Urban Science

This paper develops a formal model of urban evolution in terms of (1) sources of variations; (2) principles of selection; and (3) mechanisms of retention. More specifically, regarding (1) it defines local and environmental sources of variation and identifies some of their generative processes, such as recombination, migration, mutation, extinction, and transcription errors. Regarding (2), it outlines a series of selection processes as part of an evolutionary ecology of urban forms, including density dependence, scope dependence, distance dependence, content dependence, and frequency dependence. Regarding (3), it characterizes retention as a combination of absorption and restriction of novel variants, defines mechanisms by which these can occur, including longevity, fidelity, and fecundity, and specifies how these processes issue in trajectories define by properties such as stability, pace, convergence, and divergence. A conclusion reviews the effort and looks forward to computer simulation and data-driven applications, as well as focused theoretical extensions of parts of the model. This paper builds on Parts I and II and is part of the Urban Genome Project, about which more information can be found here. Full article

This paper is part II of “Towards A Model of Urban Evolution.” It defines a formal model of the Signature of an urban space, comprised of the information encoded in that space. This information consists of: an urban genome, which captures ideas regarding the groups (i.e., users) and activities (i.e., uses) to which a space’s physical forms are oriented; ideas among human actors regarding who (users) and how (uses) to utilize the space and its forms; and the signals that are communicated within and among urban spaces. Central to the model is the notion of the formeme, which provides the building blocks for a Signature. Formemes are units of urban information regarding physical forms, groups, and activities, which may be encoded in physical artifacts, signals, or human actors, and circulate among them. We then show how various metrics can define an urban area based on its Signature, and that these metrics can be used to measure similarity of urban spaces. The Signature, and its underlying formemes capture the sources of variations in urban evolution. Full article

This paper seeks to develop the core concepts of a model of urban evolution. It proceeds in four major sections. First, we review prior adumbrations of an evolutionary model in urban theory, noting their potential and their limitations. Second, we turn to the general sociocultural evolution literature to draw inspiration for a fresh and more complete application of evolutionary theory to the study of urban life. Third, building upon this background, we outline the main elements of our proposed model, with special attention to elaborating the value of its key conceptual innovation, the “formeme”. Last, we conclude with a discussion of what types of research commitments the overall approach does or does not imply, and point toward the more formal elaboration of the model that we undertake in “Towards a Model of Urban Evolution, Part II” and “Towards a Model of Urban Evolution, Part III”. In “Towards a Model of Urban Evolution, Part IV” we demonstrate the application of the model to Yelp data. Full article

This paper is part IV of “towards a model of urban evolution”. It demonstrates how the Toronto Urban Evolution Model (TUEM) can be used to encode city data, illuminate key features, demonstrate how formetic distance can be used to discover how spatial areas change over time, and identify similar spatial areas within and between cities. The data used in this study are reviews from Yelp. Each review can be interpreted as a formeme where the category of the business is a form, the reviewer is a group and the review is an activity. Yelp data from neighbourhoods in both Toronto and Montreal are encoded. A method for aggregating reviewers into groups with multiple members is introduced. Longitudinal analysis is performed for all Toronto neighbourhoods. Transversal analysis is performed between neighbourhoods within Toronto and between Toronto and Montreal. Similar neighbourhoods are identified validating formetic distance. Full article

Sustainability is a multidisciplinary developing science, and sustainable urban development focuses on socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental dimensions. Sustainable urban development is considered as a form of development covering urban spaces. Therefore, sustainability is regarded as one of the most important issues in urban planning. The present study aims to evaluate urban sustainability in nine regions of Tehran’s District 4 using the barometer of sustainability. The study area, covering twenty populous areas with various socioeconomic, cultural, and environmental problems, is located in the northeast of Tehran. The results obtained from overall sustainability and Prescott-Allen ranking indicate that regions 7, 6, 2, 3, and 8 are in medium sustainability level with the scores of 0.492, 0.484, 0.471, 0.411, and 0.457 respectively. However, other regions including regions 9, 1, 4 and 5 with the scores of 0.370, 0.330, 0.281 and 0.274, respectively, were found to be potentially unsustainable. In terms of human and ecosystem well-being, regions 2 and 3 gained the highest score, and regions 9 and 5 had the lowest scores. Based on the results, some practical solutions were provided to improve the sustainability in the area. Full article

This paper proposes that balancing public and private satisfaction in the creation of privately owned public space (POPS) might be the key to producing more efficient and effective POPSs. Seven qualitative techniques categorized into on-site observations, space syntax, survey, and regulatory review were used to gather data, and triangulation methods were used to derive conclusions. We then discussed methods for improving POPS planning and designs that prioritize both public and private sectors by assessing the indirect and direct benefits of POPS. Indirect benefits are delivered when POPS can elevate the pleasantness of the surrounding environment. In this study, users and tenants of the host buildings were found to obtain the most benefits with their easy access to POPS, while the public saw the existence of POPS as insignificant compared to local parks. Furthermore, the lack of good designs resulted in low public interest and awareness. Although developers gain direct benefits from bonus FAR, a less rigid but more comprehensive system is needed to increase developer motivation to create better POPS. Proposals that combine two or more POPS and regulations that require connection to existing public open space networks should be considered in future. Full article

The negative impacts of climate change on natural and anthropic ecosystems have led to the increasingly urgent search for policies, strategies and tools able to counteract degradation and risk factors on vulnerable landscapes. Among these, the research activity refers to water landscapes as a specific field of study that represents a fundamental resource for human well-being. In consistency with the international policy framework on integrated water management, this contribution develops a case study analysis focused on River Contracts as innovative, voluntary and negotiated planning practices aimed at the reconstruction of territorial, social and ecological values, which broaden the boundaries of safeguarding by integrating protection actions with sustainable management and environmental regeneration and to restore the identity of places and local communities. The description and evaluation of an ongoing experience of River, Coast and Landscape Contracts, developed along the coast of the Lazio region, allows one to point out that the process method is successful in solving complex issues related to the management of the river basin while involving social actors in order to improve people’s knowledge of the territory, increase social awareness of risk conditions, and allow local communities to propose and implement shared solutions. The results of this territorial and multi-level governance method are therefore measured on their capacity to produce territorial, social and environmental resilience. Full article

The urban heat island (UHI) effect is a serious health risk for people living in cities and thus calls for effective mitigation strategies in urban areas. Satellite data enable monitoring of the surface urban heat island (SUHI) over large areas at high spatial resolution. Here we analysed SUHI in the city of Stuttgart (Germany) based on land surface temperature (LST) data from Landsat at 30 m resolution. The overall SUHI in Stuttgart decreased by 1.4 °C between the investigated time periods 2004–2008 and 2016–2020, while the absolute LST increased by 2.5 °C. We identified local hotspots of strong warming and cooling in Stuttgart through the change in SUHI and categorised them based on the predominant land cover change occurring at the hotspot using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat as well as visual information on land cover changes from Google Earth Pro. The establishment of green roofs, as well as albedo changes, are predominantly responsible for cooling spots, while warming spots are mostly associated with the sealing of surfaces. This highlights that vegetation has a dominant influence on SUHI development in Stuttgart. Combining satellite-based LST data with visual information thus provides an effective method to identify local warming and cooling hotspots, which allows monitoring of the success of city policies against heat stress and guides future policy. Full article

Due to global urbanization, urban areas are encountering many environmental, social, and economic challenges. Different solutions have been proposed and implemented, such as nature-based solutions and green and blue infrastructure. Taking into consideration exogenous factors that are associated with these solutions is a crucial question to assess their possible effects. This study examines the possible explanatory factors and their evolution until the year 2054 of several solutions in the Île-de-France region: wastewater heat-recovery, surface geothermal energy, and heat-mitigation capacities of zones. This investigation is performed by a series of statistical models, namely the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the geographically weighted regressions (GWR), integrated within a geographic information system. The main driving factors were identified as land use/land cover and population distribution. The results show that GWR models capture a large part of spatial autocorrelation. Apropos of prediction results, areas with low, medium, and high potential for implementing specific solutions are determined. Furthermore, the implementation capacities of solutions are compared with the demand depicted as the need for slowing down the effects of surface urban heat islands and the dependence on fossil energy. Moreover, the heat mitigation capacities are not at all times distinctively linked to human activities. Further investigations are needed to discover the remaining possible reasons, particularly air quality, water, vegetation, and climate change. Full article

In this paper, I conducted a systematic review of the economic development literature from 1959 to 2020 to reveal the ebbs and flows of major research topics, combining the text mining technique with the bibliographic analysis. Topics such as “regional development” and “sustainable development” have gained importance over the decades, while “development strategy” has lost its prominent status. New topics such as “climate change” and “developing countries” have emerged in recent years. An analysis of the citation network reveals three distinctive research trajectories: One engages with the concepts of the creative class, human capital, clusters, and art and culture. Another centers around the topic of “regional development”, and a third, smaller group studies “new industrial district”. This study helps researchers understand the evolution of the roadmap in the field of economic development, properly situate their own work in the literature, identify influential citations, and discover novel research topics in need of further exploration. Full article

Visual aesthetic quality is the visual pleasure level that attracts people and makes them prefer certain areas. Visual aesthetic quality is valued and considered for urban forests but remains challenging. This could be due to a lack of understanding of visual aesthetic quality assessment variables based on visual aesthetic theories. This study supports an integrated conceptual framework based on the result of a systematic literature review study to describe and measure aesthetics that incorporates objective and subjective factors through urban forest visual character and urban forest visual quality. The results include defining and understanding a description of visual aesthetic factors and variables as well as a thorough explanation of visual aesthetic theories to comprehend how to assess the visual aesthetic quality of urban forests. This study agrees with and supports the visual aesthetic theoretical framework, and we believe that due to our shared evolutionary history, humans have a standard set of urban forest visual aesthetic features with preferences that change according to cultural and personal variances. Furthermore, this research provides a foundation of visual aesthetic variables of urban forests that will assist urban forest researchers, urban forest managers, and decision-makers in managing and protecting the visual aesthetics of urban forests. Full article

Accurate estimation of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is required for making effective climate change mitigation policies at the national level. Among major sources, municipal solid waste (MSW) is an important source of GHGs, such as methane (CH₄), generated during the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter. In Viet Nam, the emissions of GHGs are not well quantified, in particular from the MSW management system. In this study, we estimated emissions of GHGs from the MSW management system of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), considering the current waste management practices. In HCMC, landfilling has been a common practice of solid waste management. About 85 percent of the total MSW generated in the city has been landfilled at two landfill sites. Our estimates show that landfilling was the significant source of GHGs in HCMC, with a net contribution of 781.05 kg CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq.) per tonne of MSW landfilled. From the whole MSW management system, the direct GHG emission was 768.61 (kg CO₂-eq. per tonne of MSW) with avoided emissions of 72.47 (kg CO₂-eq. per tonne of MSW) through composting and recycling of MSW. The net GHG emission from the MSW management system was 696.14 kg CO₂-eq. per tonne of MSW (≈1.665 million tonnes of CO₂-eq. per year). The GHG emission data of this study may be useful to policymakers for making effective climate change mitigation policies. Full article

This study aimed to develop a balanced-based assessment framework to evaluate the effectiveness of Neighborhood Development Offices’ (NDOs) actions in improving the resilience of Tehran’s deteriorated neighborhoods against the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, considering the main missions of NDOs, 20 indicators were extracted from the literature and delivered to the offices and residents of target neighborhoods to prioritize them. Next, using a combination of the K-means clustering method and the balance-based conceptual model, the degree of balance between the measures taken by NDOs and residents’ needs in each neighborhood was determined. Finally, short-term actions (such as teaching health protocols, providing neighborhood services, and providing walking and cycling infrastructures) and long-term actions (developing public spaces, facilitating access to healthcare, and reducing social inequality) are suggested, which simultaneously promote balanced resilience against the COVID-19 pandemic and possible future pandemics in all aspects of NDOs’ missions. The framework presented in this research can also be used to evaluate and boost the resilience of other deteriorated neighborhoods with similar conditions. Full article

How just are risk responses that worsen vulnerability in the long term? Should the urban poor be left with self-reliance when facing hazards in the Anthropocene? This research investigates urban development and vulnerability in the Anthropocene. While it is known that informal settlements face greater hazards than most urbanized areas, there are different landscapes of risk. The analysis explores divergent risk-response strategies among households according to their residents’ risk perception and response capacity in two different landscapes of an urban delta using logit regression models. These models evaluate the associations between 14 response options to floods and control for factors of income, age, number of residents in the household, location, access to vehicles, and self-identified ethnicity. This study uses data from the Living with Floods Survey by the World Bank to investigate risk responses to the 2015 flood in the Jacuí River delta. The analysis considers a large sample of households (n = 1451) in informal settlements. The results show the intense influence of income on location choice and response capacity. We also found that income is a more robust social descriptor of response capacity than age or ethnicity. Risk perception proved limited in determining response strategies and can be associated with resignation to losses from floods. We argue that these results suggest trade-offs between short- and long-term responses to hazards in informal settlements in coastal and delta regions, which link adaptive behavior to environmental justice. Full article

Moving homes has long been considered stressful, but how stressful is it? This study is an original attempt to utilise a micro-level individual dataset in the New Zealand Government’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to reconstruct the Social Readjustment Rating Scale (SRRS) and thereby measure stress at a whole-of-population level. The effects of residential mobility on people’s mental well-being in the context of their stress-of-moving homes are examined. By using difference-in-differences analysis, this study scrutinises the stress level across movers, namely homeowners and renters (i.e., treatment groups) and non-movers (i.e., a control group). The results show that the change in residence increases people’s overall stress levels. Homeowners are more stressed than renters, with non-movers as the counterfactuals. Furthermore, the frequency of change in residences increases individual baseline stress levels. By progressing the understanding of such stresses, residential mobility researchers can contribute to broader discussions on how individuals’ interpersonal history and social mobility influence their experience. The whole-of-population-based SRRS will better advance our current ways of measuring mental stress at a population level, which is crucial to broader discussions of people’s well-being. Full article

Much research has documented the contagiousness of violence. Some of this work has focused on contagiousness as operationalized by the spread across geographical space, while other work has examined the spread within social networks. While the latter body of work struggles with incomplete network data, the former constitutes a theoretical mismatch with how violence should spread. Theory instead strongly suggests that violence contagion should diffuse through everyday mobility networks rather than just adjacently through geographical space. Beyond contagion itself, I argue that neighborhoods connected through mobility networks should serve as useful short-term sensors in predicting imminent violence because these sets of residents tend to experience shared environmental exposures, which may induce synchrony in the likelihood of violence. I explore this topic and these relationships using violent crime data from the three largest U.S. cities: New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Using two-way fixed effects models, I test whether or not violence in mobility-connected alter neighborhoods in the preceding hour predicts violence in an ego neighborhood in the next hour. Across all three jurisdictions, I find that recent violence in the neighborhoods to which a neighborhood is connected through mobility ties can strongly predict that neighborhood’s odds of subsequent violence. Furthermore, spatial proximity has no significant effect on the likelihood of violent crime after controlling for mobility ties. I conclude by arguing that mobility patterns are an important pathway in the prediction of violence. Full article

Traditional fuel-powered vehicle emissions have long been recognized as a major barrier to a sustainable environment, and their minimization could ensure both economic support for the sustainable societal fundament and pollution prevention. Electrifying light-duty vehicle fleets, such as taxis, could provide a financial return as well as bring significant economic and environmental improvements. This paper offers a ranked selection of electric vehicles that are presently available on the market, as reviewed by taxi service representatives, as well as their own evaluation of the criteria that influence this selection. This paper provides stability and support when making decisions by deploying stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis and a modified standard deviation method for calculating the subjective and objective weights of the criteria, as well as performing sensitivity analysis to determine how a particular criterion affects the multi-attributive border approximation area. A comparison ranking of the alternatives discovered how a change in the weight value of one of the criteria affected the ranking of the electric vehicle alternatives. According to the research, led by the battery capacity criterion and its values, the Volkswagen ID.3 Pro has the best results and is the taxi of choice in the Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Furthermore, the research has demonstrated that the development of electric vehicles for taxi service purposes should strive to extend the range of these vehicles while reducing the battery charging time. Full article

Envisioning the airport’s expanding relevance as a hub for passenger movement and its immediate ancillaries and as a focal point for inducing growth that embraces enormous conurbations and associated services, this paper seeks to identify factors likely to impact the regions surrounding the airport, especially from a viewpoint of planning and development. The rationale for focusing on these areas is to determine the impact of change in landside connectivity in an airport region on the hierarchy and interaction of settlements. In order to explore the objective, the application of GIS, as well as statistical analysis, has been undertaken for the selected case study of Bagdogra Airport, West Bengal, India in the North-East region and with geographically challenging terrain. Methodologically, this paper tries to identify changes in the various types of socio-economic and urbanizing factors to find out the impact of change in connectivity on settlement patterns in the region. It is evident from the results that, while visualizing the spatial structure of the factors affected in the airport’s region, the airport can be considered a pivot that induces urbanization and increases the number of amenities in its vicinity. As a result, it is apparent that large airports are transitioning from airport cities to new focus locations in the regions for the development of regional infrastructure that catalyze the phenomenon of urbanization. Full article

Coastal areas are fragile and changeable due to natural and anthropogenic factors. The resulting changes could have a significant impact on the coastal community. Thus, monitoring shoreline changes for environmental protection in the Selangor coastal area is an important task to address these issues. The main objective of this study is to analyse the pattern of shoreline changes and predict the shoreline position along the Selangor coast. The geospatial approach can provide information on the history and pattern of shoreline changes. This study used temporal datasets and satellite imagery (SPOT 5) to monitor the shoreline changes throughout the 11 identified study areas. It comprises three methods: shoreline change envelope (SCE), net shoreline movement (NSM), and end-point rate (EPR). The findings indicated that the Selangor coast was more exposed to the erosion phenomenon than to the accretion phenomenon, with 77.3% and 22.7%, respectively. This study reveals significant erosion phenomena in 2 out of 11 areas: Bagan Pasir and Pantai Kelanang. Meanwhile, significant accretion occurred at Bagan Sungai Burong and Sungai Nibong. Consequently, providing complete information would be helpful for researchers, decision-makers, and those in charge of planning and managing the coastal zone. Full article