Economies

61 pages, 2202 KB

Open AccessArticle

Deterministic and Stochastic Macrodynamic Models for Developing Economies’ Policies: An Analysis of the Brazilian Economy

by Milton Biage, Pierre Joseph Nelcide and Guilherme de Ferreira Lima, Jr.

Economies 2025, 13(11), 312; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110312 - 31 Oct 2025

Abstract

This work verifies the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in Brazil, involving real GDP, the Interest index, Inflation index, real Exchange rate, and actual public debt, using empirical data from January 1998 to December 2018 to calibrate the model. In the analyses, [...] Read more.

This work verifies the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in Brazil, involving real GDP, the Interest index, Inflation index, real Exchange rate, and actual public debt, using empirical data from January 1998 to December 2018 to calibrate the model. In the analyses, we employ macrodynamic deterministic and stochastic models of differential equations to examine the interconnection of the endogenous variables and the stability of Brazilian economic policy. In the stochastic model, we introduced stochastic perturbations in the uncontrollable coefficients and additive random walks affecting the endogenous variables. Shocks imposed on the structured dynamic model showed that stochastic innovations propagate more strongly in the monetary variables: inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. We have also established forecasts for endogenous variables from January 2019 to December 2026 and conducted backtest analyses using the empirical data observed for the endogenous variables from January 2019 to December 2023. The forecast estimations were demonstrated to be satisfactory. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Applied Economics: Trade, Growth and Policy Modeling)

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21 pages, 1379 KB

Open AccessArticle

Urban Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Under Displacement Pressures: Evidence from Tigray, Ethiopia

by Yibrah Hagos Gebresilassie, Hafte Gebreslassie Gebrihet and Beyene Gebremichael Gessesow

Economies 2025, 13(11), 311; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110311 - 31 Oct 2025

Abstract

Food insecurity remains a pressing challenge in conflict zones, where disrupted livelihoods, mass displacement, and eroded institutional support increase household risk. The armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region erupted in November 2020, devastating infrastructure, displacing over a million people, and amplifying urban hunger. [...] Read more.

Food insecurity remains a pressing challenge in conflict zones, where disrupted livelihoods, mass displacement, and eroded institutional support increase household risk. The armed conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region erupted in November 2020, devastating infrastructure, displacing over a million people, and amplifying urban hunger. This study assessed the effects of war-induced internal displacement on the vulnerability of urban households to food insecurity (VFI) in Tigray’s host communities. Using cross-sectional data from 560 households surveyed in May–June 2024, we computed food insecurity using the Household Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and applied ordered logit regression to identify the drivers of VFI. The findings indicate that 14.46% of households were food-secure, with 21.43%, 35.54%, and 28.57% facing mild, moderate, and severe vulnerability, respectively. Significant predictors included household head age, education, widowed status (especially for women), and humanitarian aid receipt, allied with displacement scale and conflict damages, which elevated vulnerability. These results underscore the need for integrated interventions that blend emergency aid with livelihood restoration. Policies must target at-risk groups, rebuild assets, and enhance access to education and financial resources. Ultimately, facilitating the repatriation of internally displaced persons is vital for post-conflict recovery in the Tigray and analogous settings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Food Security and Healthy Nutrition)

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27 pages, 547 KB

Open AccessArticle

Derivation of the Pareto Index in the Economic System as a Scale-Free Network and Introduction of New Parameters to Monitor Optimal Wealth and Income Distributions

by John G. Ingersoll

Economies 2025, 13(11), 310; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110310 - 30 Oct 2025

Abstract

The purpose of this work is twofold: first, it aims to derive an exact analytical form of the Pareto index based on the already developed model of the economy as a scale-free network comprising a given amount of either wealth or income (total [...] Read more.

The purpose of this work is twofold: first, it aims to derive an exact analytical form of the Pareto index based on the already developed model of the economy as a scale-free network comprising a given amount of either wealth or income (total number of links, each link representing a non-zero amount or quantum of income or wealth) distributed among its variable number of actors (nodes), all of whom have equal access to the system), and second, it aims to employ the derived analytical form of the Pareto index to determine the degree to which the observed inequality in wealth and in income as measured by the respective empirical values of the Pareto index is inherent in the economic system rather than the result of externally imposed factors invariably reflecting a lack of equal access. The derived analytical form of the Pareto index for wealth or for income is described by an exponential function whose exponent is the inverse of the average number of wealth or of income per actor (one-half of the average number of links per node) in the economic model. This exponent features prominently in the scale-free model of the economy and has a numerical value of 0.69 when the Pareto index attains a numerical value of 2, which signifies the optimal, albeit still unequal, distribution of wealth or of income in the economy under the condition of equal access. Because of the correspondence of the scale-free model of the economy to a physical system comprising quantum particles such as photons in thermodynamic equilibrium or state of maximum entropy in accordance with the laws of statistical mechanics, the inverse of the exponent is proportional to the temperature of the economic system, and a new parameter introduced to describe in a comprehensible manner the deviation in the economic system from its optimal distribution of wealth or income. A comparison of the empirical wealth and income Pareto indexes based on economic data for the four largest economies in the word, i.e., USA, China, Germany, and Japan, which account for over 50% of the global GDP, versus the corresponding optimal values per the scale-free model of the economy reveals interesting trends that can be explained away by the prevailing degrees of equal access, as manifested by inadequate education, health care, and housing, as well as the existence of rules and institutions favoring certain actors over others, particularly with regard to the accumulation of wealth. It has also been determined that the newly introduced parameters in the scale-free model of the economy of temperature as well as the quanta of wealth and of income should be expressed in power purchase exchange rates for meaningful comparisons among national economies over time. Full article

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26 pages, 624 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Digital Literacy on Rural Women’s Non-Agricultural Employment—Evidence from China

by Su Peng and Xihao Feng

Economies 2025, 13(11), 309; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110309 - 30 Oct 2025

Abstract

The rapid popularization of digital technology is profoundly altering the employment landscape; especially in rural areas, the digital economy has opened up unprecedented channels to narrow the gender gap in non-agricultural employment. This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) [...] Read more.

The rapid popularization of digital technology is profoundly altering the employment landscape; especially in rural areas, the digital economy has opened up unprecedented channels to narrow the gender gap in non-agricultural employment. This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2020, employing a two-way fixed effects model to systematically examine the impact of digital literacy on the non-agricultural employment transition of rural women. The findings demonstrate that integrating social learning theory with digital empowerment theory establishes a dual-pathway analytical framework for examining psychological capital and information environments. Through skill development and resource optimization, digital literacy significantly enhances rural women’s employment participation and occupational re-adaptability, with these effects varying across regions and generations. Furthermore, the study reveals how household economic resources and regional development levels exert differential influences on these outcomes by affecting the acquisition and application of digital skills. These findings expand theoretical understanding of non-agricultural employment mechanisms in the digital era and offer practical policy insights. They also provide evidence-based strategies for enhancing women’s employment quality, advancing gender equality, and promoting rural revitalization, offering valuable guidance for developing countries navigating employment challenges through digital transformation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development)

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25 pages, 2033 KB

Open AccessArticle

Graph Neural Networks and Explainable Spillovers: Global Monetary and Oil Shocks in GCC Financial Markets

by Amer Morshed

Economies 2025, 13(11), 308; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110308 - 29 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study investigates how global monetary and oil shocks propagate across advanced and pegged oil economies, focusing on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2015–2023. It examines which transmission channels—liquidity, credit, or [...] Read more.

This study investigates how global monetary and oil shocks propagate across advanced and pegged oil economies, focusing on the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 2015–2023. It examines which transmission channels—liquidity, credit, or equity—serve as the dominant conduits of spillovers under fixed exchange rate regimes. To address this question, this paper develops a hybrid causal–computational framework that integrates high-frequency identification of monetary and oil shocks with econometric benchmarks (Local Projections and Time-Varying Parameter VARs) and a Graph Neural Network-based Causal Shock Network (GNN-CSN) enhanced with SHAP explainability. The results show that global monetary shocks significantly raise interbank funding costs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while sovereign credit spreads remain largely stable, indicating that liquidity—not credit—constitutes the main transmission channel. Equity markets absorb much of the external adjustment, reflecting sectoral sensitivity to global cycles. By combining causal identification, dynamic estimation, and explainable machine learning, the framework improves predictive accuracy and transparency, offering new evidence on how external shocks shape financial dynamics in resource-dependent, dollar-pegged economies. Full article

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18 pages, 307 KB

Open AccessArticle

Are Institutions, Innovation, and Education the Key to Sustainable Growth in G20 Economies?

by Fırat Cem Dogan

Economies 2025, 13(11), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110307 - 28 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study aims to examine the fundamental determinants of economic growth in G20 countries in the context of institutional structure, innovation, and education. The significance of the research lies in revealing that sustainable economic growth is shaped not only by traditional macroeconomic factors [...] Read more.

This study aims to examine the fundamental determinants of economic growth in G20 countries in the context of institutional structure, innovation, and education. The significance of the research lies in revealing that sustainable economic growth is shaped not only by traditional macroeconomic factors but also by the effectiveness of institutions, innovation capacity, and human capital investments. The existing literature contains limited studies that comprehensively address the interactions between these three variables and economic growth, specifically in G20 countries. The study applies panel data analysis to G20 countries for the period 2005–2024 and performs panel Granger causality analysis using fixed and random effects models after horizontal section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests. Empirical findings show that institutions, innovation, and education variables have significant and positive effects on economic growth. Granger causality test results reveal that these variables unidirectionally drive growth, while growth has no feedback effect on these factors. The findings indicate that strengthening institutional reforms, encouraging R&D and innovation investments, and increasing human capital capacity are critical for sustainable and high-quality economic growth for policymakers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Nexus of Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence in a Changing Global Economy)

23 pages, 322 KB

Open AccessArticle

Following the Crowd: Unveiling the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks and Monetary Policy Shifts on Herding Dynamics in the Bangladesh Equity Market

by Muhammad Enamul Haque and Mahmood Osman Imam

Economies 2025, 13(11), 306; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110306 - 28 Oct 2025

Abstract

The study examines the dynamics of herding behavior in relation to macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy shifts in the Bangladesh equity market. By employing robust empirical methodologies across distinct market states including bullish, bearish, crisis, extended crisis, and COVID-19 phases, we first demonstrate [...] Read more.

The study examines the dynamics of herding behavior in relation to macroeconomic shocks and monetary policy shifts in the Bangladesh equity market. By employing robust empirical methodologies across distinct market states including bullish, bearish, crisis, extended crisis, and COVID-19 phases, we first demonstrate that herding prevails under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Based on this foundation, we examine how exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate shifts alongside changes in deposit rates and reserve requirements serve as catalysts for collective investor behavior. The findings demonstrate that depreciation of the domestic currency and reductions in interest rates result in significant intensification of herding during vulnerable market phases. Moreover, monetary policy adjustments, predominantly changes in deposit rates and reserve ratios, trigger coordinated trading responses, especially during bearish and crisis markets. These results reveal the profound sensitivity of frontier equity markets to macro-financial signals and underscore the critical role of policy communication and stability in mitigating destabilizing herd dynamics. By bridging macroeconomic policy and investor psychology in a frontier market context, this research offers practical insights that can help regulators and policymakers improve market resilience. Full article

17 pages, 1264 KB

Open AccessArticle

Cost Analysis of COVID-19 in Australia

by Imalka Wasana Rathnayaka, Rasheda Khanam and Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

Economies 2025, 13(11), 305; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110305 - 27 Oct 2025

Abstract

Access to accurate and reliable information on the cost of COVID-19 is essential for informed socio-economic policy decisions. This paper analyses the economic costs associated with the COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with a particular focus on Australia. This study examined both the macroeconomic costs measured [...] Read more.

Access to accurate and reliable information on the cost of COVID-19 is essential for informed socio-economic policy decisions. This paper analyses the economic costs associated with the COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with a particular focus on Australia. This study examined both the macroeconomic costs measured as the foregone gross domestic product attributable to the pandemic and the direct and indirect costs to society. Using a bottom-up costing approach and the WHO-CHOICE model, this study estimates the direct and indirect economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Australian economy. The analysis draws on quarterly and fortnightly data from 2020 to 2022, the period during which the pandemic exerted its most severe economic effects. The results indicate that the per-day inpatient unit cost is estimated at AUD 836, representing the minimum benchmark for direct health costs. The WHO-CHOICE model identifies key determinants of inpatient hospital costs, including hospital bed occupancy, GDP per capita, and hospital admissions, which are found to be highly responsive to changes in inpatient costs. In terms of indirect effects, GDP fell by 1.9 percent below its projected no-COVID level in the first quarter of 2021. Based on these empirical findings, this study proposes several important policy recommendations to enhance economic resilience and healthcare preparedness in future public health crises. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Public Health Emergencies and Economic Development)

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26 pages, 7511 KB

Open AccessArticle

Resident-Centred Rural Development Through Place Marketing: Complexity, Sustainability, and Economic Indicators

by Beáta Kádár and Regina Zsuzsánna Reicher

Economies 2025, 13(11), 304; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13110304 - 27 Oct 2025

Abstract

Despite the growing importance of rural development, research on place marketing remains fragmented, with no comprehensive systematic literature review (SLR) addressing this field with such focus and detail. The study aims to systematically map scientific publications on place marketing, with a particular focus [...] Read more.

Despite the growing importance of rural development, research on place marketing remains fragmented, with no comprehensive systematic literature review (SLR) addressing this field with such focus and detail. The study aims to systematically map scientific publications on place marketing, with a particular focus on the perspectives of the general public in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The research design follows the PRISMA 2020 (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines to ensure transparency and reproducibility of the search process. Using VOSviewer and complementary content analysis, we identified conceptual clusters and traced major thematic trends, revealing the persistent marginalisation of residents’ perspectives and the dominance of competitiveness-oriented approaches. The findings highlight underexplored areas such as community participation, social well-being, and governance mechanisms. Building on these insights, we propose a resident-centred decision-support framework that integrates economic indicators, stakeholder engagement, and sustainability dimensions into rural governance. This framework not only advances theoretical understanding but also provides practical guidance for policymakers and local leaders seeking more resilient, inclusive, and adaptive rural development pathways—particularly within the underrepresented contexts of Central and Eastern Europe. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Indicators Relating to Rural Development)

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34 pages, 7198 KB

Open AccessArticle

Bibliometric and Content Analysis on Central Bank Digital Currencies for the Period 2018–2025 and a Policy Model Proposal for Türkiye

by Ayşegül Bilgiç Ulun

Economies 2025, 13(10), 303; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100303 - 21 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the development of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) concept and create a design suitable for Turkey’s financial structure. Academic studies scanned in the Web of Science (WOS) database between 2018–2025 were analyzed by bibliometric and content analysis [...] Read more.

This study aims to analyze the development of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) concept and create a design suitable for Turkey’s financial structure. Academic studies scanned in the Web of Science (WOS) database between 2018–2025 were analyzed by bibliometric and content analysis methods. Most of the studies focused on economics, and the most frequently emphasized topics in the 40 studies analyzed in the content analysis were the importance of CBDC design, its effects on the banking sector, and CBDC with interest rates. By analyzing Turkey’s tax revenues, informal economy, and interest rates, we propose an account-based, interest-bearing retail CBDC model that provides individuals with direct access to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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16 pages, 679 KB

Open AccessArticle

Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Search-Matching Model of Labor Market Fluctuations

by Ruxin Chen

Economies 2025, 13(10), 302; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100302 - 20 Oct 2025

Abstract

Shimer documents that the search-and-matching model driven by productivity shocks explains only a small share of the observed volatility of unemployment and vacancies, which is known as the Shimer puzzle. We revisit this evidence by replacing the representative firm’s optimization with a deep [...] Read more.

Shimer documents that the search-and-matching model driven by productivity shocks explains only a small share of the observed volatility of unemployment and vacancies, which is known as the Shimer puzzle. We revisit this evidence by replacing the representative firm’s optimization with a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent that learns its vacancy-posting policy through interaction in a Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides (DMP) model. Comparing the learning economy with a conventional log-linearized DSGE solution under the same parameters, we find that while both frameworks preserve a downward-sloping Beveridge curve, learning-based economy produces much higher volatility in key labor market variables and returns to a steady state more slowly after shocks. These results point to bounded rationality and endogenous learning as mechanisms for labor market fluctuations and suggest that reinforcement learning can serve as a useful complement to standard macroeconomic analysis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Advanced Techniques and Modeling in Business and Economics)

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27 pages, 4460 KB

Open AccessArticle

Mapping China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Europe: Developments and Challenges

by Sara Casagrande and Bruno Dallago

Economies 2025, 13(10), 301; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100301 - 19 Oct 2025

Abstract

Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was originally devised to link East Asia and Europe through a network of physical and digital infrastructure. This article analyses the BRI’s development in the European context by offering a comparative analysis of 727 [...] Read more.

Launched in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was originally devised to link East Asia and Europe through a network of physical and digital infrastructure. This article analyses the BRI’s development in the European context by offering a comparative analysis of 727 BRI and BRI-like projects within 46 European countries from 2005 to 2021. The analysis considers projects’ location, typology, status, and the main enterprises involved in each project. According to our results, there is a “two-speed Europe”. Indeed, while the vast majority of projects are included in the Digital Silk Road (e.g., telecommunication, transfer technology, data centre, 5G, fintech) and are located in North-Western Europe, traditional investments in infrastructure (e.g., ports, roads, railways, SEZ) are concentrated in South-Eastern Europe and the Balkan countries. While North-Western Europe is particularly concerned about cyber security and data protection issues, various South-Eastern European countries look favorably upon the development opportunities offered by the BRI. The BRI is clearly different from the Western approach to development (based on competition and economic liberalism) and integration (based on treaties). The BRI approach—including its platform, leveraging political flexibility, economic pragmatism, ability to mobilize resources, and ability to create synergies between state and business—could take advantage of the flaws of the European integration process. The BRI, with its strengths as well as weaknesses, represents an opportunity for the EU to understand the need for greater economic and political foresight, social cohesion, and economic flexibility to meet the development needs of its member countries. China, too, can draw inspiration from cooperating with EU countries on how to improve the reception of its investment initiatives by focusing on reciprocity, security guarantees, and protection of rights and the environment. Full article

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16 pages, 317 KB

Open AccessArticle

The Non-Linear Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth in African Economies: The Role of Financial Stability, Investment, and Governance Quality

by Makram Nouaili

Economies 2025, 13(10), 300; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100300 - 17 Oct 2025

Abstract

This paper estimates a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics model in the threshold panel data framework to study the extent to which the quality of governance, investment, and financial stability affect the impact of external debt on economic growth in 47 African countries from 2002 [...] Read more.

This paper estimates a nonlinear asymmetric dynamics model in the threshold panel data framework to study the extent to which the quality of governance, investment, and financial stability affect the impact of external debt on economic growth in 47 African countries from 2002 to 2022. As a general approach, we use the first-differenced GMM estimator, which allows both threshold variables and regressors to be endogenous. The results confirm that external debt becomes a drag on growth beyond a threshold of 53.49% relative to GDP. Furthermore, the results show that external debt appears to stimulate economic growth mainly by orienting it towards productive investment. In addition, the results show that better governance quality and financial stability accentuate the positive impact of external debt on economic growth. Based on the findings, this study proposes several policy recommendations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

20 pages, 1373 KB

Open AccessArticle

Maternity Leave Reform and Women’s Labor Outcomes in Colombia: A Synthetic Control Analysis

by Jhon James Mora, Diana Yaneth Herrera Duque, Juan Tomas Sayago and Andres Cendales

Economies 2025, 13(10), 299; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100299 - 17 Oct 2025

Abstract

This article examines the effects of maternity leave (Law 1822 of 2017) on the Colombian women’s labor market. Using biannual cohorts during the working life cycle of women (18 to 57 years old) reveals that the law’s implementation reduced the hours worked and [...] Read more.

This article examines the effects of maternity leave (Law 1822 of 2017) on the Colombian women’s labor market. Using biannual cohorts during the working life cycle of women (18 to 57 years old) reveals that the law’s implementation reduced the hours worked and the real hourly wage for younger women compared to older women. Average treatment effects show that the difference between the hours worked after 2017 was 0.917 (treatment vs. control), and before, it was 1.714 h worked (treatment vs. control). Differences show a reduction of 41 h per cohort and year (approximately one week worked). Synthetic control analysis shows that young cohort experienced a reduction of 0.007 U$ cents in 2017 and a reduction of 2.2 h worked in 2017. Our results highlight the importance of differential policies related to maternity leave by age (cohort) when analyzing the incorporation of women into the labor market. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Labour and Education)

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30 pages, 603 KB

Open AccessArticle

Female Wage Employment and Fertility in Kenya

by Germano Mwabu, Radu Ban, Joy Mueni Kiiru, Regina Gathoni Mwatha and T. Paul Schultz

Economies 2025, 13(10), 298; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100298 - 16 Oct 2025

Abstract

The paper examines the association between fertility and female wage employment in Kenya using nationally representative cross-sectional data collected by the Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics, a government-owned statistical organization. Two findings emerge from our analysis. The first finding is that female wage [...] Read more.

The paper examines the association between fertility and female wage employment in Kenya using nationally representative cross-sectional data collected by the Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics, a government-owned statistical organization. Two findings emerge from our analysis. The first finding is that female wage employment is negatively correlated with the number of births. Incompatibility of childrearing with wage employment is one of the main explanations for this evidence. The other finding is a much larger magnitude of the negative association between wage employment and male births relative to female newborns, but the difference in the estimated gender-specific coefficients is statistically insignificant. However, there is need for further significance tests on the difference between the gendered coefficients because the larger drop in the number of male births relative to female, as female wage employment expands, has strong support in the biomedical literature. The relevance of the second finding in the context of the biomedical literature on the link between a child’s gender at birth and the environment in which the mother works and lives provides a justification for further research on this issue. The tentative findings of the paper point to labor market policies that could be explored in Kenya and elsewhere in Africa to address the problem of excess fertility, and thus enhance women’s health, agency, and socioeconomic empowerment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Health Financing Vulnerabilities in Africa Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic)

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25 pages, 1700 KB

Open AccessArticle

Fourier Cointegration Analysis of the Relationship Between Interest and Noninterest Income in Banks: The Case of Azer Turk Bank

by Elshar Gurban Orudzhev and Nazrin Gurban Burjaliyeva

Economies 2025, 13(10), 297; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100297 - 15 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between interest and noninterest income at Azer Turk Bank using quarterly data from 2016Q1–2024Q3. Unit root tests including Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS), and Fourier–KPSS indicate that both variables are non-stationary in levels but become stationary after [...] Read more.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between interest and noninterest income at Azer Turk Bank using quarterly data from 2016Q1–2024Q3. Unit root tests including Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS), and Fourier–KPSS indicate that both variables are non-stationary in levels but become stationary after first differencing. The Hylleberg–Engle–Granger–Yoo (HEGY) test further shows that both series contain a unit root at the non-seasonal (0) frequency, while no unit roots are detected at the seasonal frequencies (π/2 and 3π/2). Johansen cointegration and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Fourier–ADL) framework confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium. As a key methodological contribution, the study derives explicit Fourier-based Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) equations, enabling the modeling of cyclical deviations around nonlinear trends. Fourier Toda–Yamamoto and Breitung–Candelon frequency-domain causality tests reveal asymmetry: interest income consistently drives noninterest income in the short and medium run, whereas the reverse effect is weak. The results also confirm mean reversion, with deviations from equilibrium corrected within 5.9; 2.5 quarters. Overall, the findings highlight the limited diversification potential of noninterest income and the decisive role of lending in bank revenues, offering both methodological advances and practical guidance for macroprudential policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Financial Markets)

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27 pages, 852 KB

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Perceptions of Corruption, Inequality, and the Fragility of Prosperity in Europe

by Gheorghița Dincă and Christian-Gabriel Strempel

Economies 2025, 13(10), 296; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100296 - 12 Oct 2025

Abstract

This study examines the complex relations between corruption, income inequality, and sustainable economic development within the European Union (EU) for the 2003–2023 period. Employing panel data for all 27 EU member states, as well as for the subgroups of Old (OMS) and New [...] Read more.

This study examines the complex relations between corruption, income inequality, and sustainable economic development within the European Union (EU) for the 2003–2023 period. Employing panel data for all 27 EU member states, as well as for the subgroups of Old (OMS) and New Member States (NMS), the analysis applies pooled OLS, random- and fixed-effects models, and panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimations. The results indicate that higher perceived corruption is robustly associated with greater income inequality, while higher tertiary education attainment, greater social protection expenditures, and increased urbanization apparently reduce inequality. Subsample evidence reveals that institutional context conditions the strength of these relationships, with NMS exhibiting a more significant corruption–inequality nexus. These findings highlight that achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the EU depends on institutional integrity and good governance. Strengthening anti-corruption frameworks, investing in human capital, and enhancing social protection are essential policy instruments for supporting the EU’s sustainable development objectives. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Corruption on Economic Development)

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24 pages, 1330 KB

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Mitigating Entrepreneurship Policy Challenges in Developing Countries’ Startup Ecosystems Through Machine Learning Analysis

by Sayed Mohammad Mahdi Mirahmadi, Mohammad Jahanbakht and Mohammad Hossein Rohban

Economies 2025, 13(10), 295; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100295 - 11 Oct 2025

Abstract

Entrepreneurship plays a significant role in the economic development of emerging economies, particularly by addressing persistent issues such as youth unemployment and growth challenges. Developing nations perceive their startup ecosystems as critical engines of economic progress. Policymakers in these countries strive to reduce [...] Read more.

Entrepreneurship plays a significant role in the economic development of emerging economies, particularly by addressing persistent issues such as youth unemployment and growth challenges. Developing nations perceive their startup ecosystems as critical engines of economic progress. Policymakers in these countries strive to reduce uncertainties and mitigate risks that could impede the growth of this essential sector. However, they face a significant obstacle: the lack of accurate and reliable data necessary to comprehend the challenges and requirements of the startup ecosystem. To effectively navigate these challenges, policymakers must utilize advanced analytical tools and technologies, including big data analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. These technologies are crucial for the comprehensive collection and analysis of data from diverse sources. This research aims to identify current trends and challenges within the startup ecosystem in developing countries through the meticulous collection and analysis of news data on the topic. To achieve this objective, we developed a detailed plan to collect news data on Iran’s startup ecosystem spanning from 2017 to 2022. By employing advanced natural language processing techniques, we intended to conduct a thorough analysis of the collected data. Our goal is to extract significant insights that will inform and shape effective policymaking. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Economic Development)

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19 pages, 313 KB

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Digital Dreams, Institutional Realities: How Entrepreneurs’ Country’s Economic Development and Corruption Shape Their Crowdfunding Outcomes

by Naif Alsagr

Economies 2025, 13(10), 294; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13100294 - 11 Oct 2025

Abstract

Entrepreneurs based in developing nations, as well as in contexts with significant corruption, find significant issues when seeking financing, and this was exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis. Nevertheless, recently developed financial approaches such as international reward-based crowdfunding (RBC), may provide support for [...] Read more.

Entrepreneurs based in developing nations, as well as in contexts with significant corruption, find significant issues when seeking financing, and this was exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis. Nevertheless, recently developed financial approaches such as international reward-based crowdfunding (RBC), may provide support for these entrepreneurs. Based on this, this study investigates how entrepreneurs’ macroeconomic context, specifically, country-level economic development and corruption, affect crowdfunding outcomes. This aim was addressed by using campaigns on Kickstarter, the world’s leading digital RBC platform, as its study population, and examining campaigns conducted between 2009 and November 2016. Logistic and ordinary least squares multi-level models showed that country-of-origin macroeconomic context was significantly associated with crowdfunding outcomes. After controlling variables specific to the entrepreneur and campaign, developing-economy entrepreneurs found greater success on the platform than those from developed countries. Nevertheless, corruption at the country level has a significant adverse association with campaign outcomes. The study’s empirical findings show robustness and consistency under a range of testing approaches. Implications for digital platforms, entrepreneurial individuals, and policymakers are highlighted. Full article

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