Method of Moments estimates are retained only as sensitivity evidence because the cross-sectional dimension is very small (N = 5). Out-of-pocket expenditure as a share of current health expenditure represents household financial burden, while changes in general government debt measure macro-fiscal pressure. Results: In the reported models, higher social protection expenditure and higher domestic general government health expenditure are negatively associated with the out-of-pocket share. The fixed-effects coefficients are −1.245 and −3.810, respectively; the corresponding System GMM sensitivity estimates are −1.830 and −4.102. Combined social and health expenditure is positively associated with the debt ratio in the fiscal model. These findings are associations rather than causal effects. An illustrative scenario analysis shows that the estimated financing gap to a 5% of GDP public health benchmark varies substantially across countries and assumptions. Conclusions: The results are consistent with a dual-channel framework in which public financing can shift health risk away from households while creating fiscal pressure when revenue mobilization and expenditure efficiency do not adjust. Policy implications therefore concern the composition, targeting, and financing of expenditure rather than spending expansion alone. The limited sample, incomplete interpolation audit trail, and incomplete archived GMM diagnostics require cautious interpretation and motivate replication with household and subnational data.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Health Expenditures and Economic Resilience: Macro Perspectives)
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Oil Rents, Budget Rigidity, and the Cyclical Compression of Education Financing in Kuwait
by
Muna Husain
Economies 2026, 14(8), 336; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080336 - 11 Aug 2026
Abstract
This paper examines how oil price cycles shape the composition of public spending in Kuwait, focusing on education in a rentier state where roughly 90% of government revenue derives from hydrocarbons. Using a newly reconstructed series of audited final-account expenditure covering 22 fiscal
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This paper examines how oil price cycles shape the composition of public spending in Kuwait, focusing on education in a rentier state where roughly 90% of government revenue derives from hydrocarbons. Using a newly reconstructed series of audited final-account expenditure covering 22 fiscal years (FY2002/03–FY2023/24), we document a pattern consistent with pervasive budget rigidity. Within a fiscal year, neither education’s expenditure share nor the growth gap between total and education spending shows any detectable association with oil rents Over 3-year horizons, total expenditure growth is associated with oil rents at roughly twice the elasticity of education spending (1.19 vs. 0.55), and this differential is associated with a compression of education’s share of approximately 0.06 percentage points per percentage point of oil rents (bootstrap p ≈ 0.009). The real-spending results are robust across synthetic deflators spanning CPI −1 to CPI +3 percentage points per year. Benchmarking against other wage-heavy ministries indicates that the pattern is general rather than education-specific: health, defense, and interior shares display comparable compression, and the combined wage-heavy bloc loses roughly 0.23 percentage points per percentage point of rents. Education-financing volatility in Kuwait thus appears largely structural, rooted in wage-anchored budget rigidity, and countercyclical fiscal rules with expenditure smoothing offer a route to more predictable investment.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
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Transmission of Global Gold and US Monetary Shocks to a Small Open Economy: Evidence from the United Arab Emirates
by
Mark A. Ritter
Economies 2026, 14(8), 335; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080335 - 11 Aug 2026
Abstract
This study quantifies the transmission of global gold price shocks and US monetary shocks to the refining and trade sector of the United Arab Emirates, and the resulting response of real GDP. As an intermediate node in the global gold value chain, the
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This study quantifies the transmission of global gold price shocks and US monetary shocks to the refining and trade sector of the United Arab Emirates, and the resulting response of real GDP. As an intermediate node in the global gold value chain, the UAE is exposed to upstream prices, Asian demand, logistics frictions, and, through the AED-USD peg, the US monetary stance. Quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2025Q4 are used to construct cointegration and error-correction analysis, a structural VAR, and a two-regime threshold error-correction specification. Three cointegrating vectors link gold prices, Asian demand, and logistics costs to UAE refining throughput, re-exports, and gold-linked finance. A US monetary-tightening shock is associated with a contraction across all three UAE variables, whereas a positive gold-price shock is associated with an expansion of similar magnitude. Monetary shocks account for a rising share of forecast error variance at longer horizons, and adjustment is faster in high-rate regimes than in low-rate regimes. Long-run GDP estimates for re-exports are positive and stable; the gold-linked finance estimate is conditional on a calibrated proxy. Scenario simulations shift quarterly GDP growth by 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points, supporting commodity-hub indicators in the macroeconomic monitoring of small open economies under fixed exchange rates.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Economics of Energy Transition: Policy Frameworks and Innovations)
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Fiscal and Structural Drivers of Regional Investments Divergence: Evidence from Kazakhstan and European Benchmark Economies
by
Ainagul Adambekova, Almas Appazov, Ramil Muslimov, Nazigul Amankeldi, Nurlan Satanbekov and Kalkash Abubakirova
Economies 2026, 14(8), 334; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080334 - 11 Aug 2026
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This study investigates whether the interaction between structural characteristics and fiscal mechanisms determines regional investment allocation and contributes to regional divergence in Kazakhstan. To achieve this aim, panel regression with interaction effects and cross-country benchmarking are employed for 2005–2025, and the influence of
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This study investigates whether the interaction between structural characteristics and fiscal mechanisms determines regional investment allocation and contributes to regional divergence in Kazakhstan. To achieve this aim, panel regression with interaction effects and cross-country benchmarking are employed for 2005–2025, and the influence of structural characteristics and fiscal mechanisms on the efficiency and spatial distribution of investment is assessed. The methodology combines panel regression with interaction effects and comparative cross-country analysis. The model includes fiscal variables (budgets, subsidies), structural indicators (industrial shares, business density), and interactions (industry x budget, agriculture x budget). Additionally, benchmarking is conducted with European countries, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Norway, using log-difference and coefficient variation. The results show that investment allocation is associated with divergence rather than convergence. The negative effects of subsidies and industrial concentration indicate the limitations of redistributive and sectoral factors. At the same time, positive interaction effects confirm that investment is effective when fiscal structural conditions are aligned. Business density acts as a sustainable driver of growth. A cross-country analysis demonstrates that countries with a more balanced structure and institutional environment achieve greater resilience and less differentiation. The results highlight the nonlinear and structurally determined nature of investment. They point to the need for policies focused on diversification, entrepreneurship development, and the alignment of fiscal instruments with regional economies.
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National Milk Output and Producer Structure in Kazakhstan: An Exploratory Econometric Assessment and Evidence-Informed Policy Discussion
by
Ainur Yesbolova
Economies 2026, 14(8), 333; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080333 - 11 Aug 2026
Abstract
The continued prominence of household production characterizes Kazakhstan’s dairy sector, but the aggregate relationships between this producer structure, animal productivity, wider livestock-sector activity, and national milk output have not been examined over a common recent series with explicit time-series diagnostics. This study therefore
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The continued prominence of household production characterizes Kazakhstan’s dairy sector, but the aggregate relationships between this producer structure, animal productivity, wider livestock-sector activity, and national milk output have not been examined over a common recent series with explicit time-series diagnostics. This study therefore conducts a policy-oriented exploratory econometric assessment of annual country-level data for 2007–2024 (n = 18) from the Bureau of National Statistics. Eight production, structural, and economic indicators are described. Because an eight-predictor regression with only 18 observations would be severely overparameterized, the revised ordinary least squares equation is restricted to three theory-guided regressors: average milk yield per cow (x3), household milk production (x4), and gross livestock output at current prices (x5). The level equation has R2 = 0.938 and adjusted R2 = 0.925, but inference is based on Newey–West HAC(1) standard errors because the residuals exhibit serial correlation and the White test indicates heteroskedasticity. Household milk production has a positive conditional coefficient (b = 1.330; HAC p < 0.001), although the relationship is partly mechanical because household milk is a component of national output. Gross livestock output is positive in levels (b = 0.421; HAC p = 0.0046) but not in first differences, and average yield is positive but not statistically significant (b = 1.712; HAC p = 0.269). The contribution is a diagnostically qualified account of how producer structure and selected sector indicators co-moved with national milk output, together with an explicit evidence-to-policy framework. The findings do not identify causal effects or validate a forecast. Policy options are consequently framed as proposals for piloting and evaluation, not as impacts demonstrated by the regression.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development (2nd Edition))
Open AccessPerspective
Beyond Supply Security: Territorial Service Security for Regional Science in an Age of Compound Shocks
by
Francesco Rouhana
Economies 2026, 14(8), 332; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080332 - 10 Aug 2026
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Contemporary regional shocks are no longer experienced primarily as isolated supply interruptions. They are increasingly lived as disruptions to essential services: cooling during heatwaves, mobility during fuel or transit disruptions, digital connectivity during infrastructure failures, and affordable warmth in volatile energy markets. This
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Contemporary regional shocks are no longer experienced primarily as isolated supply interruptions. They are increasingly lived as disruptions to essential services: cooling during heatwaves, mobility during fuel or transit disruptions, digital connectivity during infrastructure failures, and affordable warmth in volatile energy markets. This paper develops the concept of territorial service security, defined as the capacity of places to maintain affordable, reliable, and equitable access to essential services under compound shocks, including cascading disruptions. The framework complements conventional resilience indicators such as employment, output, income, and productivity by examining how economic capacity is translated into effective service access across places. Drawing on research on regional resilience, provisioning systems, services of general interest, and spatial justice, the paper highlights how housing, transport, digital networks, public services, institutions, and spatial inequality mediate the effects of disruption. It then presents an integrative conceptual framework, outlines a comparative research agenda, and identifies place-based policy implications for resilient regional development. The paper argues that the next frontier for regional science is not only to secure inputs, but to redesign territories so that everyday services remain affordable, accessible, flexible, and just under stress.
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Evolution of the Minimum and Average Wage in the Countries of the European Union
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Athanasios Nazos, Georgios Konteos, Grigorios Giannarakis and Yakinthi Pavlaki
Economies 2026, 14(8), 331; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080331 - 10 Aug 2026
Abstract
This paper synthesises the available evidence on the evolution of statutory minimum and average wages across European Union Member States over the period 2019–2024. It examines patterns of wage convergence and wage adequacy, the implementation of Directive (EU) 2022/2041 on adequate minimum wages,
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This paper synthesises the available evidence on the evolution of statutory minimum and average wages across European Union Member States over the period 2019–2024. It examines patterns of wage convergence and wage adequacy, the implementation of Directive (EU) 2022/2041 on adequate minimum wages, and their implications for broader labour market developments. The core period of analysis is 2019–2024. Earlier years are used only as historical or institutional background, while selected 2025 references are used for contextual policy updates and not as part of the main comparative period. The analysis draws upon peer-reviewed academic literature alongside official institutional and statistical data from Eurofound, Eurostat, the European Commission, the OECD, the ECB, and national authorities. The central research question asks whether recent increases in statutory minimum wages and average wages have contributed to upward wage convergence and wage adequacy across EU Member States, and under which institutional and macroeconomic conditions these developments have affected inequality, employment, inflationary pressures, and competitiveness. Its theoretical framework is grounded in the concepts of wage spillover and wage compression effects, the wage–price spiral debate, and institutional approaches to collective bargaining and wage setting. Evidence indicates substantial nominal increases in statutory minimum wages in most EU countries, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where upward wage convergence has reduced the gap with Western European countries. Despite concerns about inflationary pressures, the evidence does not support the existence of a generalised wage–price spiral. Instead, wage increases largely represent compensatory responses to externally driven inflation, producing moderate spillover effects on neighbouring wage levels and contributing to a partial compression of wage inequality at the lower end of the wage distribution. The study also identifies continuing challenges, including youth unemployment, precarious forms of employment, regional wage disparities and uneven collective bargaining coverage. It concludes that sustainable and adequate wage floors are best supported by transparent adjustment criteria, productivity growth, effective labour inspection, investment in skills and training, and inclusive collective bargaining institutions.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Labour Market Dynamics in European Countries)
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Vehicle Registrations as a Leading Indicator of the Spanish Business Cycle: Machine Learning and Classical Forecasting Approaches
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Rodrigo Gragera, Rufino Prieto and Carlos Poza
Economies 2026, 14(8), 330; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080330 - 9 Aug 2026
Abstract
Timely identification of business-cycle turning points is essential for policymakers, firms and investors, yet traditional macroeconomic indicators are often published with considerable delays. This study examines whether vehicle registrations constitute an effective Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the Spanish economy and proposes an
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Timely identification of business-cycle turning points is essential for policymakers, firms and investors, yet traditional macroeconomic indicators are often published with considerable delays. This study examines whether vehicle registrations constitute an effective Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the Spanish economy and proposes an integrated framework combining business-cycle analysis, monthly forecasting and daily nowcasting. The cyclical properties of registrations are analyzed using the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter, cross-correlation analysis and the Bry–Boschan dating algorithm. Monthly forecasting performance is evaluated by comparing TBATS and Prophet through rolling-origin cross-validation, while a novel machine learning-inspired distribution model (MD) is developed to transform monthly forecasts into daily estimates. The results show that passenger-car registrations anticipate industrial production by three to five months, with a ninety per cent bootstrap interval of one to six. TBATS consistently outperforms Prophet in one-step-ahead forecasting. An out-of-sample test confirms that lagged registrations reduce the forecast error of industrial production without recourse to two-sided filtering, although the reduction is modest in magnitude and is not found for quarterly GDP. The proposed MD-shallow model achieves the highest distributional accuracy, surpassing both Prophet and a persistence benchmark. The findings demonstrate that vehicle registrations are a valuable standalone Leading Economic Indicator and that integrating traditional economic indicators with advanced forecasting techniques improves real-time monitoring of automotive demand and business-cycle dynamics. The proposed framework provides a practical tool for policymakers, manufacturers, and researchers seeking earlier and more reliable assessments of economic activity.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Next-Generation Macroeconomics: Data-Driven and Artificial Intelligence Approaches)
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Institutional Quality and Tax Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from a Panel ARDL-PMG Analysis
by
Omobolade Stephen Ogundele and Lulama Boyce
Economies 2026, 14(8), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080329 - 9 Aug 2026
Abstract
This study examines the effect of institutional quality on tax revenue mobilization in 10 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries spanning from 2002 to 2023. The period was chosen because it captures a significant era of fiscal and institutional reforms across Sub-Saharan Africa. The
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This study examines the effect of institutional quality on tax revenue mobilization in 10 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries spanning from 2002 to 2023. The period was chosen because it captures a significant era of fiscal and institutional reforms across Sub-Saharan Africa. The data explored in this study originate from the World Development Indicators (WDI) dataset. The data includes tax revenue mobilization, institutional quality components such as regulatory quality (REQ), voice and accountability (VOA), control of corruption (COC), rule of law (ROL) and government effectiveness (GOE) and political stability (POS). The study also explored some other control variables such as GDP Growth, macroeconomic stability (Inflation) and international economic integration (FDI Inflows and Trade Openness). The study explored total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP to proxy tax revenue mobilization. Utilizing a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique, the study analyzes the distinct short-run and long-run dynamics of fiscal capacity. The empirical results reveal a robust long-run cointegrating relationship, evidenced by a statistically significant and negative Error Correction Term (ECT) of −0.1858, which suggests that an 18.6% annual deviation from equilibrium is corrected within the following year. The long-run estimates indicate that institutional quality is a pivotal catalyst for tax. Additionally, inflation and trade openness exhibit significant and positive long-run effects, while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) exerts a significant damping effect on tax revenue, likely due to aggressive tax incentives. Conversely, the short-run results revealed a significant effect of institutional quality, which suggests that stricter regulations and administrative overhauls may cause immediate transition costs and compliance shocks. Robustness checks using disaggregated institutional quality indicators, which include control of corruption, rule of law and government effectiveness, consistently validate the primary findings. The study concludes that while institutional reforms may disrupt revenue collection in the short term, they are indispensable for building a sustainable long-term social contract and expanding the formal base. Policymakers should prioritize institutional transparency and trade integration while rationalizing FDI-related tax holidays.
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Optimization of Investment Structure: Driving Tourism Economic Growth in Kazakhstan (2003–2023)
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Akerke Amirbayeva, Zhulduz Nizamatdinova, Gulnar Saparova, Lyailya Mutaliyeva and Saniya Saginova
Economies 2026, 14(8), 328; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080328 - 8 Aug 2026
Abstract
For transition economies seeking economic diversification and macroeconomic stability, optimizing the allocation of tourism investments between hospitality infrastructure and cultural assets remains a critical challenge. The primary purpose of this study is to determine how these different components of capital affect the gross
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For transition economies seeking economic diversification and macroeconomic stability, optimizing the allocation of tourism investments between hospitality infrastructure and cultural assets remains a critical challenge. The primary purpose of this study is to determine how these different components of capital affect the gross value added of the national tourism sector. The significance of the results was tested using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds approach over the period from 2003 to 2023. An error correction specification was used to examine short-run adjustment, while FM-OLS served as a supplementary estimator of the long-run coefficients. HC3 robust standard errors were applied after heteroskedasticity was detected. The findings provide qualified evidence of a long-run level relationship. Investment in accommodation and food services has a positive and statistically significant association with tourism gross value added. Investment in arts, entertainment, and recreation does not exhibit a statistically significant direct association in the final specifications. This result does not imply that cultural and recreational assets lack tourism value, as their contribution may operate through destination attractiveness, authenticity, visitor experience, and other indirect channels. The results emphasize the importance of coordinated tourism planning and stakeholder partnerships across the hospitality and cultural sectors. Given the limited sample size, these findings and their policy implications should be interpreted with caution.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
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Myanmar Migration to Thailand Post-2021 Coup: Legal Status, Labor Turnover, and Socio-Economic Implications
by
Naw Htee Thaw Thaw, Kansuda Pankwaen, Ngu Wah Win and Worrawat Saijai
Economies 2026, 14(8), 327; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080327 - 6 Aug 2026
Abstract
After the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, many people sought safety, decent work, and social protection in neighboring Thailand. This study examines how legal documentation status and Sense of Place (SOP) are associated with the workplace retention intentions of irregular Myanmar migrant workers
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After the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, many people sought safety, decent work, and social protection in neighboring Thailand. This study examines how legal documentation status and Sense of Place (SOP) are associated with the workplace retention intentions of irregular Myanmar migrant workers in Mae Sot, Thailand. SOP is conceptualized through three key dimensions: emotional bonds to the surrounding environment (place attachment), the extent to which the place meets everyday needs (place dependence), and the way migrants identify with their host context (place identity). To explore these dynamics, we adopted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods approach, surveying 101 respondents between January and April 2024 and subsequently conducting in-depth interviews with 30 individuals between June and July 2024. Given the sensitivity of irregular migration and undocumented legal status, obtaining survey responses was challenging because many potential participants were concerned about privacy, identification, and possible legal exposure. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive comparisons, bivariate association tests with Goodman-calibrated minimum Bayes factors, LASSO-assisted variable screening, principal component analysis, and Bayesian mixed-effects ordinal probit models. The descriptive and bivariate results show that legal documentation status is positively associated with all SOP dimensions, job satisfaction, and willingness to remain in the current job. In the candidate model comparison, the Bayesian specification without legal status showed slightly better predictive performance than the corresponding specification with legal status. The primary five-category Bayesian mixed-effects model indicated positive conditional associations of Job Satisfaction, Place Attachment, and the structural workplace index with willingness to stay. It also indicated heterogeneity in the Place Attachment association across observed job tenure groups; this pattern is interpreted as a cross-sectional between-group difference rather than as evidence of individual change over time. Complementary Bayesian sensitivity analyses evaluate the multidimensional SOP construct, the incremental predictive contribution of legal status, sensitivity to alternative priors, and model diagnostics. The qualitative interviews further show that legal documentation is widely perceived as enabling broader employment opportunities, safer access to basic services, employer support, labor rights protection, and reduced exposure to exploitation. Overall, this study highlights the complementary roles of legal recognition, workplace satisfaction, and emotional rootedness in shaping migrant retention, offering implications for decent work, migrant well-being, reduced inequalities, and sustainable labor and migration policies in Thailand’s border regions, particularly in relation to SDG 8 and SDG 10.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Asian Economy: Constraints and Opportunities (2nd Edition))
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Assessing the Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity of Social Protection Expenditure: A Study of CEE Countries
by
Maya Tsoklinova
Economies 2026, 14(8), 326; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080326 - 6 Aug 2026
Abstract
Reducing poverty and income inequality is a major objective of contemporary social policy. Considerable financial resources are spent on social protection to support this purpose. Since these resources are limited, their efficient use is important for improving poverty and income inequality outcomes. The
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Reducing poverty and income inequality is a major objective of contemporary social policy. Considerable financial resources are spent on social protection to support this purpose. Since these resources are limited, their efficient use is important for improving poverty and income inequality outcomes. The aim of this study is to assess the efficiency and productivity of social protection expenditure in eleven Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU Member States through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI). Three input-oriented DEA models are estimated for 2016–2023, including two poverty-oriented models and one income-distribution-oriented model. The results indicate high efficiency and scale efficiency across countries, but favourable results in both poverty-oriented models are not necessarily accompanied by similar results in the income-distribution-oriented model. MPI decomposition shows that productivity dynamics in the poverty-oriented models reflect mainly technical efficiency changes before the COVID-19 pandemic and technological change thereafter, whereas productivity dynamics in the income-distribution-oriented model reflect mainly technical efficiency changes throughout the period.
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(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)
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State Capital Refocusing and Innovation-Driven Development: Evidence from Beijing Municipal SOEs
by
Xiaofang Cao, Bin Yang, Nan Cao and Binrui Chen
Economies 2026, 14(8), 325; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080325 - 6 Aug 2026
Abstract
This study examines whether state capital refocusing promotes innovation-driven development by reshaping the scale and technological direction of innovation in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using 499 firm-year observations for 42 Beijing municipal SOEs from 2013 to 2024, we distinguish innovation output from innovation allocation
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This study examines whether state capital refocusing promotes innovation-driven development by reshaping the scale and technological direction of innovation in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using 499 firm-year observations for 42 Beijing municipal SOEs from 2013 to 2024, we distinguish innovation output from innovation allocation across invention-oriented, green, and internationally oriented patents. Two-way fixed-effects estimates show that a one-standard-deviation increase in core business focus is associated with increases of 0.610, 0.468, 0.383, and 0.090 log points in overall, invention-oriented, green, and internationally oriented innovation output, respectively. Refocusing also raises the shares of invention-oriented and green innovation, while leaving the international share unchanged. The main patterns remain broadly robust to alternative measures, additional controls, alternative specifications, and a continuous-treatment difference-in-differences design based on the 2020–2022 SOE Reform Three-Year Action Plan. Mechanism analyses provide evidence consistent with industrial-chain control as an important transmission channel, while heterogeneity analyses show that functional missions, industrial-chain positions, and strategic-sector status condition the effects. The findings indicate that state capital refocusing influences not only how much SOEs innovate, but also where innovation resources are directed, providing firm-level evidence on how public-capital reallocation can support mission-oriented innovation.
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(This article belongs to the Special Issue Institutions, Structural Change, and Inclusive Growth in Developing Economies)
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Innovation Across Regions: Exploring the Long-Term Link Between Innovation Effort and Outputs in Spain
by
Khalid Hussein Shlash Al-Mahdawi, Pedro Sánchez-Sellero and Óscar Rodil-Marzábal
Economies 2026, 14(8), 324; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies14080324 - 6 Aug 2026
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This study aims to examine the innovation efforts approach through long-term panel data and its impact on innovation outputs, in contrast to the majority of innovation studies that rely on short-term panel data with limited samples. It also addresses the debate and disparity
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This study aims to examine the innovation efforts approach through long-term panel data and its impact on innovation outputs, in contrast to the majority of innovation studies that rely on short-term panel data with limited samples. It also addresses the debate and disparity in previous studies concerning the effects of R&D on innovation output. The data source is the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) of Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. The results show that internal and external innovation efforts in all of Spain and the other regions of Spain had the most positive effect on innovation output among the regions, while Cataluña, Madrid, and Andalucía exhibited the lowest positive effects. The study recommends establishing coordination between research and training centers with an emphasis on the participation of the national and regional levels, to formulate innovation policies adapted to a business environment.
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