Economies

20 pages, 419 KiB

Open AccessArticle

COVID-19 Lockdown and Implications for Household Food Security in Zambia: Quality of Diet or Economic Vulnerability?

by Richard Bwalya and Chitalu Miriam Chama-Chiliba

Economies 2025, 13(7), 200; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070200 - 9 Jul 2025

The study examines changes in household food security and identifies their key determinants in Zambia by comparing the pre-pandemic period to the COVID-19 pandemic period. Using nationally representative surveys from 2015 and 2021 and the coarsened exact matching (CEM) approach, 8650 households were [...] Read more.

The study examines changes in household food security and identifies their key determinants in Zambia by comparing the pre-pandemic period to the COVID-19 pandemic period. Using nationally representative surveys from 2015 and 2021 and the coarsened exact matching (CEM) approach, 8650 households were matched for comparison. Two complementary food security measures are analysed using multinomial logit regression models: household expenditure share, representing economic vulnerability, and household dietary diversity score (HDDS), representing diet quality. The results show that household food expenditure share significantly increased from 53.8% to 61.4%, indicating increased economic vulnerability. Notably, household dietary diversity improved from 7.1 to 8.2 out of 12, indicating better dietary quality. Consistent determinants of food security—such as household size, education level, marital status, region, and employment—remained significant, but their protective effects weakened during the pandemic. Specifically, the protective effect of education declined, urban households became relatively more vulnerable, and wealthier households experienced minimal changes. The study recommends targeted interventions, including expanding social protection programmes for economically vulnerable households, supporting informal food markets, enhancing rural–urban food supply linkages, and promoting nutrition education to ensure diverse, affordable food access during crises. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Health Financing Vulnerabilities in Africa Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic)

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18 pages, 372 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Linking Global CGE Models and Sectoral Analysis to Evaluate the Impact of Trade Openness in Service Sector Towards Indonesia Agricultural and Agroindustry

by Widyastutik, Birka Septy Meliany, Syarifah Amaliah, Hotsawadi and Amzul Rifin

Economies 2025, 13(7), 199; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070199 - 9 Jul 2025

Abstract

Agriculture is the primary sector sustaining the Indonesian economy. However, appropriate policies are also required to support the service sector. Therefore, this study aims to analyze two central policies: the impact of trade openness and the role of the service sector on agriculture [...] Read more.

Agriculture is the primary sector sustaining the Indonesian economy. However, appropriate policies are also required to support the service sector. Therefore, this study aims to analyze two central policies: the impact of trade openness and the role of the service sector on agriculture and agro-industry in Indonesia. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 2016 input–output tables cover 141 regions and 65 sectors based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Version 10 database. The results show that trade openness in the services sector significantly improves the performance and quality of service provision. The improved performance of the services sector will, in turn, encourage increased production in the agricultural and agro-industrial sectors, which rely heavily on service inputs in the production process. This suggests that trade openness in the services sector is important to sustain the performance of the agricultural sector. Full article

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26 pages, 1005 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Air Pollution in Shaping Urban Cultural Consumption: An Empirical Investigation of PM₁₀ and Movie Consumption in Chinese Cities

by Wei Ma, Zhaolei Liu and Yuning Gao

Economies 2025, 13(7), 198; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070198 - 9 Jul 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the nonlinear effects of air pollution on urban entertainment consumption by analyzing daily PM₁₀ levels and movie box office data across 334 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2022, resulting in a total of 1,250,339 observations. Utilizing a two-way fixed [...] Read more.

This study investigates the nonlinear effects of air pollution on urban entertainment consumption by analyzing daily PM₁₀ levels and movie box office data across 334 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2022, resulting in a total of 1,250,339 observations. Utilizing a two-way fixed effects model and threshold regression framework, we identify three key findings: (1) elevated PM₁₀ concentrations significantly reduce movie attendance, with a 1-unit increase decreasing consumption by 0.0797 units; (2) the inhibitory effect intensifies during weekends and holidays, reflecting heightened sensitivity to pollution during leisure periods; (3) threshold effects emerge, where PM₁₀ exceeding 0.0229 μg/m³ triggers a sharp decline in attendance, while temperature moderates this relationship, amplifying pollution’s negative impact. By integrating meteorological, environmental, and socioeconomic datasets, this research reveals substitution patterns between digital and offline entertainment under pollution stress. The results underscore the necessity for region-specific pollution mitigation strategies, cinema infrastructure upgrades, and dynamic pricing policies to counteract environmental disruptions. These insights advance the interdisciplinary nexus of environmental economics and cultural consumption, offering actionable pathways for sustainable urban development. Full article

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17 pages, 2303 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula

by Jaeho Jung and Kisu Kwon

Economies 2025, 13(7), 197; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070197 - 8 Jul 2025

Abstract

This study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled trials are infeasible [...] Read more.

This study empirically examines whether Brazil’s remarkable economic growth from 2003 to 2010 was primarily driven by Lula’s policies or favorable global economic conditions using the Synthetic Control Method—a robust causal inference technique for assessing policy effects when randomized controlled trials are infeasible and only one treated unit exists. Our analysis suggests that Brazil’s economic performance was largely attributable to external circumstances, while the policies of Lula’s administration may not have significantly enhanced growth. This study demonstrates the robustness of the results through leave-one-out distribution, the ratio of postintervention-period root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) to preintervention-period RMSPE, and in-space placebo tests. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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16 pages, 376 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of the Digital Skills on Employability: Cross-Sectional Analysis

by Biljana Đorđević, Sandra Milanović Zbiljić and Marija Radosavljević

Economies 2025, 13(7), 196; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070196 - 8 Jul 2025

Abstract

Digital skills are increasingly vital for enhancing employability, as they equip individuals to meet the evolving demands of the modern workforce. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of digital skills on employability, focusing on the influence of both basic and above-basic levels of [...] Read more.

Digital skills are increasingly vital for enhancing employability, as they equip individuals to meet the evolving demands of the modern workforce. Therefore, this paper examines the impact of digital skills on employability, focusing on the influence of both basic and above-basic levels of information and data literacy, communication and collaboration, problem-solving, digital content creation, and safety skills, considered key components of digital competence. The research employs regression analysis using secondary data extracted from the Eurostat database. Based on data from 32 European countries, the findings indicate that three proxies for digital skills, communication and collaboration, digital content creation, and safety, significantly and positively influence employability. The contribution of this paper to the existing literature on digital skills and employability is twofold. First, by evaluating the influence of five categories of digital skills across different proficiency levels on employment rates, the study sheds light on which specific digital skills have the most substantial impact on employability in today’s labor market. Second, the findings provide a foundation for formulating recommendations aimed at enhancing the digital capabilities of the labor force. Full article

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16 pages, 469 KiB

Open AccessArticle

How Does Public Policy Drive Urban Energy Transition? Evidence from China

by Jun Li, Shuqi Li and Yifeng Qiu

Economies 2025, 13(7), 195; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070195 - 8 Jul 2025

Abstract

Promoting urban energy transition is essential for achieving environmental sustainability, yet how to effectively guide this process through public policy remains a key research question. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of government policy in facilitating urban energy transition, with a specific [...] Read more.

Promoting urban energy transition is essential for achieving environmental sustainability, yet how to effectively guide this process through public policy remains a key research question. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of government policy in facilitating urban energy transition, with a specific focus on China’s National New Energy Demonstration City Construction (NEDC) Policy. Using a difference-in-differences model with panel data from 274 Chinese cities, the empirical results indicate that the NEDC policy significantly advances urban energy transition, resulting in a notable increase of 0.571 units in the Urban Energy Transition Index and an improvement of 0.0321 units in the Urban Energy Transition Efficiency Index. Mechanism analysis further reveals that the NEDC policy promotes urban energy transition primarily by advancing financial development, strengthening environmental regulations, and encouraging capital-biased technological progress. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the NEDC policy significantly boosts urban energy transition in resource-based cities, whereas it exerts a suppressive effect on urban energy transition in non-resource-based cities. This study offers valuable policy implications for developing countries seeking sustainable urban transformation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Energy Economics and Sustainable Development)

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30 pages, 364 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Optimizing Tax Compliance: Understanding the Link Between Company Tax Administration and Tax Avoidance (A Survey of Public Companies in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand for the 2022–2023 Period)

by Arie Pratama and Kamaruzzaman Muhammad

Economies 2025, 13(7), 194; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070194 - 6 Jul 2025

Abstract

Tax compliance remains a critical issue in corporate taxation research, particularly in understanding the causal link between the administration of corporate tax and tax avoidance. This study investigates the potential simultaneous relationship between the two by analyzing 277 listed firms across four Southeast [...] Read more.

Tax compliance remains a critical issue in corporate taxation research, particularly in understanding the causal link between the administration of corporate tax and tax avoidance. This study investigates the potential simultaneous relationship between the two by analyzing 277 listed firms across four Southeast Asian countries using two-year average data (2022–2023). The administration of corporate tax is measured using eight disclosure-based indicators from the Refinitiv Eikon database, while tax avoidance is proxied by the effective tax rate (ETR). The primary analysis applies multiple regression to assess the effect of tax administration on tax avoidance and logistic regression to evaluate the reverse relationship. To address endogeneity and test for simultaneity, robustness checks using two-stage least squares (2SLS) and instrumental variable techniques are employed. The results confirm a bidirectional relationship: a stronger administration of corporate tax is associated with lower tax avoidance, while tax avoidance behavior also shapes tax administration practices. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening internal tax governance as a foundation for compliance. Given varying levels of tax administration across countries, this study calls for greater international coordination to standardize corporate tax governance practices and reduce avoidance incentives. Full article

25 pages, 786 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Managerial Shareholding and Performance in LBOs: Evidence from the MENA Region

by Abir Attahiri, Maroua Zineelabidine and Mohamed Makhroute

Economies 2025, 13(7), 193; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070193 - 4 Jul 2025

Abstract

This research explores the impact of ownership structure on the financial performance of Leveraged Buyout (LBO) transactions in the MENA region, a key emerging market region. Drawing on agency theory by Jensen & Meckling and the capital structure theory of Modigliani and Miller, [...] Read more.

This research explores the impact of ownership structure on the financial performance of Leveraged Buyout (LBO) transactions in the MENA region, a key emerging market region. Drawing on agency theory by Jensen & Meckling and the capital structure theory of Modigliani and Miller, the study investigates how different shareholder configurations, particularly managerial equity participation, influence LBO outcomes. Based on a sample of 233 transactions conducted between 2000 and 2023, the research adopts a quantitative methodology grounded in a hypothetico-deductive approach. The analysis focuses on the interactions between managerial ownership, leverage, target firm size, and operational performance. The findings support the agency theory premise that managerial ownership aligns interests and enhances performance, showing a positive relationship between managerial equity stakes and financial outcomes. Conversely, the effect of leverage, central to Modigliani and Miller’s propositions, proves more nuanced, reflecting the region’s unique financial constraints and market imperfections. Firm size, meanwhile, shows no direct correlation with performance improvement. These insights underscore the complex mechanisms behind LBO success in the MENA context and offer practical and theoretical implications, particularly regarding governance practices and institutional frameworks. The study also outlines avenues for future research, including a deeper examination of regional governance dynamics. Full article

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19 pages, 2829 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Health Effects of Economic Growth: Evidence from PM_2.5-Attributable Mortality in China

by Cheng Xue, Yiying Chao, Shangwei Xie and Kebiao Yuan

Economies 2025, 13(7), 192; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070192 - 3 Jul 2025

Abstract

Economic growth can bring material prosperity and improvements in public services to a country yet can simultaneously lead to environmental pollution that threatens population health, which has important implications for shaping macro-level policies. Here, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and mortality [...] Read more.

Economic growth can bring material prosperity and improvements in public services to a country yet can simultaneously lead to environmental pollution that threatens population health, which has important implications for shaping macro-level policies. Here, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and mortality attributable to air pollution in China from 2002 to 2021, using data analyzed with Stata 18 software. We identify a counterintuitive U-shaped relationship between the two, with the coefficient of the primary term for economic growth at −1.222 and the quadratic term at −0.053, both statistically significant at the 1% level. The inflection point, with accounting for control variables, is calculated to be 99,708 yuan (CNY) per person. These results withstand different empirical testing. We then perform heterogeneity analyses at the city level and find that disparities in social, economic, and physical geographical conditions lead to an unequal mortality burden that persists. Economic growth may have negative impacts on population health after crossing a certain threshold, although the effects vary across different regions. Our findings reveal that the benefits of economic growth may not “trickle down” to improve population health. Policymakers cannot take economic growth as an intrinsic good that would inevitably lead to better population health. Greater emphasis should be placed on egalitarian welfare systems, investments in environmental improvements, and other life-supporting priorities, as these measures could mitigate the negative health impacts of economic growth and promote a virtuous cycle between the economy and population health. Full article

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23 pages, 762 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling South Africa’s Economic Transformation and Growth: A Prospective and Retrospective Analysis

by Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu and Nyiko Worship Hlongwane

Economies 2025, 13(7), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070191 - 3 Jul 2025

Abstract

The economic downturns in South Africa present a significant threat, with the potential to disrupt the nation’s notable advances in addressing the persistent challenges of high unemployment, widespread poverty and stark inequality. In the absence of substantial and extensive structural transformation, South Africa’s [...] Read more.

The economic downturns in South Africa present a significant threat, with the potential to disrupt the nation’s notable advances in addressing the persistent challenges of high unemployment, widespread poverty and stark inequality. In the absence of substantial and extensive structural transformation, South Africa’s aspirations to achieve its ambitious development goals may remain unattainable. Building on the precedent of a blend of literature review, comprehensive ex post analysis, and applied general equilibrium modelling tailored for ex ante assessments, this paper assesses options and impacts of alternative ambitious developmental interventions. The results indicate that, despite implementing a variety of strategies, there remains a disheartening underperformance in economic indicators. However, ex ante evaluations indicate that with targeted interventions and supportive government policies, the country can achieve economic growth and job creation. Simulation results identify sectors of personal and social service activities, transport, finance, and insurance as having the most formidable potential to significantly reduce unemployment while simultaneously catalysing robust economic growth. These pivotal sectors, nestled within the broader services and industries, are uniquely poised to bolster overall productivity and diminish unemployment, while adeptly absorbing a considerable influx of highly educated and skilled labour. This suggests that South Africa can decisively accelerate its economic progress by embracing a dual-pronged approach: fostering structural shifts towards manufacturing and services, while steadfastly advancing the upskilling of its dynamic workforce. Full article

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19 pages, 350 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Achieving a More Inclusive Financial System: What Does the MENA Region Need? A Sensitivity Analysis for GCC and Non-GCC Countries

by Abdelaziz Hakimi, Hichem Saidi and Lamia Adili

Economies 2025, 13(7), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070190 - 2 Jul 2025

Abstract

Achieving a more inclusive financial system is crucial to unlocking economic opportunities, reducing inequality, and ensuring that no person will be excluded from access and usage of financial and banking services. Even if financial services are widely available in some areas, others, especially [...] Read more.

Achieving a more inclusive financial system is crucial to unlocking economic opportunities, reducing inequality, and ensuring that no person will be excluded from access and usage of financial and banking services. Even if financial services are widely available in some areas, others, especially in developing nations, have low levels of financial inclusion and continue to confront obstacles that restrict economic growth and participation. This study examines the key factors influencing financial inclusion by analyzing 74 banks across 10 MENA countries from 2010 to 2021. It performs the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) technique as an empirical approach. The results indicate that economic growth, education, infrastructure, and institutional quality have a significant impact on improving the level of financial inclusion in the MENA region. The results of the sensitivity analysis reveal that, in either GCC or non-GCC countries, key determinants include education, infrastructure, institutional quality, and GDP growth, leading to a more inclusive financial system. Full article

14 pages, 233 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Tokenomics and Digital Economy in China: Analyzing the Influence of Blockchain Technology Integration on Traditional Business Models

by Fadi Ghosn, Mohamad Zreik, Hala Koleilat Al Dilby, Caroline Dib Kassably Fakhry and Fida Ragheb Hassanein

Economies 2025, 13(7), 189; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070189 - 2 Jul 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of tokenomics and the integration of blockchain technology on China’s digital economy, focusing on how blockchain adoption influences traditional business models. As China becomes a global leader in digital transformation, understanding the role of the blockchain in economic [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impact of tokenomics and the integration of blockchain technology on China’s digital economy, focusing on how blockchain adoption influences traditional business models. As China becomes a global leader in digital transformation, understanding the role of the blockchain in economic modernization is critical. The aim of this research is to quantify the effects of blockchain adoption on key economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment levels, and business innovation. Using panel data analysis and regression models, this study provides empirical evidence on the positive correlation between blockchain integration and improved economic performance. Key results reveal that a 1% increase in blockchain adoption is associated with a 0.3% rise in GDP growth, while tokenization contributes significantly to investment levels and business innovation. These findings emphasize the transformative potential of the blockchain in enhancing economic stability, increasing liquidity, and fostering new business opportunities. In conclusion, this research highlights the critical role of the blockchain and tokenomics in driving economic modernization in China, offering valuable insights for policymakers, business leaders, and investors aiming to leverage digital technologies for sustainable growth. Future research should explore the broader global implications of blockchain adoption and tokenomics in emerging markets. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Development in the Digital Economy Era)

21 pages, 275 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Socioeconomic Empowerment of Women in Rural Peru: A Cross-Sectional Study of Internal and External Determinants in Chepén

by Leidy Graciela Carbajal Castillo, Jennifer Nicole Rivas Alvitres and Marco Agustín Arbulú Ballesteros

Economies 2025, 13(7), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070188 - 30 Jun 2025

Abstract

This study examines the determinant factors of women’s empowerment in Chepén, Peru, during 2024, analyzing how socioeconomic status potentially moderates this relationship. Using a quantitative approach with a non-experimental, cross-sectional design, the research surveyed 367 women aged 22–52 years through digital questionnaires employing [...] Read more.

This study examines the determinant factors of women’s empowerment in Chepén, Peru, during 2024, analyzing how socioeconomic status potentially moderates this relationship. Using a quantitative approach with a non-experimental, cross-sectional design, the research surveyed 367 women aged 22–52 years through digital questionnaires employing validated scales. The results revealed that both internal factors (individual and collective psychological competencies) and external factors (economic and cultural conditions) significantly influence female empowerment (β = 0.57, p = 0.049 and β = 0.87, p = 0.039, respectively). Contrary to our hypothesis, socioeconomic status did not significantly moderate these relationships (internal factors × socioeconomic level: β = 0.02, p = 0.323; external factors × socioeconomic level: β = −0.02, p = 0.584). The models demonstrated strong explanatory power, with internal factors explaining 84.3% and external factors explaining 58.5% of the variance in women’s empowerment. The study found moderate levels of autonomy and decision-making (44.8%) and cultural dimensions (43.3%). While 76.1% of participants had higher education, 41.8% earned below PEN 1500, highlighting a significant education–income gap. These findings suggest that psychological competencies and sociocultural environment enhancement are more critical than initial economic conditions for promoting women’s empowerment across all socioeconomic strata. The study recommends implementing targeted public policies to improve cultural and economic conditions, establish flexible educational programs, and promote dignified employment opportunities that recognize women’s capabilities regardless of socioeconomic background. Full article

20 pages, 327 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Gauging the Impact of Digital Finance on Financial Stability in the Presence of Multiple Unknown Structural Breaks: Evidence from Developing Economies

by Tochukwu Timothy Okoli

Economies 2025, 13(7), 187; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070187 - 28 Jun 2025

Abstract

The implications of digital finance for financial stability has come under serious scrutiny since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Empirical evidence on this nexus are somewhat inconsistent and ambiguous. This study therefore attributes this puzzle to multiple structural breaks [...] Read more.

The implications of digital finance for financial stability has come under serious scrutiny since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Empirical evidence on this nexus are somewhat inconsistent and ambiguous. This study therefore attributes this puzzle to multiple structural breaks (MSBs) which were long neglected by previous studies. Consequently, this study aims to identify possible MSBs in the digital finance–stability nexus and examine if its impact is consistent/weakened in the presence of MSBs in a sample of 41 developing African economies for the 2004–2023 periods. Results from the PCA index generation report that instability is more susceptible to bank crisis/Z-score. Again, the panel extension of BP98 MSBs detection identified three breaks with their confidence intervals overlapping the periods of the 2006–2011 GFC/subprime mortgage crises, the 2012–2016 Br-exit referendum and the 2017–2021 COVID 19 pandemic/Ukraine war. The quantile regression methodology also shows that these breaks weaken the impact of digital finance (i.e., mobile banking and internet banking) on financial stability, particularly for economies at lower quantiles of financial stability but with marginal effects for economies at higher quantiles. The study concludes that digital finance can stabilize the financial system of developing economies when shocks from structural breaks are controlled. Therefore, the study contributes to knowledge by developing a new econometric model for BP98 panel extension of MSBs detection, calibrating an index for financial stability and detecting valid break dates for three major breaks. Structural and financial development through policy coordination to forestall the effects of structural breaks were recommended. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

23 pages, 1650 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The EU Public Debt Synchronization: A Complex Networks Approach

by Fotios Gkatzoglou, Emmanouil Sofianos and Amélie Barbier-Gauchard

Economies 2025, 13(7), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070186 - 27 Jun 2025

Abstract

This study examines the evolution of public debt among the 27 EU member states using Graph Theory tools; the Threshold Weighted–Minimum Dominating Set (TW–MDS) and the k-core decomposition method, alongside a standard network quantitative metric, the density. By separating the data into three [...] Read more.

This study examines the evolution of public debt among the 27 EU member states using Graph Theory tools; the Threshold Weighted–Minimum Dominating Set (TW–MDS) and the k-core decomposition method, alongside a standard network quantitative metric, the density. By separating the data into three distinct periods, pre-crisis (2000–2007), European sovereign debt crisis (2008–2015), and post-crisis (2016–2023), we examine the potential synchronization of the debt ratios among EU countries through cross-correlations of the public debts. The findings reveal that public debt correlation was at its highest level during the 2008–2015 period, reflecting the universal impact of the crisis and the subsequent synchronized fiscal and monetary policy measures taken within EU. A significantly lower network density is observed in both the pre- and post-crisis periods. These results contribute to the overall debate on fiscal stability and policy coordination by showing how EU countries tend to align their fiscal behaviors during periods of crisis while behaving more independently during stable times. In addition, we yield a deeper insight into how economic shocks reorganize public debt interconnections within the crisis period. Finally, this analysis highlights to what extent European economic integration strengthens connections between the fiscal positions (through public debt) of the European Union member countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Complex Networks on Macroeconomics and Finance: Models, Methods, Applications)

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68 pages, 3234 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia

by Emna Trabelsi

Economies 2025, 13(7), 185; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070185 - 27 Jun 2025

Abstract

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). [...] Read more.

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). We show that global geopolitical risk has both detriments and benefits sides—it is a threat and an opportunity for monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Interacted local projections (LPs) reveal short–medium-term volatility or dampening effects, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty might weaken the immediate impact of monetary policy on output and prices. In uncertain environments (e.g., high geopolitical risk), economic agents—households and businesses—may adopt a wait-and-see approach. They delay consumption and investment decisions, which could initially mute the impact of monetary policy. Agents may delay their responses until they gain more information about geopolitical developments. Once clarity emerges, they may adjust their behavior, aligning with the long-run effects observed in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, we identify an exacerbating investor sentiment following tightening monetary policy, during global and local geopolitical episodes. The impact is even more pronounced under conditions of high domestic weakness. Evidence is extracted through a novel composite index that we construct using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our results have implications for the Central Bank’s monetary policy conduct and communication practices. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Monetary Policy and Central Banking: Challenges in the Current Environment)

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22 pages, 1689 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Optimal Allocation of Resources in an Open Economic System with Cobb–Douglas Production and Trade Balances

by Kamshat Tussupova and Zainelkhriet Murzabekov

Economies 2025, 13(7), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070184 - 26 Jun 2025

Abstract

This paper develops a nonlinear optimization model for the optimal allocation of labor and investment resources in a three-sector open economy. The model is based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and incorporates sectoral interdependencies, capital depreciation, trade balances, and import quotas. The resource [...] Read more.

This paper develops a nonlinear optimization model for the optimal allocation of labor and investment resources in a three-sector open economy. The model is based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and incorporates sectoral interdependencies, capital depreciation, trade balances, and import quotas. The resource allocation problem is formalized as a constrained optimization task, solved analytically using the Lagrange multipliers method and numerically via the golden section search. The model is calibrated using real statistical data from Kazakhstan (2010–2022), an open resource-exporting economy. The results identify structural thresholds that define balanced growth conditions and resource-efficient configurations. Compared to existing studies, the proposed model uniquely integrates external trade constraints with analytical solvability, filling a methodological gap in the literature. The developed framework is suitable for medium-term planning under stable external conditions and enables sensitivity analysis under alternative scenarios such as sanctions or price shocks. Limitations include the assumption of stationarity and the absence of dynamic or stochastic features. Future research will focus on dynamic extensions and applications in other open economies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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18 pages, 257 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Economic Welfare of Refugees and Nationals in Kenya: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis

by Suleiman Hassan Maalim

Economies 2025, 13(7), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070183 - 25 Jun 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the economic welfare of refugees and host communities in Kenya, utilizing bi-monthly panel data collected from May 2020 to May 2022. The analysis employs a fixed effect model, which effectively captures the nuances of welfare differences between urban and camp [...] Read more.

This study investigates the economic welfare of refugees and host communities in Kenya, utilizing bi-monthly panel data collected from May 2020 to May 2022. The analysis employs a fixed effect model, which effectively captures the nuances of welfare differences between urban and camp refugees. The key findings reveal that income and economic participation are critical determinants of welfare, with urban refugees exhibiting greater sensitivity to income fluctuations compared to their camp counterparts. Larger household sizes negatively impact welfare, while education levels and gender dynamics play pivotal roles. This study emphasizes the need for tailored interventions for economic empowerment, particularly for women-headed households, and highlights the importance of partnerships between NGOs and local governments. Overall, this research enhances the understanding of refugee welfare in Kenya and provides actionable policy suggestions aimed at promoting equity and integration. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

17 pages, 810 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analyzing Vietnam’s Economic Transformation from 2007 to 2023: Insights from Structural Decomposition of Input–Output Tables

by Nguyen Thi Bich Ngoc, Ichihashi Masaru and Bui Xuan Hong

Economies 2025, 13(7), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13070182 - 24 Jun 2025

Abstract

The present study investigates Vietnam’s economic structural transformation from 2007 to 2023, identifying key sectors contributing to output growth and poverty reduction. The study is situated within the broader context of industrialization and sustainable development in emerging economies. It employs structural decomposition analysis [...] Read more.

The present study investigates Vietnam’s economic structural transformation from 2007 to 2023, identifying key sectors contributing to output growth and poverty reduction. The study is situated within the broader context of industrialization and sustainable development in emerging economies. It employs structural decomposition analysis using Vietnam’s national input–output tables for the years 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The analysis decomposes changes in total output into technical effects and final demand effects, allowing for an evaluation of the relative contributions of sectoral productivity and demand side factors. The findings of the study indicate that the manufacturing and services sectors have been the primary drivers of economic growth, with the electrical and optical equipment, food, beverages and tobacco, and basic metals sectors demonstrating particularly strong performance. The factor of final demand, which is derived from consumption, investment, and exports, has played a dominant role in driving output. Notably, export-led manufacturing has experienced significant benefits due to Vietnam’s engagement in free trade agreements. It is noteworthy that the agriculture sector demonstrated a period of recovery between 2019 and 2023, driven by an increase in final demand. This study underscores the pivotal function of sectoral adaptability, trade openness, and strategic policy in maintaining inclusive economic development. It is evident that the phenomenon under scrutiny is not only indicative of vulnerabilities and opportunities but also shaped by global shocks, for example, the coronavirus pandemic. Full article

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