The Effect of Climate Change on Crops and Natural Ecosystems, 2nd Volume

Türkiye is one of the first regions where olives were domesticated, and olives reflect the country’s millennia-old agricultural and cultural heritage. Moreover, Türkiye is one of the leading nations in olive and olive oil production in terms of quality and diversity. This study aims to determine the current and future distribution areas of olives, which is important for Türkiye’s socio-economic structure. For this purpose, 19 different bioclimatic variables, such as annual mean temperature (Bio1), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and annual precipitation (Bio12), have been used. The RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the CCSM4 model were used for future projections (2050 and 2070). MaxEnt software, which uses the principle of maximum entropy, was employed to determine the current and future habitat areas of the olives. Currently and in the future, it is understood that the Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara, and Black Sea coastlines have areas with potential suitability for olives. However, the model projections indicate that the species may shift from south to north and to higher elevations in the future. Analyses indicate that the Aegean Region is the most sensitive area and that a significant portion of habitats in the Marmara Region will remain unaffected by climate change. Full article

Quantifying how climatic change affects wheat production, and accurately predicting its potential distributions in the face of future climate, are highly important for ensuring food security in Ethiopia. This study leverages advanced machine learning algorithms including Random Forest, Maxent, Boosted Regression Tree, and Generalised Linear Model alongside an ensemble approach to accurately predict shifts in wheat habitat suitability in the Central Ethiopia Region over the upcoming decades. An extensive dataset consisting of 19 bioclimatic variables (Bio1–Bio19), elevation, solar radiation, and topographic positioning index was refined by excluding collinear predictors to increase model accuracy. The analysis revealed that the precipitation of the wettest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the most influential factors, which collectively account for a significant proportion of habitat suitability changes. The future projections revealed that up to 100% of the regions currently classified as moderately or highly suitable for wheat could become unsuitable by 2050, 2070, and 2090, illustrating a dramatic potential decline in wheat production. Generally, the future of wheat cultivation will depend heavily on developing varieties that can thrive under altered conditions; thus, immediate and informed action is needed to safeguard the food security of the region. Full article

This review paper synthesizes the current understanding of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from field cropping systems. It examines the key factors influencing GHG emissions, including crop type, management practices, and soil conditions. The review highlights the variability in GHG emissions across different cropping systems. Conventional tillage systems generally emit higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) than no-till or reduced tillage systems. Crop rotation, cover cropping, and residue management can significantly reduce GHG emissions by improving soil carbon sequestration and reducing nitrogen fertilizer requirements. The paper also discusses the challenges and opportunities for mitigating GHG emissions in field cropping systems. Precision agriculture techniques, such as variable rate application of fertilizers and water, can optimize crop production while minimizing environmental impacts. Agroforestry systems, which integrate trees and crops, offer the potential for carbon sequestration and reducing N₂O emissions. This review provides insights into the latest research on GHG emissions from field cropping systems and identifies areas for further study. It emphasizes the importance of adopting sustainable management practices to reduce GHG emissions and enhance the environmental sustainability of agricultural systems. Full article

Rice is one of the most important staple foods globally, sustaining over half of the world’s population. However, the sustainability of grain production is increasingly threatened by heat stress, which is intensified by global climate change. Heat stress, characterized by temperatures exceeding crop-specific optimal growth thresholds, significantly impacts the rice yield and quality, particularly during critical reproductive stages. This review synthesizes current research on strategies to mitigate heat stress in rice through genetic and agronomic approaches. It highlights the implementation of advanced genetic tools such as marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection (GS) to accelerate the breeding of heat-tolerant rice varieties. Additionally, it discusses sustainable agronomic practices, including adjusting planting dates, optimizing water management, and crop rotation, which enhance resilience to heat stress. The objective of this review is to bridge the gap between research findings and practical agricultural applications, providing a comprehensive resource that guides future research directions and informs policy interventions. This review emphasizes the importance of integrating genetic innovations with traditional and modern farming practices to develop rice varieties that can withstand the adverse effects of heat stress, ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability in the face of climatic challenges. Full article

Ongoing climate change is having a profound impact on agriculture, which is attracting attention from the scientific community. One of its effects is an increase in average temperature, which is a key factor in grape cultivation. This may increase the popularity of viticulture in central Europe. The aim of this study was to assess the potential for the development of viticulture in central Poland based on SAT changes from 1975 to 2021, in addition to changes in evapotranspiration, occurrence of late spring and early autumn frosts and frosty days in selected years from this period as an important factors relating to climate change. The research utilized data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. The Bai–Perron test was used to determine the direction of temperature changes. An AR(1) autoregression model was used to predict SAT changes in central Poland for the years 2022–2026, based on the results of the Bai–Perron test. As part of the in-depth research on the SAT index, reference evapotranspiration calculations were also made as a second factor that is considered an important indicator of climate change. The Sum of Active Temperatures from 1975 to 2021 in the provinces of central Poland showed an increasing trend of 0.07% per year. The average SAT in central Poland in 2022–2026 is expected to range from 2700 °C to 2760 °C. Considering the current thermal conditions in central Poland and the forecasts for the coming years, it can be expected that vineyard cultivation will develop in this region. However, the research shows that the observed increasing trend in evapotranspiration, both in total in individual years and in the period of the greatest vegetation, i.e., in the months from May to the end of August, will result in an increasing need in central Poland to ensure adequate irrigation in developing vineyards. Full article

The nitrogen deposition process, as an important phenomenon of global climate change and an important link in the nitrogen cycle, has had serious and far-reaching impacts on grassland ecosystems. This study aimed to investigate the survival adaptation strategies of plants of different functional groups under nitrogen deposition, and the study identified the following outcomes of differences in biomass changes by conducting in situ simulated nitrogen deposition experiments while integrating plant nutrient contents and soil physicochemical properties: (1) nitrogen addition enhanced the aboveground biomass of grassland communities, in which Poaceae were significantly affected by nitrogen addition. Additionally, nitrogen addition significantly influenced plant total nitrogen and total phosphorus; (2) nitrogen addition improved the plant growth environment, alleviated plant nitrogen limitation, and promoted plant phosphorus uptake; and (3) there was variability in the biomass responses of different functional groups to nitrogen addition. The level of nitrogen addition was the primary factor affecting differences in biomass changes, while nitrogen addition frequency was an important factor affecting changes in plant community structure. Full article

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), an essential variable used to estimate crop evapotranspiration, is expected to change significantly under climate change. Detecting and attributing the change trend in ET₀ to underlying drivers is therefore important to the adoption of agricultural water management under climate change. In this study, we focus on a typical agricultural region of the Fenwei Plain in northern China and use the Mann–Kendall test and contribution rate to detect the change and trend in ET₀ at annual and seasonal scales and determine the major contribution factors to ET₀ change for the baseline period (1985–2015) and the future period (2030–2060) based on high-resolution gridded data and climatic data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicate that the annual ET₀ of the Fenwei Plain showed a significant decreasing trend in the baseline period but insignificant and significant increasing trends in the future period under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The annual ET₀ of the plain under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios increase by 4.6% and 3.0%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. The change and trend in ET₀ between the four seasons are different in the baseline and future periods. Winter and autumn show clear increases in ET₀. VPD is the major contribution factor to the ET₀ change in the plain. The change in ET₀ is mainly driven by the climatic variables that change the most rather than by the climatic variables that are the most sensitive to the ET₀ change. The change and trend in ET₀ in the plain showed clear spatial differences, especially between the eastern and western area of the plain. To adapt to the impact of climate change on ET₀, the irrigation schedule of the crops cultivated in the plain, the cropping system and management of the irrigation district in the plain need to be adjusted according to the change characteristics of spatial and temporal ET₀ in the future. These results contribute to understanding the impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration in the study region and provide spatial and temporal references for adaptation in managing agricultural water use and crop cultivation under climate change. Full article

On a global scale, rangelands occupy approximately half of the world’s land base surface; have a critical role in carbon sequestration and biodiversity; and support a diverse and critical economy, but at the same time, are under threat by many factors, including climate change. California rangelands, which are no exception to these aforementioned characteristics, are also unique socio-ecological systems that provide a broad range of ecosystem services and support a >$3 billion annual cattle ranching industry. However, climate change both directly and indirectly poses significant challenges to the future sustainability of California rangelands and, ultimately, the management of livestock, which has important economic implications for the state’s agricultural economy. In this study, we examined the changes in overall climate exposure and climatic water deficit (CWD), which was used as a physiological plant water stress gauge, to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on various rangeland vegetation types across California. We used two downscaled global climate models, MIROC and CNRM, under the ‘business-as-usual’ emissions scenario of RCP8.5 at a mid-century time horizon of 2040–2069 and known vegetation–climate relationships. Using the models, we predicted climate change effects using metrics and spatial scales that have management relevance and that can support climate-informed decision making for livestock managers. We found that more than 80% of the area of the rangeland vegetation types considered in this study will have higher CWD by 2040–2069. We evaluated these results with beef cattle inventory data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture by county and found that, on average, 71.6% of rangelands in the top 30 counties were projected to be highly climate-stressed. We found that current proactive and reactive ranching practices such as resting pastures, reducing herd size, and rotational grazing may need to be expanded to include additional strategies for coping with declining plant productivity. Full article

We evaluated the impact of weather and fertilization treatments (Control, PK, NPK1, NPK2, and NPK3) on winter wheat grain yields in a long-term trial in Ivanovice, Czech Republic, established in 1956. A total of 15 seasons were evaluated. The mean, maximal, and minimal temperatures in Ivanovice have been significantly increasing since 1961, with annual increases of 0.04 °C, 0.03 °C, and 0.05 °C, respectively. Precipitation has been decreasing annually by −0.54 mm (trend is insignificant). Four significant correlations between weather and grain yield were recorded. There were positive correlations between mean (r = 0.7) and minimal (r = 0.5) temperatures in November and negative correlations between mean temperatures in May (r = −0.6) and June (r = −0.6). The combination of naturally fertile chernozem soil and a beneficial preceding crop (alfalfa) enables sustainable cultivation of wheat, even without mineral fertilizers. The application of mineral nitrogen (N) significantly increases wheat grain yield and yield stability. Without mineral N or with high doses of mineral N, yield stability decreases. According to two response models (quadratic and quadratic-plateau), a reasonable dose of fertilizer is 107 kg ha⁻¹ N for modern wheat varieties, corresponding to a yield of 8.1 t ha⁻¹. Full article