Leaf water potential (
leaf) is a key indicator of plant water status, but its measurement is labor-intensive and limited in spatial coverage. While remote sensing has emerged as a useful tool for estimating vegetation water status,
leaf remains unexplored, particularly in mixed forests. Here, we use spectral indices derived from unmanned aerial vehicle-based hyperspectral imaging and machine learning algorithms to assess
leaf in a mixed, multi-species Mediterranean forest comprised of five key woody species:
Pinus halepensis,
Quercus calliprinos,
Cupressus sempervirens,
Ceratonia siliqua, and
Pistacia lentiscus. Hyperspectral images (400–1000 nm) were acquired monthly over one year, concurrent with
leaf measurements in each species. Twelve spectral indices and thousands of normalized difference spectral index (NDSI) combinations were evaluated. Three machine learning algorithms—random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and support vector machine (SVM)—were used to model
leaf. We compared the machine learning model results with linear models based on spectral indices and the NDSI. SVM, using species information as a feature, performed the best with a relatively good
leaf assessment (R
2 = 0.53; RMSE = 0.67 MPa; rRMSE = 28%), especially considering the small seasonal variance in
leaf (
= 0.8 MPa). Predictions were best for
Cupressus sempervirens (R
2 = 0.80) and
Pistacia lentiscus (R
2 = 0.49), which had the largest
leaf variances (
> 1 MPa). Aggregating data at the plot scale in a ‘general’ model markedly improved the
leaf model (R
2 = 0.79, RMSE = 0.31 MPa; rRMSE = 13%), providing a promising tool for monitoring mixed forest
leaf. The fact that a non-species-specific, ‘general’ model could predict
leaf implies that such a model can also be used with coarser resolution satellite data. Our study demonstrates the potential of combining hyperspectral imagery with machine learning for non-invasive
leaf estimation in mixed forests while highlighting challenges in capturing interspecies variability.
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