The sports betting industry has been growing at a phenomenal rate and has many similarities to the financial market in that a payout is made contingent on an outcome of an event. Despite this, there has been little to no mathematical focus on the pot...
Obtaining accurate estimates of the true probabilities of sporting events remains a long-standing problem in sports analytics. In this paper we propose a new domain-driven approach that infers true probabilities from betting odds. This task is not tr...
We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank proba...
The main purpose of this article was to define a model that could defeat the online bookmakers’ odds, where the betting item considered was the first five innings of major league baseball (MLB) matches. The betting odds of online bookmakers have two...
In this paper we develop a well-established financial model to investigate whether bubbles were present in opinion polls and betting markets prior to the UK’s vote on EU membership on 23 June 2016. The importance of our contribution is threefold. Fir...
Point process models have made a significant contribution to the prediction of football association outcomes. It is conventionally the case that defence and attack capabilities have been assumed to be constant during a match and estimated against the...
Rating systems play an important part in professional sports, for example, as a source of entertainment for fans, by influencing decisions regarding tournament seedings, by acting as qualification criteria, or as decision support for bookmakers and g...
In recent times, football (soccer) has aroused an increasing amount of attention across continents and entered unexpected dimensions. In this course, the number of bookmakers, who offer the opportunity to bet on the outcome of football games, expande...
Road curve attributes can be determined by using Geographic Information System (GIS) to be used in road vehicle traffic safety and planning studies. This study involves analyzing the GIS-based estimation accuracy in the length, radius and the number...
This study introduces a fully uncertainty-aware forecasting framework for NBA games that integrates team-level performance metrics, rolling-form indicators, and spatial shot-chart embeddings. The predictive backbone is a recurrent neural network equi...