The escalation of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries presents severe safety hazards that necessitate advanced monitoring protocols to ensure early warning of potential failures. Carbon dioxide (CO
2) is released during preliminary decomposition well before catastrophic failure occurs, thereby providing a strategic advantage for early-stage warning. Consequently, identifying materials with high-selective CO
2 recognition is an essential prerequisite for developing reliable sensing platforms. This study integrates Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulations with Random Forest (RF) models to systematically screen 1470 MOFs from the CoRE-MOF 2019 database. The screening process evaluates selective CO
2 recognition under multicomponent competitive adsorption conditions involving CO
2, C
2H
4, and O
2. The performance evaluation is based on working capacity, selectivity, and the trade-off between working capacity and selectivity (
TSN). The RF model achieves high predictive accuracy, with tested
R2 exceeding 0.92 on the test samples. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) interpretability analysis identifies
Q0st(CO
2),
Q0st(C
2H
4),
WEPA,
KH(C
2H
4), and
ETR as key performance drivers. The results indicate that CO
2 selectivity is constrained by the binding strength of competing C
2H
4. Optimal materials tend to have hard Lewis acid centers and polar inorganic clusters to minimize non-specific π-interactions with interfering species. Top-performing MOFs require balanced structural features, concentrating in moderate surface areas (965–1975 m
2/g), narrow pore windows (
PLD ≈ 4–7 Å,
LCD ≈ 5.5–9.6 Å), high void fractions above 0.6, and low densities below 1.3 g/cm
3. AJOTEY emerges as the optimal candidate with a
TSN of 6.43 mol/kg, combining substantial working capacity (4.57 mol/kg) with strong selectivity (25.52). These results will accelerate the discovery of sensing materials and provide a practical pathway for MOF-based CO
2 sensor development to enhance lithium-ion battery safety.
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