Journal of Risk and Financial Management — Open Access Journal

We highlight herding of investors as one major risk factor that is typically ignored in statistical approaches to portfolio modelling and risk management. Our survey focuses on smart-beta investing where such methods and investor herding seem particularly relevant but its negative effects have not yet come to the fore. We point out promising and novel approaches of modelling herding risk which merit empirical analysis. This financial economists’ perspective supplements the vast statistical exploration of implementing factor strategies. Full article

This paper examines the relationships between macroscopic determinants (typically, monetary policies) and microscopic factors (mainly, cash flows and other controlling variables) on corporate investment. By employing system-GMM estimation for the 250 Vietnamese non-financial firms, the authors find that the expansionary monetary policy not only encourages the borrowing activities but also results in more corporate investment activities over the period from 2006 to 2016. Noticeably, the internal cash flow is also significant factor, which enhances the activities of corporate investment. Finally, there are differences between internal cash flow effects on corporate investments between two groups, divided by three theoretical criteria. To recapitulate, our implications highlight the importance of monetary policy stability for sustainable growth in corporate investment in Vietnam. Full article

In this paper, we construct a sample of news co-occurrences using big data technologies. We show that stocks that co-occur in news articles are less risky, bigger, and more covered by financial analysts, and economically-connected stocks are mentioned more often in the same news articles. We decompose a news co-occurrence into an expected component and a shock component. We find that it is the shock component that arouses abnormal retail investor attention. The expected and shock components significantly predict return correlations 12 months into the future. Finally, a global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio with the covariance matrix augmented by the predictive power of news co-occurrences for future return correlations produces relatively superior performance compared to the benchmark GMV portfolio. Full article

Insomnia (and sleep deprivation) has an important impact on multiple outcomes such as individuals’ cognitive abilities, decision-making, and affect. In this paper, drawing from sleep research, we focus on entrepreneurs’ insomnia–health relationship and test a serial mediation model that considers entrepreneurs’ insomnia as an important predictor of their poor health. More specifically, we hypothesize that insomnia heightens entrepreneurs’ stress, which leads to increased negative affect, which ultimately undermines their health conditions. Using a sample of 152 Iranian entrepreneurs, we found support for our hypotheses as our results suggest that insomnia has a positive (and detrimental) effect on poor health (via more stress and negative affect). Contrary to research calls focused on stress reduction as one performance improvement mechanism, our results suggest sleep quality as a more effective mechanism for entrepreneurs to reduce their stress and to improve their health. Theoretical and practical implications, limitations, and directions for future research are also discussed. Full article

This study investigated the relative Granger causal effects of oil price on exchange rate, trade balance, and foreign reserve in Nigeria. We used seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1986Q4 to 2018Q1 to remove predictable changes in the series. Given the non-stationarity of our variables, we found cointegration to exist only between oil price and foreign reserve. The presence of cointegration implied the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The Granger causality result showed that oil price strongly Granger caused foreign reserve in the short period. However, no Granger causal relationships were found between oil price and trade balance and for oil price and exchange rate. The implication of the result is that Nigerian government should not rely solely on oil price to sustain her reserve but to diversify the economy towards non-resource production and export for foreign exchange generation. Full article

Determining distributions of the functions of random variables is a very important problem with a wide range of applications in Risk Management, Finance, Economics, Science, and many other areas. This paper develops the theory on both density and distribution functions for the quotient $Y=\frac{X_1}{X_2}$ and the ratio of one variable over the sum of two variables $Z=\frac{X_1}{X_1+X_2}$ of two dependent or independent random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$ by using copulas to capture the structures between $X_1$ and $X_2$. Thereafter, we extend the theory by establishing the density and distribution functions for the quotients $Y=\frac{X_1}{X_2}$ and $Z=\frac{X_1}{X_1+X_2}$ of two dependent normal random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$ in the case of Gaussian copulas. We then develop the theory on the median for the ratios of both Y and Z on two normal random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$. Furthermore, we extend the result of median for Z to a larger family of symmetric distributions and symmetric copulas of $X_1$ and $X_2$. Our results are the foundation of any further study that relies on the density and cumulative probability functions of ratios for two dependent or independent random variables. Since the densities and distributions of the ratios of both Y and Z are in terms of integrals and are very complicated, their exact forms cannot be obtained. To circumvent the difficulty, this paper introduces the Monte Carlo algorithm, numerical analysis, and graphical approach to efficiently compute the complicated integrals and study the behaviors of density and distribution. We illustrate our proposed approaches by using a simulation study with ratios of normal random variables on several different copulas, including Gaussian, Student-t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe Copulas. We find that copulas make big impacts from different Copulas on behavior of distributions, especially on median, spread, scale and skewness effects. In addition, we also discuss the behaviors via all copulas above with the same Kendall’s coefficient. The approaches developed in this paper are flexible and have a wide range of applications for both symmetric and non-symmetric distributions and also for both skewed and non-skewed copulas with absolutely continuous random variables that could contain a negative range, for instance, generalized skewed-t distribution and skewed-t Copulas. Thus, our findings are useful for academics, practitioners, and policy makers. Full article

In the current era of globalization and competitive edge, the survival of newly established ventures has become a big challenge. Numerous studies have been carried out to discover factors that are essential for newly initiated ventures but the results are still fragmented. This study focuses on measuring the effect of entrepreneurial strategy, network ties, human capital and financial capital on new venture performance. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 196 registered firms located in the emerging market Pakistan. The results indicate that entrepreneurial strategy, network ties and financial capital have a significant positive effect, while human capital showed an insignificant effect on new venture performance. This research recommends owners and managers of new firms build effective entrepreneurial strategies, expand their networks with external bodies (other firms, government and financial institutions) to acquire useful resources that in turn can spur their performance. Further implications are discussed. Policy makers and responsible authorities are advised to encourage and support new ventures which in turn can contribute to GDP and economic development. Practical implications and suggestions are also discussed. Full article

Income inequality in many middle-income countries has increased at an alarming level. While the time series relationship between income inequality and economic growth has been extensively investigated, the causal and dynamic link between them, particularly for the middle-income countries, has been largely ignored in the current literature. This study was conducted to fill in this gap on two different samples for the period from 1960 to 2014: (i) a full sample of 158 countries; and (ii) a sample of 86 middle-income countries. The Granger causality test and a system generalized method of moments (GMM) are utilized in this study. The findings from this study indicate that causality is found from economic growth to income inequality and vice versa in both samples of countries. In addition, this study also finds that income inequality contributes negatively to the economic growth in the middle-income countries in the research period. Full article

We examine the global legal entity identifier (LEI) system for the identification of participants in financial markets. Semi-structured interviews with data professionals revealed the many ways in which the LEI can improve both business process efficiency, and counterparty and credit risk management. Larger social benefits, including the monitoring of systemic financial risk, are achievable if it becomes the accepted universal standard for legal entity identification. Our interviews also review the substantial co-ordination and investment barriers to LEI adoption. To address these, a clear regulatory-led road map is needed for its future development, with widespread application in regulatory reporting. Full article

This paper analyzes the mean reversion property on the west African stock market (in French, Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières BRVM). For this purpose, we use two daily indices: (i) the composite index (BRVMC) and (ii) the index of the 10 most liquid assets (BRVM10) collected from 3 January 2005 to 29 June 2018. We estimate an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model with an EGARCH innovation to account for heteroskedasticity. The results suggest the existence of a mean reversion property for both indices. The half-life time is 7 days for the composite index and 2 days for the BRVM 10 index. Furthermore, using a rolling regression technique, we show that the estimated half-life time declines slightly for the composite index. Full article

The purpose of this study is to review recent developments pertaining to risk management in Islamic banking and finance literature. The study explores the fundamental features of risks associated with Islamic banks (IBs) as compared to those associated with conventional banks (CBs) in order to determine the extent to which IBs engage in effective risk mitigation. The study includes a consideration of the major studies in which the fundamental features of Islamic banks and finance (IBF) and the main characteristics of risk management in IBs are analyzed in comparison with those of CBs. Specifically, these two kinds of banks are compared in relation to the types of risks faced, the characteristics of those risks, and the nature and extent of exposure to those risks. A tabular methodology approach is used in concert with a comparative literature review approach for the analysis. The results show that there is weak support for Shariah-based product development due to the lack of risk mitigation expertise in IBs. The conclusion presented is that in comparison with CBs, IBs are more risk-sensitive due to the nature of their products, contract structure, legal costing, governance practices, and liquidity infrastructure. Furthermore, the determinants of the credit risk of Islamic banks in Malaysia (MIBs) are examined. Overall, bank capital and financing expansion have a significant negative impact on the credit risk level of IBs in Malaysia. Full article

This paper studies the behaviour of Bitcoin returns at different sample frequencies. We consider high frequency returns starting from tick-by-tick price changes traded at the Bitstamp and Coinbase exchanges. We find evidence of a smooth intra-daily seasonality pattern, and an abnormal trade- and volatility intensity at Thursdays and Fridays. We find no predictability for Bitcoin returns at or above one day, though, we find predictability for sample frequencies up to 6 h. Predictability of Bitcoin returns is also found to be time–varying. We also study the behaviour of the realized volatility of Bitcoin. We document a remarkable high percentage of jumps above $80\%$. We also find that realized volatility exhibits: (i) long memory; (ii) leverage effect; and (iii) no impact from lagged jumps. A forecast study shows that: (i) Bitcoin volatility has become more easy to predict after 2017; (ii) including a leverage component helps in volatility prediction; and (iii) prediction accuracy depends on the length of the forecast horizon. Full article

Over the past three decades, China and India have attained economic power close to that of Japan and the U.S. During this period, the importance of the derivatives market within the financial market has been widely recognized. However, little supporting evidence is available on its economic effects. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between the derivatives markets and economic development in these four large economies, which we consider together as the CIJU (China, India, Japan, and the U.S.) group. We use a Granger-causality test in the framework of a vector error correction model (VECM) to examine this causal and dynamic relation with data for the period 1998Q1 to 2017Q4. Derivative markets are found to positively contribute to economic development in the short run in the U.S., Japan, and India, but the effect disappears in the long run. In China, the derivatives market has a negative effect on economic development in the short run. However, in the long run, we observe a positive effect from the derivatives market on economic development based on two long-run estimation techniques, namely, dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares. Also, the development of derivative markets causes growth volatility in India, both in the short run and long run. Full article

This paper investigates tax competitiveness among the EU member countries. The tax competition of countries causes both positive and negative effects on macroeconomic processes such as the effectiveness of government spending, the rationality of supply of externalities, and the length and amplitudes of business cycles. A considerable reduction of corporate tax in the EU is related to increased tax competition after new members entered the EU. Multiple criteria methods were chosen for the quantitative evaluation of EU countries from different regions of the EU. Criteria of evaluation were chosen and structured into a hierarchy. The convergence process of the new members of the EU is reinforced with the increasing tax competitiveness of such countries. Results of the multiple criteria evaluation revealed both the factors that increased the tax competitiveness of new members of the EU, and outlined the factors that hampered such competition. Full article

In this study, I apply a quantile regression model to investigate how gold returns respond to changes in various financial indicators. The model quantifies the asymmetric response of gold return in the tails of the distribution based on weekly data over the past 30 years. I conducted a statistical test that allows for multiple structural changes and find that the relationship between gold return and some key financial indicators changed three times throughout the sample period. According to my empirical analysis of the whole sample period, I find that: (1) the gold return rises significantly if stock returns fall sharply; (2) it rises as the stock market volatility increases; (3) it also rises when general financial market conditions tighten; (4) gold and crude oil prices generally move toward the same direction; and (5) gold and the US dollar have an almost constant negative correlation. Looking at each sample period, (1) and (2) are remarkable in the period covering the global financial crisis (GFC), suggesting that investors divested from stocks as a risky asset. On the other hand, (3) is a phenomenon observed during the sample period after the GFC, suggesting that it reflects investors’ behavior of flight to quality. Full article

This study discusses the institutional investors’ shareholding base on corporate governance system in Taiwan. The sample was 4760 Taiwanese companies from 2005 to 2012. Then, this study established six hypotheses to investigate the effects of corporate governance on institutional investors’ shareholdings. The panel data regression model and piecewise regression model were adopted to determine whether six hypotheses are supported. For sensitive analysis, additional consideration was given on the basis of industrial category (electronics or nonelectronics), and the 2008–2010 global financial crises. This study discovered that a nonlinear relationship exists between the domestic institutional investors’ shareholdings. The managerial ownership ratio and blockholder ownership ratio have positive effects both on domestic and foreign institutional investors. However, domestic and foreign institutional investors have distinct opinions regarding independent director ratios. Finally, the corporate governance did not improve institutional investors’ shareholdings during financial crisis periods; instead, they paid more attention to firm profits or other characteristics. Full article

Machine learning research has gained momentum—also in finance. Consequently, initial machine-learning-based statistical arbitrage strategies have emerged in the U.S. equities markets in the academic literature, see e.g., ^{Takeuchi and Lee} (²⁰¹³); ^{Moritz and Zimmermann} (²⁰¹⁴); ^{Krauss et al.} (²⁰¹⁷). With our paper, we pose the question how such a statistical arbitrage approach would fare in the cryptocurrency space on minute-binned data. Specifically, we train a random forest on lagged returns of 40 cryptocurrency coins, with the objective to predict whether a coin outperforms the cross-sectional median of all 40 coins over the subsequent 120 min. We buy the coins with the top-3 predictions and short-sell the coins with the flop-3 predictions, only to reverse the positions after 120 min. During the out-of-sample period of our backtest, ranging from 18 June 2018 to 17 September 2018, and after more than 100,000 trades, we find statistically and economically significant returns of 7.1 bps per day, after transaction costs of 15 bps per half-turn. While this finding poses a challenge to the semi-strong from of market efficiency, we critically discuss it in light of limits to arbitrage, focusing on total volume constraints of the presented intraday-strategy. Full article

Research analysis of small enterprises are still rare, due to lack of individual level data. Small enterprise failures are connected not only with their financial situation abut also with non-financial factors. In recent research we tend to apply more and more complex models. However, it is not so obvious that increasing complexity increases the effectiveness. In this paper the sample of 806 small enterprises were analyzed. Qualitative factors were used in modeling. Some simple and more complex models were estimated, such as logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, gradient boosting, and support vector machines. Two hypothesis were verified: (i) not only financial ratios but also non-financial factors matter for small enterprise survival, and (ii) advanced statistical models and data mining techniques only insignificantly increase the prediction accuracy of small enterprise failures. Results show that simple models are as good as more complex model. Data mining models tend to be overfitted. Most important financial ratios in predicting small enterprise failures were: operating profitability of assets, current assets turnover, capital ratio, coverage of short-term liabilities by equity, coverage of fixed assets by equity, and the share of net financial surplus in total liabilities. Among non-financial factors only two of them were important: the sector of activity and employment. Full article

This paper investigates the determinants of the sovereign risk premium in African countries. We employ the dynamic fixed effects model to determine the key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Country-specific effects are fixed and the inclusion of dummy variables using the Bai–Perron multiple structural break test is significant at a 5% level. For robustness, the time-series generalized method of moments (GMM) is used where the null hypothesis of the Sargan Test of over-identifying restrictions (OIR) and the Arellano–Bond Test of no autocorrelation are not rejected. This implies that the instruments used are valid and relevant. In addition, there is no autocorrelation in the error terms. Our results show that the exchange rate, Money supply/GDP (M2/GDP) ratio, and trade are insignificant. Furthermore, our findings indicate that public debt/GDP ratio, GDP growth, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, commodity price, and market sentiment are significant at a 5% and 10% level. Full article