Under carbon emission reduction constraints, accurately assessing the spatial–temporal
patterns and drivers of mariculture carbon emissions and sinks is critical for promoting
marine economic development and achieving carbon neutrality. This study reviews key
components of China’s mariculture carbon and analyzes provincial data from
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Under carbon emission reduction constraints, accurately assessing the spatial–temporal
patterns and drivers of mariculture carbon emissions and sinks is critical for promoting
marine economic development and achieving carbon neutrality. This study reviews key
components of China’s mariculture carbon and analyzes provincial data from 2008 to 2023
using econometric models to estimate emissions, sinks, and net carbon values. Spatial
heterogeneity and spillover effects are examined through geographically weighted
regression, Moran’s I, and spatial Durbin models. The findings indicate the following: (1)
Both direct and indirect mariculture carbon emissions are rising, with indirect emissions
growing faster, notably in Shandong, Fujian, and Guangdong. (2) Shellfish carbon sinks
generally dominate; algal carbon sinks are growing rapidly, especially in Fujian, Zhejiang
and Shandong. (3) Net carbon values vary by region—positive in Liaoning, Hebei,
Shandong, and Hainan, and negative in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and
Guangxi. (4) Energy intensity increases emissions; industrial upgrading reduces them.
Technological innovation, energy intensity, and ecological constraints enhance sinks. (5)
Emission spillovers are positive for energy and negative for structure; sink spillovers are
positive for energy and negative for technology; ecological effects are insignificant.
Overall, shellfish and algae mariculture play a key role in China’s marine carbon
sequestration. Regionalized carbon governance is essential to balance emissions–sinks,
and to advance low-carbon mariculture.
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