Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition

Journal Name	Impact Factor	CiteScore	Launched Year	First Decision (median)	APC
Agronomy agronomy	4.1	7.6	2011	17.7 Days	CHF 2600	Submit
Applied Sciences applsci	2.9	6.1	2011	15 Days	CHF 2400	Submit
Climate climate	4.0	6.5	2013	20.5 Days	CHF 1800	Submit
Forests forests	3.1	5.4	2010	17.3 Days	CHF 2600	Submit
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ijgi	3.2	6.7	2012	34.9 Days	CHF 1900	Submit
Plants plants	4.7	8.5	2012	14.8 Days	CHF 2700	Submit
Sustainability sustainability	4.1	8.9	2009	16.9 Days	CHF 2400	Submit

22 pages, 16612 KB

Open AccessArticle

Paleoenvironmental Changes and Human Adaptation: A Multidisciplinary Investigation of Site Abandonment at Qusayrat Aad Archaeological Site, Central Saudi Arabia

by Mohamed Metwaly and Abdullah Alshami

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(7), 334; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15070334 - 21 Jul 2026

Viewed by 309

Abstract

This study examines the critical relationship between geoenvironmental changes and human occupation patterns in the central Arabian Peninsula, focusing on the Al-Aflaj region. By integrating geospatial modeling with preliminary archeological excavation results that indicated the site is dated to 5th century BCE to [...] Read more.

This study examines the critical relationship between geoenvironmental changes and human occupation patterns in the central Arabian Peninsula, focusing on the Al-Aflaj region. By integrating geospatial modeling with preliminary archeological excavation results that indicated the site is dated to 5th century BCE to 6th century CE, we evaluate how climatic stressors dictated human adaptation and eventual site abandonment. Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations, particularly the Early Holocene pluvial phases, initially created favorable conditions for settlement through sustained freshwater resources. Subsequent aridification triggered significant migration and settlement contraction, demonstrating a high degree of human resilience. The site of Qusayrat Aad serves as a compelling case study of sophisticated adaptation, evidenced by mudbrick architecture and advanced irrigation systems. Integration of geological, topographic, and paleoclimatic factors indicates that the porous sedimentary layers of the Heet and Al Biyadh Formations were essential for groundwater recharge and spring formation. The geospatial analysis reveals that the settlement was strategically localized on a stable surface with a mean slope of 1.51°. Furthermore, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) identifies the site as a significant hydrological function, with a mean value of 8.79 (reaching a 90th percentile of 12.37), which is markedly higher than the regional average of 7.96. These quantitative findings establish a causal necessity for the site’s advanced subsurface canal systems as an engineered response to minimize evaporative losses in high-potential moisture zones. Ultimately, the correlation between the archeological record and climatic proxies suggests that the intensification of late Holocene aridification depleted these specific water resources beyond adaptive capacity, serving as the primary driver for the site’s abandonment and the migration of populations toward the eastern and southern parts of the Peninsula. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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19 pages, 4092 KB

Open AccessArticle

Association of Daily Temperature on Non-Accidental and Specific-Cause Mortality in Northern Malaysia: A Time-Series Study

by Hadita Sapari, Rohaida Ismail, Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyudin, Mohamad Ikhsan Selamat and Mohamad Rodi Isa

Climate 2026, 14(7), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14070139 - 4 Jul 2026

Viewed by 795

Abstract

Extreme temperatures are an emerging public health concern due to their significant impact on humans, yet the evidence remains limited in tropical countries. This study examined the non-linear relationship between ambient temperature and non-accidental and cause-specific mortality in two northern parts of Peninsular [...] Read more.

Extreme temperatures are an emerging public health concern due to their significant impact on humans, yet the evidence remains limited in tropical countries. This study examined the non-linear relationship between ambient temperature and non-accidental and cause-specific mortality in two northern parts of Peninsular Malaysia, from 2011 to 2019. Daily mortality and meteorological data were analyzed using a quasi-Poisson Generalized Linear Model with a Distributed Lag-Non-Linear model to estimate the relationship between temperature and mortality. A U-shaped and J-shaped relationship was observed for the cumulative effects of 21-day lag periods for Kedah and Penang, respectively. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) at 27.4 °C in Kedah and 28.2 °C in Penang was observed. Extremely high temperatures were associated with an increased non-accidental mortality, with a 16% increase at cumulative lag days 0–3 in Kedah and a 21% increase at cumulative lag days 0–7 in Penang. Vulnerable groups included individuals with respiratory diseases, the elderly, both genders and those residing in both urban and rural areas. These findings highlight the acute impact of heat on mortality in Malaysia and underscore the need for targeted public health interventions. Strengthening heat-health warning systems, improving healthcare preparedness, and prioritizing vulnerable populations are essential to mitigate the health impacts of rising temperatures in tropical regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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20 pages, 2339 KB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Projected Range Expansion of the Red Palm Weevil (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus) Across the Arabian Peninsula Under Future Climate Scenarios

by Hathal M. Al Dhafer, Amr Mohamed, Ioannis Eleftherianos and Mahmoud S. Abdel-Dayem

Agronomy 2026, 16(13), 1286; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy16131286 - 3 Jul 2026

Viewed by 538

Abstract

The red palm weevil, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier, 1791), is among the most destructive pests of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) globally, posing a severe and escalating threat to agricultural productivity across the Arabian Peninsula. Despite its well-documented economic impact, the potential influence [...] Read more.

The red palm weevil, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier, 1791), is among the most destructive pests of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) globally, posing a severe and escalating threat to agricultural productivity across the Arabian Peninsula. Despite its well-documented economic impact, the potential influence of climate change on its future distributional dynamics within this region remains poorly quantified. This study employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution modelling to assess current and projected habitat suitability for R. ferrugineus across the Arabian Peninsula (~3.2 million km²) under two contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the mid-century (2050) and late-century (2070). The model was calibrated using 52 spatially thinned occurrence records and six non-collinear environmental predictors selected following Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) analysis, with sampling bias corrected through a kernel density-based background weighting approach. Model performance was robust, with mean training and test AUC values of 0.921 ± 0.023 and 0.840 ± 0.052, respectively, and a mean TSS of 0.583 ± 0.046. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19) and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) emerged as the most influential predictors of habitat suitability, followed by elevation. Currently, approximately 727,589.8 km² (26.11%) of the peninsula is classified as suitable habitat, concentrated along the eastern Arabian Gulf coastline and the western Red Sea plain. Under SSP1-2.6, suitable habitat is projected to expand by 16.34% and 31.60% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansions are considerably more pronounced, reaching 34.11% by 2050 and 60.15% by 2070, with total suitable area approaching 1,158,474.8 km² (41.58%) by late-century. Habitat contraction was negligible across all scenarios, indicating a unidirectional range expansion dynamic. These findings highlight the substantial threat posed by climate-driven habitat expansion of R. ferrugineus and provide spatially explicit projections to inform proactive biosecurity planning and pest management strategies for date palm cultivation across the Arabian Peninsula. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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15 pages, 28611 KB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptation, Resilience, and Threat in Peru

by Vicenta Irene Tafur Anzualdo

Sustainability 2026, 18(13), 6557; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136557 - 28 Jun 2026

Viewed by 382

Abstract

Climate change represents one of the most critical global challenges, generating environmental, social, and economic impacts that disproportionately affect developing countries such as Peru. This study aims to analyze climate change vulnerability and resilience in Peru during the period 2005–2023, integrating climate data, [...] Read more.

Climate change represents one of the most critical global challenges, generating environmental, social, and economic impacts that disproportionately affect developing countries such as Peru. This study aims to analyze climate change vulnerability and resilience in Peru during the period 2005–2023, integrating climate data, evidence of glacial retreat, and the assessment of biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining statistical analysis of temperature and precipitation trends based on official data from SENAMHI and INEI, with a qualitative assessment of ecosystem dynamics and social vulnerability. The results show a sustained increase in temperature, with an average rate of 0.18 °C per decade, along with irregular precipitation patterns and significant regional differences. In addition, a loss of 1.9 million hectares of Amazon forest was identified, alongside high levels of socioeconomic vulnerability in Andean and Amazon regions, where poverty, agricultural dependence, and limited access to services reduce adaptive capacity. The findings confirm that climate vulnerability in Peru is multidimensional, resulting from the interaction between environmental changes and structural social inequalities. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and Community-based Adaptation (CBA) emerge as effective strategies to strengthen territorial resilience, although their implementation requires improved governance, long-term financing, and integration of local knowledge. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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28 pages, 7627 KB

Open AccessArticle

Identification of the Non-Stationarity of Meteorological Drought in the Yellow River Basin and Assessment of the Applicability of the GAMLSS Model

by Li’e Liang, Liulong Hu, Xiaohan Wang, Yonghua Zhu, Yan Chao, Yong Wang and Ziyi Liu

Sustainability 2026, 18(13), 6383; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18136383 - 23 Jun 2026

Viewed by 299

Abstract

Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as an example, this study explores the non-stationary drought evolution features in large river basins under climate change. This study utilized precipitation and multiple climate factor data to establish the non-stationary standardized precipitation index (NSPI) through the [...] Read more.

Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as an example, this study explores the non-stationary drought evolution features in large river basins under climate change. This study utilized precipitation and multiple climate factor data to establish the non-stationary standardized precipitation index (NSPI) through the GAMLSS model. Combined with the run theory, Copula function and a cascaded RF-LSTM machine learning model, the drought characteristics and retrospective predictive patterns were systematically assessed. The results show that: (1) The Arctic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation and the North Pacific Index are the primary climate drivers of non-stationary precipitation variation in the YRB, with the former three being selected most frequently and NPI additionally influencing April–June and September, and their effects are both different and lagging. Compared with the traditional SPI, the NSPI assigned higher drought grades and greater severity to typical drought years (e.g., the 1974 event was rated D3 with a severity of 17.935 by NSPI versus D2 with 11.733 by SPI), and thus better captured non-stationary drought evolution. (2) The duration of droughts exhibited a decreasing trend that was not statistically significant (p > 0.05), whereas drought intensity and severity decreased significantly (p < 0.05); the peak severity showed a significant upward trend (p = 0.0078). Spatially, the northwest of the Loess Plateau was a compound core area with high severity, high frequency and long duration of droughts, while the upper reaches were mainly characterized by low severity, short duration and sudden droughts. (3) The drought risk in the YRB shows a higher frequency in the lower reaches and a lower frequency in the upper reaches. The middle and lower reaches were high-risk areas, with shorter AND-type joint exceedance return periods for moderate drought (2.46–5.83 years) and severe drought (3.77–9.15 years). The upper reaches were low-risk areas, with longer return periods reaching up to 5.83 years for moderate drought and 9.15 years for severe drought. The study shows that the NSPI, considering the driving of multiple climate factors, can more effectively identify and assess non-stationary drought risks, providing a scientific basis for drought prevention and control in river basins. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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28 pages, 6010 KB

Open AccessReview

Agroforestry Systems as Integrated Solutions for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

by Ante Bubalo, Irena Jug, Helena Žalac, Vladimir Ivezić, Goran Herman, Irena Ištoka Otković, Mirna Habuda-Stanić and Brigita Popović

Climate 2026, 14(6), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14060130 - 20 Jun 2026

Viewed by 641

Abstract

Extreme weather conditions and greenhouse gas emissions cause increased pressure on modern agriculture. To ensure long-term resilience, agricultural production requires sustainable and integrated production systems. Agroforestry offers an effective approach by increasing soil organic carbon, improving carbon sequestration, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. [...] Read more.

Extreme weather conditions and greenhouse gas emissions cause increased pressure on modern agriculture. To ensure long-term resilience, agricultural production requires sustainable and integrated production systems. Agroforestry offers an effective approach by increasing soil organic carbon, improving carbon sequestration, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. When combined with other sustainable practices, these systems can further strengthen the resilience and sustainability of agriculture. However, despite these advantages, agroforestry systems are not without challenges, as they require higher initial investments, greater knowledge and labor input, and longer periods to achieve economic efficiency. This paper presents data on the effects of agroforestry systems on different aspects of agricultural production, highlighting their opportunities and limitations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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25 pages, 1658 KB

Open AccessArticle

Determinants of Agrarian Technology Adoption for Climate Change Adaptation in Semi-Arid Region of Chicualacuala, Mozambique

by Cléusia Cardina, Arsénio Jorge, Gerivásia Mosse, Luís Artur, Jaime Macuácua, Délcio Munissa and Almeida A. Sitoe

Sustainability 2026, 18(11), 5690; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18115690 - 4 Jun 2026

Viewed by 480

Abstract

Adaptation to climate change is crucial for the resilience of rural communities, especially in semi-arid regions like Chicualacuala district, Mozambique. This study assesses the factors influencing the adoption of climate change adaptation technologies in the semi-arid region of Chicualacuala, Mozambique. Data collection involved [...] Read more.

Adaptation to climate change is crucial for the resilience of rural communities, especially in semi-arid regions like Chicualacuala district, Mozambique. This study assesses the factors influencing the adoption of climate change adaptation technologies in the semi-arid region of Chicualacuala, Mozambique. Data collection involved direct observation, semi-structured interviews with key informants, and questionnaires administered to 191 households selected by simple random sampling. Descriptive statistics and a logistic regression model were used for analysis. The findings indicate that the agriculture sector is the primary beneficiary of the implemented adaptation technologies, with impacts perceived as predominantly positive. Logistic regression analysis revealed that factors such as cultivated land size, full-time engagement in farming, household income, and membership in producer groups significantly influence the adoption of agricultural technologies. Two key factors driving this uptake are the performance of extension services and whether the household head is employed. This suggests that technology adoption could be further strengthened if government policies expand and diversify the educational content of extension services, with a stronger focus on climate change adaptation practices. Such improvements are particularly important in sectors where perceived climate impacts remain limited, as better information may increase awareness and adoption. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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31 pages, 5820 KB

Open AccessArticle

Identifying Climate and Anthropogenic Risks Along the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal Using GIS-Based Spatiotemporal Analysis

by Junyi Shi, Lijun Yu, Ze Liu, Hui Wang and Yueping Nie

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(6), 230; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15060230 - 22 May 2026

Viewed by 729

Abstract

Linear heritage corridors are increasingly exposed to spatially heterogeneous pressures from climate change and human activities, yet integrated geospatial frameworks for corridor-scale risk identification remain limited. Taking the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal as a representative linear World Heritage corridor, this study developed a GIS-based [...] Read more.

Linear heritage corridors are increasingly exposed to spatially heterogeneous pressures from climate change and human activities, yet integrated geospatial frameworks for corridor-scale risk identification remain limited. Taking the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal as a representative linear World Heritage corridor, this study developed a GIS-based spatiotemporal assessment framework to quantify natural risk, anthropogenic pressure, and their coupled patterns during 1995–2024. Approximately 350 canal segments were constructed as comparable assessment units and linked with 49 heritage sites and 18 World Heritage canal sections through a multi-scale spatial framework integrating canal sections, buffer zones, and heritage sites. Natural risk was characterized using extreme temperature, precipitation, and drought indices, while anthropogenic pressure was represented by nighttime lights, population density, impervious surface, and road density. The results reveal a clear north–south gradient in integrated natural risk, with higher values concentrated in the southern canal sections. Among the three natural-risk modules, temperature, precipitation, and drought contributed weights of 0.594, 0.242, and 0.164, respectively, indicating the dominant role of heat-related processes. The first two principal components of anthropogenic pressure explained 80.8% of the total variance. Four dominant coupling types were identified, among which the dual high-pressure type was concentrated mainly in the southern canal and marked the most critical areas of compound risk. This study provides a geospatial approach for hotspot detection and spatial decision support for the conservation of large linear heritage systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 2557 KB

Open AccessArticle

AI-Driven Social Media Analytics for Assessing Climate Change Perceptions and Supporting Adaptation and Sustainability Policies

by Mehmet Kayakuş, Onder Kabas and Georgiana Moiceanu

Sustainability 2026, 18(10), 4859; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18104859 - 13 May 2026

Viewed by 435

Abstract

This study examines public perceptions and discourse on climate change using artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of social media data, with implications for climate adaptation and sustainability policy. A dataset of 29,576 posts from the X platform (December 2025) was analyzed through an integrated [...] Read more.

This study examines public perceptions and discourse on climate change using artificial intelligence (AI)-based analysis of social media data, with implications for climate adaptation and sustainability policy. A dataset of 29,576 posts from the X platform (December 2025) was analyzed through an integrated framework combining text mining, TF-IDF-based word analysis, deep learning-based sentiment analysis, and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modelling. The findings reveal that climate change discourse is predominantly characterized by negative sentiment, reflecting high levels of concern, perceived risk, and urgency, while positive content emphasizes awareness, solutions, and collective action. Topic modelling identifies three main themes: skepticism shaped by daily weather experiences, scientific and policy-oriented climate debates, and discussions on carbon emissions and human impact. These results demonstrate that social media serves not only as a space for emotional expression but also as a dynamic platform for information exchange and public opinion formation. From an adaptation perspective, AI-driven social media analytics provide valuable insights into public risk perception, misinformation patterns, and knowledge gaps, supporting evidence-based climate communication and policy development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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26 pages, 2365 KB

Open AccessArticle

Building Climate-Resilient Development Pathways Through Drought Adaptation in Vulnerable Pastoral Systems of Botswana

by Shirley Luka-Chikwenya, Lenyeletse Vincent Basupi and Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu

Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3482; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073482 - 2 Apr 2026

Viewed by 700

Abstract

Projected climate change indicates that drought intensity will increase across much of the Global South, intensifying water stress in semi-arid regions. In Botswana, rising temperatures and increasingly variable rainfall are exacerbating drought conditions, particularly for livestock-based systems that depend on reliable grazing and [...] Read more.

Projected climate change indicates that drought intensity will increase across much of the Global South, intensifying water stress in semi-arid regions. In Botswana, rising temperatures and increasingly variable rainfall are exacerbating drought conditions, particularly for livestock-based systems that depend on reliable grazing and water resources. This study was conducted in the Lake Ngami basin, Botswana, a predominantly pastoral community, to examine the adaptation and resilience of pastoralists to drought and climate change. The study examines the extent to which current coping strategies and institutional frameworks in the Lake Ngami basin contribute to long-term climate resilience among pastoral communities. It also assesses combinations of Climate-Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs) that are most critical for enabling a transition from reactive coping to proactive and sustainable adaptation. We utilized in-depth community interviews, focus group discussions, and policy content analysis guided by the Climate-Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs) framework to gather and analyze data using thematic analysis. Key findings indicated that droughts, intensified by factors like El Niño, have negatively affected the community’s livelihood, including grazing systems, access to water, and livestock productivity. The effectiveness of coping strategies was assessed through triangulation of thematic frequency, participant narratives of livelihood recovery, and analysis of policy implementation gaps. Pastoralists employed coping methods such as herd reduction, seasonal migration, and informal alternative livelihoods, but these were largely ineffective in promoting long-term resilience. While seasonal mobility provided short-term relief through access to distant grazing areas, forced livestock sales and herd reduction reduced herd size, weakening households’ long-term recovery capacity and increasing vulnerability. Institutional support programs such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy and the National Committee on Climate Change were found not adequate to build the necessary long-term pastoralists’ resilience. The study emphasizes that enhancing climate resilience in dryland pastoral systems necessitates combining traditional knowledge with improved infrastructure, climate information, and inclusive governance in comprehensive CRDPs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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22 pages, 757 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of ENSO Shocks on Firm Performance: The Role of Supply Chain Resilience and Network Complexity in Energy Firms

by Xueting Luo, Ke Gong, Aixing Li, Xiaomei Ding and Yuhang Yang

Sustainability 2026, 18(7), 3261; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18073261 - 26 Mar 2026

Viewed by 955

Abstract

Escalating climate volatility, particularly the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), poses severe operational and financial risks to corporate sustainability in the energy sector. However, quantitative evidence regarding how macro-level climate shocks transmit to micro-level operational performance remains scarce. Integrating dynamic capability and social network [...] Read more.

Escalating climate volatility, particularly the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), poses severe operational and financial risks to corporate sustainability in the energy sector. However, quantitative evidence regarding how macro-level climate shocks transmit to micro-level operational performance remains scarce. Integrating dynamic capability and social network theories, this study analyzes a panel of 103 Chinese listed energy firms (2005–2022) using System GMM, mediation, and moderation models. The results indicate that ENSO intensity significantly impairs performance; specifically, a 1 °C rise in sea surface temperature anomalies decreases firms’ return on assets (ROAs) by 0.142%. We identify supply chain resilience as a critical strategic mechanism for climate adaptation, where response capacity acts as the dominant mediating channel, while recovery capacity functions as an independent compensatory mechanism. Conversely, supply network complexity—across horizontal, vertical, and spatial dimensions—amplifies the negative impact of climate disruptions by hindering resource mobility. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that state-owned enterprises exhibit stronger institutional resilience, and firms in southern regions partially offset impacts through hydropower advantages. This study bridges climate science with operations management, offering strategic guidance for managers to configure resilient, sustainable supply chains capable of withstanding environmental turbulence. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 3464 KB

Open AccessArticle

Exploratory Analysis of Global TNFD Adoption and Strategic Implications for the Forestry and Environmental Sector

by Soongil Kwon, Hyewon Kim and Chiung Ko

Forests 2026, 17(3), 394; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030394 - 23 Mar 2026

Viewed by 1276

Abstract

The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) refers to both the international organizing body and the disclosure framework it developed. Throughout this article, the term TNFD is used to encompass both the organization and the framework to ensure precision while maintaining conciseness. TNFD [...] Read more.

The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) refers to both the international organizing body and the disclosure framework it developed. Throughout this article, the term TNFD is used to encompass both the organization and the framework to ensure precision while maintaining conciseness. TNFD has emerged as a key mechanism for integrating nature-related risks and opportunities into corporate decision-making, extending the scope of existing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and climate-related disclosures. As TNFD adoption remains at an early diffusion stage, empirical evidence on its global uptake and sectoral characteristics is still limited, particularly in nature-dependent industries such as forestry and environmental services. This study provides an exploratory mapping of global TNFD adoption patterns using the complete list of TNFD adopting organizations disclosed on the official TNFD platform as of June 2025. A total of 584 organizations across 54 countries were analyzed, with a focused examination of forestry- and environment-related entities. Rather than testing causal relationships, this research adopts a descriptive and structural analytical approach to identify geographic, institutional, and sectoral patterns of adoption. The results reveal a strong concentration of TNFD adoption in developed economies and corporate entities, while forestry-specific adopters remain limited in number. Notably, TNFD adoption does not appear to correlate with forest resource endowment, suggesting that governance capacity and financial disclosure readiness are more influential than ecological conditions. Based on these findings, the study discusses strategic implications for forestry and environmental organizations and proposes a conceptual framework for advancing nature-related financial disclosure in the sector. This research contributes an early-stage empirical foundation for understanding TNFD diffusion and offers practical insights for policymakers, corporations, and researchers seeking to operationalize nature-related disclosure frameworks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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25 pages, 3434 KB

Open AccessArticle

Education Increases Solar Radiation Modification Literacy but Reinforces Caution: Evidence from a Pre–Post University Study

by Pengyao Gao, Amanda Sie, Lili Xia and Chaochao Gao

Sustainability 2026, 18(6), 2689; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18062689 - 10 Mar 2026

Viewed by 580

Abstract

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential supplement to climate-change mitigation, yet public and stakeholder judgments remain sensitive to knowledge, framing, and perceived risks. We examined how a structured university classroom module on SRM reshaped student perceptions using a matched [...] Read more.

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential supplement to climate-change mitigation, yet public and stakeholder judgments remain sensitive to knowledge, framing, and perceived risks. We examined how a structured university classroom module on SRM reshaped student perceptions using a matched pre–post survey design. Participants were students enrolled in an English-taught global climate change course (N = 106); 103 students provided valid matched responses after applying pre-specified exclusion rules. Self-rated SRM knowledge increased substantially after the module (mean change +0.47 on a 1–3 scale; Wilcoxon signed-rank p (Holm-adjusted) < 1 × 10⁻⁷; Cohen’s dz = 0.67). Support for SRM research remained moderately positive but did not increase (pre mean 3.76 to post mean 3.54 on a 1–5 scale). In contrast, support for stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) deployment declined (pre mean 3.42 to post mean 2.95; p (Holm-adjusted) = 0.0084; dz = −0.33), and preferences shifted away from prioritizing climate intervention toward low-carbon development (mean change −0.68 on a 1–5 priority scale; p (Holm-adjusted) = 0.0001; dz = −0.45). Post-lecture models indicated that perceived benefits versus risks was the most consistent correlate of support across outcomes. Open-ended responses most frequently emphasized feasibility, unintended consequences, governance, and moral hazard. Overall, students largely endorsed SRM research as valuable while becoming more cautious about deployment and political prioritization, suggesting that balanced, structured instruction can sharpen sensitivity to evidence, uncertainty, and potential trade-offs that students also weighed in the survey. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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24 pages, 6964 KB

Open AccessArticle

Simulated Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution Range of Four Taxus Species in China

by Quanlong Jin, Yu Gao and Yuandong Hu

Plants 2026, 15(5), 721; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15050721 - 27 Feb 2026

Viewed by 646

Abstract

Taxus, a relic plant genus from the Tertiary period, contains taxane compounds that are crucial in anti-cancer drug development and have significant medicinal and ecological value. Evaluation of the potential distribution range and shifts for this genus considering global climate change is [...] Read more.

Taxus, a relic plant genus from the Tertiary period, contains taxane compounds that are crucial in anti-cancer drug development and have significant medicinal and ecological value. Evaluation of the potential distribution range and shifts for this genus considering global climate change is vital for conserving wild resources, supporting artificial propagation, and ensuring sustainable development. We analyzed the potential geographic distribution patterns and key environmental factors affecting four Taxus species (Taxus cuspidata, Taxus wallichiana var. mairei, Taxus wallichiana, and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis) under current climate conditions and four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) across three future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) using the regularization multiplier and feature combination parameters of the MaxEnt model. We also explored their responses to climate change over time. The area under the curve of models built using the ENMeval package exceeded 0.9, demonstrating high accuracy. Environmental analysis indicated that the coldest monthly minimum temperature was the main environmental factor influencing the species distribution, except in Taxus cuspidata, for which the human footprint was the primary factor. Currently, the habitats of the four Taxus species exhibit spatial variation, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis having the largest suitable area in China, covering approximately 200.89 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 21.17% of China’s land area. Habitat trends varied under future climate scenarios, with the suitable area expanding for Taxus wallichiana and Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis, and showing expansion and contraction for Taxus wallichiana var. mairei and Taxus cuspidata. The distribution centroids were predicted to shift to higher latitudes over time, with Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis showing particularly clear migration trends. These results offer a vital reference for developing conservation strategies and introduction and cultivation initiatives for these Taxus species. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 9605 KB

Open AccessArticle

Divergent Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Dynamics Across Land Use Types in Hunan Province, China

by Qing Peng, Cheng Li, Xiaohong Fang, Zijie Wu, Kwok Pan Chun and Thanti Octavianti

Sustainability 2026, 18(2), 621; https://doi.org/10.3390/su18020621 - 7 Jan 2026

Viewed by 729

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems in Hunan Province have undergone marked yet spatially heterogeneous vegetation changes under concurrent climate change and intensifying human activities. The aim of this study is to resolve how vegetation responses vary among land-use types by quantifying kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [...] Read more.

Terrestrial ecosystems in Hunan Province have undergone marked yet spatially heterogeneous vegetation changes under concurrent climate change and intensifying human activities. The aim of this study is to resolve how vegetation responses vary among land-use types by quantifying kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) dynamics during 2000–2023 using precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, coupled with trend analysis and a partial-derivative-based attribution. Mean kNDVI increased overall at 0.0016 yr⁻¹; vegetation improved over 76.30% of the area, whereas 5.72% of the area experienced degradation. Built-up land exhibited the largest degraded fraction (35.04%). Human activities and temperature emerged as the dominant drivers of kNDVI change, contributing 62.25% and 27.92%, respectively, while precipitation (3.08%) and solar radiation (6.77%) played comparatively minor roles. Spatially, human activities primarily controlled vegetation dynamics in plains and urban clusters (~78% of the area), whereas temperature constrained vegetation in high-elevation mountain ranges. Analysis along the human footprint (HFP) gradient reveals that driver composition remains steady in resilient ecosystems (farmland and forest), despite increasing anthropogenic pressure, whereas fragile ecosystems (grassland and bareland) exhibited pronounced volatility and heightened sensitivity to environmental constraints. These findings provide a quantitative basis for developing sustainable ecological security strategies, incorporating region-specific measures such as adaptive afforestation, sustainable agricultural management, and strict ecological protection, to enhance ecosystem resilience by prioritizing the climate resilience of mountain forests and the stability of fragile grassland systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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15 pages, 10432 KB

Open AccessArticle

A Monte-Carlo-Based Method for Probabilistic Permafrost Mapping Across Northeast China During 2003 to 2022

by Yao Xiao, Lei Zhao, Shuqi Wang, Xuyang Wu, Kai Gao and Yunhu Shang

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2026, 15(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi15010009 - 22 Dec 2025

Viewed by 798

Abstract

Permafrost degradation under climate warming has profound implications for ecological processes, hydrology, and human activities. Northeast China, characterized by sporadic and isolated patch permafrost near the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost (SLLP), represents one of the most sensitive and complex permafrost regions. This [...] Read more.

Permafrost degradation under climate warming has profound implications for ecological processes, hydrology, and human activities. Northeast China, characterized by sporadic and isolated patch permafrost near the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost (SLLP), represents one of the most sensitive and complex permafrost regions. This study aims to improve the reliability of permafrost mapping by incorporating parameter uncertainty into simulations. We developed a Monte Carlo–Temperature at the Top of Permafrost (TTOP) (MC–TTOP) framework that integrates an equilibrium model with Monte Carlo sampling to quantify parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty. Using all-sky daily air temperature data and land use and land cover information, we generated probabilistic estimates of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT), permafrost occurrence probability (PZI), and associated uncertainties. Model validation against borehole observations demonstrated improved accuracy compared with global-scale simulations, with a reduced bias and RMSE. Results reveal that permafrost in Northeast China was relatively stable during 2003–2010 but experienced pronounced degradation after 2011, with the total area decreasing to ~2.79 × 10⁵ km² by 2022. Spatial uncertainty was greatest in transitional zones near the southern boundary, where PZI-based delineations tended to overestimate permafrost extent. Regional comparisons further showed that permafrost in Northeast China is more fragmented and uncertain than that on the Tibetan Plateau, owing to complex snow–vegetation–topography interactions and intensive human disturbances. Overall, the MC-TTOP simulations indicate an accelerated permafrost degradation after 2011, with the highest uncertainty concentrated in southern transitional zones near the SLLP, demonstrating that the MC-TTOP framework provides a robust tool for probabilistic permafrost mapping, offering improved reliability for regional-scale assessments and important insights for future risk evaluation under climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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17 pages, 3657 KB

Open AccessArticle

Combined Application of Acidic Phosphate Fertilizers Improves Drip-Irrigated Soybean Yield and Phosphorus Utilization Efficiency in Liming Soil

by Dongfei Liu, Hailong Di, Songlin Liu, Yuchen Hao, Wenli Cui, Kaiyong Wang, Hong Huang and Hua Fan

Agronomy 2025, 15(12), 2852; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy15122852 - 11 Dec 2025

Viewed by 949

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) characteristics significantly affect crop yield and P use efficiency (PUE). It is unclear whether different types of acidic phosphate fertilizers can enhance the availability of phosphorus in liming soil and soybean yields. In this field experiment in 2022 and 2023 in [...] Read more.

Phosphorus (P) characteristics significantly affect crop yield and P use efficiency (PUE). It is unclear whether different types of acidic phosphate fertilizers can enhance the availability of phosphorus in liming soil and soybean yields. In this field experiment in 2022 and 2023 in Xinjiang, China, four phosphate fertilization treatments, including no phosphate fertilization (CK), application of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), application of urea phosphate (UP), and application of a mixture of monoammonium phosphate and urea phosphate (8:2, M8U2), were designed. Then, the impacts of the four phosphate treatments on the PUE, growth, and yield of the high-oil soybean variety Kennong 23 under drip irrigation were explored. The results showed that the application of phosphate fertilizers significantly increased the soil inorganic P, available P, and total P content compared with CK, promoting the growth and yield formation of soybeans. The soil Ca2-P content of the UP treatment was higher than that of the MAP treatment. The soil Ca8-P content of the M8U2 treatment was higher than that of the MAP treatment, but the soil phosphorus fixation was lower. The soil available P content, soybean plant P accumulation, leaf photosynthetic capacity, and dry matter accumulation all reached the maximum in the M8U2 treatment. The soybean yield, net revenue, and PUE of the M8U2 treatment were 6.04%, 9.37%, and 14.16% higher than those of the MAP treatment, and 7.64%, 16.59%, and 23.50% higher than those of the UP treatment, respectively. Therefore, the combined application of acidic phosphate fertilizers (MAP and UP) can increase soil available P content and plant P absorption in liming soil and stimulate photosynthesis, enhancing soybean yield and PUE. This study will provide a technical reference for the P reduction and soybean yield enhancement in arid areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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27 pages, 2513 KB

Open AccessArticle

Disability, Perceptions of Climate Change Impacts, and Inclusive Climate Action Priorities in Abia State Nigeria

by Queensley C. Chukwudum, David O. Anyaele, Godwin Unumeri, Penelope J. S. Stein and Michael Ashley Stein

Sustainability 2025, 17(20), 9229; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209229 - 17 Oct 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1620

Abstract

Persons with disabilities are disproportionately and differentially impacted by climate change, particularly in low-income settings. Our novel study reports findings from a survey of 104 Nigerians with disabilities and focus groups; examines the climate change impacts perceived by persons with disabilities; enumerates the [...] Read more.

Persons with disabilities are disproportionately and differentially impacted by climate change, particularly in low-income settings. Our novel study reports findings from a survey of 104 Nigerians with disabilities and focus groups; examines the climate change impacts perceived by persons with disabilities; enumerates the barriers to climate responses they experience; and identifies disability-inclusive key climate action priorities and climate solutions in Abia State, Nigeria. Our findings indicate that the dominant climate impacts perceived by respondents with disabilities were poverty, loss of agricultural productivity and livelihood, and effects on wellbeing. Climate response measures were predominantly inaccessible to participants with disabilities facing structural barriers including stigma and discrimination, a lack of meaningful inclusion in decision-making, and a scarcity of disability-inclusive climate resources. Key climate action priorities identified by respondents included advancing understanding of the disparate impact of climate change on persons with disabilities, promoting inclusive disaster risk reduction, centering and prioritizing disability equity within climate action, and enabling inclusive sustainable livelihoods. Experiential insights at the micro-level from persons with disabilities are vital to formulating climate-related policy and climate decision-making. We recommend innovative cross-cutting policies and interventions to repair structural disability discrimination and promote urgent inclusive climate action that benefits all of society. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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26 pages, 1339 KB

Open AccessArticle

Do Physical and Transition Climate Risks Drive the Volatility and Dynamic Correlations Between Fossil Energy Markets and Stocks Prices of Clean Energy?

by Ying Zhang, Weifeng Li and Li Yang

Sustainability 2025, 17(20), 9044; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17209044 - 13 Oct 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2005

Abstract

Climate risks are one of the major challenges facing sustainable development. This study examines how physical and transition climate risks influence the volatility and correlation of fossil energy futures and clean energy stock indices, using a mixed-frequency modeling framework. Taking the Paris Agreement [...] Read more.

Climate risks are one of the major challenges facing sustainable development. This study examines how physical and transition climate risks influence the volatility and correlation of fossil energy futures and clean energy stock indices, using a mixed-frequency modeling framework. Taking the Paris Agreement as the starting point for the global energy transition, we aim to compare the impacts of climate risks on various fossil energy assets and clean energy assets and investigate how the dynamic linkages between clean energy and fossil energy assets have evolved under the influence of climate risks. The results show that climate risks have increased the volatility of fossil energy and clean energy assets to varying degrees. Correlation patterns vary by energy type: crude oil futures and clean energy indices exhibit a decoupling trend under climate risks, while natural gas futures show a more consistent, positive linkage. These findings not only provide useful guidance for investors in formulating more effective strategies under increasing climate risks but also offer policymakers valuable insights into designing optimal approaches to balance decarbonization objectives with energy security. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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17 pages, 1996 KB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Yield Potential of Silage Sorghum: Cultivar Differences in Biomass Production, Plant Height, and Tillering Under Contrasting Soil Conditions in Central Europe

by Lenka Porčová, Nicole Frantová, Michal Rábek, Ivana Jovanović, Vladimír Smutný, Michal Řiháček and Eva Mrkvicová

Agronomy 2025, 15(10), 2352; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy15102352 - 7 Oct 2025

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1979

Abstract

We conducted a three-year field study to evaluate the above-ground biomass yield, plant height, and tillering capacity of eight Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench varieties under two contrasting soil conditions (heavy clay soil and sandy soil) with different water retention. At the Field Experimental [...] Read more.

We conducted a three-year field study to evaluate the above-ground biomass yield, plant height, and tillering capacity of eight Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench varieties under two contrasting soil conditions (heavy clay soil and sandy soil) with different water retention. At the Field Experimental Station Žabčice of Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic, we assessed yield performance and yield stability across years and environments. We applied standard agronomic practices and recorded detailed soil and climatic data. Significant differences were found among varieties and between locations in terms of plant height and tillering. KWS SOLE showed the most stable yield (11.80–15.63 t ha⁻¹), while LATTE, KWS TARZAN, and KWS HANNIBAL achieved the highest average yields (up to 20.16 t ha⁻¹). Plant height showed a strong positive correlation with biomass yield. This relationship underscores plant height as a valuable trait for selecting sorghum varieties with improved productivity and drought resilience. Variations in tillering capacity and environmental conditions also significantly influenced yield outcomes, highlighting the complex interaction between genotype and environment. These findings offer practical insights for cultivar selection and breeding strategies that aim to enhance the performance of sorghum varieties under the variable climatic conditions of Central Europe. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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26 pages, 9026 KB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ecological Resilience of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

by Jianglin Yao, Hongliang Wu and Feng Yan

Sustainability 2025, 17(18), 8265; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188265 - 15 Sep 2025

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1304

Abstract

With climate change and frequent extreme weather events, ecological stability is facing threats. This study constructs a quantitative assessment model coupling climate change and ecological resilience (ER), explores the impact of future climate change on ER, and identifies key meteorological risks that affect [...] Read more.

With climate change and frequent extreme weather events, ecological stability is facing threats. This study constructs a quantitative assessment model coupling climate change and ecological resilience (ER), explores the impact of future climate change on ER, and identifies key meteorological risks that affect ER. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the research area, the main research results are as follows: (1) Under the four future scenarios, the Climate Change Impact Index (CCI) values for ER are −0.8005, −0.8924, −0.9540, and −1.2298, respectively, indicating a general decline in ER across the YREB. (2) The extent of climate change impacts varies significantly among scenarios, with the ranking SSP5-8.5 > SSP4-6.0 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6. The SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibits the most severe impacts, with CCI values of −0.7015, −1.2910, −1.3124, and −1.6144. (3) Spatially, climate change exerts the greatest impact on the upstream regions, followed by the downstream and midstream areas. Among these, very high resilience and very low resilience levels experience the most pronounced changes. (4) Temperature (Temp) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are the main meteorological risks for the deterioration of ER. In future scenarios, Temp demonstrates an increasing trend while NDVI shows a significant decline. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 6204 KB

Open AccessArticle

Bio-Ecological Indicators for Gentiana pneumonanthe L. Climatic Suitability in the Iberian Peninsula

by Teresa R. Freitas, Sílvia Martins, Joaquim Jesus, João Campos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Ernestino Maravalhas, Helder Fraga and João A. Santos

Plants 2025, 14(18), 2857; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14182857 - 12 Sep 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2829

Abstract

Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables [...] Read more.

Gentiana pneumonanthe L., a wetland specialist and exclusive host of the Alcon Blue (Phengaris alcon), is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study assessed the future climate suitability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for G. pneumonanthe. From 14 bioclimatic variables (ISIMIP3b, processed by CHELSA method at 1 km²) and two topographic variables, four bio-ecological indicators were selected using Pearson correlation and Variance Inflation Factors: Thermicity Index, Ombrothermic Index, Accumulated summer precipitation from June to August, and Maximum of the daily maximum temperature of August. A species distribution model platform (Biomod2) was applied for historical (1995–2014) and future periods (2041–2060, 2081–2100) under two anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model created shows a strong predictive performance (BOYCE: 0.98). Historically, 13.4% of the IP was climatically suitable, mainly in mountain areas. Under SSP3-7.0, suitable areas are projected to decline by 74.2% (2041–2060) and 99.3% (2081–2100); under SSP5-8.5, by 75.5% and 99.9%, respectively. While small gains may occur in the Pyrenees, most conservation protected areas (Natura 2000, RAMSAR) may lose suitability for species persistence. Such losses could disrupt ecological ecosystems and directly threaten the survival of P. alcon. These findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed land-use planning and effective habitat conservation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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24 pages, 13599 KB

Open AccessArticle

Optimized Extrapolation Methods Enhance Prediction of Elsholtzia densa Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau

by Zeyuan Liu, Youhai Wei, Liang Cheng, Hongyu Chen and Hua Weng

Sustainability 2025, 17(18), 8206; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17188206 - 11 Sep 2025

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1287

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) grapple with uncertainty. To address this, a parameter-optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict habitat suitability for Elsholtzia densa, a predominant agricultural weed on the Tibetan Plateau. Through multiparameter optimization with 149 occurrence points and three climate variable [...] Read more.

Species distribution models (SDMs) grapple with uncertainty. To address this, a parameter-optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict habitat suitability for Elsholtzia densa, a predominant agricultural weed on the Tibetan Plateau. Through multiparameter optimization with 149 occurrence points and three climate variable sets, we systematically evaluated how the three MaxEnt extrapolation approaches (Free Extrapolation, Extrapolation with Clamping, No Extrapolation) influenced model outputs. The results showed the following: (1) Model optimization using the Kuenm R package version (1.1.10) identified seven critical bioclimatic variables (Feature Combinations = LQTH, Regularization Multipliers = 2.5), with optimized models demonstrating high accuracy (Area Under Curve > 0.9). (2) Extrapolation approaches exhibited negligible effects on variable selection, though four bioclimatic variables “bio1 (annual mean temperature)”, “bio12 (annual precipitation)”, “bio2 (mean diurnal range)”, and “bio7 (temperature annual range)” predominantly drove model predictions. (3) Current high-suitability areas are clustered in the eastern and southern regions of the Tibetan Plateau, and with Free Extrapolation yielding the broadest current distribution. Climate change projections suggest habitat expansion, particularly under conditions of No Extrapolation. (4) Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface (MESS) and Most Dissimilar Variable (MoD) are not affected by the extrapolation method, and extrapolation risk analyses indicate that future climate anomalies are mainly concentrated in the western and southern parts of the Tibetan Plateau and that future warming will further increase the unsuitability of these regions. (5) Variance analysis showed that the extrapolation methods did not significantly affect the 10-replicate results but influenced the parameter and emission scenarios, with No Extrapolation methods showing minimal variance changes. Our findings validate that multiparameter optimization improves species distribution model robustness, systematically characterizes extrapolation impacts on distribution projections, and provides a conceptual framework and early warning systems for agricultural weed management on the Tibetan Plateau. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 2122 KB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change of Near-Surface Temperature in South Africa Based on Weather Station Data, ERA5 Reanalysis, and CMIP6 Models

by Ilya Serykh, Svetlana Krasheninnikova, Tatiana Gorbunova, Roman Gorbunov, Joseph Akpan, Oluyomi Ajayi, Maliga Reddy, Paul Musonge, Felix Mora-Camino and Oludolapo Akanni Olanrewaju

Climate 2025, 13(8), 161; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13080161 - 1 Aug 2025

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4855

Abstract

This study investigates changes in Near-Surface Air Temperature (NSAT) over the South African region using weather station data, reanalysis products, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. It is shown that, based on ERA5 reanalysis, the average NSAT increase in [...] Read more.

This study investigates changes in Near-Surface Air Temperature (NSAT) over the South African region using weather station data, reanalysis products, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. It is shown that, based on ERA5 reanalysis, the average NSAT increase in the region (45–10° S, 0–50° E) for the period 1940–2023 was 0.11 ± 0.04 °C. Weak multi-decadal changes in NSAT were observed from 1940 to the mid-1970s, followed by a rapid warming trend starting in the mid-1970s. Weather station data generally confirm these results, although they exhibit considerable inter-station variability. An ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models also reproduces these multi-decadal NSAT change characteristics. Specifically, the average model-simulated NSAT values for the region increased by 0.63 ± 0.12 °C between the periods 1940–1969 and 1994–2023. Based on the results of the comparison between weather station observations, reanalysis, and models, we utilize projections of NSAT changes from the analyzed ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models until the end of the 21st century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. These projections indicate that the average NSAT of the South African region will increase between 1994–2023 and 2070–2099 by 0.92 ± 0.36 °C under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, by 1.73 ± 0.44 °C under SSP2-4.5, by 2.52 ± 0.50 °C under SSP3-7.0, and by 3.17 ± 0.68 °C under SSP5-8.5. Between 1994–2023 and 2025–2054, the increase in average NSAT for the studied region, considering inter-model spread, will be 0.49–1.15 °C, depending on the SSP scenario. Furthermore, climate warming in South Africa, both in the next 30 years and by the end of the 21st century, is projected to occur according to all 33 CMIP6 models under all considered SSP scenarios. The main spatial feature of this warming is a more significant increase in NSAT over the landmass of the studied region compared to its surrounding waters, due to the stabilizing role of the ocean. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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24 pages, 6762 KB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and Multiscale Responses of Driving Factors in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

by Yuzhou Zhang, Wanmei Zhao and Jianxin Yang

Sustainability 2025, 17(13), 6119; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17136119 - 3 Jul 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1807

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanization, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is critical for ensuring regional ecological security and achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta [...] Read more.

Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanization, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is critical for ensuring regional ecological security and achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) and integrates multi-source remote sensing data with socioeconomic statistics. By combining interpretable machine learning (XGBoost-SHAP) with multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and incorporating Theil–Sen trend analysis and Mann–Kendall significance testing, we systematically analyze the spatiotemporal variations in NPP and its multiscale driving mechanisms from 2001 to 2020. The results reveal the following: (1) Total NPP in the YRDUA shows an increasing trend, with approximately 24.83% of the region experiencing a significant rise and only 2.75% showing a significant decline, indicating continuous improvement in regional ecological conditions. (2) Land use change resulted in a net NPP loss of 2.67 TgC, yet ecological restoration and advances in agricultural technology effectively mitigated negative impacts and became the main contributors to NPP growth. (3) The results from XGBoost and MGWR are complementary, highlighting the scale-dependent effects of driving factors—at the regional scale, natural factors such as elevation (DEM), precipitation (PRE), and vegetation cover (VFC) have positive impacts on NPP, while the human footprint (HF) generally exerts a negative effect. However, in certain areas, a dose–response effect is observed, in which moderate human intervention can enhance ecological functions. (4) The spatial heterogeneity of NPP is mainly driven by nonlinear interactions between natural and anthropogenic factors. Notably, the interaction between DEM and climatic variables exhibits threshold responses and a “spatial gradient–factor interaction” mechanism, where the same driver may have opposite effects under different geomorphic conditions. Therefore, a well-balanced combination of land use transformation and ecological conservation policies is crucial for enhancing regional ecological functions and NPP. These findings provide scientific support for ecological management and the formulation of sustainable development strategies in urban agglomerations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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17 pages, 897 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Gender–Climate–Security Nexus: A Case Study of Plateau State

by T. Oluwaseyi Ishola and Isaac Luginaah

Climate 2025, 13(7), 136; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13070136 - 30 Jun 2025

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 5464

Abstract

This study investigates the gendered nexus between climate change, food insecurity, and conflict in Plateau State, Nigeria. This region in north-central Nigeria is marked by recurring farmer–herder clashes and climate-induced environmental degradation. Drawing on qualitative methods, including interviews, gender-disaggregated focus groups, and key [...] Read more.

This study investigates the gendered nexus between climate change, food insecurity, and conflict in Plateau State, Nigeria. This region in north-central Nigeria is marked by recurring farmer–herder clashes and climate-induced environmental degradation. Drawing on qualitative methods, including interviews, gender-disaggregated focus groups, and key informant discussions, the research explores how climate variability and violent conflict interact to exacerbate household food insecurity. The methodology allows the capture of nuanced perspectives and lived experiences, particularly emphasizing the differentiated impacts on women and men. The findings reveal that irregular rainfall patterns, declining agricultural yields, and escalating violence have disrupted traditional farming systems and undermined rural livelihoods. The study also shows that women, though they are responsible for household food management, face disproportionate burdens due to restricted mobility, limited access to resources, and a heightened exposure to gender-based violence. Grounded in Conflict Theory, Frustration–Aggression Theory, and Feminist Political Ecology, the analysis shows how intersecting vulnerabilities, such as gender, age, and socioeconomic status, shape experiences of food insecurity and adaptation strategies. Women often find creative and local ways to cope with challenges, including seed preservation, rationing, and informal trade. However, systemic barriers continue to hinder sustainable progress. This study emphasized the need for integrating gender-sensitive interventions into policy frameworks, such as land tenure reforms, targeted agricultural support for women, and improved security measures, to effectively mitigate food insecurity and promote sustainable livelihoods, especially in conflict-affected regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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19 pages, 1200 KB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of Rice–Fish Coculture on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Case Study in Terraced Paddy Fields of Qingtian, China

by Qixuan Li, Lina Xie, Shiwei Lin, Xiangbing Cheng, Qigen Liu and Yalei Li

Agronomy 2025, 15(6), 1480; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy15061480 - 18 Jun 2025

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2661

Abstract

Rice–fish coculture, a traditional integrated agriculture–aquaculture system, has been recognized as a “Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System” due to its ecological and socio-economic benefits. However, the impact of rice–fish coculture on greenhouse gas emissions remains controversial. This study investigated the effects of rice–fish [...] Read more.

Rice–fish coculture, a traditional integrated agriculture–aquaculture system, has been recognized as a “Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System” due to its ecological and socio-economic benefits. However, the impact of rice–fish coculture on greenhouse gas emissions remains controversial. This study investigated the effects of rice–fish coculture on methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions in the Qingtian rice–fish system, a 1200-year-old terraced paddy field system in Zhejiang Province, China. A field experiment with two treatments, rice–fish coculture (RF) and rice monoculture (RM), was conducted to examine the relationships between fish activities, water and soil properties, microbial communities, and greenhouse gas fluxes. Results showed that the RF system had significantly higher CH₄ emissions, particularly during the early rice growth stage, compared to the RM system. This increase was attributed to the lower dissolved oxygen levels and higher methanogen abundance in the RF system, likely driven by the grazing, “muddying”, and burrowing activities of fish. In contrast, no significant differences in N₂O emissions were observed between the two systems. Redundancy analysis revealed that water variables contributed more to the variation in greenhouse gas emissions than soil variables. Microbial community analysis indicated that the RF system supported a more diverse microbial community involved in methane cycling processes. These findings provide new insights into the complex interactions between fish activities, environmental factors, and microbial communities in regulating greenhouse gas emissions from rice–fish coculture systems. The results suggest that optimizing water management strategies and exploring the potential of microbial community manipulation could help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining the ecological and socio-economic benefits of these traditional integrated agriculture–aquaculture systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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32 pages, 11121 KB

Open AccessArticle

Construction of a Cold Island Spatial Pattern from the Perspective of Landscape Connectivity to Alleviate the Urban Heat Island Effect

by Qianli Ouyang, Bohong Zheng, Junyou Liu, Xi Luo, Shengyan Wu and Zhaoqian Sun

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2025, 14(6), 209; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi14060209 - 23 May 2025

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3036

Abstract

This study presents an innovative approach to mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect by constructing a cold island spatial pattern (CSP) from the perspective of landscape connectivity, integrating three-dimensional (3D) urban morphology and meteorological factors for the first time. Unlike traditional studies [...] Read more.

This study presents an innovative approach to mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect by constructing a cold island spatial pattern (CSP) from the perspective of landscape connectivity, integrating three-dimensional (3D) urban morphology and meteorological factors for the first time. Unlike traditional studies that focus on isolated patches or single-city scales, we propose a hierarchical framework for urban agglomerations, combining morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), landscape connectivity assessment, and circuit theory to a construct CSP at the scale of urban agglomeration. By incorporating wind environment data and 3D building features (e.g., height, density) into the resistance surface, we enhance the accuracy of cooling network identification, revealing 39 cold island sources, 89 cooling corridors, and optimal corridor widths (600 m) in the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration (CZXUA). Ultimately, a three-tiered heat island mitigation framework for urban agglomerations was established based on the CSP. This study offers an innovative perspective on urban climate adaptability planning within the context of contemporary urbanization. Our methodology and findings provide critical insights for future studies to integrate multiscale, multidimensional, and climate-adaptive approaches in urban thermal environment governance, fostering sustainable urbanization under escalating climate challenges. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2nd Edition)

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