- Article
17 Pages
Dengue transmission has expanded across the Americas, but the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality recorded in death certificates and its ecological relationship with climate remain insufficiently characterized. Objective: To evaluate dengue-associated mortality recorded in Peruvian death certificates during 2017–2024, characterize geographic emergence across fixed provinces, estimate associations with local climate anomalies, and triangulate findings with epidemiological surveillance. Methods: We conducted a retrospective ecological spatiotemporal study combining the National Death Information System, national dengue surveillance, official population projections, gridded climate data, and a fixed 196-province framework. The primary outcome was an A90 or A91 code in any certificate position; province-month was the principal unit. Poisson models included a population offset, provincial fixed effects, calendar month, linear time, a 2020–2021 indicator, and temperature and precipitation anomalies at lags 0–3 months. Results: The updated snapshot contained 987 certificates with A90/A91 during 2017–2024; 968 were territorially eligible. Thirty-six provinces were classified as emergent. Surveillance contributed 772,387 notified cases, and department-year deaths and cases were correlated (Spearman ρ = 0.772). In the corrected primary model, the cumulative ecological mortality rate ratio comparing the 90th with the 50th percentile was 1.75 (95% CI: 1.41–2.17) for mean-temperature anomalies and 2.69 (95% CI: 1.97–3.67) for precipitation anomalies. Estimates remained positive under position-A, code-specific, syndromic, and temporal sensitivity definitions. Conclusions: Recorded dengue-associated mortality was concentrated during recent outbreaks and appeared in provinces without baseline-period mortality. Local climate anomalies preceded higher province-month mortality rates, but these ecological associations are compatible with indirect transmission and health-system pathways and do not establish direct individual-level effects.
Viruses
22 September 2026









