J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 12, Issue 2 (June 2019) – 56 articles

This paper conducts a review of the literature on the price–volume relationship and its relation with the implications of the adaptive market hypothesis. The literature on market efficiency is classified as efficient market hypothesis (EMH) studies or adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) studies. Under each class, studies are categorized either as return predictability studies or price–volume relationship studies. Finally, review in each category is analyzed based on the methodology used. Our review shows that the literature on return predictability and price–volume relationship in classical EMH approach is extensive while studies in return predictability in the AMH approach have gained increased attention in the last decade. However, the studies in price–volume relationship under adaptive approach are limited, and there is a scope for studies in this area. Authors did not find any literature review on time-varying price–volume relationship. Authors find that there is a scope to study the nonlinear cross–correlation between price and volume using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)-detrended cross–correlational analysis (DXA) in the AMH domain. Further, it would be interesting to investigate whether the same cross–correlation holds across different measures of stock indices within a country and across different time scales. Full article

The purpose of this research is to investigate whether there is an optimal cash holding ratio, in which firm’s performance can be maximized. The threshold regression model is applied to test the threshold effect of the cash holding ratio on firm’s performance of 306 non-financial companies listed on the Vietnam stock exchange market during the period of 2008–2017. Experimental results showed that a single-threshold effect exists between the ratio of cash holding and company’s performance. A proportion of cash holding within a threshold of 9.93% can contribute to improvement of the company’s efficiency. The coefficient is positive but tends to decrease when the cash holding ratio passes the 9.93% check point, implying that an increase in cash holdings ratio will continue to diminishment of efficiency eventually. Therefore, the relationship between cash holding ratio and firm’s performance is nonlinear. From this result, this paper provides policy implications for non-financial companies listed on the Vietnam stock exchange market in determining the proportion of cash holding flexibly. In detail, non-financial companies listed on the Vietnam stock exchange market should not keep the cash holding ratio over 9.93%. To ensure and enhance the company’s performance, the optimal range of cash holding ratios should be below 9.93%. Full article

This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast results of ARIMA model over NNAR in the test-sample periods. Forecast performance of ARIMA models with and without re-estimation are identical for the estimated test-sample periods. Despite the sophistication of NNAR, this paper demonstrates ARIMA enduring power of volatile Bitcoin price prediction. Full article

The growing trend of merging and acquisition (M&A) investments from emerging to developed market economies over the last two decades motivates the question on the long-run effects of M&A on the wealth of emerging markets. This paper contributes to the current literature on cross-border M&A (CBMA) by focusing on the long-term effects of this event on the bidder’s stock return in emerging markets. To address the challenges of finding an accurate measure for the effects, this study applies the propensity score matching framework in tandem with difference-in-differences (DID) on a comprehensive dataset over the 1990–2010 period. The analyses show evidence of systematic detrimental impacts of cross-border M&A on shareholders’ welfare in the long run, to a certain extent, diverging from the existing literature, which mainly highlights the positive effects for certain types of M&A. The striking finding is that such strong negative effects remain persistent even when various factors previously known as capable of suppressing underperformance are considered. Our study is in line with the growing landscape of cross-border mergers and acquisitions from the “poor” to the “rich” countries. Full article

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate misalignment on outward capital flight in Botswana over the period 1980–2015. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Botswana’s currency misalignment was caused by current account imbalances. The most important determinant of capital flight from Botswana is trade openness, which indicates that exportable commodities are misinvoiced leading to net capital outflows. Our main findings show that in the long-run, when the currency is overvalued, the volume of capital flight through trade misinvoicing declines and increasing foreign reserves does not reduce outward capital flight. However, when the currency is undervalued, the volume of capital flight through trade misinvoicing increases and foreign reserves reduce outward capital flight. Investors respond more to prospects of devaluation than to inflation. Botswana should tolerate overvaluation of the pula of only up to 5%. When the pula is overvalued beyond 5%, capital flight increases substantially. The government has to formulate trade regulations and monitor imported and exported commodities. Botswana should also implement capital controls to limit capital smuggling and maintain monetary autonomy. Full article

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the financial structure and misery index on economic growth in Pakistan. We adopted Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) for a co-integration approach to the data analysis and used time series data from 1989 to 2017. We used GDP as the dependent variable; the Financial Development index (FDI) and misery index as the explanatory variables; and remittances, real interest, and trade openness as the control variables. The empirical results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship among the included variables in the model and the FD index, misery index, interest rate, trade openness, and remittances as the main affecting variables of GDP in the long run. The government needs appropriate reform in the financial sector and external sector in order to achieve a desirable level of economic growth in Pakistan. The misery index is constructed based on unemployment and inflation, which has a negative implication on the economic growth, and the government needs policies to reduce unemployment and inflation. Full article

We studied the dependence structure between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices and the exchange rates of BRICS¹ countries, using copula models. We used the Normal, Plackett, rotated-Gumbel, and Student’s t copulas to measure the constant dependence, and we captured the dynamic dependence using the Generalized Autoregressive Score with the Student’s t copula. We found that negative dependence and significant tail dependence exist in all pairs considered. The Russian Ruble (RUB)–WTI pair has the strongest dependence. Moreover, we treated five exchange rate–oil pairs as portfolios and evaluated the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from the time-varying copula models. We found that both reach low values when the oil price falls sharply. Full article

The aim of this paper is to study the integration of volatility in the three markets, viz. spot, futures and options, in order to provide input for hedging purposes and the formulation of policies for derivatives. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to capture the simultaneous equation modelling of volatility in the three markets. The integration of the volatility in the three markets is also tested for structural breaks. The main finding of the paper is that the volatility in the options market is not associated with volatility in spot and futures market. However, volatility in spot and futures markets are associated with each other. As a consequence, investors can use options for hedging purposes and policy makers do not need to be concerned about the imminent impact of options markets on spot markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no other study which discusses the integration of volatility in the three markets. Moreover, the finding of this paper that the options market behaves differently compared to the futures market has also not been discussed in earlier studies. Full article

The expansion of investment strategies and capital markets is altering the significance and empirical rationality of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The vitality of capital markets is essential for efficiency research. The authors explore here the development and contemporary status of the efficient market hypothesis by emphasizing anomaly/excess returns. Investors often fail to get excess returns; however, thus far, market anomalies have been witnessed and stock prices have diverged from their intrinsic value. This paper presents an analysis of anomaly returns in the presence of the theory of the efficient market. Moreover, the market efficiency progression is reviewed and its present status is explored. Finally, the authors provide enough evidence of a data snooping issue, which violates and challenges the existing proof and creates room for replication studies in modern finance. Full article

For this research, we implemented a trading system based on the Turtle rules and examined its efficiency when trading selected assets from the Forex, Metals, Commodities, Energy and Cryptocurrency Markets using historical data. Afterwards, we enhanced our Turtle-based trading system with additional conditions for opening a new position. Specifically, we added an exclusion zone based on the ATR indicator, in order to have controlled conditions for opening a new position after a stop loss signal was triggered. Thus, AdTurtle was developed, a Turtle trading system with advanced algorithms of opening and closing positions. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time this variation of the Turtle trading system has been developed and examined. Full article

Prior research uses the basic one-period European call-option pricing model to compute default measures for individual firms and concludes that both the size and book-to-market effects are related to default risk. For example, small firms earn higher return than big firms only if they have higher default risk and value stocks earn higher returns than growth stocks if their default risk is high. In this paper we use a more advanced compound option pricing model for the computation of default risk and provide a more exhaustive test of stock returns using univariate and double-sorted portfolios. The results show that long/short hedge portfolios based on Geske measures of default risk produce significantly larger return differentials than Merton’s measure of default risk. The paper provides new evidence that mediates between the rational and behavioral explanations of value premium. Full article

The current paper studies equity markets for the contagion of squared index returns as a proxy for stock market volatility, which has not been studied earlier. The study examines squared stock index returns of equity in 35 markets, including the US, UK, Euro Zone and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries, as a proxy for the measurement of volatility. Results from the conditional heteroskedasticity long memory model show the evidence of long memory in the squared stock returns of all 35 stock indices studied. Empirical findings show the evidence of contagion during the global financial crisis (GFC) and Euro Zone crisis (EZC). The intensity of contagion varies depending on its sources. This implies that the effects of shocks are not symmetric and may have led to some structural changes. The effect of contagion is also studied by decomposing the level series into explained and unexplained behaviors. Full article

The paper investigates whether Bitcoin is a good predictor of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. To answer this question we compare alternative models using a point and density forecast relying on Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Dynamic Model Selection (DMS). According to our results, Bitcoin does not show any direct impact on the predictability of Standard & Poor’s 500 for the considered sample. Full article

The choice and structure of a country’s exchange rate regime has wide implications for the effectiveness and flexibility of monetary policy tools, as well as for economic and financial stability. We examine 21 instances where exchange rate pegs have been abandoned in the past, to gauge the potential economic damage associated with pegs failing. The sample includes major exchange rate shifts over the past thirty years, spanning from the Latin America currency crises of the 1990s to the peg abandonment in Egypt in 2016. Given the close interconnection of banks to the sovereign and the real economy, risks often flow through to, and can also be magnified by, the banking system. We therefore examine the interaction of currency peg abandonment with the occurrence of a banking crisis to investigate the different circumstances and impacts of exchange rate pegs failing. We have found that countries that simultaneously suffered a systemic banking crisis during the period of exchange rate regime shift also experienced significantly greater economic and financial damage following the adoption of a freely floating exchange rate. Nevertheless, regardless of whether there was a banking crisis, countries start showing signs of recovery after the same amount of time once the currency floated. Full article

To search significant variables which can illustrate the abnormal return of stock price, this research is generally based on the Fama-French five-factor model to develop a multi-factor model. We evaluated the existing factors in the empirical study of Chinese stock market and examined for new factors to extend the model by OLS and ridge regression model. With data from 2007 to 2018, the regression analysis was conducted on 1097 stocks separately in the market with computer simulation based on Python. Moreover, we conducted research on factor cyclical pattern via chi-square test and developed a corresponding trading strategy with trend analysis. For the results, we found that except market risk premium, each industry corresponds differently to the rest of six risk factors. The factor cyclical pattern can be used to predict the direction of seven risk factors and a simple moving average approach based on the relationships between risk factors and each industry was conducted in back-test which suggested that SMB (size premium), CMA (investment growth premium), CRMHL (momentum premium), and AMLH (asset turnover premium) can gain positive return. Full article

This paper provides global evidence supporting the hypothesis that expected return models are enhanced by the inclusion of variables that describe the evolution of book-to-market—changes in book value, changes in price, and net share issues. This conclusion is supported using data representing North America, Europe, Japan, and Asia. Results are highly consistent across all global regions and hold for small and big market capitalization subsets as well as in different subperiods. Variables measured over the past twelve months are more relevant than variables measured over the past thirty-six months, demonstrating that recent news is more important than old news. Full article

We investigate the default probability, recovery rates and loss distribution of a portfolio of securitised loans granted to Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). To this end, we use loan level data information provided by the European DataWarehouse platform and employ a logistic regression to estimate the company default probability. We include loan-level default probabilities and recovery rates to estimate the loss distribution of the underlying assets. We find that bank securitised loans are less risky, compared to the average bank lending to small and medium enterprises. Full article

This paper proposes a variant of a threshold stochastic conditional duration (TSCD) model for financial data at the transaction level. It assumes that the innovations of the duration process follow a threshold distribution with a positive support. In addition, it also assumes that the latent first-order autoregressive process of the log conditional durations switches between two regimes. The regimes are determined by the levels of the observed durations and the TSCD model is specified to be self-excited. A novel Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) is developed for parameter estimation of the model. For model discrimination, we employ deviance information criteria, which does not depend on the number of model parameters directly. Duration forecasting is constructed by using an auxiliary particle filter based on the fitted models. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed TSCD model and MCMC method work well in terms of parameter estimation and duration forecasting. Lastly, the proposed model and method are applied to two classic data sets that have been studied in the literature, namely IBM and Boeing transaction data. Full article

Since the appearance of persistent research finding a disconnection between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals, the empirical debate has not stopped. Studies employ various methods to explain the presence of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle, including applying models to the case of emerging market economies. However, the exchange rate has different determinants in some countries. To revisit this puzzle in an emerging market currency, we analyzed the cointegration of the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah vis-á-vis currencies of primary trade partners and its macroeconomic fundamentals. The empirical results based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models show that the fundamental variables consistently drive the exchange rate. The trade surplus as an extended nonlinear variable revealed high feedback to the exchange rate volatility in the long-run. Full article

This paper studies the link between secondary market liquidity for a corporate bond and the bond’s yield spread at issuance. Using ex-ante measures of expected liquidity at the time of issuance, based on the characteristics of the underwriting syndicate, we find an economically large impact of liquidity on yield spreads. We estimate that a 10% increase in expected liquidity implies a decrease in the yield spread at issuance of between 8% and 14%. Our results suggest that liquidity has an important effect on firms’ cost of capital, and they contribute to the literature which examines the impact of liquidity on asset prices. Full article

This paper investigates how investor sentiment affects stock market returns and evaluates the predictability power of sentiment indices on U.S. and EU stock market returns. As regards the American example, evidence shows that investor sentiment indices have an economic and statistical predictability power on stock market returns. Concerning the European market instead, investigation provides weak results. Moreover, comparing the two markets, where investor sentiment of U.S. market tries to predict the European stock market returns, and vice versa, the analyses indicate a spillover effect from the U.S. to Europe. Full article

This study employs generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic panel data models to deal with the nature of banking behaviour, aiming at investigating the impact of bank equity on the risk and return of Vietnamese commercial banks during the period of 2006–2017. The study finds that increasing bank equity is not always the best strategy to be accompanied by absolute benefits, increasing returns and reducing risks for banks but is a trade-off instead. More precisely, banks with larger capital buffers tend to take less risk but are less profitable. In addition, the study also finds a non-linear relationship revealing that bank risk mitigates the effect of bank equity on profitability. Most estimations show strong robustness checked by some alternative techniques. Based on the findings, the study provides some important policy implications to improve the performance of the banking system in Vietnam as well as in other emerging countries. Full article

In this article, inspired by Shi et al., we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under the cumulative prospect theory (CPT) risk criterion. Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark and portfolio constraints. By performing a numerical analysis, we test the sensitivity of the optimal CPT investment strategies to different model parameters. Full article

The effect of corporate diversification on firm performance has been extensively documented in the literature. In the general finance literature, Kuppuswamy and Villalonga (2015) studied the diversification effect during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and found that diversification adds value in the presence of external financing constraints. Motivated by this finding, we investigate whether a similar effect applies to insurance firms and we develop hypotheses for their different ownership structures (stock vs. mutual insurers; and group vs. non-group affiliated insurers). Using a sample of property-liability insurers over a period of 2004 to 2013, we find that the effect of diversification on performance is contingent on ownership structures and economic conditions. The diversification effect for stock insurers and insurers affiliated with a group is not significantly affected by economic conditions. However, the diversification effect for mutual insurers and non-affiliated insurers is reversed during the financial crisis. More specifically, diversified firms with these kinds of ownership structures perform better than focused firms during normal economic conditions, but their performance was significantly worse during the financial crisis. Our results are robust to alternative measures of performance and diversification, and to corrections for endogeneity. Our study contributes to the diversification literature by showing how the effect of diversification varies with ownership structure under different economic conditions and the results shed light on the specific circumstances in which diversification can improve or reduce performance. Full article

This paper aims to test the adaptive market hypothesis in the two main Vietnamese stock exchanges, namely Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), by measuring the relationship between current stock returns and historical stock returns. In particular, the tests employed are the automatic variance ratio test (“AVR”), the automatic portmanteau test (“AP”), the generalized spectral test (“GS”), and the time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) approach. The empirical results validate the adaptive market hypothesis in the Vietnamese stock market. Furthermore, the results suggest that the evolution of HSX has served as an important factor of the adaptive market hypothesis. Full article

Monetary policies and adjustments during a financial crisis depend on policy-makers’ conceptions on what money is and how it works. There is sufficient consensus among scholars that money is an institution created within the economic system and is in line with other institutions that regulate economic action. However, there are different understandings of what institutions are and how they operate, and these understandings imply differences in terms of monetary enforcement, resilience, responsiveness and stability. This paper discusses the two main approaches that conceptualise institutions as rules and as practices presenting an empirically informed discussion of money as an institution drawing on these insights. It grounds the analysis on the empirical case of Argentina as a monetary laboratory and the plurality of currencies that circulate in its economy. The study argues that while the official currency of Argentina corresponds to the institutions as rules approach, the adoption of the U.S. dollar into a bimonetary economy evolved as equilibrium. In between, the massive community currency systems that rose and declined during the economic meltdown between 1998 and 2002 were a hybrid institution that combined rules and practice. All three of them show various degrees of resilience and stability. Full article

This paper addresses two practical investment questions: Is investing in the diamond equity market a more feasible and liquid alternative to investing in diamonds? Additionally, is diamond equity affected by polished diamond prices? We assemble an original database of diamond mining stock prices traded on main stock exchanges in order to assess their relationship with diamond prices. Our results show that the market of diamond-mining stocks does not represent a valid investment alternative to the diamond commodity. Diamond equity returns are not driven by diamond price dynamics but rather by local market stock indices. Full article

This paper tests whether the traditional futures hedge ratio (h_T) and the carry cost rate futures hedge ratio (h_c) vary in accordance with the Sercu and Wu (2000) and Leistikow et al. (2019) “h_c” theory. It does so, both within and across high and low spot asset carry cost rate (c) regimes. The high and low c regimes are specified by asset across time and across currency denominations. The findings are consistent with the theory. Within and across c regimes, h_T is inefficient and h_c is biased. Across c regimes, h_c’s Bias Adjustment Multiplier (BAM) does not vary significantly. Even though h_c’s bias-adjusted variant’s BAM is restricted to old data that is from a different c regime, the hedging performance of h_c and its bias-adjusted variant (=h_c × BAM), are superior to that for h_T. Variation in c may account for the h_T variation noted in the literature and variation in c should be incorporated into ex ante hedge ratios. Full article

This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of non-learning agents are time-invariant and isotropic. On the contrary, learning enhances expectations. We uncover the “yardstick of expectations” in order to assess the impact of market developments on expectations. For the first time in the literature, we reveal new insights about the motion of dynamic expectations. Finally, the model is suitable for an AI approach and has major implications on the behaviour of market participants. Full article

The exchange rate is one of the most monitored economic variables reflecting the state of the economy in the long run, while affecting it significantly in the short run. However, prediction of the exchange rate is very complicated. In this contribution, for the purposes of predicting the exchange rate, artificial neural networks are used, which have brought quality and valuable results in a number of research programs. This contribution aims to propose a methodology for considering seasonal fluctuations in equalizing time series by means of artificial neural networks on the example of Euro and Chinese Yuan. For the analysis, data on the exchange rate of these currencies per period longer than 9 years are used (3303 input data in total). Regression by means of neural networks is carried out. There are two network sets generated, of which the second one focuses on the seasonal fluctuations. Before the experiment, it had seemed that there was no reason to include categorical variables in the calculation. The result, however, indicated that additional variables in the form of year, month, day in the month, and day in the week, in which the value was measured, have brought higher accuracy and order in equalizing of the time series. Full article