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Economies, Volume 7, Issue 4 (December 2019)

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Open AccessReview
The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies
Economies 2019, 7(4), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040105 - 18 Oct 2019
Viewed by 99
Abstract
A vast number of the energy-growth nexus researchers, as well as other “X-variable-growth nexus” studies, such as for example the tourism-growth nexus, the environment-growth nexus or the food-growth nexus have used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration testing. [...] Read more.
A vast number of the energy-growth nexus researchers, as well as other “X-variable-growth nexus” studies, such as for example the tourism-growth nexus, the environment-growth nexus or the food-growth nexus have used the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bounds test approach for cointegration testing. Their research papers rarely include all the ARDL procedure steps in a detailed way and thus they leave other researchers confused with the series of steps that must be followed and the best implementation paradigms so that they not allow any obscure aspects. This paper is a comprehensive review that suggests the steps that need to be taken before the ARDL procedure takes place as well as the steps that should be taken afterward with respect to causality investigation and robust analysis. Full article
Open AccessArticle
Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?
Economies 2019, 7(4), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040104 - 16 Oct 2019
Viewed by 145
Abstract
We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in [...] Read more.
We apply a relatively novel leading–lagging (LL) method to four leading and one lagging indexes for industrial production (IP) in Germany. We obtain three sets of results. First, we show that the sentiment-based ifo index performs best in predicting the general changes in IP (−0.596, range −1.0 to 1.0, −1.0 being best). The ZEW index is very close (−0.583). In third place comes, somewhat unexpectedly, the behavioral-based unemployment index (−0.564), and last comes order flow, OF (−0.186). Second, we applied the LL method to predefined recession and recovery time windows. The recessions were best predicted (−0.70), the recoveries worst (−0.32), and the overall prediction was intermediate (−0.48). Third, the method identifies time windows automatically, even for short time windows, where the leading indexes fail. All indexes scored low during time windows around 1997 and 2005. Both periods correspond to anomalous periods in the German economy. The 1997 period coincides with “the great moderation” in the US at the end of a minor depression in Germany. Around 2005, oil prices increased from $10 to $60 a barrel. There were few orders, and monetary supply was low. Our policy implications suggest that the ZEW index performs best (including recessions and recoveries), but unemployment and monetary supply should probably be given more weight in sentiment forecasting. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Determinants of Food Security and Technical Efficiency among Agricultural Households in Nigeria
Economies 2019, 7(4), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040103 - 10 Oct 2019
Viewed by 140
Abstract
The challenge of food security in Nigeria hinges on several factors of which poor technical efficiency is key. Using a stochastic frontier framework, we estimated the technical efficiency of agricultural households in Nigeria and tested for the significance of mean technical efficiency of [...] Read more.
The challenge of food security in Nigeria hinges on several factors of which poor technical efficiency is key. Using a stochastic frontier framework, we estimated the technical efficiency of agricultural households in Nigeria and tested for the significance of mean technical efficiency of food-secure and food-insecure agricultural households. We further assessed the determinants of agricultural households’ inefficiencies within the stochastic frontier model and adopted a standard probit model to assess the determinants of households’ food security status. The results of our analyses revealed that; on the overall, the agricultural households had a mean technical efficiency of 52%, suggesting that agricultural households have the tendency of improving their technical efficiency by 48% using the available resource more efficiently. We found that households that are food-secure are more technically efficient than food in-secure households and this was significant at one-percent. Our results provide useful insights into the role of land size and number of assets as determinants of agricultural households’ food security and technical efficiency status. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Productivity and Efficiency Analysis)
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle
Prize Structure and Performance: Evidence from NASCAR
Economies 2019, 7(4), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040102 - 02 Oct 2019
Viewed by 245
Abstract
The predictions that emerge from tournament theory have been tested in a number of sports-related settings. Since sporting events involving individuals (golf, tennis, running, auto racing) feature rank order tournaments with relatively large payoffs and easily observable outcomes, sports is a natural setting [...] Read more.
The predictions that emerge from tournament theory have been tested in a number of sports-related settings. Since sporting events involving individuals (golf, tennis, running, auto racing) feature rank order tournaments with relatively large payoffs and easily observable outcomes, sports is a natural setting for such tests. In this paper, we test the predictions of tournament theory using a unique race-level data set from NASCAR. Most previous tests of tournament theory using NASCAR data used either season level data or race level data from a few seasons. Our empirical work uses race and driver level NASCAR data for 1114 races over the period 1975–2009. Our results support the predictions of tournament theory: the larger the spread in prizes paid in the race, measured by the standard deviation or interquartile range of prizes paid, the higher the average speed in the race. Our results account for the length of the track, number of entrants, number of caution flags, and unobservable year- and week-level heterogeneity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Sports Economics)
Open AccessArticle
Migration, Labor Mobility and Household Poverty in Nigeria: A Gender Analysis
Economies 2019, 7(4), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040101 - 02 Oct 2019
Viewed by 229
Abstract
The increase in the geographical mobility of labour as a result of poverty, unemployment and unstable economic conditions, among other factors, especially among professionals, has been associated with a brain drain in Nigeria. Despite the high level of migration and subsequent remittances from [...] Read more.
The increase in the geographical mobility of labour as a result of poverty, unemployment and unstable economic conditions, among other factors, especially among professionals, has been associated with a brain drain in Nigeria. Despite the high level of migration and subsequent remittances from migrants, a large proportion of Nigerians still live in poverty. The increased participation of women in migration in the country also brings to the fore the existence of gender-specific migration experiences and how this has in turn affected their households. Based on gender, this study assesses the extent of labour mobility, its determinants and how it influences remittance inflows and household poverty using the logit regression model Propensity Score Matching and Linear Regression with Endogenous Treatment Effect Approach. Results reveal that while more males travelled for employment purposes, more females travelled due to marriage arrangements. More of the migrants that were working after migration had worked before migration and had the highest average amount of remittance sent to households. The study shows that labour mobility increases the amount of remittance sent to households. However, the increase was higher among male migrants than female migrants. More than half of the migrants had poor households; meanwhile, labour mobility was found to reduce the extent of poverty. The study recommended that policies that improve the welfare of labour and reduce the brain drain, unemployment and closures of enterprises in the country should be put in place. Also, effective policies and interventions that promote the use of remittances to achieve maximum reductions in poverty should be pursued. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Structural transformation, poverty and income inequality)
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Open AccessArticle
The Influencing Factors on Choice Behavior Regarding Green Electronic Products: Based on the Green Perceived Value Model
Economies 2019, 7(4), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040099 - 01 Oct 2019
Viewed by 191
Abstract
Electronic/electrical waste (e-waste) has now become a global concern due to its negative impact on the environment and health. This negative effect of e-waste is increasing with the advancement in the electronics industry, especially in Pakistan, which is the leading e-waste disposal destination. [...] Read more.
Electronic/electrical waste (e-waste) has now become a global concern due to its negative impact on the environment and health. This negative effect of e-waste is increasing with the advancement in the electronics industry, especially in Pakistan, which is the leading e-waste disposal destination. Therefore, this study aims to find consumer choice behavior regarding green electronics in Pakistan. For this purpose, a multidimensional modified green perceived model (functional value quality, functional value price, social value identity, social value responsibility, emotional value, and conditional value) is used. Cross-sectional data is collected from 237 consumers through a self-administrative questionnaire. The results of variance-based structural equation modeling (SEM) (partial least squares (PLS)-SEM) suggested that functional value price, quality, social value identity, responsibility, emotional value, and conditional value positively and significantly influence the consumer choice behavior regarding green electronics. the possible reasons for the findings and the implications for managers and policymakers are discussed. Limitations of the study and future research directions are also suggested. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Delinquency and Default in USA Student Debt as a Proportional Response to Unemployment and Average Debt per Borrower
Economies 2019, 7(4), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040100 - 01 Oct 2019
Viewed by 168
Abstract
We research the response of the proportion of student borrowers with ninety or more days of delinquency or in default to variables such as unemployment and the average debt per borrower after the financial crisis of 2007–2008, in the United States, using panel [...] Read more.
We research the response of the proportion of student borrowers with ninety or more days of delinquency or in default to variables such as unemployment and the average debt per borrower after the financial crisis of 2007–2008, in the United States, using panel data of 50 states from 2008 to 2015. The proportion of borrowers with delinquency or default was modelled as a function of unemployment, the average debt per borrower, consumer sentiment, and financial stress, using a logit and probit binomial model. The specification tests support that no relevant variable was omitted. Unemployment and the average debt per borrower are statistically significant and contribute to increasing delinquency or default in the 50 states of the panel sample. The results also reveal a differential impact of unemployment among the four regions considered by the US Census Bureau. Full article
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Open AccessArticle
Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy
Economies 2019, 7(4), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040098 - 23 Sep 2019
Viewed by 368
Abstract
The European Central Bank (ECB) engaged in an expanded asset purchase programme (APP) from 2014 to 2018 to help achieve their primary objective of price stability. Total assets purchased over this period was over €2.5 trillion and new net purchases ended in December [...] Read more.
The European Central Bank (ECB) engaged in an expanded asset purchase programme (APP) from 2014 to 2018 to help achieve their primary objective of price stability. Total assets purchased over this period was over €2.5 trillion and new net purchases ended in December 2018. This paper identifies whether the ECB’s APP in Ireland operated through the portfolio rebalancing channel, the signalling channel or the lending channel. It presents a quantitative descriptive analysis of some key Irish data sets in the 2014–2018 period and uses time-series visualisation and trend analysis to identify trends and correlations. There are a number of preliminary findings. First, much downward pressure on sovereign debt yields and spreads had occurred before the APP began due to previous accommodative monetary policy and the signalling channel. Second, the corporate-sector purchase programme (CSPP) did impact on targeted bonds and may have had spill overs to non-targeted bonds. Third, the APP did not lead to much increased lending to the SME sector. Fourth, while households did engage in traditional portfolio rebalancing, Irish banks did not and were perhaps more motivated to meet their capital requirements and manage their level of reserves. This is a first step towards understanding the transmission channels of ECB policy in Ireland and more work needs to be done to detangle the transmission of the most recent APP from other factors and consider these findings in the context of theoretical models. Such work is important to help inform policy makers on enhancing the transmission mechanism to the Irish economy of the recently launched new ECB asset purchase programme from November 2019. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy)
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Open AccessArticle
Approaching Modern Monetary Theory with a Taylor Rule
Economies 2019, 7(4), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040097 - 20 Sep 2019
Viewed by 231
Abstract
Considering the goals of Modern Monetary Theorists, this article examines inflation stabilization and employment maximization through a Taylor Rule for fiscal policy, similar to John Taylor’s foundational examination of the behavior of the Federal Reserve. If it is the role of the federal [...] Read more.
Considering the goals of Modern Monetary Theorists, this article examines inflation stabilization and employment maximization through a Taylor Rule for fiscal policy, similar to John Taylor’s foundational examination of the behavior of the Federal Reserve. If it is the role of the federal government to aid in the maintenance of the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, then their behavior should follow a similar policy of setting an intermediate target of deficits relative to the maximum employment (the “Federal Job Guarantee”) and the inflation target. The paper will compare the historical data with the rule. When the predictions of the Deficit Rule are compared to historical data from 1965, we find that fiscal policy aligns with what the Deficit Rule predicts with two exceptions: the stagflation of the 1970s and the current increases in budget deficits. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy)
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Open AccessArticle
An Analysis of the Determinants of Household Consumption Expenditure and Poverty in India
Economies 2019, 7(4), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040096 - 20 Sep 2019
Viewed by 239
Abstract
This article examines the determinants of household income among urban and rural areas in India and evaluates households’ performance with different characteristics in terms of poverty. It uses four rounds of data from the consumer expenditure survey (50th, 1993/1994; 55th, 1999/2000; 61st, 2004/2005; [...] Read more.
This article examines the determinants of household income among urban and rural areas in India and evaluates households’ performance with different characteristics in terms of poverty. It uses four rounds of data from the consumer expenditure survey (50th, 1993/1994; 55th, 1999/2000; 61st, 2004/2005; and 66th, 2009/2010) by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) in the empirical section. This study consists of two main parts. In the first, it looks at the impact of the characteristics of the head of the household (age, educational level, marital status, and gender) and household characteristics (main occupational type, household size, and social status) on monthly per capita expenditure through conditional mean least squares (LS) regressions and conditional quantile regressions. Households headed by those who are older, married, belonging to lower castes, and living in less-developed states are more likely to be in poverty. In the second part, the article explores stochastic dominance rankings relative to large classes of welfare functions/preferences between pairwise sub-groups identified by the survey year, gender, social status, and occupational type of the household heads. Our results show that ‘inferior groups’ such as ‘Backward classes’, agricultural labor in rural areas, and casual labor in urban areas are vulnerable and may be targeted for poverty alleviation strategies. The first part sheds light on key determinants of household expenditure, while the second provides a picture of poverty outcomes which helps identify potential target groups for poverty-alleviation strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Growth, Global Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution)
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