Economies

35 pages, 1660 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Resilience and Asset Pricing in COVID-19 Disaster

by Elham Daadmehr

Economies 2025, 13(5), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050123 - 1 May 2025

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The COVID-19 pandemic potentially affected stock prices in two non-mutually exclusive ways: discount rates and cash flows. This paper focuses on the latter and analyzes it through the lens of an asset-pricing model. It shows how workplace resilience and financial resilience interacted and [...] Read more.

The COVID-19 pandemic potentially affected stock prices in two non-mutually exclusive ways: discount rates and cash flows. This paper focuses on the latter and analyzes it through the lens of an asset-pricing model. It shows how workplace resilience and financial resilience interacted and significantly affected asset prices. The model-based equity premium increases with the probability of a disaster. The results suggest the significant amplification of workplace resilience by financial resilience. Specifically, the dividend growth of low-resilience firms is significantly more responsive to workplace flexibility and suffers more severely than that of high-resilience firms. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics after the COVID-19)

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11 pages, 1068 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A General Equilibrium Model with Real Exchange Rates

by Leonardo Tariffi

Economies 2025, 13(5), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050122 - 1 May 2025

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Abstract

In this paper, the Balassa–Samuelson–Tariffi effect is revisited. This research first aims to explain that the behaviour of the real exchange rate shows structural breaks in the short term. A partial equilibrium model “á la Rogoff” is formally formulated where there are relative [...] Read more.

In this paper, the Balassa–Samuelson–Tariffi effect is revisited. This research first aims to explain that the behaviour of the real exchange rate shows structural breaks in the short term. A partial equilibrium model “á la Rogoff” is formally formulated where there are relative prices of non-tradable goods in terms of tradable goods in the supply side. Secondly, a general equilibrium model is built after a utility function is added to the partial equilibrium model. It is presented as a mathematical mechanism that shows a stationary state in the real exchange rate considering not only non-tradable goods but also tradable goods both in the domestic market and the foreign market. It is explained that any change in a currency’s price in terms of another currency in real terms is transitory in the long run, thereby disappearing after a certain period of time. In the general equilibrium model, any price’s change in non-tradable goods will be compensated by either a price’s change in tradable goods or changes in the nominal exchange rate. Therefore, this study’s main contribution is to show theoretically that the real exchange rate is constant over time in the long run. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Exchange Rates: Drivers, Dynamics, Impacts, and Policies)

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20 pages, 330 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Financial Stability: Evidence from MENA and African Countries Analyzed Using Hierarchical Multiple Regression

by Fadoua Joudar and Omar El Ghmari

Economies 2025, 13(5), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050121 - 28 Apr 2025

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Abstract

The link between financial inclusion and financial stability is a central concern in public economic policymaking, particularly in emerging countries where access to financial services remains limited. While financial inclusion is widely regarded as a key driver of economic development, its impact on [...] Read more.

The link between financial inclusion and financial stability is a central concern in public economic policymaking, particularly in emerging countries where access to financial services remains limited. While financial inclusion is widely regarded as a key driver of economic development, its impact on financial stability remains debated. Some studies highlight the stabilizing effect of financial inclusion, whereas others, like emphasize its potential risks. This study empirically investigates the relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability across the years 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 in 26 African and MENA countries. The hierarchical multiple regression (HMR) method is employed to assess the independent effect of financial inclusion, controlling for macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal that financial inclusion positively contributes to financial stability through channels such as digital payments and the number of bank branches. Conversely, savings, the number of ATMs, and the money supply exhibit a negative effect on financial stability. These results underscore the need for a regulatory framework that balances financial inclusion with financial stability. In particular, cybersecurity measures must be implemented to support the expansion of digital payments, and supervisory mechanisms should be reinforced to mitigate liquidity risks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)

23 pages, 1001 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Logistic Service Improvement Parameters for Postal Service Providers Using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Quality Function Deployment

by Nisa James, Anish K. P. Kumar and Robert Jeyakumar Nathan

Economies 2025, 13(5), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050120 - 28 Apr 2025

Viewed by 197

Abstract

Postal services have re-emerged across numerous emerging economies worldwide as essential logistics providers, harnessing their vast coverage and dependability in the face of expanding e-commerce platforms and technological innovations. This study investigates India Post, one of the largest postal networks globally, to determine [...] Read more.

Postal services have re-emerged across numerous emerging economies worldwide as essential logistics providers, harnessing their vast coverage and dependability in the face of expanding e-commerce platforms and technological innovations. This study investigates India Post, one of the largest postal networks globally, to determine the key logistics service parameters prioritized by customers in southern India. Quantitative data obtained from 255 India Post end-users were evaluated using the logistics service quality (LSQ) scale, assessing eight dimensions including information quality, timeliness, ordering procedure, order accuracy, order condition, personal contact quality, order discrepancy handling, and order release quantities. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) ranked these elements, while Quality Function Deployment (QFD) bridged customer expectations with service improvements. The findings highlight the need to improve sorting and distribution processes to meet customer demands for timely, high-quality delivery. By refining logistics efficiency, this study provides suggestions and recommendations for boosting satisfaction and profitability, shedding light on service-led economic advancement for postal services in emerging economies. These insights equip postal service providers to cultivate loyalty and maintain competitiveness within the dynamic logistics landscape. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Asian Economy: Constraints and Opportunities)

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21 pages, 316 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure in Sub Saharan Africa: The Role of Government and External Health Expenditures

by Tewa Papy Voto and Nicholas Ngepah

Economies 2025, 13(5), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050119 - 24 Apr 2025

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of government and external health spending on OOPHE across 30 SSA countries from 1995 to 2021. Using advanced econometric techniques, including the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed Lags (CS-ARDL) model and the dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) [...] Read more.

This study aims to analyze the impact of government and external health spending on OOPHE across 30 SSA countries from 1995 to 2021. Using advanced econometric techniques, including the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed Lags (CS-ARDL) model and the dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) approach, the study examined both short-term and long-term effects. Findings reveal that in the long term, government health expenditure (GHE) has a more significant impact on reducing OOPHE compared to external health expenditure (EHE). However, in the short term, GHE initially increases OOPHE, while EHE directly reduces it. This suggests that increasing GHE is more effective for long-term progress towards SDG 3. In contrast, EHE can provide immediate relief in the short term. To achieve SDG 3, policymakers should focus on increasing GHE for sustained improvements while leveraging EHE to address short-term challenges. Combining both strategies can optimize progress toward ensuring universal health coverage and well-being for all. Full article

21 pages, 2829 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Energy Efficiency, Consumption, and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis in the South African Economy

by Enock Gava, Molepa Seabela and Kanayo Ogujiuba

Economies 2025, 13(5), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050118 - 23 Apr 2025

Viewed by 295

Abstract

Energy efficiency potentially reduces global carbon emissions, whereas the need of emerging countries to maintain economic growth and development entails a sharp increase in energy consumption. However, to meet this, current energy systems need to be transformed. Several studies find different conclusions on [...] Read more.

Energy efficiency potentially reduces global carbon emissions, whereas the need of emerging countries to maintain economic growth and development entails a sharp increase in energy consumption. However, to meet this, current energy systems need to be transformed. Several studies find different conclusions on the short-run and long-run relationship and the direction of causality, and none of the studies have considered energy efficiency in their model. This study investigates the direction of causality between energy efficiency, energy consumption, and economic growth in South Africa. To determine if a long-run relationship between the variables exists, the Johanson cointegration test is used, and the results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between economic growth, energy depletion, energy efficiency, non-renewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and energy security, with trace statistics suggesting that the null hypothesis of no cointegration should be rejected at a 5% level of significance. The Toda and Yamamoto procedure of the Granger causality approach was then applied. This study finds a unidirectional causality between energy efficiency, non-renewable energy consumption, and economic growth and no causality between renewable energy consumption, energy depletion, energy security, and economic growth. The growth hypothesis is supported, while the neutrality hypothesis is only confirmed regarding renewable energy consumption and economic growth. The results further suggest that a unidirectional Granger causality exists between non-renewable consumption and energy efficiency, and economic growth in South Africa. In South Africa, energy efficiency is a significant tool to enhance sustainable growth and attain climate objectives. Also, energy efficiency helps to lower the costs of mitigating carbon emissions and further advance both social and economic development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Consumption, Financial Development and Economic Growth)

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27 pages, 395 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Determinants of Value-Added Tax Revenue Transfers in Municipalities of Emerging Economies

by Brahim Abidar, Slimane Ed-Dafali and Miloudi Kobiyh

Economies 2025, 13(5), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050117 - 23 Apr 2025

Viewed by 213

Abstract

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of the existence of significant tax competition between communes, which mainly concerns the share of value-added tax (VAT) proceeds, by exploring the system for allocating intergovernmental transfers in Morocco and analyzing the determinants of VAT transfers [...] Read more.

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of the existence of significant tax competition between communes, which mainly concerns the share of value-added tax (VAT) proceeds, by exploring the system for allocating intergovernmental transfers in Morocco and analyzing the determinants of VAT transfers to local authorities. It contributes to fiscal federalism by assessing the design of the decentralized system and intergovernmental transfers. It aims to explore and understand the variables determining decentralization in Moroccan Municipalities over the period 2014–2018, based on institutional, budgetary, and political justifications, as well as their influence on local tax efficiency, highlighting the importance of intergovernmental transfers and their impacts on local government autonomy. We find that VAT revenue transfer antecedents include factors such as public expenditure, fiscal potential, tax effort, and political alignment. The results of this study can help better understand the relationship between VAT and economic variables and guide government tax policies in an emerging economy. This paper offers original perspectives on the importance of an informed vision for government decision-makers to develop effective tax policies considering stringent local budget constraints, the need for VAT revenue autonomy across levels of government, and the need for meeting the redistributive goals of the current VAT system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Growth, Corruption, and Financial Development)

25 pages, 563 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effect of COVID-19 on Catastrophic Medical Spending and Forgone Care in Nigeria

by Henry Chukwuemeka Edeh, Alexander Uchenna Nnamani and Jane Oluchukwu Ozor

Economies 2025, 13(5), 116; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050116 - 22 Apr 2025

Viewed by 239

Abstract

In this study, we provide the first estimates of the effect of COVID-19 (COVID-19 legal restrictions) on catastrophic medical expenditure and forgone medical care in Africa. Data for this study were drawn from the 2018/19 Nigeria General Household Survey (NGHS) panel and the [...] Read more.

In this study, we provide the first estimates of the effect of COVID-19 (COVID-19 legal restrictions) on catastrophic medical expenditure and forgone medical care in Africa. Data for this study were drawn from the 2018/19 Nigeria General Household Survey (NGHS) panel and the 2020/21 Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey panel (COVID-19 NLPS). The 2020/21 COVID-19 panel survey sample was drawn from the 2018/19 NGHS panel sample monitoring the same households. Hence, we leveraged a rich set of pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 panel household surveys that can be merged to track the effect of the pandemic on welfare outcomes. We found that the COVID-19 legal restrictions decreased catastrophic medical expenditure (measured by out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures exceeding 10% of total household expenditure). However, the COVID-19 legal restrictions increased the incidences of forgone medical care. The results showed a consistent positive effect on forgone medical care across waves one and two, corresponding to full and partial implementation of COVID-19 legal restrictions, respectively. However, the negative effect on catastrophic medical spending was only observed when the COVID-19 legal restrictions were fully in force, but the sign reversed when the restriction enforcement became partial. Moreover, our panel regression analyses revealed that having health insurance is associated with a reduced probability of incurring CHE and forgoing medical care relative to having no health insurance. We suggest that better policy design in terms of expanding the depth and coverage of health insurance will broaden access to quality healthcare services during and beyond the pandemic periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

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15 pages, 254 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Mortality from Non-Communicable Diseases: Evidence from Azerbaijan

by Mayis Gulaliyev, Masim Abadov, Vugar Gapagov, Irada Mehdiyeva and Jeyhun Mahmudov

Economies 2025, 13(5), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050115 - 22 Apr 2025

Viewed by 205

Abstract

The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30–70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged Employment, Human Development [...] Read more.

The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30–70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged Employment, Human Development Index, and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The Error Correction Model coefficient (−0.724701) implies that the system adjusts back to equilibrium at a rate of 72.47% per period, highlighting a strong corrective mechanism. Additionally, in the short run, GDP, HDI, wage employment, and out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly influence mortality rates. The model’s statistical diagnostics confirm its robustness, and the results align with economic theory, reinforcing their validity and policy relevance. According to the conclusion of this research, we suggest the enhancement of the HDI and Employment, control out-of-pocket expenditures, and increase Government Healthcare Spending to significantly reduce mortality rates. This study emphasizes that enhancing social determinants like the HDI, Waged Employment, and accessible healthcare services is crucial for reducing mortality rates of NCDs. While Azerbaijan’s economic growth has improved living standards, further efforts are necessary to improve healthcare investments and reduce inequalities in health outcomes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Health Economics)

20 pages, 804 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Do Non-Cognitive Skills Produce Heterogeneous Returns Across Different Wage Levels Amongst Youth Entering the Workforce? A Quantile Mixed Model Approach

by Garen Avanesian

Economies 2025, 13(5), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13050114 - 22 Apr 2025

Viewed by 217

Abstract

This study estimates the labor market returns to non-cognitive skills among the youth under 30 years old during the early career stage. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) for 2016 and 2019, it examines the effects of the Big Five [...] Read more.

This study estimates the labor market returns to non-cognitive skills among the youth under 30 years old during the early career stage. Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) for 2016 and 2019, it examines the effects of the Big Five personality traits (openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and emotional stability) on hourly wages. To account for potential heterogeneity in the effect of non-cognitive skills along the wage distribution, a quantile linear mixed model is employed, estimating returns at the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles while controlling for repeated observations with random intercepts at the individual level. Inverse probability weighting is applied to address the selection of employment. The results indicate that openness yields the highest returns for young workers, though its effect diminishes after controlling for educational attainment. By controlling for education, the model identifies the effect of conscientiousness below the median wage level, and that of extraversion above. Finally, the study finds that the impact of non-cognitive skills on wages evolves over the life course. First, the effects of non-cognitive skills on wages vary a lot in the youth group and the entire working population (ages 16–65). Furthermore, breaking the data down by age cohorts reveals how their significance and magnitude shift at different career stages. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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Economies, Volume 13, Issue 5 (May 2025) – 10 articles

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