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Econometrics, Volume 14, Issue 3

2026 September - 17 articles

Cover Story: This paper examines how a self-financed climate tax-subsidy policy affects output and employment to reduce CO2 emissions. We use a two-regime, CO2-based threshold autoregressive model that distinguishes between rising and falling emissions. Using the data of 16 OECD countries from 1995 to 2018, we find that equal, self-financing taxes and subsidies produce a dominant CO2-reducing regime, with significant threshold and marginal effects on output and employment. Panel variance-decomposition forecasts indicate that policy shocks explain more variance in output than other effects for up to three years and more variance in employment for up to four years. The study contributes by assessing neutral fiscal policy within a two-regime threshold framework. View this paper
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Articles (17)

  • Article
  • Open Access

This study estimates the conditional short- and long-run association between domestic-currency oil prices and real industrial value added in a panel of ten selected oil-importing economies over 1993–2024. The analysis employs a cross-sectionall...

  • Article
  • Open Access
9 Views
17 Pages

This study aims to determine how panel architecture, model complexity, and missing data conditions jointly affect the specificity of the Hausman specification test. A Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using 192,000 simulations (192 scenarios, 1000 r...

  • Article
  • Open Access
156 Views
22 Pages

We develop a framework for estimating a first-exposure effect (FEE) in a social program, defined as the difference between observed use and the counterfactual use absent any learning from first exposure. In administrative data, those never exposed ar...

  • Article
  • Open Access
691 Views
26 Pages

Age–Earnings Profiles Among Secondary Education Graduates: A Comparison of Econometric and Machine Learning Approaches for General and Vocational Education in Greece

  • Argyro Velaora,
  • Constantinos Tsamadias,
  • George Stamoulis,
  • Apostolos Xenakis,
  • Argyro Zisiadou and
  • Vasiliki Stamouli

Understanding earnings differences across general and vocational education is important for assessing labor-market outcomes among secondary education graduates. This study examines cross-sectional age–earnings profiles among full-time private-s...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
367 Views
22 Pages

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and financial determinants of the money demand of India from 1996: Q1 to 2024: Q4. The paper utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds testing framework and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to es...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancements in Macroeconometric Modeling and Time Series Analysis)
  • Article
  • Open Access
452 Views
34 Pages

Although stablecoins occupy a segment of digital-asset markets in which price stability is central by design, their temporary departures from reference values may reveal important information about latent risk and market stress. In this paper, we exa...

  • Article
  • Open Access
379 Views
19 Pages

Digital Adoption and Digital Maturity in Ecuadorian SMEs: A Cross-Sectional Econometric Analysis of the 2021 National Digital Skills Survey

  • Ely Borja Salinas,
  • Carlos Freire-Cadme,
  • Washington Guevara Piedra and
  • Washington Guevara Macias

The post-pandemic acceleration of digital tools has reshaped how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Latin America compete, yet the resulting maturity gains remain poorly understood in individual emerging-market economies. Ecuador exemplifie...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancements in Macroeconometric Modeling and Time Series Analysis)
  • Article
  • Open Access
617 Views
21 Pages

An Econometric Analysis of Alcohol Consumption and Its Relationship to Social, Gender, and Economic Factors

  • David Kerr,
  • Alex Russell,
  • Katherine Taken Smith and
  • Lawrence Murphy Smith

Alcohol consumption is associated with significant social and economic challenges for nations worldwide, including alcohol-related healthcare costs and alcohol-related crime. According to the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), even moderate drink...

  • Article
  • Open Access
842 Views
25 Pages

The relationship between capital structure and firm market valuation remains a central yet unresolved question in corporate finance, with outcomes shaped critically by industry-specific asset structures and financing environments. This study investig...

  • Article
  • Open Access
595 Views
18 Pages

We examine whether Walter’s model holds in that firms with greater growth opportunities would pay out less, using operating cash-flow-based payout measures that include only dividends, only repurchases or both. Two groups of explanatory variabl...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1,202 Views
29 Pages

This study investigates and explores the volatility dynamics of the South African rand against the US dollar (ZAR/USD) using the Family GARCH (fGARCH) model and the First-Order Beta-Skew-T-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Be...

  • Article
  • Open Access
781 Views
27 Pages

This paper investigates the responses of key macroeconomic variables—including output, consumption, investment, capital accumulation, and employment—to productivity and oil market shocks in Iran. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 2024, we...

  • Article
  • Open Access
614 Views
18 Pages

This paper offers estimates of the per-capita GDP growth trajectories consistent with zero growth in per-capita CO2 emissions using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variables (IVs). The focus is on six developed economies (Canada, German...

  • Article
  • Open Access
717 Views
28 Pages

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aims to diversify the economy away from oil by reallocating public expenditure from current consumption toward infrastructure mega-projects. This research estimates and compares the fiscal multipliers of government co...

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Innovations in Bayesian Econometrics: Theory, Techniques, and Economic Analysis)
  • Article
  • Open Access
517 Views
16 Pages

This paper addresses the output and employment impacts of a climate self-financed taxation/subsidy policy on CO2 emission reduction. We model balanced climate fiscal expenditure using a two-regime CO2-based threshold autoregressive model that separat...

  • Article
  • Open Access
935 Views
20 Pages

External Debt and Economic Growth: The Role of Institutional Quality in Lower- and Upper-Middle-Income Countries

  • Janaki Imbulana Arachchi,
  • M. B. Ranathilaka,
  • Wasantha Athukorala and
  • Shunsuke Managi

This study examines the moderating and threshold effects of institutional quality on the relationship between external debt and economic growth using panel data from 39 lower- and upper-middle-income countries over the period of 1996–2023. To a...

  • Article
  • Open Access
780 Views
13 Pages

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has introduced modern, high technologies that are automated, such as precision farming, to enhance agricultural production. However, this comes at the cost of human labor being replaced by machines that are deem...

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Econometrics - ISSN 2225-1146