- Systematic Review
Shaping Future Urbanization: A Systematic Review of Predictive and Preventive LUC Indicators for Sustainable New City Development
- Achmad Ghozali and
- Walter Timo de Vries
New city developments (NCDs) have significantly increased around the globe, especially in developing countries, to accommodate population growth and foster economic development. However, the uncertain footprint of NCDs often introduces trade-offs between urban expansion and sustainability, underscoring the need for integrated land use change (LUC) management. This study adopts a system-level perspective on LUC modeling to identify indicators and formulate a predictive–preventive framework for sustainable urbanization in NCDs. A bibliometric and Systematic Literature Review (SLR) of Scopus-indexed studies was conducted to extract and classify relevant indicators. The results identified fifty-six predictive indicators across five domains—physical geography, climate environment, socio-economic, urban attraction, and policy and regulation—and two preventive dimensions—environmental sustainability and urban inequality. Predictive indicators reveal how internal urban dynamics drive land expansion, while preventive indicators address ecological vulnerability, spatial equity, and sustainability constraints. This cohesive framework enhances understanding of interrelated factors in urbanization across both city-scale and regional contexts. These insights support more adaptive and proactive land management strategies, have the potential to improve future LUC simulation accuracy, and provide theoretical and practical guidance for sustainable NDC.
17 November 2025






