Journal of Risk and Financial Management — Open Access Journal

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether contagion actually occurred during three well-known financial crises in 1990s and 2000s: Mexican “Tequila” crisis in 1994, Asian “flu” crisis in 1997 and US subprime crisis in 2007. We apply dynamic conditional correlation models (DCC-GARCH(1,1)) to daily stock-index returns of eight Asian stock markets, six Latin American stock markets and US stock market. Defining contagion as a significant increase of dynamic conditional correlations, we test for contagion by using a difference test for DCC means. The results obtained shows that there is a pure contagion from crisis-originating markets to other emerging stock markets during these three crisis. However, the contagion effects are different from one crisis to the other. Firstly, during the Mexican crisis, contagion is detected in only the Latin American region. Secondly, during the Asian crisis, we find evidence of contagion in some markets in both the Asian and Latin American regions. Finally, contagion is proved to be present in all stock markets with the only exception for Brazil during US subprime crisis. Full article

This paper introduces a spectral clustering-based method to show that stock prices contain not only firm but also network-level information. We cluster different stock indices and reconstruct the equity index graph from historical daily closing prices. We show that tail events have a minor effect on the equity index structure. Moreover, covariance and Shannon entropy do not provide enough information about the network. However, Gaussian clusters can explain a substantial part of the total variance. In addition, cluster-wise regressions provide significant and stationer results. Full article

In this paper, we consider a new corporate bond-pricing model with credit-rating migration risks and a stochastic interest rate. In the new model, the criterion for rating change is based on a predetermined ratio of the corporation’s total asset and debt. Moreover, the rating changes are allowed to happen a finite number of times during the life-span of the bond. The volatility of a corporate bond price may have a jump when a credit rating for the bond is changed. Moreover, the volatility of the bond is also assumed to depend on the interest rate. This new model improves the previous existing bond models in which the rating change is only allowed to occur once with an interest-dependent volatility or multi-ratings with constant interest rate. By using a Feynman-Kac formula, we obtain a free boundary problem. Global existence and uniqueness are established when the interest rate follows a Vasicek’s stochastic process. Calibration of the model parameters and some numerical calculations are shown. Full article

We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably high level of predictive accuracy. We also use variable importance measures to find that wavelet predictors are key predictors of crises. In particular, we find that real exchange rate appreciation and overvaluation, which are measured over a horizon of 16–32 months, are the most important. Full article

This study aims to assess Myanmar’s upstream petroleum fiscal regimes by applying comprehensive indicators to rank the level of attractiveness of Myanmar. The indicators include government take (GT), front loading index (FLI), and composite score (CS). The decision maker’s attitude for GT and FLI were considered in CS linear weighting method in ranking the fiscal terms attractiveness. The results showed that Myanmar’s upstream petroleum fiscal regime has low attraction compared to its competing countries from the investor’s point of view, both in terms of the risk to the investor in the earlier part of the project and in terms of evaluation with or without the time value of money. Also, royalty and cost recovery were identified to have an impact on the attractiveness rank of petroleum fiscal regime in Myanmar. Therefore, Myanmar should consider improving its fiscal regimes that are not neutral—particularly, royalty, tax, profit split, and cost recovery—for a favorable investment climate. Full article

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecasting performance of linear and non-linear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)–class models in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) and the Tadawul Industrial Petrochemical Industries Share Index (TIPISI) for petrochemical industries. We use the daily price data of the TASI and the TIPISI for the period of 10 September 2007 to 26 February 2015. The results suggest that the Asymmetric Power of ARCH (APARCH) model is the most accurate model in the GARCH class for forecasting the volatility of both the TASI and the TIPISI in the context of petrochemical industries, as this model outperforms the other models in model estimation and daily out-of-sample volatility forecasting of the two indices. This study is useful for the dataset examined, because the results provide a basis for traders, policy-makers, and international investors to make decisions using this model to forecast the risks associated with investing in the Saudi stock market, within certain limitations. Full article

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin rely on a proof-of-work system to validate transactions and prevent attacks or double-spending. A new proof-of-work is introduced which seems to be the first number theoretic proof-of-work unrelated to primes: it is based on a new metric associated to the Collatz algorithm whose natural generalization is algorithmically undecidable: the inflation propensity is defined as the cardinality of new maxima in a developing Collatz orbit. It is numerically verified that the distribution of inflation propensity slowly converges to a geometric distribution of parameter $0.714\approx \frac{(\pi -1)}{3}$ as the sample size increases. This pseudo-randomness opens the door to a new class of proofs-of-work based on congruential graphs. Full article

This paper described a theory of capital allocation for decentralized businesses, taking into account the costs associated with risk capital. We derive an adjusted present value expression for making investment decisions, that incorporates the time varying profile of risk capital. We discuss the implications for business performance measurement. Full article

This study aims to explain the role of economic freedom in attracting foreign investments and thus raising the level of economic growth. Through a study based on a sample composed of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. A standard model consisting of GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman) was used during the period from 1995 to 2017. We based on the analytical descriptive and secondly, we used a multivariate analysis based on the panel unit root test, the cointegration and finally the regression Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) following the existence of a long-term integration, which includes the modern standard methods to determine the role of economic freedom in raising foreign direct investment and thus economic growth in the second stage. The research findings from GCC countries support the literature, suggesting that there are indeed some indications that greater levels of economic freedom support higher rates of economic growth in a country. Full article

This study explores the determinants of initial coin offering (ICO) success, where success is defined as the amount of capital a project could raise. ICOs are a tool for startups in the blockchain ecosystem to raise early capital with relative ease. The market for ICOs has grown at a rapid pace since its start in 2013. We analyze a unique dataset of 278 projects that finished their ICOs by August 2017 to assess determinants of funding success that we derive from the crowdfunding and venture capital literature. Our results show that ICOs exhibit similarities to classical crowdfunding and venture capital markets. Specifically, we identify resemblances in determinants of funding success regarding human capital characteristics, business model quality, project elaboration, and social media activity. Full article

This paper investigates how deposit insurance and capital adequacy affect bank risk for five developed and nine emerging markets over the period of 1992–2015. Although full coverage of deposit insurance induces moral hazard by banks, deposit insurance is still an effective tool, especially during the time of crisis. On the contrary, capital adequacy by itself does not effectively perform the monitoring role and leads to the asset substitution problem. Implementing the safety nets of both deposit insurance and capital adequacy together could be a sustainable financial architecture. Immediate-effect analysis reveals that the interplay between deposit insurance and capital adequacy is indispensable for banking system stability. Full article

The objective of the study was to measure the risk-adjusted efficiency of banks in 24 emerging economies for the period of 1999–2013. A two-stage network data envelopment analysis (DEA), with separate deposit mobilization and loan financing stages was used. Efficiency was measured using directional distance functions with DEA, featuring non-performing loans as undesirable outputs. The distributions of efficiency scores were different when credit quality was taken into account. The distribution of efficiency scores varied systematically with accumulation of non-performing loans across regions. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 impacted more adversely the regions that had higher proportions of non-performing loans in banks’ portfolios. The results of a follow-on non-parametric regression showed that smaller, better capitalized, and private banks were more efficient. The conditions conducive for high levels of technical efficiency by banks were found to be characterized by economic growth and low inflation. Full article

After the Latin American Debt Crisis of 1982, the official response worldwide turned to minimum capital standards to promote stable banking systems. Despite their existence, however, such standards have still not prevented periodic disruptions in the banking sectors of various countries. After the 2007–2009 crisis, bank capital requirements have, in some cases, increased and overall have become even more complex. This paper reviews (1) how Basel-style capital adequacy guidelines have evolved, becoming higher in some cases and overall more complex, (2) how the United States (US) implementation of these guidelines has contributed to regulatory complexity, even when omitting other bank capital regulations that are specific to the US, and (3) how the US regulatory measures still do not provide equally valuable information about whether a bank is adequately capitalized. Full article

The cross-boundary Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect provides a special data set to study the dynamic relationships among volatility, trading volume and turnover among three stock markets, namely Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. We employ the Granger Causality test with the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to examine whether Stock Connect turnover contributes to future realized volatility and market volume of these three markets. Our results support the evidence of causality from Stock Connect turnover to market volatility and trading volume. The finding of this causality is consistent with the implication of the sequential information arrival model in the literature. Full article

The purposes of the study are to substantiate the influence of the specific features of insurance on the set of management accounting objects and to develop a mechanism of preparing the relevant information for insurance risk management. Management accounting allows generating reports, specially prepared for managers of various levels of control (in contrast to financial accounting, which considers information on the basis of general accounting rules). This allows realizing the main goal of management accounting; that is, providing information support for management decisions aimed at maximizing the organization’s profits. The object of research is management accounting in the information system of an insurance company. The stages in the execution of accounting procedures in a management accounting system are defined in the form of a diagram, the features of insurance affecting the organization of management accounting are classified, and an intracompany ledger of the connection between the segments of activity and responsibility centers is developed for insurance companies. Full article

This paper analyses the determinants of euro area non-financial corporate bonds since the early 2000s, so as to gauge deviations from the law of one price. We decompose the spread between the yield of German, French, Italian and Spanish corporate bonds vis-à-vis the German Bund of similar maturity into country, credit and duration risk premia components via dummy regressions. We highlight three main findings. First, the initial phase of the financial crisis (2008–2009) caused an overall increase in credit risk premia. Since the beginning of 2013 credit risk premia are back to levels comparable to those preceding the financial crisis. Second, at the height of the euro area sovereign crisis (2011–2012), high credit risk premia were accompanied by strong and persistent signs of market fragmentation in Italy and Spain (but not in France). This fragmentation has reached its peak in the second half of 2012 and has started to recede only after the announcement of the OMT. Third, we provide a simple measure of financial integration across the big 4 member states of the euro area. Full article

Both the scientific community and the popular press have paid much attention to the speed of the Securities Information Processor—the data feed consolidating all trades and quotes across the US stock market. Rather than the speed of the Securities Information Processor (SIP), we focus here on its accuracy. Relying on Trade and Quote data, we provide various measures of SIP latency relative to high-speed data feeds between exchanges, known as direct feeds. We use first differences to highlight not only the divergence between the direct feeds and the SIP, but also the fundamental inaccuracy of the SIP. We find that as many as 60% or more of trades are reported out of sequence for stocks with high trade volume, therefore skewing simple measures, such as returns. While not yet definitive, this analysis supports our preliminary conclusion that the underlying infrastructure of the SIP is currently unable to keep pace with the trading activity in today’s stock market. Full article

This paper examines whether the proliferation of new index products, such as commodity-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs), amplified the volatility transmission channel introduced by financialization. This paper focuses on the volatility spillover effects among crude oil, metals, agriculture, and non-energy commodity markets. The results show financialization has an impact on the volatility of commodity prices, predominantly for non-energy commodities. However, the impact on volatility is not symmetric across all commodities. The analysis of index investment and investors’ positions in futures markets shows that, when a relationship exists, it is generally negatively correlated with the realized volatility of non-energy commodities. Using realized volatility in the difference-in-difference model provides estimates that are inconsistent with other findings that non-energy commodities, traded as a part of indices, have experienced higher volatility. The results are similar to the index investment and futures market analysis, where increased participation by investors through new investment products has put download pressure on realized volatility. Full article

In this paper, we compare the transmission of a conventional monetary policy shock with that of an unexpected decrease in the term spread, which mirrors quantitative easing. Employing a time-varying vector autoregression with stochastic volatility, our results are two-fold: First, the spread shock works mainly through a boost to consumer wealth growth, while a conventional monetary policy shock affects real output growth via a broad credit/bank lending channel. Second, both shocks exhibit a distinct pattern over our sample period. More specifically, we find small output effects of a conventional monetary policy shock during the period of the global financial crisis and stronger effects in its aftermath. This might imply that when the central bank has left the policy rate unaltered for an extended period of time, a policy surprise might boost output particularly strongly. By contrast, the spread shock has affected output growth most strongly during the period of the global financial crisis and less so thereafter. This might point to diminishing effects of large-scale asset purchase programs. Full article