Economies

31 pages, 1487 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Public Debt Encourage Economic Growth? An Application of Quantile Regressions to Panel Data for Developing Countries

by Yohanes Maria Vianey Mudayen, Lincolin Arsyad, Rimawan Pradiptyo and Sekar Utami Setiastuti

Economies 2025, 13(4), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040113 - 21 Apr 2025

Viewed by 356

Abstract

Previous studies on the relationship between government debt and economic growth have produced very diverse findings. This study examines the relationship between public debt and economic growth in developing countries using a quantile regression approach with fixed effects and bootstrapping on the 10% [...] Read more.

Previous studies on the relationship between government debt and economic growth have produced very diverse findings. This study examines the relationship between public debt and economic growth in developing countries using a quantile regression approach with fixed effects and bootstrapping on the 10% to 90% quantile distribution. The quantile grouping is based on specific percentiles of economic growth in developing countries. This study uses panel data from 127 developing countries for the period 2012 to 2019. Data were obtained from the World Development Indicators, the World Bank, and Transparency International. The results of this study indicate that public debt is not friendly to economic growth. Public debt actually hinders economic growth in developing countries, especially in the 30% to 90% quantile. Other factors that influence economic growth in developing countries are trade, inflation rates, government spending, corruption, and net foreign direct investment. Trade and net direct investment significantly increase economic growth in developing countries. Meanwhile, public debt, the inflation rate, government spending, and corruption actually inhibit economic growth in developing countries. On the other hand, education spending, private debt, tax revenues, and labor force participation do not contribute significantly to economic growth in developing countries. These findings confirm that public debt governance and governance are very important in driving economic growth in developing countries. This paper provides empirical and policy contributions to the assessment of institutional effectiveness in relation to the impact of public debt management on economic growth in developing countries. Full article

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15 pages, 251 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Settlement Intention of Foreign Workers in Japan: Bayesian Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis

by Mi Moe Thuzar, Shyam Kumar Karki, Andi Holik Ramdani, Waode Hanifah Istiqomah, Tokiko Inoue and Chukiat Chaiboonsri

Economies 2025, 13(4), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040112 - 17 Apr 2025

Viewed by 267

Abstract

This study examines the intentions of foreign workers living in Okayama, Japan, to stay long-term in Japan. Utilizing a Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model, this research provides a novel analytical approach that captures parameter uncertainty and accommodates the categorical nature of migrants’ settlement [...] Read more.

This study examines the intentions of foreign workers living in Okayama, Japan, to stay long-term in Japan. Utilizing a Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model, this research provides a novel analytical approach that captures parameter uncertainty and accommodates the categorical nature of migrants’ settlement intentions using primary data collected via a questionnaire survey from January to March 2024. The findings reveal that residence status, previous experience of living in Japan, and graduation from a Japanese education institution significantly influence long-term settlement intentions. In addition, respondents aged 26–35 intend to stay longer than those of other ages, and those from less developed countries, such as Myanmar and Vietnam, intend to stay longer than those from China. Conversely, highly educated migrants express lower settlement intentions, suggesting a potential loss of skilled foreign labor in Japan. Notably, migrants in the Technical Intern Training Program are more likely to stay longer than those with other residence statuses, such as Highly Skilled Professional. In contrast, workers with higher education levels tend to have less intention to stay long-term, indicating a high probability of Japan losing educated foreign labor in the future. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of migrant workers in Japan, which is crucial for creating policies for foreign workers that can attract and support long-term settlement. These findings have important implications for policy, particularly in enhancing community integration, reducing workplace discrimination, and designing residence pathways that support long-term retention. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of Migration)

21 pages, 600 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Firm’s Performance—Empirical Analysis from Türkiye

by Orkhan Ibrahimov, László Vancsura and Anett Parádi-Dolgos

Economies 2025, 13(4), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040111 - 17 Apr 2025

Viewed by 395

Abstract

Measuring financial performance is pivotal not only for assessing a firm’s current health but also for informing strategic decisions that shape its long-term trajectory. This study investigates how macroeconomic volatility affects the firm profitability across five major sectors in Türkiye—industrial manufacturing, food, beverage [...] Read more.

Measuring financial performance is pivotal not only for assessing a firm’s current health but also for informing strategic decisions that shape its long-term trajectory. This study investigates how macroeconomic volatility affects the firm profitability across five major sectors in Türkiye—industrial manufacturing, food, beverage and tobacco, chemicals and plastics, technology, and energy—during the turbulent period from 2016 to 2023. Using return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as performance indicators, we apply panel data regression to test the impact of inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and a novel Macroeconomic Stress Index (MSI), which combines inflation and exchange rate volatility. The results reveal significant sectoral differences: firms in chemicals and manufacturing outperformed others in ROA, likely benefiting from export incentives and scale efficiencies, while energy and food sectors underperformed, constrained by regulations and cost rigidity. Notably, MSI showed a consistent and significant positive effect on both ROA and ROE, suggesting that many firms responded to macroeconomic stress by restructuring operations and improving efficiency. In contrast, interest rates had a strong negative effect on profitability, confirming the sensitivity of firms to financing costs. These findings underscore the need for targeted sector-level policy support and highlight the importance of internal adaptive capabilities in maintaining the firm’s performance under sustained economic stress. Full article

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41 pages, 493 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Quest for Innovation Drivers with Autometrics: Do These Differ Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic for European Economies?

by Jorge Marques, Carlos Santos and Maria Alberta Oliveira

Economies 2025, 13(4), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040110 - 15 Apr 2025

Viewed by 550

Abstract

The literature regarding innovation drivers is usually based on variables taken from some theoretical approach and validated within a methodology. Some authors have included COVID-19 as a driver for innovations. In this paper, we address the pandemic from a different viewpoint: trying to [...] Read more.

The literature regarding innovation drivers is usually based on variables taken from some theoretical approach and validated within a methodology. Some authors have included COVID-19 as a driver for innovations. In this paper, we address the pandemic from a different viewpoint: trying to find if innovation drivers for European countries are the same in pre- and post-pandemic years. The automated general-to-specific model selection algorithm—Autometrics—is used. The main potentially relevant drivers for which data were available for both years and two proxies of innovation (patents and the Summary Innovation Index) were considered. The final models provided by Autometrics allow for valid inference on retained innovation drivers since they have passed a plethora of diagnostic tests, ensuring congruency. The attractiveness of the research system is the most impactful driver on the index in both years but other drivers indeed differ. SMEs’ business process innovation and their cooperation networks matter only in 2022. We found crowding-out effects of public funding of R&D (in both years, for the index). Sustainability was a driver in both periods. The ranking of common drivers also changes. Non-R&D innovation expenditures, the second most relevant before COVID-19, concedes to digitalization. Surprisingly, when patents are the proxy, digitalization is retained before COVID-19, with the attractiveness of the research system replacing it afterwards. Explanations for our findings are suggested. The main implications of our findings for innovation policy seem to be the facilitating role that the government should have in fostering linkages between stakeholders and the capacity the government might have to improve the attractiveness of the research system. Policies based on the public funding of R&D appear ineffective for European countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics after the COVID-19)

16 pages, 425 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Inflation Targeting Reduce Economic Uncertainty? Evidence from Mexico

by Domicio Cano-Espinosa

Economies 2025, 13(4), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040109 - 15 Apr 2025

Viewed by 270

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic performance in Mexico using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) and bivariate GARCH-in-mean (BGARCH-M) models. Based on monthly data from 1995 to 2019, the analysis estimates nominal uncertainty and evaluates its [...] Read more.

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic performance in Mexico using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) and bivariate GARCH-in-mean (BGARCH-M) models. Based on monthly data from 1995 to 2019, the analysis estimates nominal uncertainty and evaluates its macroeconomic implications under Mexico’s inflation-targeting regime. The results indicate a significant and positive link between past inflation and future uncertainty, underscoring the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation to contain volatility. Furthermore, inflation uncertainty is found to exert a negative influence on economic performance, particularly in terms of output variability. However, the study does not find conclusive evidence that inflation uncertainty declined following the formal adoption of inflation targeting. These findings suggest that, while Mexico has achieved price stability, inflation uncertainty remains sensitive to external shocks and policy credibility. The study contributes to the broader literature by reassessing the effectiveness of inflation targeting in an increasingly globalized and volatile environment, offering important lessons for emerging economies managing external vulnerabilities and institutional constraints. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Monetary Policy and Central Banking: Challenges in the Current Environment)

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21 pages, 2355 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Macroeconomic Determinants of the Interest Rate Term Structure: A Svensson Model Analysis

by Cristiane Benetti, José Monteiro Varanda Neto and Rogério Mori

Economies 2025, 13(4), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040108 - 15 Apr 2025

Viewed by 202

Abstract

This study develops a model to predict and explain short-term fluctuations in the Brazilian local currency interest rate term structure. The model relies on the potential relationship between these movements and key macroeconomic factors. The methodology consists of two stages. First, the Svensson [...] Read more.

This study develops a model to predict and explain short-term fluctuations in the Brazilian local currency interest rate term structure. The model relies on the potential relationship between these movements and key macroeconomic factors. The methodology consists of two stages. First, the Svensson model is applied to fit the daily yield curve data. This involves maximizing the R² statistic in an OLS regression, following the Nelson–Siegel approach. The median decay parameters are then fixed for subsequent estimations. In the second stage, with the daily yield curve estimates in hand, another OLS regression is conducted. This regression incorporates the idea that Svensson’s betas are influenced by macroeconomic variables. Full article

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27 pages, 413 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Empowerment Through Entrepreneurship: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Social Grants and Economic Sufficiency

by Thobeka Ncanywa, Ntsika Dyantyi and Abiola John Asaleye

Economies 2025, 13(4), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040107 - 11 Apr 2025

Viewed by 398

Abstract

Entrepreneurship is crucial in promoting innovation, job creation, and poverty alleviation, particularly in developing economies. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine macroeconomic factors’ impact on entrepreneurial activity. The quantitative analysis utilises fully modified least squares and [...] Read more.

Entrepreneurship is crucial in promoting innovation, job creation, and poverty alleviation, particularly in developing economies. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach, using quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine macroeconomic factors’ impact on entrepreneurial activity. The quantitative analysis utilises fully modified least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares to estimate long-run relationships, while the qualitative component applies thematic analysis to assess the role of school-based gardening initiatives in promoting students’ economic participation. Our findings indicate that government expenditure on education significantly enhances entrepreneurship, whereas access to credit remains ineffective, suggesting persistent barriers in financial intermediation. Labour force participation shows a positive relationship with entrepreneurship, supporting the idea that a more engaged labour force promotes business creation. The findings also show a negative impact of regulatory quality on entrepreneurship, stressing the need for regulatory reforms to reduce entry barriers. While technology adoption has a delayed effect, long-term investments in digital infrastructure are recommended. At the micro-level, school-based entrepreneurship programs, such as vegetable gardening, cultivate entrepreneurial skills, though sustainability depends on consistent support and resources. Based on these findings, this study suggests the need to enhance education, improve access to finance, and streamline regulatory frameworks to promote entrepreneurship. Full article

14 pages, 261 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Corruption on Economic Growth in SADC

by Darlington Chizema, Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu and Christelle Meniago

Economies 2025, 13(4), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040106 - 10 Apr 2025

Viewed by 1045

Abstract

This study analyses the long-term impacts of corruption on economic growth within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, using data spanning 2005 to 2022. Through econometric modelling covering SADC countries, the research investigates the influence of corruption on the economic performance of [...] Read more.

This study analyses the long-term impacts of corruption on economic growth within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, using data spanning 2005 to 2022. Through econometric modelling covering SADC countries, the research investigates the influence of corruption on the economic performance of the region. Employing descriptive statistics, panel unit root tests, and the autoregressive distributed lag pooled mean group model, the findings demonstrate that corruption, human capital, gross capital formation, trade openness, and government effectiveness significantly affect economic growth, whereas foreign direct investment does not. Corruption is believed to hinder economic progress by contributing to inefficient resource distribution, emphasising the need for robust anti-corruption strategies. Besides targeted anti-corruption measures, the research advises broader approaches such as enhancing institutional abilities, promoting transparency and accountability, and encouraging international cooperation. Advancing regional integration and leveraging technology to monitor and report corruption are also crucial. Moreover, promoting trade openness and human capital development can enhance economic growth. These comprehensive approaches aim to create a more transparent and efficient setting, ultimately boosting SADC’s economic growth. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Growth, Corruption, and Financial Development)

22 pages, 936 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Importance of Investing in the First 1000 Days of Life: Evidence and Policy Options

by Lydia Kemunto Onsomu and Haron Ng’eno

Economies 2025, 13(4), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040105 - 8 Apr 2025

Viewed by 337

Abstract

The first 1000 days of life starts from conception to a child’s second birthday. Research suggests that the period is critical for cognitive, physical, and emotional development. Investments in maternal and child healthcare during this period have a profound impact on long-term health, [...] Read more.

The first 1000 days of life starts from conception to a child’s second birthday. Research suggests that the period is critical for cognitive, physical, and emotional development. Investments in maternal and child healthcare during this period have a profound impact on long-term health, educational attainment, and economic productivity. This study examined the impact of such investments on child health outcomes in Kenya, using data from the 2015/2016 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS). Key areas of focus included maternal healthcare, early antenatal care, skilled delivery, exclusive breastfeeding, proper weaning practices, immunization, and the timely treatment of childhood illnesses. Using the Cox regression hazard model, the study revealed that twins faced a higher risk of mortality compared to single births, while firstborns were less likely to die before their fifth birthday; larger household sizes were associated with reduced child mortality, and children in female-headed households had a lower likelihood of dying, likely due to better adherence to proper health and nutritional practices. Maternal health conditions, the place of delivery, and assistance during childbirth significantly influenced survival, with government health facility deliveries yielding better outcomes than homebirths. This study emphasizes the importance of educating pregnant women and mothers on health risks and public health protocols during this critical period. Strengthening healthcare systems and promoting equitable access to essential services during the first 1000 days could improve child survival rates and enhance long-term economic productivity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

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19 pages, 1716 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Interactions Between Digitalization, Innovation and Employment in European Companies: Insights from a Latent Class Analysis

by Adina-Maria Vodă, Mihai Ciobotea, Doina Badea, Monica Roman and Marian Stan

Economies 2025, 13(4), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040104 - 8 Apr 2025

Viewed by 349

Abstract

There is increasing concern regarding the association between technological change and jobs. This study explores how different patterns of digitalization and innovation relate to job creation in European companies. We use data from the European Company Survey 2019 collected by Eurofound and Cedefop. [...] Read more.

There is increasing concern regarding the association between technological change and jobs. This study explores how different patterns of digitalization and innovation relate to job creation in European companies. We use data from the European Company Survey 2019 collected by Eurofound and Cedefop. We apply Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to identify the typologies of companies, mainly based on their level of technology adoption, innovation practices and employment patterns. We showcase four distinct classes of companies: moderate adoption of digital technology and strong international orientation, traditional and local, medium digitalization, process innovative with local focus and digital leaders and innovators, with specific patterns regarding digitalization, innovation and job creation. The digital leaders and innovators class revealed a high level of digitalization and innovation and maintained stable employment levels, with increased investments in staff training and tendency towards automation. Conversely, less-digitalized traditional companies are more susceptible to stagnation or employment decline. In general, the employment outlook is stable, without significant employment growth, signaling the need for balanced investments in innovation and digitalization that stimulate more and better jobs. This is the first study to apply LCA to explore complex relationships between digitalization, innovation, foreign trade, training investments and employment trends and offers fresh insights into company views towards employment in the digital era. Full article

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21 pages, 915 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Access to Livelihood Assets and Vulnerability to Lower Levels of Well-Being in Kakuma Refugee Camp, Kenya

by Mary Nyambura Kinyanjui

Economies 2025, 13(4), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040103 - 4 Apr 2025

Viewed by 390

Abstract

This paper investigates the role that access to livelihood assets plays in reducing vulnerability to lower levels of well-being, especially for camp-based refugees. We develop the multidimensional vulnerability index using the 2019 Kakuma socioeconomic survey to provide a comprehensive and holistic approach to [...] Read more.

This paper investigates the role that access to livelihood assets plays in reducing vulnerability to lower levels of well-being, especially for camp-based refugees. We develop the multidimensional vulnerability index using the 2019 Kakuma socioeconomic survey to provide a comprehensive and holistic approach to measuring vulnerability. The fractional regression results suggest that the household head’s age and education level determine the vulnerability of refugees to lower levels of well-being. In addition, access to finance and employment substantially reduces refugees’ vulnerability. Although remittances from abroad are a prevalent source of finance among refugees, we find that remittances from abroad only lessen the prevalence of vulnerability by 1.1%. Therefore, we recommend camp refugees adopt more self-reliant ways of accessing sustainable finance. The multidimensional vulnerability index reveals a high level of food insecurity in camps caused by the influx of refugees over the years. We recommend the inclusion of refugees in farming and training on climate change to provide sustainable solutions around food security to them and the host community. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

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18 pages, 1170 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Empirical Investigation of the Sources of Inflation in Sri Lanka: Assessing the Roles of Global and Domestic Drivers

by E. M. Ekanayake and P. M. A. L. Dissanayake

Economies 2025, 13(4), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040102 - 2 Apr 2025

Viewed by 349

Abstract

The annual inflation rate in Sri Lanka accelerated to record levels in recent years, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the inflation rate had declined to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2024, it is of great importance to identify the factors that caused hyperinflation during [...] Read more.

The annual inflation rate in Sri Lanka accelerated to record levels in recent years, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the inflation rate had declined to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2024, it is of great importance to identify the factors that caused hyperinflation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers of inflation in Sri Lanka using a structural vector autoregressive model and a multiple regression model. The study assesses both the global drivers and the domestic drivers of inflation. The study uses monthly data on the inflation rate, global oil price, exchange rate, policy rate, the global supply chain pressure index, and unemployment rate, covering the period from January 2020 to August 2024, focusing on the period of rapid increase in the inflation rate in Sri Lanka. The empirical results of the study provide evidence to conclude that the inflation rate in Sri Lanka during the 2020–2024 period was mainly driven by the growth rates in money supply, exchange rates, and global supply chain disruptions. The results also show that the volatility of the Sri Lanka inflation rate is mostly explained by the money supply and exchange rate movements in the long run. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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22 pages, 358 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Effectiveness of Life Insurance Sales Force Training: Welcome “Me and AI”

by Andrzej Janowski

Economies 2025, 13(4), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040101 - 2 Apr 2025

Viewed by 460

Abstract

After 35 years of a free market in Poland, three life insurance companies have gained a dominant position in the market and developed certain procedural equilibrium in the area of training, allowing their status quo to be maintained. Yet, they do not take [...] Read more.

After 35 years of a free market in Poland, three life insurance companies have gained a dominant position in the market and developed certain procedural equilibrium in the area of training, allowing their status quo to be maintained. Yet, they do not take into account the opinions of agents and the possibility of using the latest IT developments, including artificial intelligence, which supports increasingly broad areas of activity in organisations with great success. As independent sales force training poses a challenge to any national or multinational company in a constantly changing global economy, the primary focus of this research was to analyse the opinions of the top 438 agents from dominant life insurance companies. A need was emphasised to reconfigure the existing training programmes with the potential for AI involvement to achieve a more effective educational trajectory. The research findings confirmed the necessity to reconstruct training programmes in relation to an agent’s age, education level, and seniority and offered grounds for discussing innovative AI concepts that can be relevant for future academic research in management sciences and improving organisational effectiveness, particularly in life insurance companies or other first-contact personnel-dependent institutions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

21 pages, 1198 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Formal and Informal Financing in Refugee Self-Employment: The Case of Urban Kenya

by Linet Nyanchama Arisa

Economies 2025, 13(4), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040100 - 2 Apr 2025

Viewed by 361

Abstract

Considering refugees’ employment challenges in their host countries, they often need to create jobs by starting ventures and embracing self-employment. However, this requires financing. This study seeks to assess the roles of formal and informal financing in self-employment while also looking at the [...] Read more.

Considering refugees’ employment challenges in their host countries, they often need to create jobs by starting ventures and embracing self-employment. However, this requires financing. This study seeks to assess the roles of formal and informal financing in self-employment while also looking at the drivers of financing decisions and self-employment among refugees in an urban setting. Using the extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition pioneered by Fairlie, this study found informal financing to be significantly associated with an individual’s decision to be self-employed, while formal financing is not. Male refugees who access informal financing have a higher probability of embracing self-employment than refugee women and Kenyan nationals; this calls for actions that encourage forming community-based organizations that promote affirmative action and steer the use of informal finance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

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18 pages, 911 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Growth of Maritime Communications and Technology Related to the Trends in the Shipping Industry: A Financial Perspective

by Eleftherios Charamis, Dimitrios Charamis, Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos and Stamatios Ntanos

Economies 2025, 13(4), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040099 - 1 Apr 2025

Viewed by 421

Abstract

This explanatory empirical study aims to investigate the relationship and contribution of the prevailing trends and factors within the shipping industry related to the maritime communications and technology market. It is widely acknowledged that the maritime industry is currently experiencing a rapid transformation, [...] Read more.

This explanatory empirical study aims to investigate the relationship and contribution of the prevailing trends and factors within the shipping industry related to the maritime communications and technology market. It is widely acknowledged that the maritime industry is currently experiencing a rapid transformation, primarily propelled by new safety and environmental regulations but also driven by the growing emphasis on operational efficiency. The ongoing technological advancements in the maritime communications and technology market have significantly transformed the industry, offering opportunities for innovation and efficiency gains. This paper examines key trends and factors in the shipping industry that are crucial for further boosting the maritime communications market’s expansion, thus growing both technologically and financially. From the results of our study, we conclude that the increase in the volume of international maritime trade and the volume of the global fleet are indicators that should be considered as incentives by the maritime communication and technology firms in order to provide additional solutions, thus gaining a competitive advantage and subsequently gaining market size against their competitors. On the other hand, the fluctuation of freight rates is not to be considered an indicator of shipping firms’ intention to purchase the new products and services of maritime technology; a reduction in freight rates and, subsequently, in available income is not a preventing factor for adopting and exploiting the benefits of new technological solutions. Full article

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15 pages, 691 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Money Demand in Indonesia and Its Forecasting to 2033

by Arif Imam Suroso, Saiful Bahri, Noer Azam Achsani, Suhendi and Linda Karlina Sari

Economies 2025, 13(4), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040098 - 1 Apr 2025

Viewed by 495

Abstract

This study aims to identify the primary factors influencing the demand for money in Indonesia and to provide forecasts through 2033. The research employs two methodologies: time series econometrics and machine learning, utilizing data spanning from the first quarter of 2010 (2010Q1) to [...] Read more.

This study aims to identify the primary factors influencing the demand for money in Indonesia and to provide forecasts through 2033. The research employs two methodologies: time series econometrics and machine learning, utilizing data spanning from the first quarter of 2010 (2010Q1) to the fourth quarter of 2023 (2023Q4). The results of the study indicate that, in the long term, the demand for money in Indonesia is influenced by two main determinants: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Financial Institution Depth (FID). In the short term, the significant determinants include interest rates, inflation rates, GDP lag, FID lag, and electricity access. The forecast results suggest that the demand for money in Indonesia is projected to experience positive growth, reaching IDR 16,855,845 billion by 2033. This finding underscores the continued importance of physical currency in the Indonesian economy. Based on these results, this study serves as a guideline for policymakers in managing the demand for money by considering the variables that can either increase or decrease this demand. The positive forecast for the demand for money also highlights its significant role in supporting a stable Indonesian economy in the future. Full article

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21 pages, 320 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Asymmetric Relationship Between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Quantile ARDL Analysis

by Huthaifa Alqaralleh, Ahmad Alsarayreh and Ahmad Alsaraireh

Economies 2025, 13(4), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040097 - 1 Apr 2025

Viewed by 435

Abstract

This study analyses the intricate connection between tourism and economic growth, emphasising significant gaps in existing literature. The study utilises a comprehensive framework encompassing tourism-led economic growth (TLEG) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG), highlighting the bidirectional dynamics at play. This study utilises a [...] Read more.

This study analyses the intricate connection between tourism and economic growth, emphasising significant gaps in existing literature. The study utilises a comprehensive framework encompassing tourism-led economic growth (TLEG) and economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG), highlighting the bidirectional dynamics at play. This study utilises a panel quantile ARDL regression model to analyse regional disparities and varying levels of economic and tourism development. Results demonstrate that European nations with robust tourism sectors exhibit more significant recoveries, whereas Asia–Pacific countries face heightened pressure to leverage tourism for economic stabilisation. This study demonstrates the heightened sensitivity of GDP to tourism in economic downturns, emphasising the sector’s critical role in sustaining growth during difficult periods. Long-term implications favour a strategic focus on structural factors over cyclical ones, promoting innovation, infrastructure development, and investment in human capital. This study recommends economic policies that utilise tourism’s strengths, enhance resilience, and promote diversification to achieve sustainable prosperity during economic challenges. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies on Factors Affecting Economic Growth)

16 pages, 278 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Religion and the Money Laundering Risk

by Hamza Mahmood and Badar Nadeem Ashraf

Economies 2025, 13(4), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040096 - 31 Mar 2025

Viewed by 328

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of religion on the money laundering risk, focusing specifically on Protestantism compared to other religions. Protestantism is often associated with greater individual self-discipline and stronger institutional economic governance. Analysing data from 27 EU member states, we [...] Read more.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of religion on the money laundering risk, focusing specifically on Protestantism compared to other religions. Protestantism is often associated with greater individual self-discipline and stronger institutional economic governance. Analysing data from 27 EU member states, we find that Protestant countries exhibit a lower risk of money laundering. Additionally, our findings indicate that Protestantism exerts a distinct influence that is separate from the overall religiosity levels of countries. Our results remain robust across various estimation models and when incorporating additional governance and cultural control variables. This study enhances our understanding of the significant role that religion plays in shaping individual behaviour toward financial fraud, particularly money laundering. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

16 pages, 371 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Parental Informal Occupation Does Not Significantly Deter Children’s School Performance: A Case Study of Peri-Urban Kathmandu, Nepal

by Resham Thapa-Parajuli, Sujan Bhattarai, Bibek Pokharel and Maya Timsina

Economies 2025, 13(4), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040095 - 31 Mar 2025

Viewed by 285

Abstract

This paper investigated how parents’ informal work relates to their children’s academic performance. We interviewed the heads of households with 83 school-aged children in peri-urban Kathmandu to obtain information on parental occupation and child schooling. We also interviewed key informants and conducted focus [...] Read more.

This paper investigated how parents’ informal work relates to their children’s academic performance. We interviewed the heads of households with 83 school-aged children in peri-urban Kathmandu to obtain information on parental occupation and child schooling. We also interviewed key informants and conducted focus group discussions to investigate the relationship between working parents’ job profiles and their impression of their child’s school achievement. Parent characteristics, such as work status (formal or informal), educational attainment, family size, and number of children, were recorded. The primary variable of interest was the children’s academic performance, measured as improved or otherwise compared to the previous year. Our analysis confirmed that parents in informal jobs spent more time with their school-going children than their counterparts in formal employment. We found that the parents in informal jobs were relatively more educated in the sample area. The existing literature concurs that parental support significantly influences children’s educational outcomes. Parents in informal jobs, while spending more time with their children, expressed pessimism regarding their children’s school performance and future opportunities. We also found that household wealth, past performance, school type, and the level of supporter education in the family played significant roles in shaping parental perceptions of the child’s school performance. At the same time, we found the nature of the parent’s job did not significantly determine the child’s school performance, ceteris paribus. Full article

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22 pages, 2132 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Comparative Analysis of the Calibrated DSGE Model and SSA Method Results on the Latvian Economy

by Sergejs Hilkevics and Valentina Semakina

Economies 2025, 13(4), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040094 - 29 Mar 2025

Viewed by 307

Abstract

This article examines the theoretical foundations of economic forecasting based on DSGE models. DSGE models are the main direction of contemporary macroeconomics theory—the inclusion of the stochastic processes and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of economic processes made them one of [...] Read more.

This article examines the theoretical foundations of economic forecasting based on DSGE models. DSGE models are the main direction of contemporary macroeconomics theory—the inclusion of the stochastic processes and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of economic processes made them one of the best economic forecasting tools. The methodological basis of this paper is two approaches of economic forecasting theory: technical analysis and fundamental analysis. In this article, we have performed the calibration of the DSGE model with investment adjustment costs for the Latvian economy and compared these results with the statistical data filtered with the SSA method. Key results have shown the ability of both approaches to capture the dynamics of the main Latvian macroeconomic indicators. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies on Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators in the European Union)

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13 pages, 284 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Quantile Analysis of the Effect of Non-Mandatory Cash Crop Production on Poverty Among Smallholder Farmers

by Placide Uwimana, Gideon A. Obare and Oscar Ayuya Ingasia

Economies 2025, 13(4), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040093 - 29 Mar 2025

Viewed by 263

Abstract

Tea and coffee as traditional cash crops have been produced in Rwanda for more than six and ten decades respectively. However, new cash crops are being produced and exported, although their role in increased income and poverty reduction over traditional ones is not [...] Read more.

Tea and coffee as traditional cash crops have been produced in Rwanda for more than six and ten decades respectively. However, new cash crops are being produced and exported, although their role in increased income and poverty reduction over traditional ones is not well understood; hence the analysis of drivers of both traditional and non-mandatory cash crop production among smallholder farmers is imperative. The study applied an experimental research design, and two strata composed of non-mandatory cash crops and traditional crop growers were used to obtain a simple random sample of 400 smallholder farmers. The study analysed the effect of cash crop production on multidimensional poverty among farmers in the Rulindo District using a quantile treatment effect. Although the poorest category of adopters places a high opportunity cost in allocating more time to off-farm activities, the poorest households that are female-headed are likely to increase multidimensional poverty once they adopt non-mandatory cash crops. Similarly, farm size does not help the poorest households to reduce poverty. Poorest households could be considered while introducing new non-mandatory cash crops because they do not help them reduce non-pecuniary poverty. Tea, coffee and food crops should be helpful among the poorest smallholder farmers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics)

17 pages, 750 KiB

Open AccessArticle

From Classroom to Workplace: The Combined Effects of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Kenya

by Carol Bisieri Onsomu, John Njenga Macharia and Stephie Muthoni Mwangi

Economies 2025, 13(4), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040092 - 28 Mar 2025

Viewed by 394

Abstract

The evolving labor environment underscores the critical role of cognitive and non-cognitive (soft) skills in fostering workforce adaptability and enhancing labor market outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of these skills on the probability of employment, focusing on the Kenyan labor market, [...] Read more.

The evolving labor environment underscores the critical role of cognitive and non-cognitive (soft) skills in fostering workforce adaptability and enhancing labor market outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of these skills on the probability of employment, focusing on the Kenyan labor market, where high youth unemployment and job market mismatches persist despite government interventions and education sector reforms. Traditionally, emphasis has been placed on cognitive skills, with limited integration of non-cognitive skills into educational curricula, exacerbating the disconnect between youth competencies and market demands. Using binary logistic regression, this study evaluates factors influencing youth employment, highlighting the complementarity of cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Findings reveal that individuals possessing a blend of these skills have higher employment prospects, with notable improvements for young women possessing agreeableness and digital literacy. Additionally, factors such as marital status and higher education levels positively influence employability. These results underscore the equal importance of personality traits and cognitive abilities in labor market success. Policymakers are urged to prioritize curriculum reforms that integrate non-cognitive skill development and encourage employers to include assessments of these skills in hiring practices to address persistent labor market mismatches. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human Capital Development in Africa)

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33 pages, 911 KiB

Open AccessReview

Globalization: An Overview of Its Main Characteristics and Types, and an Exploration of Its Impacts on Individuals, Firms, and Nations

by Naeimah Alkharafi and Mariam Alsabah

Economies 2025, 13(4), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040091 - 27 Mar 2025

Viewed by 2280

Abstract

This paper presents a review of globalization by examining its main characteristics, types, and the advantages and disadvantages associated with each type with regard to people, firms, and nations. It synthesizes the literature and provides a structured analysis of the multifaceted impacts of [...] Read more.

This paper presents a review of globalization by examining its main characteristics, types, and the advantages and disadvantages associated with each type with regard to people, firms, and nations. It synthesizes the literature and provides a structured analysis of the multifaceted impacts of globalization. The review combines the theoretical constructs of globalization characteristics and types, with empirical observations of the contributions and challenges of each type of globalization—based on multiple levels of an analysis—including micro, meso, and macro. Each type of globalization is analyzed to identify how it contributes to economic growth, cultural exchange, political cooperation, technological advancement, and environmental collaboration, while also presenting significant challenges, such as inequality, cultural homogenization, political dependency, digital divide, and ecological degradation. Understanding the multidimensional nature of globalization allows policymakers, business leaders, and individuals to navigate its complexities more effectively, while recognizing both the opportunities and risks. Although much of the literature examined globalization through a single lens, this paper offers an integrative and comparative perspective across the various dimensions. By categorizing the impacts into various levels according to type, it contributes to a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of globalization. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section International, Regional, and Transportation Economics)

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35 pages, 3669 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Operational Efficiency in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

by Jiaqiang Sun, Anita Binti Rosli, Adrian Daud and Xia Yan

Economies 2025, 13(4), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040090 - 27 Mar 2025

Viewed by 349

Abstract

The pharmaceutical industry is a cornerstone of national economies and plays a critical role in public health. However, China’s pharmaceutical industry faces significant challenges, including regional disparities in development. The existing research on operational efficiency evaluation primarily focuses on financial or innovation metrics, [...] Read more.

The pharmaceutical industry is a cornerstone of national economies and plays a critical role in public health. However, China’s pharmaceutical industry faces significant challenges, including regional disparities in development. The existing research on operational efficiency evaluation primarily focuses on financial or innovation metrics, lacking a comprehensive approach. Moreover, studies on the environmental impact on operational efficiency often rely on a limited set of indicators, failing to offer a holistic understanding of how environmental factors influence efficiency. This study aims to address these gaps by comprehensively evaluating operational efficiency and analyzing the impact of broader environmental factors on efficiency. To achieve these objectives, the study employs a Three-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis method combined with Principal Component Analysis to evaluate the operational efficiency of the pharmaceutical industry across 31 provinces in China, considering both financial and innovation dimensions.The findings reveal that overall efficiency has improved annually, with regional disparities gradually narrowing. Specifically, innovation capability and innovation environment have a positive impact on operational efficiency, while living standards and openness exhibit a negative correlation. Additionally, the current environmental conditions in the northwestern region are found to be conducive to the development of the pharmaceutical industry. This study is the first to integrate three-stage data envelopment analysis with principal component analysis, constructing a comprehensive framework for analyzing the relationship between environmental factors and operational efficiency. The results provide empirical evidence for policymakers aiming to enhance the efficiency of the pharmaceutical industry. Full article

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18 pages, 1123 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Triple Threat to Our Environment: Economic, Non-Economic, and Demographic Factors Driving Ecological Footprint in Nuclear-Power Countries

by Hamza Akram, Tuba Rasheed and Md Billal Hossain

Economies 2025, 13(4), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040089 - 27 Mar 2025

Viewed by 350

Abstract

This study examines how economic growth, travel, global connection, and changes in population impact the environmental footprint in seven countries, including Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, and India, from 1995 to 2023. The results show a significant link between Granger’s [...] Read more.

This study examines how economic growth, travel, global connection, and changes in population impact the environmental footprint in seven countries, including Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, and India, from 1995 to 2023. The results show a significant link between Granger’s environmental impact and some economic, non-economic, and population factors in these countries. According to the study, environmental impacts result primarily from economic expansion and tourism revenue generation. The essential activities in economic development frequently result in significant ecological deficits through natural resource depletion, land alterations, and environmental releases. Business enlargement and tourism income commonly bring about deforestation while causing both pollution and habitat damage, thus showing why sustainable practices must exist to protect nature during economic development. We also have to consider factors other than economics, such as total income from natural resources and using nuclear power early. Additionally, how many people live in a particular area and the number of children born contribute to these footprints. Also, this study shows how economic, non-economic and demographic issues can indicate what harm the environment might face later. This is especially important in countries that use nuclear energy extensively. The report suggests different ways to solve this problem. These include advocating for sustainable tourism practices, directing research efforts towards nuclear energy, supporting renewable energy initiatives, promoting family planning and education, and raising public awareness. The aim is to reduce the environmental harm caused by nuclear energy and promote a more sustainable future. Full article

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32 pages, 3424 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Volatility Modeling of the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Commodity Markets

by Letife Özdemir, Necmiye Serap Vurur, Ercan Ozen, Beata Świecka and Simon Grima

Economies 2025, 13(4), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040088 - 26 Mar 2025

Viewed by 1217

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious metals, [...] Read more.

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious metals, agricultural products, energy, and industrial metals. The study differentiates between the impacts of geopolitical threat events and actions using GPRACT and GPRTHREAT indicators. Findings reveal that negative geopolitical shocks increase commodity returns’ volatility more than positive shocks. Specifically, gold, silver, and natural gas are negatively affected, while wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, zinc, nickel, lead, WTI oil, and Brent oil experience positive effects. Platinum, cocoa, coffee, and copper show no significant impact. These insights highlight the importance of geopolitical risks on commodity market volatility and returns, aiding in risk management and portfolio diversification. Policymakers, financial market stakeholders, and investors can leverage these findings to better understand the GPR’s relationship with commodity markets and develop effective strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Market Volatility under Uncertainty)

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23 pages, 2923 KiB

Open AccessArticle

House Prices and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of Morocco

by Roubyou Said and Ouakil Hicham

Economies 2025, 13(4), 87; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040087 - 26 Mar 2025

Viewed by 341

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing housing prices in Morocco. Bayesian estimation over the period 2007Q2–2017Q2 of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model allowed us to reveal a significant impact of the increase in policy [...] Read more.

In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing housing prices in Morocco. Bayesian estimation over the period 2007Q2–2017Q2 of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model allowed us to reveal a significant impact of the increase in policy interest rates on the prices of residential goods. Indeed, the implementation of a restrictive monetary policy in Morocco will drive the prices of this type of asset downward. Despite this empirical finding, the historical decomposition of shocks impacting the inflation of residential property prices shows that interest rates explain only a small portion of the variations in housing prices in this country. Our results also indicate that an increase in the share of borrowers extends the time required for economic and financial variables to return to their equilibrium state. This is a sign of the potential dangers of fueling housing bubbles through credit booms. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Factors on Real Estate Markets)

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21 pages, 3406 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Peanut Value Chain Development: The Case of Lower Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya

by George Okoth Odunga, John K. Bidzakin, Philip Okaka, Sheila Okoth, Beneah Mutsotso and Anil R. Graves

Economies 2025, 13(4), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040086 - 25 Mar 2025

Viewed by 311

Abstract

Peanut is Kenya’s second most important legume after beans, primarily grown in the Nyanza and Western regions. This study maps the peanut value chain in Kenya, aiming to identify key actors, quantify costs and value addition, and outline constraints and opportunities, with a [...] Read more.

Peanut is Kenya’s second most important legume after beans, primarily grown in the Nyanza and Western regions. This study maps the peanut value chain in Kenya, aiming to identify key actors, quantify costs and value addition, and outline constraints and opportunities, with a view to upgrading the chain. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among value chain actors in Karachuonyo and Nyakach sub-counties, complemented by secondary data sources. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze socio-economic characteristics, production volumes, pricing, demand trends, and policy-related factors. The findings indicate a predominance of female farmers (68%) in peanut production, though few use improved technologies; only 26% were aware of improved seed varieties, and just 1.5% reported using them. Fertilizer usage was absent, attributed to high costs, soil conditions, and limited knowledge. The wholesale and processing segments are male-dominated, largely due to capital intensity and travel requirements, while female traders dominate the retail sector. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) analysis highlighted the significant potential of favorable production ecologies, processing options, and robust demand in local and international markets. Key constraints identified include limited seed availability, high fertilizer costs, pest issues, and declining soil fertility. Policy implications include increasing access to affordable inputs, promoting gender-inclusive programs, investing in agricultural research and infrastructure, supporting sustainable farming practices, and fostering public-private partnerships to expand processing and market access. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics)

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27 pages, 1133 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Digital Village Construction Promote Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity? An Empirical Study Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data

by Lingling Xu, Danai Tanamee and Suppanunta Romprasert

Economies 2025, 13(4), 85; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13040085 - 21 Mar 2025

Viewed by 384

Abstract

Based on endogenous growth theory and technological innovation theory, this paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022 to investigate the impact of digital village construction on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). AGTFP was measured by the [...] Read more.

Based on endogenous growth theory and technological innovation theory, this paper uses panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022 to investigate the impact of digital village construction on agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). AGTFP was measured by the EBM-GML method, and mediated effects and heterogeneity analysis were used to reveal its conduction pathway. The findings are as follows: (1) AGTFP showed an overall upward trend during the sample period, and most provinces peaked in 2018. Among them, the AGTFP index value of the eastern coastal provinces (such as Tianjin and Beijing) is between 1.059 and 1.129, maintaining the leading position. The western region fluctuates greatly; e.g., the AGTFP value of Qinghai Province fluctuates between 0.915 and 1.047. (2) Digital village construction significantly improves AGTFP by promoting green technology progress (coefficient 0.105, significant at the 5% level) but has no significant impact on technical efficiency. (3) Agricultural informatization (coefficient 0.040, significant at the 5% level) and rural human capital (coefficient 0.115, significant at the 5% level) are important intermediary channels for digital village construction to affect AGTFP. (4) Regional heterogeneity analysis showed that the effect of digital village construction in the eastern region (coefficient 0.151, significant at the 5% level) and the southern provinces (coefficient 0.170, significant at the 1% level) was more significant. The digital village construction in the main producing areas (coefficient 0.113, significant at the 1% level) also significantly promoted AGTFP. Based on the research results, it is suggested that the promotion and application of digital technology be strengthened, the land transfer system improved, an agricultural information platform built, rural human capital improved, and regional differentiated development strategies implemented. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Green Fiscal Policies on Green Investment, Innovation and Green Productivity)

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Economies, Volume 13, Issue 4 (April 2025) – 29 articles

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