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Climate, Volume 14, Issue 7

2026 July - 20 articles

Cover Story: Why do some preseason Atlantic hurricane forecasts outperform others? Using 20 years of real-time forecasts from NCSU, CSU, TSR, and NOAA, this study separates the roles of forecast timing, model capability, and environmental information. NCSU’s April forecasts outperformed other April outlooks and performed comparably to forecasts issued later, showing that stronger model design can partly offset the advantage of additional late-spring information. Tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature emerged as the dominant preseason predictor, while ENSO added value later as uncertainty declined beyond the spring predictability barrier. Selective forecast combinations improved accuracy, but simply averaging more models did not. The results provide a practical framework for earlier, more-reliable seasonal hurricane outlooks. View this paper
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Articles (20)

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,065 Views
29 Pages

Kilometre-Scale Climate Projections for Nicosia: Dynamical and Machine Learning Downscaling to Detect Future Intra-Urban Heat Hotspots

  • Konstantina Koutroumanou-Kontosi,
  • Panos Hadjinicolaou,
  • Constantinos Cartalis and
  • Jos Lelieveld

21 July 2026

This study investigates the potential of machine learning-based statistical downscaling to generate high-resolution (1 km) urban climate projections over Nicosia, Cyprus. A dynamical and a hybrid dynamical–statistical framework was applied to C...

(This article belongs to the Topic Urban Climate Improvement and Spatial Pattern Optimization Under a Multi-Objective Orientation)
  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
958 Views
34 Pages

19 July 2026

Dense tropical cities face increasing outdoor heat stress and require reliable microclimate modelling tools to support climate-responsive urban planning. However, the performance of these models remains insufficiently documented under tropical condit...

  • Article
  • Open Access
563 Views
27 Pages

17 July 2026

This study investigates historical and future climate variability in the Canagagigue Creek Watershed, located in southern Ontario, through statistical downscaling and trend assessment of key climate variables. Future climate projections from the Cana...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
2,732 Views
27 Pages

15 July 2026

This study applies the Heat Resilience Framework (HRF) as a methodological approach to assess and compare heat resilience across Mumbai, Thane, and Nagpur. The HRF integrates multiple dimensions, namely Physical, Social, Economic, Institutional, and...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessment and Implementation of Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies)
  • Review
  • Open Access
3 Citations
1,864 Views
26 Pages

15 July 2026

Climate change poses significant environmental and socio-economic challenges for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including Timor-Leste. This systematic review aimed to synthesise evidence on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation...

  • Article
  • Open Access
742 Views
25 Pages

Soil CO2 Efflux in Scots Pine Forests in Central Siberia After Wildfire and Logging: Diurnal and Seasonal Patterns

  • Anastasia V. Makhnykina,
  • Elena A. Kukavskaya,
  • Alexey V. Panov,
  • Anatoly S. Prokushkin,
  • Eugene A. Vaganov and
  • Pavel Ya. Groisman

13 July 2026

Boreal forests are sensitive to external factors, and even small variations can completely alter their natural carbon (C) balance. Today, we face not only the consequences of climate change but also intensified human activity. In most cases, forest d...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
1,695 Views
22 Pages

10 July 2026

Reliable precipitation forecasts are critical for hydrological modelling and flood early warning in West African river basins, where rainfall is dominated by highly variable monsoon-driven convection. This study evaluates and improves the precipitati...

(This article belongs to the Topic Numerical Models and Weather Extreme Events (2nd Edition))
  • Article
  • Open Access
1,135 Views
25 Pages

Linking Rainfall Intensity Variability to Local Adaptation Responses and Traditional Knowledge: A Mixed-Methods Case Study for Food Security Resilience in Boja, Indonesia

  • Seno Basuki,
  • Wahyudi Hariyanto,
  • Forita Dyah Arianti,
  • Renie Oelviani,
  • Samijan Samijan,
  • Joko Triastono,
  • Joko Pramono,
  • Meinarti Norma Setiapermas,
  • Arnis Rachmadhani and
  • Yulis Hindarwati
  • + 10 authors

7 July 2026

The rainfed paddy farming system faces profound vulnerabilities due to daily climate non-stationarity. This mixed-methods study in Central Java analyses daily climate signals, total rice production, and household adaptation over 25 years (2001–...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Food Sustainability: A Critical Nexus)
  • Article
  • Open Access
910 Views
24 Pages

Assessing the Skill of CMIP6 Annual-to-Decadal Climate Forecasts at the Catchment Scale in Northeast Brazil

  • Gabriela Pinheiro Feitosa,
  • Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins,
  • Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior and
  • Iago Alvarenga e Silva

7 July 2026

Developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies depends on climate predictions capable of representing future conditions across multiple temporal scales. Decadal climate predictions bridge seasonal forecasting and long-term climate projecti...

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)
  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
894 Views
32 Pages

Utilizing Different Drought Indices to Monitor Temporal Drought Risks in Lisbon, Portugal in the Context of Climate Change Effects

  • Martina Zeleňáková,
  • Hany F. Abd-Elhamid,
  • Tatiana Soľáková,
  • Maria Manuela Portela,
  • Luis Angel Espinosa,
  • Jacek Barańczuk and
  • Katarzyna Barańczuk

7 July 2026

Drought is becoming more frequent and severe in many regions, particularly in Mediterranean climates, where water demand is increased by warming and changes in precipitation regimes. A long-term assessment of meteorological drought at the Lisbon clim...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Climate and Water Resources Management and Drought Assessment)
  • Article
  • Open Access
1,720 Views
20 Pages

7 July 2026

While global climate change is fundamentally reshaping thermal regimes, capturing these shifts in topographically diverse regions remains a significant hurdle for standard gridded datasets. This study provides a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,526 Views
22 Pages

6 July 2026

Buildings account for a significant share of final energy consumption, with space heating representing one of the major energy uses in residential buildings. Therefore, improving the thermal performance of building envelopes is an important strategy...

(This article belongs to the Topic Novel Tools and Methods for Climate-Adaptive Urban Development)
  • Article
  • Open Access
1,147 Views
34 Pages

Multi-Model Approaches for One-Month-Ahead Agricultural Drought Forecasting in a Data-Scarce Andean Basin: Insights from the Northern Region of the Atacama Desert

  • Ana Cruz-Baltuano,
  • Pablo Franco-León,
  • Nahuel Molero-Yañez,
  • David Alvarado-Kong,
  • Edgar Taya-Acosta and
  • Edwin Pino-Vargas

6 July 2026

Agricultural drought represents a critical threat to water-dependent economies in arid Andean regions; however, forecasting tools tailored to data-scarce, high-altitude basins remain limited. This study developed and evaluated a multi-model spatiotem...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,496 Views
19 Pages

Association of Daily Temperature on Non-Accidental and Specific-Cause Mortality in Northern Malaysia: A Time-Series Study

  • Hadita Sapari,
  • Rohaida Ismail,
  • Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyudin,
  • Mohamad Ikhsan Selamat and
  • Mohamad Rodi Isa

4 July 2026

Extreme temperatures are an emerging public health concern due to their significant impact on humans, yet the evidence remains limited in tropical countries. This study examined the non-linear relationship between ambient temperature and non-accident...

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)
  • Article
  • Open Access
894 Views
71 Pages

Using Machine Learning Clustering to Build an ESG-Based Taxonomy of Heat Vulnerability

  • Angelo Leogrande,
  • Carlo Drago,
  • Massimo Arnone and
  • Alberto Costantiello

3 July 2026

HI35, defined as the mean annual number of days on which apparent temperature exceeds 35 °C, is introduced in this paper as a country-level heat exposure metric. Unlike vulnerability indicators, HI35 is treated as an exogenous climatic exposure v...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Development Pathways and Climate Actions)
  • Article
  • Open Access
1,174 Views
31 Pages

26 June 2026

This study evaluates the 20-year operational performance (2006–2025) of a preseason prediction system for Atlantic hurricane activity developed at North Carolina State University (NCSU) and compares it with forecasts from Colorado State Univers...

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)
  • Article
  • Open Access
772 Views
17 Pages

A Spatiotemporal Interpolation Method for Regional Precipitation Data Based on a Spatiotemporal Decay Graph Model

  • Li Liu,
  • Chuhan Lu,
  • Julong Huang,
  • Feng Zhang,
  • Guangyu Qu,
  • Lu Guo and
  • Runze Luo

24 June 2026

Traditional meteorological data spatial interpolation methods often rely on linear or static assumptions, which are inadequate for complex terrain and fail to exploit continuous spatiotemporal variation information. This paper proposes a Spatiotempor...

  • Article
  • Open Access
922 Views
25 Pages

24 June 2026

Urban heat stress is intensifying under climate change, particularly in outdoor public spaces where conventional mechanical cooling is impractical. This study develops a climate-driven, system-level numerical framework to evaluate the pre-deployment...

(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Urban Futures in a Changing Climate)
  • Article
  • Open Access
1,097 Views
20 Pages

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves and Extreme Rainfall in Northern South America

  • Johanna Yepes,
  • Juliana Valencia and
  • Alejandro Builes-Jaramillo

24 June 2026

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) play a key role in synoptic variability and can trigger extreme hydrometeorological events. This study characterizes the influence of CCKWs on seasonal precipitation patterns and extreme precipitation events...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,310 Views
20 Pages

Influence of Mixing Layer Height on Air Pollution in the City of Zagreb, Croatia

  • Ivan Bešlić,
  • Suzana Sopčić,
  • Zdravka Sever Štrukil and
  • Domagoj Mihajlović

23 June 2026

The mixing layer height (MLH) is a key meteorological parameter governing the dispersion and accumulation of air pollutants in the atmospheric boundary layer. Over the Zagreb urban area, low MLH values are associated with stable atmospheric condition...

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Climate - ISSN 2225-1154