International Journal of Financial Studies — Open Access Journal

This paper analyzed the most important aspects for the success of crowdfunding projects observing the Kickante platform, an important crowdfunding Brazilian platform. We found that the total value per project increased with the number of investors. The value per investor increased with the minimum value invested with rewards and with certain types of promoters (like informal groups or new companies) or with startups. Full article

Rule 144A allows a firm to issue securities without a public registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and only qualified institutional investors can purchase such securities. In this study, focusing on corporate bonds issued under Rule 144A, we empirically investigate the relationship between the corporate social responsibility (CSR) of issuing firms and the bond yield spread at issuance. We document a significant and positive relation between CSR concerns, whereas CSR strengths seem to play an insignificant role in determining bond yield spread. Our main findings are robust to the instrumental variable approach and simultaneous equation estimation to address the potential endogeneity issues. We further explore the time-series changes in issuing firms’ CSR profiles, and report that institutional investors demand a higher bond yield spread when issuing firms’ exposure to higher social, environmental, and stakeholder concerns. Our analyses reveal that the main sources of such risk exposure are stakeholder conflict and concerns from primary stakeholder groups. Full article

This study analyzes the firm-specific factors affecting the dividend payout decisions of the companies whose shares are traded on the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange. To this end, the dynamic panel regression is applied to 853 observations of yearly average of 106 companies listed on the Borsa Istanbul between 2009 and 2015. According to results from the Arellano–Bover/Blunder-Bond two-step system generalized method of moments, a statistically significant positive effect on dividend payout was found in the relationship between the dividend payout of the previous year, the company’s return on equity and the market value/book value ratio, liquidity and the company’s size. The demonstration of a positive relationship between dividend payout and return on equity supports the free cash flow hypothesis and the positive relationship with the previous year’s dividend payout ratio supports the dividend smoothing hypothesis for Turkey. Full article

This paper analyzes whether the Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations set by Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) have influenced the auditing fees charged to football clubs. In addition, it explores the determinants of audit fees. We used a two-sample t-test with equal variances to determine whether differences are present. After this, we carried out a panel data regression with the clubs fix effect to estimate the determinants of audit fees in football clubs. Our findings revealed an increase of audit fees after the implementation of FFP regulations. On top of that, audit fees were explained by the presence of foreign investors if the audit firm was one of the Big 4 and if the auditor was a woman. The regulation change has had an impact on the audit fees charged by auditors for their services. However, this increase may be compensated over future years given the improving financial situation of clubs; therefore, the auditors’ risk diminishes and subsequent audit fees may be reduced. UEFA should monitor audit fees as well as the quality of the audit reports, which have become crucial to obtaining the license to participate in UEFA competitions. Full article

Despite the globalisation of European soccer, each professional league exhibits specificities. French Ligue 1 sometimes contends with the trading-off of financial performance against sporting performance of its teams in European soccer competitions, and its inner auditing body, the Direction Nationale du Contrôle de Gestion (DNCG), is in charge of controlling clubs’ financial accounts. Moreover, Ligue 1 operates with one of the best competitive balances in the Big Five, which is detrimental to its clubs’ success at the European level. However, the league and a number of clubs have not been able to curb payroll inflation and have not avoided being recurrently run in a deficit and accumulating debts, in particular payment arrears and player transfer overdue. Lax management occurs, since very few clubs have been sanctioned by a payment failure, even fewer by liquidation, and there has been no bankruptcy. The concept of a soft budget constraint theoretically encapsulates such empirical evidence. The novelty of the paper is to establish a link between the soft budget constraint and the players’ labour market where it crucially triggers market disequilibria: an excess of demand for superstars’ talents and an excess of supply for journeymen players are modelled. Data paucity about player individual wages hinders econometric testing of the aforementioned link and the model. However, a look at transfer fees that concentrates on a few of the top European soccer clubs provides a first insight into the arms race for talent that fuels an excess of demand for superstars and dips a number of clubs’ finance into the red. Full article

The inability of carriers to forecast “demand for containerships” led them to order larger ships. Maritime economists were also unable to forecast it. The new-buildings cut cost per TEU, but “estimated economies of scale” are exhausted with ships beyond 21,000 TEUs, higher than the present. As average cost-AC was not at minimum, carriers did not produce at minimum efficient scale (MES). As larger ships are more competitive, smaller ships led to laid-up, and eventually scrapped. This strategy, however, did not bring the desirable balance between demand and supply. Due to falling demand, following the meltdown at the end of 2008, carriers priced their services at marginal cost-MC, and thus they accumulated losses. As a result, carriers resorted to frequent GRIs (freight rate increases). Supply exceeded demand and average distances fell after 2008. Containership market will remain depressed if economies of scale lead carriers to shipyards. Scrapping—the last hope—removed only 1/7 of the oversupply. Revenue, operating profits, and net profits, due to increased financial expenses, were lower than in the past. Aggressive ship-building programs could not be carried-out, because the depression meant that there are available only limited funds. The estimated funds required for new buildings were as high as $4 billion per carrier. So, the sector is in a vicious circle. The only helpful sign was the reduction in fuel prices after 2011 from $800/ton to $278 (2015). We also showed that ports and canals, through their traditional charging policy on size, penalized containerships for their efficiency—if volume discounts are not provided. Port dues and container handling and canal dues account for as much as 40% of the annualized containership cost. Finally, to study the relationship between concentration (market share) and revenue, operating profit and net profit, we ran three regressions; but only one gave a high correlation coefficient (0.97). This suggests that the containership market is purely competitive. We also showed that the Herfindahl index was 683 units (i.e., <1000) and Lerner’s index was 0.55—both indicating oligopolistic trends. Our model shows that containership market is either oligopolistic or purely competitive. This finding shows the double face of containership markets, which so much confused maritime economists. Full article

Crude oil is the dominant energy resource worldwide. The focus of this paper is on its historical behaviour and subsequent implications for the global economy with an emphasis on the lead–lag relationship between spot and future prices. The paper examines the behaviour of oil spot and future prices and their determinants during periods of market uncertainty, particularly in the context of economic and financial crises. The analysis highlights a key controversy within the extant literature, as to whether spot or futures prices are the main crude oil price indicator. The literature review indicates that the lead–lag relationship is a dynamic one, especially during periods of sustained uncertainty, which leads to significant disagreements and incongruities among researchers regarding the price that plays a dominant role. Full article

Through the three industrial revolutions, technology has enabled rapid changes in society. In a capitalist society, capital is invested where there is utility, for example, economic benefit. We intend to determine that the stock price of a company that uses a particular technology will change with the life cycle of the technology in question. Specifically, we filtered companies that mainly deal with augmented reality and are listed in Korea’s KOSDAQ market. We grouped these companies based on detailed technologies that constitute augmented reality. We used the event study method to calculate the stock returns against a benchmark. As a result, in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” stage, the portfolios of all companies using augmented reality generally show higher returns than the benchmark. However, it is difficult to ascertain whether a return generated based on one of the detailed technologies that make up augmented reality is higher or lower than that of the benchmark. During the “Trough of Disillusionment” phase, there was neither a consistent trend of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) nor buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR). However, during this stage, there was a positive correlation of average BHAR and average abnormal returns between the entire sample’s portfolio and each detailed technology firm’s portfolio. Full article

This article investigates the fundamental value of digital platforms, such as Facebook and Google. Despite the transformative nature of digital technologies, it is challenging to value digital services, given that the usage is free of charge. Applying the methodology of discrete choice experiments, we estimated the value of digital free goods. For the first time in the literature, we obtained data for the willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept, together with socio-economic variables. The customer’s valuation of free digital services is on average, for Google, 121 € per week and Facebook, 28 €. Full article

The “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) project was started by the Chinese government with the aim of achieving sustainable economic development and increasing cooperation with other countries. This project has five major objectives, which include (i) increasing trade flow, (ii) encouraging policy coordination, (iii) improving connectivity, (iv) obtaining financial integration, and (v) fortifying closeness between people. This paper aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries along “One Belt and One Road”. We selected seven developing countries which are part of this project, namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. We collected panel data for the period 1995 to 2016 from the U.S. Heritage Foundation, International Financial Statistics (IFS) (a database developed by the International Monetary Fund), and World Development Indicators (WDI) (a database developed by the World Bank). We applied Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) and threshold-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) (1,1) models to measure the exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we employed a fixed effect model to analyze the relationship of exchange rate volatility with international trade and FDI. The results of this paper revealed that exchange rate volatility affects both international trade and FDI significantly but negatively in OBOR-related countries, which correlates with the economic theory arguing that exchange rate volatility may hurt international trade and FDI. It can be concluded that exchange rate volatility can adversely affect international trade and FDI inflows in OBOR-related countries. Full article

The topic of contagion has gained importance in the last few decades, earning its place amongst the most debated topics in international economics. Contagion is a phenomenon where market disturbances in crisis times are observed to spread from one country to the other in the form of comovements in exchange rates, stock prices, bond spreads, capital and trade flows. Analysing contagion and, more important, being able to make an on-coming prediction successfully helps economic planners to take appropriate rectificatory action toward establishing stable macroeconomic conditions. In previous studies, various proxies for distance have been used to test their explanatory power on a suitable dependent variable, typically a crisis index. In this paper, the separate impacts of geographic distance, psychic distance and cultural factors are tested on the correlation of real exchange rate returns to assess their predictive power. Using a sample of 30 countries for a period of 24 years (1993 to 2016) and data at monthly intervals, a panel regression is conducted. The findings of the analysis are that there is a negative effect of all the three explanatory variables on the correlation of real exchange rate returns. Moreover, a rolling regression conducted across the whole period shows coefficients going back to zero just before a crisis event and tending to fall afterwards. These findings contribute to the literature on contagion analysis by taking a different approach and exploring the separate impacts of geographic distance, psychic distance and cultural factors as explanatory variables and assessing their predictive power. The findings of the research are thus useful for policy makers towards restoring stable economic conditions. Full article

Predictive modeling is a key technique in auto insurance rate-making and the decision-making involved in the review of rate filings. Unlike an approach based on hypothesis testing, the results from predictive modeling not only serve as statistical evidence for decision-making, they also discover relationships between a response variable and predictors. In this work, we study the use of predictive modeling in auto insurance rate filings. This is a typical area of actuarial practice involving decision-making using industry loss data. The aim of this study was to offer some general guidelines for using predictive modeling in regulating insurance rates. Our study demonstrates that predictive modeling techniques based on generalized linear models (GLMs) are suitable in auto insurance rate filings review. The GLM relativities of major risk factors can serve as the benchmark of the same risk factors considered in auto insurance pricing. Full article

We are pleased to announce the Special Issue on the Finance, Financial Risk Management and their Applications in the International Journal of Financial Studies. This Special Issue collects papers pertaining to several lines of research related to finance and financial risks. This Guest Editor’s note synthesizes the contributing authors’ propositions and findings regarding these developments and hopes that new areas can be opened for future researches. Full article

This paper studied the effects of credit to private non-financial sectors on income inequality. In particular, we focused on the distinction between household and firm credits, and investigated whether these two types of credit had adverse effects on income inequality. Employing cross-section augmented cointegrating regressions and using balanced panel data for 30 developed and developing countries over the period from 1995 to 2013, we showed that firm credit reduced income inequality, whereas there was no significant impact of household credit on income inequality. We concluded that it was not the size of the private credit but its composition which mattered in reducing income inequality, due to the asymmetric effects of different types of credit. Full article

In response to the financial crisis, a number of reforms to bank regulation have been introduced. Many of these reforms seek to improve the resilience of banks through making changes to their structure. In the U.K., the Banking Reform Act 2013 was enacted. This study attempts to examine the market’s reaction to this important financial reform, on the stock price of banks and insurance companies and contributes to the current regulatory debate. As reform proposals take time to get converted into Law, this paper focuses on three legislative events extracted from the Parliament website; the third reading at the House of Commons, the third reading at the House of Lords, and the Royal Assent, effectively the stages from which reform proposals convert to Law. This study employs an event study methodology, based on a sample consisting of 24 major banks and insurance companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) for which data are available from 30/11/2012 to 18/12/2013 covering all three events. The findings are that banks’ shares reacted positively, whereas insurance companies’ shares reacted negatively to the passage of the Banking Reform Act 2013 in the House of Commons (first event); insurance companies experienced negative returns, whereas banks’ returns did not react significantly in relation to the passage of the Act in the House of Lords (second event); and finally, banks’ shares reacted positively while insurance companies’ shares reacted negatively when the Act received the Royal Assent (third event). One of the main intentions of the Banking Reform Act 2013, was to contain the risk taken by banks. Market reaction on banks’ shares shows that the market accepted this; on the other hand, the negative effect on the shares of insurance companies would imply that insurance companies are perceived to have taken on some additional risk as a consequence of the Act. Full article

Price evaluations of municipal bonds have traditionally been performed by human experts based on their market knowledge and trading experience. Automated evaluation is an attractive alternative providing the advantage of an objective estimation that is transparent, consistent, and scalable. In this paper, we present a statistical model to automatically estimate U.S municipal bond yields based on trade transactions and study the agreement between human evaluations and machine generated estimates. The model uses piecewise polynomials constructed using basis functions. This provides immense flexibility in capturing the wide dispersion of yields. A novel transfer learning based approach that exploits the latent hierarchical relationship of the bonds is applied to enable robust yield estimation even in the absence of adequate trade data. The Bayesian nature of our model offers a principled framework to account for uncertainty in the estimates. Our inference procedure scales well even for large data sets. We demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our model by assessing over 100,000 active bonds and find that our estimates are in line with hand priced evaluations for a large number of bonds. Full article

The buy and hold stock market strategy, which gained tremendous popularity in the 1970s, may no longer be such a profitable method for accumulating wealth for the average investor in the new millennium. This paper investigates the relationship between compound return and holding period length to see how long an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) investment must be held before a positive return on principal is 100% likely. Because the ETF is a relatively new investment vehicle that could be considered particularly well-suited to the requirements of the buy and hold strategy, we begin our investigation here. We find that the compound returns earned over a rolling holding period are much more volatile than one might assume given historic rules of thumb for average return expectations. Using monthly return data for all listed NASDAQ ETFs between their date of inception and 2015, we find it takes ten years for the average probability of a gain on principal to be over 95 percent. Full article

This study investigated bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability in Azerbaijan, an oil-dependent economy in transition. A huge drop in oil prices, a significant devaluation of the national currency, and the financial distress were the main motivations of the study. We applied Panel Generalized Method of Moments to the data in the framework of dynamic model of the bank profitability. It was found that bank size, capital, and loans, as well as economic cycle, inflation expectation, and oil prices were positively related to the profitability, whereas deposits, liquidity risk, and exchange rate devaluation were negatively associated with it. We further found that the bank profitability demonstrated moderate persistence and ignoring the country-specific features could lead to bias and poor performance in estimations. The conclusions of this research would aid in setting banking policies towards increasing profitability. This may be supplemented by ensuring strong research departments within the banks tasked with analyzing and forecasting the main macroeconomic indicators. The novel features of the study include utilizing recent economic trends, accounting for country-specific features, and for the first time, examining the effects of the economic cycle on the bank profitability in Azerbaijan. In addition, the study featured proper addressing time series properties of the panel data, and performances of robustness checks for consistency of results. Full article

This study investigates that how investment banks select alternative valuation models to price Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and examine the value-relevance of each valuation model using the data of 88 IPOs listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) during 2000–2016. This study investigates that investment banks used Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and comparable multiples valuation models on the basis of firm-specific characteristics, aggregate stock market returns and volatility before the IPOs. In this study, a binary logit regression model is used to estimate the cross-sectional determinants of the choice of valuation models by investment banks. The results reveal that underwriters are more likely to use DDM to value firms that have dividends payout trail. The investment banks select DCF when valuing the younger firms, that have more assets-in-tangible, firms that have negative sales growth and positive market returns before the IPO; while comparable multiples are used for mature firms and firms that have less assets-in-tangible. Furthermore, this study also used OLS regressions to examine the value-relevance of each valuation model and Wald-test to examine the predictive power of cross-sectional variation in the market values. The findings unveil that P/B ratio has highest but DCF has lowest predictive power to market values. The Wald-test results depict that none of the valuation methods produces an unbiased estimate of market values. Full article