Climate

24 pages, 5981 KB

Open AccessArticle

Projected 21st Century Increased Water Stress in the Athabasca River Basin: The Center of Canada’s Oil Sands Industry

by Marc-Olivier Brault, Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques, Yuliya Andreichuk, Sunil Gurrapu, Alexandre V. Pace and David Sauchyn

Climate 2025, 13(9), 198; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090198 - 21 Sep 2025

Abstract

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, [...] Read more.

The Athabasca River Basin (ARB) is the location of the Canadian oil sands industry and 70.8% of global estimated bitumen deposits. The Athabasca River is the water source for highly water-intensive bitumen processing. Our objective is to project ARB temperature, precipitation, total runoff, climate moisture index (CMI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 2011–2100 using the superior modelling skill of seven regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). These projections show an average 6 °C annual temperature increase for 2071–2100 under RCP 8.5 relative to 1971–2000. Resulting increases in evapotranspiration may be partially offset by an average 0.3 mm/day annual precipitation increase. The projected precipitation increases are in the winter, spring, and autumn, with declines in summer. CORDEX RCMs project a slight increase (0.04 mm/day) in annual averaged runoff, with a shift to an earlier springtime melt pulse. However, these are countered by projected declines in summer and early autumn runoff. There will be significant decreases in annual and summertime CMI and annual SPEI. We conclude that there will be increasingly stressed ARB water availability, particularly in summer, doubtless resulting in repercussions on ARB industrial activities with their extensive water allocations and withdrawals. Full article

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24 pages, 7803 KB

Open AccessArticle

High-Resolution Projections of Bioclimatic Variables in Türkiye: Emerging Patterns and Temporal Shifts

by Yurdanur Ünal, Ayşegül Ceren Moral, Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Ongun Şahin and Emre Salkım

Climate 2025, 13(9), 197; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090197 - 19 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of climatic and bioclimatic conditions across Türkiye for both a historical reference period (1995–2014) and future projections (2020–2099) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) scenarios using the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM to downscale [...] Read more.

This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of climatic and bioclimatic conditions across Türkiye for both a historical reference period (1995–2014) and future projections (2020–2099) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) scenarios using the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM to downscale large-scale signals to a regional scale at high resolution (0.11). A comparison of the model with ERA5-Land reanalysis data revealed annual biases of +1.41 °C (warm) and −0.28 mm/day (dry), emphasizing the importance of bias correction in regional climate assessments. Bias-corrected future projections indicate a marked warming trend and significant decline in precipitation, especially after the 2060s, with pronounced spatial variability across regions. The most intense warming period of the century is the 2060–2079 period, with an anticipated increase of 0.109 °C/year under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, while, under the SSP2-4.5, it is the 2040–2059 period with an increase of 0.068 °C/year. Bioclimatic variables further illustrate shifts in temperature extremes, seasonal variability, and precipitation patterns. Coastal regions are expected to experience a delay in the onset of wet seasons of 1–2 months, while high-altitude zones show earlier shifts of up to 4 months. Four distinct clusters were identified by using k-means clustering method, each with unique temporal and spatial evolution under both SSP scenarios. Clusters 1 and 2, which predominantly represent continental and interior regions, exhibit a strong association with earlier precipitation onset. Notably, arid and semi-arid conditions expand northward, replacing temperate zones in Central Anatolia. Overall, findings suggest that Türkiye is undergoing a substantial climatic transition toward hotter and drier conditions, regardless of the emission scenario. This study has critical implications for ecological resilience, agricultural sustainability, and water resource management, and offers valuable information for targeted climate adaptation strategies and land-use planning in vulnerable regions of Türkiye. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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29 pages, 1306 KB

Open AccessArticle

Public Perceptions of Climate Change Trends in the Entre Douro e Minho Region (Northern Portugal): A Comprehensive Survey Analysis

by Leonel J. R. Nunes

Climate 2025, 13(9), 196; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090196 - 18 Sep 2025

Abstract

Background: Understanding the perceptions of climate change among local populations is crucial for informing public awareness and supporting the development of evidence-based policies. The Entre Douro e Minho region in Northern Portugal faces significant climate challenges, yet comprehensive studies on local population perceptions [...] Read more.

Background: Understanding the perceptions of climate change among local populations is crucial for informing public awareness and supporting the development of evidence-based policies. The Entre Douro e Minho region in Northern Portugal faces significant climate challenges, yet comprehensive studies on local population perceptions remain limited. Objective: This study assessed public perceptions of climate change evolution among residents of the Entre Douro e Minho region, examining demographic and spatial influences on climate awareness and attribution beliefs. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted between October 2024 and March 2025, targeting residents of the Porto, Braga, and Viana do Castelo districts. Statistical analysis employed descriptive statistics, Spearman correlations, and non-parametric tests with psychometrically validated instruments. Results: Among 1749 valid responses (82.0% response rate), residents demonstrated high levels of climate change awareness (mean = 3.87/5.0) and a large number attributed this to anthropogenic causes (mean = 3.82/5.0). Education emerged as the strongest demographic predictor of climate attribution beliefs (ρ = 0.279, p < 0.001, small to medium effect), while age showed a negative association (ρ = −0.255, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis revealed significant district-level variations, with Viana do Castelo consistently showing higher levels of climate awareness across all measures. Wildfires (77.4%) and heatwaves (70.6%) were the most prevalent perceptions of extreme weather, while reforestation and forest management (77.3%) emerged as the most preferred adaptation strategy. Conclusions: This study reveals high levels of climate change awareness, characterized by significant demographic and spatial heterogeneity. Educational attainment and generational differences create distinct perception profiles requiring targeted communication strategies. These findings provide an evidence base for developing age-differentiated climate education programs and geographically tailored adaptation policies in Northern Portugal and similar European contexts. Full article

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17 pages, 897 KB

Open AccessArticle

Integrated Water–Energy–Food System for Rural Climate Adaptation: The Green Village Model in Oman

by Sultan Al-Maskari and Bachar Ibrahim

Climate 2025, 13(9), 195; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090195 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Rural communities in arid regions face linked challenges of water scarcity, energy insecurity, and climate stress. This study develops a pilot-scale “Green Village” model for Dar Al-Sawda, Oman, integrating agrivoltaic solar generation with natural wastewater treatment and agroforestry to enhance resilience. We used [...] Read more.

Rural communities in arid regions face linked challenges of water scarcity, energy insecurity, and climate stress. This study develops a pilot-scale “Green Village” model for Dar Al-Sawda, Oman, integrating agrivoltaic solar generation with natural wastewater treatment and agroforestry to enhance resilience. We used a mixed-methods design: semi-structured interviews with residents and experts informed the system requirements, and PVsyst simulations and field monitoring quantified expected performance. The integrated design comprises two 15 m³ ReedBox^® natural wastewater treatment units and a 75 kWp agrivoltaic array above olive orchards. The treatment system processes 26 m³ day⁻¹ for irrigation reuse, while the solar plant is estimated to generate 147,700 kWh per year. Performance ratio (PR) results are reported explicitly: monthly PR simulated for 2024 ranged from 0.70 to 0.81 (mean 0.77), while the annual PR estimated by PVsyst under a clean-panel case was 0.85 (85%). The modeled energy supply covers the treatment units and essential community loads, reducing diesel use and reliance on trucked water. For approximately 120 residents, the Green Village concept improves water security, clean energy access, and local food production, helping to counter rural out-migration. The results demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of an integrated water–energy–food approach and offer a scalable blueprint for sustainable development in Oman and comparable arid settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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24 pages, 2603 KB

Open AccessArticle

Culture Mediates Climate Opinion Change: A System Dynamics Model of Risk Perception, Polarization, and Policy Effectiveness

by Yoon Ah Shin, Sara M. Constantino, Louis J. Gross, Ann Kinzig, Katherine Lacasse and Brian Beckage

Climate 2025, 13(9), 194; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090194 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Despite the growing impacts of climate change worldwide, achieving consensus on climate action remains a challenge partly because of heterogeneity in perceptions of climate risks within and across countries. Lack of consensus has hindered global collective action. We use a system dynamics approach [...] Read more.

Despite the growing impacts of climate change worldwide, achieving consensus on climate action remains a challenge partly because of heterogeneity in perceptions of climate risks within and across countries. Lack of consensus has hindered global collective action. We use a system dynamics approach to examine how interactions among cultural, socio-political, psychological, and institutional factors shape public support or opposition for climate mitigation policy. We investigate the conditions under which the dominant public opinion about climate policy can shift within a 20-year time frame. We observed opinion shifts in 20% of simulations, primarily in individualistic cultural contexts with high perceived climate risk. Changing the dominant opinion was especially difficult to achieve in collectivistic cultures, as we observed no shifts in dominant opinion within the parameter ranges examined. Our study underscores the importance of understanding how cultural context mediates the approaches needed to effectively mobilize collective climate action. Full article

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29 pages, 7244 KB

Open AccessArticle

Teleconnections Between the Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs and the Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea

by Ali B. Almahri, Hosny M. Hasanean and Abdulhaleem H. Labban

Climate 2025, 13(9), 193; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090193 - 17 Sep 2025

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea pose significant threats to coastal populations and result in substantial economic losses, yet their variability in response to major climate modes remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the [...] Read more.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea pose significant threats to coastal populations and result in substantial economic losses, yet their variability in response to major climate modes remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) with TC activity over the Arabian Sea from 1982 to 2021. Utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s best-track data, reanalysis datasets, and composite analysis, we find that ENSO and IOD phases affect TC activity differently across seasons. The pre-monsoon season shows a limited association between TC activity and both ENSO and IOD, with minimal variation in frequency, intensity, and energy metrics. However, during the post-monsoon season, El Niño enhances TC intensity, resulting in a higher frequency of intense storms, leading to increased accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and power dissipation index (PDI) in a statistically significant way. In contrast, La Niña favors the development of weaker TC systems and an increased frequency of depressions. While negative IOD (nIOD) phases tend to suppress TC formation, positive IOD (pIOD) phases are associated with increased TC activity, characterized by longer durations and higher ACE and PDI (statistically significant). Genesis sites shift with ENSO: El Niño favors genesis in the eastern Arabian Sea, causing westward or northeastward tracks, while La Niña shifts genesis toward the central-western basin, promoting northwestward movement. Composite analysis indicates that higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reduced vertical wind shear (VWS), increased mid-tropospheric humidity, and lower sea level pressure (SLP) during El Niño and pIOD phases create favorable conditions for TC intensification. In contrast, La Niña and nIOD phases are marked by drier mid-level atmospheres and less favorable SST patterns. The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), particularly its westernmost edge in the southeastern Arabian Sea, provides a favorable thermodynamic environment for genesis and exhibits a moderate positive correlation with TC activity. Nevertheless, its influence on interannual variability over the basin is less significant than that of dominant large-scale climate patterns like ENSO and IOD. These findings highlight the critical role of SST-related teleconnections (ENSO, IOD, and IPWP) in regulating Arabian Sea TC activity, offering valuable insights for seasonal forecasting and risk mitigation in vulnerable areas. Full article

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17 pages, 1127 KB

Open AccessSystematic Review

Systematic Review of Multidimensional Assessment of Coastal Infrastructure Resilience to Climate-Induced Flooding: Integrating Structural Vulnerability, System Capacity, and Organizational Preparedness

by Nokulunga Xolile Mashwama and Mbulelo Phesa

Climate 2025, 13(9), 192; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090192 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing the success of government-funded construction projects and addresses the challenges posed by climate-induced flooding, proposing integrated solutions encompassing structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness. By examining the challenges faced by coastal infrastructure, such as aging [...] Read more.

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing the success of government-funded construction projects and addresses the challenges posed by climate-induced flooding, proposing integrated solutions encompassing structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness. By examining the challenges faced by coastal infrastructure, such as aging infrastructure, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events, this research seeks to identify strategies that enhance resilience and minimize the impact of flooding on coastal communities. The study presents a systematic review of 80 scholarly articles integrating quantitative and qualitative findings. Utilizing the PRISMA guidelines, the review highlights structural analysis, hydraulic modeling, and organizational surveys, to assess the resilience of coastal infrastructure systems. The results of this study offer actionable insights for policymakers, infrastructure managers, and coastal communities, facilitating informed decision-making and promoting climate-resilient development. Coastal regions around the world are increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards such as sea level rise, storm surges, and intense flooding events. Among the most at-risk assets are transport infrastructure and buildings, which serve as the backbone of urban and regional functionality. This research paper presents a multidimensional assessment framework that integrates structural vulnerability, system capacity, and organizational preparedness to evaluate the resilience of coastal infrastructure. Drawing upon principles of resilience such as robustness, redundancy, safe-to-fail design, and change-readiness, the study critically reviews and synthesizes existing literature, identifies gaps in current assessment models, and proposes a comprehensive methodology for resilience evaluation. By focusing on both transport systems and building infrastructure, the research aims to inform adaptive strategies and policy interventions that enhance infrastructure performance and continuity under future climate stressors. Full article

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13 pages, 2131 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impacts of Changes in Near-Term Climate Forcers on East Asia’s Climate

by Hyun Min Sung, Jae-Hee Lee, Jisun Kim, Hyomee Lee, Pil-Hun Chang and Kyung-On Boo

Climate 2025, 13(9), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090191 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset [...] Read more.

This study investigates the impacts of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) and ozone precursor emissions on particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in East Asia (EA). Our analysis used the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) dataset to assess the potential changes in air quality under varying emission scenarios for the present day (1995–2014) and near-term future (2015–2054). Present-day PM_2.5 concentrations in EA averaged 14.3 ± 2.6 μg/m³, with significant regional variation: East China (32.43 μg/m³), Korea (13.71 μg/m³), and Japan (7.51 μg/m³). A reduction in historical NTCF emissions would lower PM_2.5 concentrations by approximately 43% across EA, whereas reducing O₃ precursors would yield an approximately 10% decrease. Under the SSP370 scenario, PM_2.5 concentrations are projected to increase by 16% in the near-term future (2045–2054). However, robust NTCF mitigation could reduce PM_2.5 levels by approximately 40%, primarily by decreasing sulfate and organic aerosols, which are the dominant contributors of historical PM_2.5 variability. Despite substantial projected improvements, achieving the World Health Organization’s stringent air quality guidelines remains challenging, highlighting the necessity for enhanced emissions control targeting key pollutant sources. These insights are crucial to East Asian policymakers aiming to implement effective air quality management strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Perspectives in Air Pollution, Climate, and Public Health)

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13 pages, 274 KB

Open AccessReview

A Typology of Climate Obstruction Discourses: Phenomenon, Action, Source

by Marie-Félixe Fortin, Annabelle Olivier, Sarah-Jane Vincent, Naomi Laflamme, Rebecca Soland and Alexandre Gajevic Sayegh

Climate 2025, 13(9), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090190 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing [...] Read more.

Climate inaction has traditionally been attributed to skepticism and denial. However, strategies obstructing climate action have become more nuanced, shifting from direct denial to complex forms of delay. This study presents a typology of discursive strategies of climate obstruction that expands the existing literature while comprehensively classifying tactics that hinder climate action. We argue that climate obstruction better encapsulates the broad strategies used to delay climate action than climate skepticism. Our typology comprises three categories, each distinguished by the target of obstruction. First, Phenomenon Obstruction (Target 1) includes discourses to obstruct the fact that climate change is occurring and human-caused as well as the severity of its impacts. Second, Climate Action Obstruction (Target 2) encompasses discourses targeting solutions to tackle climate change, such as promoting unproven solutions or greenwashing, shifting responsibility, casting doubt on climate policy productivity, looking for policy perfectness, and appealing to cultural and partisan identity to oppose climate action. Last, Source Credibility Obstruction (Target 3) undermines the credibility of climate actors or climate research, pertaining to its method and data as opposed to questioning the existence of the phenomenon itself (Target 1), and casting such actors as conspirators. Based on a review of 138 scholarly publications, this framework equips scholars to analyze how these strategies manifest across political discourse, news media, and social media. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

19 pages, 6770 KB

Open AccessArticle

Neural Network Modelling of Temperature and Salinity in the Venice Lagoon

by Fabio Bozzeda, Marco Sigovini and Piero Lionello

Climate 2025, 13(9), 189; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090189 - 16 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study applies an artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate monthly temperature and salinity variations at three stations in the Venice lagoon, which have been selected to represent different regimes (marine, riverine and intermediate) in terms of relevance of local processes and exchanges [...] Read more.

This study applies an artificial neural network (ANN) to simulate monthly temperature and salinity variations at three stations in the Venice lagoon, which have been selected to represent different regimes (marine, riverine and intermediate) in terms of relevance of local processes and exchanges with the open sea. Four key predictors are shown to play a major role: mean offshore sea level, 2 m air temperature, precipitation for the lagoon water temperature, integrated with offshore sea surface salinity for the lagoon water salinity. The development of the ANN is based on only 4 years of observations, taken irregularly over time with an approximately monthly frequency. Despite this, the ANN achieves an accurate reproduction of both variables with large R² and reasonably small, normalized root-mean-square errors at all stations, except for the salinity at the marine station, where the model presents a spurious variability, which is absent in observations. Sensitivity analysis shows that the 2 m air temperature is the dominant predictor for water temperature while sea-level and sea surface salinity are the principal predictor of salinity fluctuations, with precipitation exerting a relevant role mainly at the riverine station. The ANN has been used for a set of synthetic climate change analyses considering 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels with respect to preindustrial levels. An overall warming of lagoon water with maximum increase in summer is expected (up to 6 °C in the 3 °C global warming level), resulting in an amplification of the annual cycle amplitude. The expected increases in salinity have a strong gradient across the lagoon, are largest at the riverine station, and (analogously to the changes in temperature) amplify the salinity annual cycle amplitude. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Climate Change with Artificial Intelligence Methods)

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14 pages, 4438 KB

Open AccessArticle

Experiences in Developing a Decision Support Tool for Agricultural Decision-Makers—Australian CliMate

by David M. Freebairn and David McClymont

Climate 2025, 13(9), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090188 - 15 Sep 2025

Abstract

Australian agriculture managers deal with climates that are characterised by high variability and unpredictability. A simple framework for decision-making is used to structure weather-related inquiries using recent and long-term climate data to better inform decisions based on current conditions and future expectations. This [...] Read more.

Australian agriculture managers deal with climates that are characterised by high variability and unpredictability. A simple framework for decision-making is used to structure weather-related inquiries using recent and long-term climate data to better inform decisions based on current conditions and future expectations. This paper describes the rationale, design philosophy, and development journey of Australian CliMate (CliMate), a contemporary climate analysis tool built to consolidate and modernise the functionality of earlier computer-based decision support tools (DSTs). CliMate aimed to be simple, transparent, and user-driven, supporting tactical and strategic agricultural decisions. Ten core analyses were included from previous DSTs. With over 20,000 registered users and widespread adoption among farmers, consultants, and other professionals over a decade, CliMate demonstrates the enduring demand for accessible, mobile climate analysis tools. We reflect on lessons learned in the development process, advocating for minimalism, iteration with users, and integration of transparent data sources. This experience underscores the necessity for long-term support and evaluation to sustain the value of agricultural DSTs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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28 pages, 796 KB

Open AccessArticle

Establishment of Transboundary Partnerships in an International Climate Adaptation Project

by Fowzia Gulshana Rashid Lopa and Dan L. Johnson

Climate 2025, 13(9), 187; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090187 - 13 Sep 2025

Abstract

The transboundary partnership encourages multi-stakeholder efforts to mobilize adaptation funding and services for adaptation governance. However, challenges exist in scope, equality, and transparency when engaging these stakeholders. Few studies have examined the detailed coordination among multi-stakeholders and the performance of their partnerships, creating [...] Read more.

The transboundary partnership encourages multi-stakeholder efforts to mobilize adaptation funding and services for adaptation governance. However, challenges exist in scope, equality, and transparency when engaging these stakeholders. Few studies have examined the detailed coordination among multi-stakeholders and the performance of their partnerships, creating an opportunity to understand how multi-stakeholders contribute to and manage efforts for future adaptation projects. This study focused on a transboundary action research project on climate adaptation, analyzing the partnership structure, stakeholder arrangements, coordination scenarios, and the role of the partnership within it. It included interviews with project personnel and focus group discussions with community members at the project sites. The results showed that the project emphasized collaboration while maintaining both vertical and horizontal coordination. The donor maintained vertical coordination for monitoring but collaborated on budget adjustments, funding, identifying challenges, and developing strategies to improve the partnership. Partners continued horizontal coordination by sharing responsibilities and taking leadership roles in synthesizing research reports. Additionally, this project facilitated community participation in piloting the adaptation intervention. Although this partnership aimed to establish collaboration, it remains far from effectively liaising with national-level governments to maximize the benefits of adaptation technology. Future research should expand this scope to promote sustainable development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Development Pathways and Climate Actions)

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22 pages, 357 KB

Open AccessReview

Climate Constitutionalisation in Europe—After KlimaSeniorinnen and the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion

by Christina Eckes

Climate 2025, 13(9), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090186 - 11 Sep 2025

Abstract

Several European courts have vested mitigation obligations with a hierarchically higher legal rank than ordinary state action. They construe these obligations from human rights in combination with international commitments and climate science. This phenomenon is here called ‘climate constitutionalisation’. In addition, we see [...] Read more.

Several European courts have vested mitigation obligations with a hierarchically higher legal rank than ordinary state action. They construe these obligations from human rights in combination with international commitments and climate science. This phenomenon is here called ‘climate constitutionalisation’. In addition, we see an increasing escalation of climate cases to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and we now have the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Climate constitutionalisation in Europe is an incremental process of replication and reiteration. It can only be understood by studying the developing body of national case law in the context European and international law. Studying general emission reduction cases against states in Europe, this paper traces how non-enforceable legal norms, political commitments, and climate science are used to interpret binding and enforceable human rights norms. It reflects on the present and future consequences of the ECtHR’s decision in KlimaSeniorinnen and ICJ’s Advisory Opinion on climate obligations. The paper argues that Europe’s multilayered legal and judicial landscape strengthens climate constitutionalisation and herewith deepens the fault line between the judiciary and the elected institutions. Europe’s openness towards international law facilitates this process. The paper then offers tentative normative justifications for this process. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

19 pages, 8112 KB

Open AccessArticle

Are Internally Displaced People (IDPs) Safe? A Geospatial Analysis of Climate Vulnerability for IDP Communities in Tacloban, Philippines

by Younsung Kim and Colin Chadduck

Climate 2025, 13(9), 185; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090185 - 9 Sep 2025

Abstract

Internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals forced to leave their homes due to conflicts or disasters without crossing international borders. Since 2008, weather-related extreme events—primarily storms and floods—have displaced more than 20 million people annually. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather intensifying, [...] Read more.

Internally displaced people (IDPs) are individuals forced to leave their homes due to conflicts or disasters without crossing international borders. Since 2008, weather-related extreme events—primarily storms and floods—have displaced more than 20 million people annually. With global temperatures rising and extreme weather intensifying, the number of IDPs is projected to increase in the coming decades. In the Philippines, resettlement has emerged as a key climate adaptation strategy, with IDP camps established to reduce risks in highly vulnerable areas. Yet, it remains unclear whether these camps are actually located in regions of lower climate vulnerability. This study aims to examine the climate vulnerability of 17 IDP camps by considering physical and infrastructural dimensions to assess whether they are located in safer areas, and to suggest the development of urban forms that can improve community resilience and the living conditions of their populations. Results show significant variation in climate vulnerability, with Villa Diana scoring the lowest and Villa Sofia the highest. Using emergency response facilities as a proxy for social capital, we identified drivers of vulnerability: Villa Sofia faces heightened risks due to population density, flood exposure, and limited emergency facilities, while Villa Diana benefits from greater emergency capacity and abundant vegetation that reduces risk. Our findings provide a systematic framework for assessing climate vulnerability among IDPs and highlight the critical role of social capital in mitigating climate impacts for displaced populations in the Global South, where climate risk mapping and reliable data remain limited. Full article

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21 pages, 7053 KB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonal Regime Shifts and Warming Trends in the Universal Thermal Climate Index over the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas (1940–2024)

by Gabriel I. Cotlier and Juan Carlos Jimenez

Climate 2025, 13(9), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090184 - 6 Sep 2025

Abstract

This study investigates long-term changes in thermal comfort across the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas from 1940 to 2024, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis. We apply a dual analytical framework combining structural break detection to identify regime shifts [...] Read more.

This study investigates long-term changes in thermal comfort across the Italian and Iberian Peninsulas from 1940 to 2024, using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis. We apply a dual analytical framework combining structural break detection to identify regime shifts and Sen’s slope estimation with confidence intervals to quantify monotonic trends. Results reveal pronounced seasonal asymmetries. Summer exhibits abrupt regime shifts in both regions: in 1980 for Italy (slope shifting from −0.039 °C/year before 1980 to +0.06 °C/year after) and 1978 for Iberia (from −0.054 °C/year to +0.050 °C/year). Winter, by contrast, shows no structural breaks but a persistent, spatially uniform warming trend of ~0.030–0.033 °C/year across the 1940–2024 period, consistent with a gradual erosion of cold stress. Transitional seasons display more nuanced responses. Spring reveals detectable breakpoints in 1987 for Italy (shifting from −0.028 °C/year to +0.027 °C/year) and 1986 for Iberia (from −0.047 °C/year to +0.024 °C/year), indicating the early acceleration of warming. Autumn shows a breakpoint in 1970 for Italy, with trends intensifying from +0.011 °C/year before to +0.052 °C/year after, while Iberia exhibits no clear breakpoint but a consistent positive slope. These findings highlight spring as an early-warning season, where warming acceleration first emerges, and autumn as a consolidating phase that extends summer-like heat into later months. Overall, the results demonstrate that Mediterranean thermal regimes evolve through both abrupt and gradual processes, with summer defined by non-linear regime shifts, winter by steady accumulation of warming, and spring and autumn by transitional dynamics that bridge these extremes. The methodological integration of breakpoint detection with Sen’s slope estimation provides a transferable framework for detecting climate regime transitions in other vulnerable regions under accelerated global warming. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Importance of Long Climate Records (Second Edition))

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19 pages, 6756 KB

Open AccessArticle

Future Meteorological Impact on Air Quality in the Po Valley

by Loris Colombo, Alessandro Marongiu, Giulia Malvestiti and Guido Giuseppe Lanzani

Climate 2025, 13(9), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090183 - 5 Sep 2025

Abstract

Air quality in the Po Valley (Northern Italy), one of Europe’s most polluted regions, remains a major concern due to its unfavorable orographic setting and intense anthropogenic emissions. Climate change may further hinder progress by modifying meteorological conditions that regulate pollutant dispersion and [...] Read more.

Air quality in the Po Valley (Northern Italy), one of Europe’s most polluted regions, remains a major concern due to its unfavorable orographic setting and intense anthropogenic emissions. Climate change may further hinder progress by modifying meteorological conditions that regulate pollutant dispersion and chemistry. This study applies a modeling framework combining regional climate simulations and chemical transport models to assess the climate penalty, i.e., the adverse impact of climate-driven meteorology on air quality independent of emissions. Three scenarios were analyzed: Baseline Reference Scenario (SRB) (2011–2015), Near-Future Medium Scenario (NF) (2028–2032), and Mid-Future Medium Scenario (2048–2052), with emissions held constant. A mitigation scenario (SC_MF_2050) under the Current Legislation was also tested to accomplish the new EU Ambient Air Quality Directive. Results show that PM₁₀ and NO₂ increase under future climates, mainly due to reduced wind speed and precipitation, enhancing pollutant accumulation. Multivariate analyses confirm the strong association between stagnant conditions and higher concentrations. Even with projected emission reductions, compliance with stricter EU targets may not be achieved everywhere. Climate penalty zones, especially in lowland and transport corridors, underscore the need to integrate climate resilience into air quality planning and adopt adaptive strategies for long-term effectiveness. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Meteorological Forecasting and Modeling in Climatology)

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21 pages, 3538 KB

Open AccessArticle

Reconstruction of Water Storage Variability in the Aral Sea Region

by Nikita Murzintcev, Sahibjamal Nietullaeva, Timur Berdimbetov, Buddhi Pushpawela, Asiya Tureniyazova, Sherly Shelton, Bakbergen Aytmuratov, Khusen Gafforov, Kanat Parakhatov, Alimjan Erdashov, Abdul-Aziz Makhamatdinov and Timur Allamuratov

Climate 2025, 13(9), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090182 - 29 Aug 2025

Abstract

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, operational from 2002 to 2017, provided critical measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies which have been extensively used to study groundwater and terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics. In this research, we utilize GRACE data to [...] Read more.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, operational from 2002 to 2017, provided critical measurements of Earth’s gravity field anomalies which have been extensively used to study groundwater and terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics. In this research, we utilize GRACE data to identify, model, and analyze potential climate parameters contributing to the reconstruction of TWS variability in the Aral Sea Basin region (ASB). We assess the impact of climate change and anthropogenic nature management on TWS change using a quantitative method. Our analysis reveals a significant decline in the TWS at a rate of 0.44 cm year⁻¹ during the 2005–2009 period, primarily attributed to the prevailing drought conditions in the region. Notably, the estimated impact of anthropogenic influence on TWS during the same period of −1.39 cm year⁻¹ is higher than the influence of climatic variables, indicating that anthropogenic activity was the dominant factor in water resource depletion. In contrast, we observed an increase in TWS at a rate of 0.82 cm year⁻¹ during the 2013–2017 period, which can be attributed to the implementation of more effective water resource management practices in the ASB. Full article

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30 pages, 68660 KB

Open AccessArticle

Optimizing WRF Configurations for Improved Precipitation Forecasting in West Africa: Sensitivity to Cumulus and PBL Schemes in a Senegal Case Study

by Abdou Aziz Coly, Emmanuel Dazangwende Poan, Youssouph Sane, Habib Senghor, Semou Diouf, Ousmane Ndiaye, Abdoulaye Deme and Dame Gueye

Climate 2025, 13(9), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090181 - 29 Aug 2025

Abstract

Despite significant progress, precipitation forecasting in West Africa remains challenging due to the complexity of atmospheric processes and the region’s climatic variability. This study aims to identify optimal configurations of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting. To evaluate the sensitivity of the [...] Read more.

Despite significant progress, precipitation forecasting in West Africa remains challenging due to the complexity of atmospheric processes and the region’s climatic variability. This study aims to identify optimal configurations of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting. To evaluate the sensitivity of the model’s physical parameterizations, 15 configurations were tested by combining various cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. The analysis examines two contrasting rainfall events in Senegal: one characterized by widespread intense precipitation and another featuring localized moderate rainfall. Simulated rainfall, temperature, and humidity were validated against rain gauges, satellite products (ENACTS, ARC2, CHIRPS, and IMERG), and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that the WRF configurations achieve correlation coefficients (r) ranging from 0.27 to 0.62 against ENACTS and from 0.15 to 0.41 against rain gauges. The sensitivity analysis reveals that PBL schemes primarily influence temperature and humidity, while CPSs significantly affect precipitation. For the heavy rainfall event, several configurations accurately captured the observed patterns, particularly those using Tiedtke or Grell–Devenyi CPSs coupled with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) PBL. However, the model showed limited skill in simulating localized convection during the moderate rainfall event. These findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate parameterizations to enhance WRF-based precipitation forecasting, especially for extreme weather events in West Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Meteorological Forecasting and Modeling in Climatology)

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21 pages, 1050 KB

Open AccessReview

The Perceptions of Rural Australians Concerning the Health Impacts of Extreme Weather Events: A Scoping Review

by Emily Vohralik, Jonathan Mond, I. Nyoman Sutarsa, Sally Hall Dykgraaf, Breanna Humber and Sari Dewi

Climate 2025, 13(9), 180; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13090180 - 28 Aug 2025

Abstract

Understanding rural communities’ perceptions of the health impacts of extreme weather is vital for strengthening community resilience and adaptation strategies. This paper aimed to collate existing evidence on the perceptions of rural Australians regarding the health impacts of extreme weather events. A scoping [...] Read more.

Understanding rural communities’ perceptions of the health impacts of extreme weather is vital for strengthening community resilience and adaptation strategies. This paper aimed to collate existing evidence on the perceptions of rural Australians regarding the health impacts of extreme weather events. A scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines was conducted. Peer-reviewed empirical articles published up to 7 May 2025 were identified from Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science. One author undertook two-step screening and data extraction, which was checked by another author, and data were analysed using a thematic approach. Of 242 non-duplicate articles screened, 34 were included, which discussed drought (n = 14), bushfire (n = 8), flood (n = 6), extreme heat (n = 4) or a combination of events (n = 2). Two main themes arose: (1) perceived severity, frequency and duration of extreme weather events; and (2) perceptions of health impacts. The second theme comprised six subthemes: mental health risks, social disconnectedness, disrupted connection to land, distress due to uncertainties, community resilience, and disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups. Evidence gaps included a lack of perspectives separated by gender and age and a shortage of voices of socio-economically disadvantaged groups. Future research should investigate how to understand rural communities’ resilience to develop targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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