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Forecasting, Volume 4, Issue 3

2022 September - 9 articles

Cover Story: The financial world was shaken up in January of 2021 when the members of the online forum WallStreetBets managed to initiate a short squeeze on a number of "meme" stocks. An event where retail traders have "squeezed" large hedge funds out of their positions has no precedent and provides a unique insight into market dynamics. In this paper, we set out to explore the forum’s meteoric rise in popularity and the catalysts and consequences of the "squeeze". We further attempt to create a model, using a variety of well-known statistical and machine learning techniques, that can incorporate data from the forum used for short-term forecasts of stocks which are to experience such bouts of volatility and the direction of the price change. Having tested the models, we compare their performance and suitability for this type of task. View this paper
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Articles (9)

  • Article
  • Open Access
17 Citations
6,929 Views
20 Pages

18 August 2022

The techniques of hybridisation and ensemble learning are popular model fusion techniques for improving the predictive power of forecasting methods. With limited research that instigates combining these two promising approaches, this paper focuses on...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,997 Views
15 Pages

Nowcasting GDP: An Application to Portugal

  • João B. Assunção and
  • Pedro Afonso Fernandes

15 August 2022

Forecasting the state of an economy is important for policy makers and business leaders. When this is conducted in real-time, it is called nowcasting. In this paper, we present a method that shows how forecasting errors decline as additional contempo...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,585 Views
18 Pages

Can Groups Improve Expert Economic and Financial Forecasts?

  • Warwick Smith,
  • Anca M. Hanea and
  • Mark A. Burgman

2 August 2022

Economic and financial forecasts are important for business planning and government policy but are notoriously challenging. We take advantage of recent advances in individual and group judgement, and a data set of economic and financial forecasts com...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,778 Views
14 Pages

21 July 2022

In this research, we investigate the relationship between a movie’s gross and its budget, year of release, season of release, genre, and rating. The movie data used in this research are severely skewed to the right, resulting in the problems of...

  • Article
  • Open Access
12 Citations
6,720 Views
11 Pages

21 July 2022

Tourism plays an important economic role for many economies and after the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate tourism forecasting become critical for policymakers in tourism-dependent economies. This paper extends the growing literature on the use of interne...

  • Article
  • Open Access
11 Citations
6,642 Views
20 Pages

19 July 2022

Ever since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus have resulted in an increased interest of retail investors in the stock market, due to more free time, capital, and commission-free trading brokerages. This i...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
5,988 Views
20 Pages

11 July 2022

A methodology to prove the influence of car configurator webpage data for automotive manufacturers is developed across this research. Firstly, the correlation between online data and sales is measured. Afterward, car variant sales are predicted using...

  • Article
  • Open Access
14 Citations
4,706 Views
30 Pages

30 June 2022

Ecological forecasting is an emerging approach to estimate the future state of an ecological system with uncertainty, allowing society to better manage ecosystem services. Ecological forecasting is a core mission of the U.S. National Ecological Obser...

  • Article
  • Open Access
23 Citations
6,805 Views
22 Pages

29 June 2022

Climate change has caused uncertainty in the hydrological pattern including weather change, precipitation fluctuations, and extreme temperature, thus triggering unforeseen natural tragedies such as hurricanes, flash flooding, heatwave and more. Becau...

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Forecasting - ISSN 2571-9394