Numerical Models and Weather Extreme Events (2nd Edition)

Dear Colleagues,
The topic of ‘Numerical Models and Weather Extreme Events’ comprises several interdisciplinary research areas that cover the main aspects of numerical weather predictions. Each year, hurricanes, extreme heat waves, tornadoes, and other extreme weather events occur, resulting in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in damage. The more accurate prediction of extreme weather further in advance could allow targeted regions to better prepare in order to reduce loss of life and property damage. It is evident that the rate of climate change is increasing, as are the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events; thus, the prompt prediction of these events has never been more important. The development of accurate local forecasts is notoriously difficult due to the complex physics driving heavy precipitation and intense winds. Weather forecasting requires supercomputers and trained local practitioners, thus narrowing its accessibility to wealthy governments and communities. Moreover, traditional weather forecasts, with a predictive scope of several days in advance, are very coarse in terms of resolution and, therefore, do not capture local extreme events. One alternative developed in recent years is the use of local observations to forecast weather up to a couple of hours in advance. In this regard, next-generation satellites bring great opportunities to further improve short-term forecasting. Artificial intelligence and machine learning breakthroughs are changing weather forecasting, such that resource-heavy regional weather models might soon be completely replaced by machine learning approaches. These innovative approaches use specific networks (GANs), trained via global weather forecasts, to correct for the biases that exist in current weather models. The new model downscales global forecasts to be as accurate as a local forecast, without requiring the vast amounts of computational, financial, and human resources previously required for such a small scale. In light of this, we welcome the submission of manuscripts addressing these exciting areas of development. Some examples of related subjects include the following:

• Current challenging areas in weather models;
• The assessment of a weather model’s ability to represent extreme weather events;
• Supercomputing applied to weather forecasting;
• Ensemble modeling;
• Monte Carlo simulations;
• Stochastic weather generators;
• The monitoring of weather and climate from space.

We look forward to receiving your submissions.

Yours faithfully,

Dr. Edoardo Bucchignani
Dr. Andrea Mastellone
Topic Editors