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Risks, Volume 12, Issue 3

March 2024 - 15 articles

Cover Story: Andrey Andreyevich Markov was a mathematician from Russia who was known for his work on stochastic processes and, eventually, Markov processes. A Markov process lies at the heart of the regime-switching structural default risk model (RSDR) presented in this paper. The RSDR model is essentially a two-state Markov process, where a lognormal distribution lies at each state. The beauty of regime-switching models estimated through maximum likelihood is that it has the flexibility to accommodate any distribution at each state, hence allowing the achievement of multimodality and heavy tails to model periods of elevated volatility and extreme changes in mean returns. These characteristics of regime-switching models are especially useful in periods of market downturns and allow the RSDR model to be more responsive than benchmark models in incorporating new information about the underlying asset. View this paper
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Articles (15)

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,382 Views
17 Pages

Adding Shocks to a Prospective Mortality Model

  • Frédéric Planchet and
  • Guillaume Gautier de La Plaine

20 March 2024

This work proposes a simple model to take into account the annual volatility of the mortality level observed on the scale of a country like France in the construction of prospective mortality tables. By assigning a frailty factor to a basic hazard fu...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3,699 Views
24 Pages

20 March 2024

Systemic risk refers to the potential for a disruption in one part of a financial system to trigger a cascade of adverse effects, impacting the functioning of the system. Despite the progress on novel systemic risk measures, research on dynamics of s...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,955 Views
35 Pages

18 March 2024

We implemented a methodology to calibrate capital structure models for banks that have issued contingent convertible securities (CoCos). Typical studies involving capital structure model calibration focus on non-financial firms as they have lower lev...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
2,627 Views
16 Pages

18 March 2024

Fintech companies are relatively young and operate in a rapidly evolving and ever-changing industry, which makes it important to understand how different factors, including shareholder presence in management roles, affect their performance. This stud...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,309 Views
24 Pages

14 March 2024

Population events such as natural disasters, pandemics, extreme weather, and wars might cause jumps that have an immediate impact on mortality rates. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that these events should not be treated as nonrepetiti...

  • Article
  • Open Access
8 Citations
10,753 Views
21 Pages

13 March 2024

In this study, we delve into the financial market to compare the performance of prominent AI and robotics-related stocks against traditional IT indices, such as the Nasdaq, and specialized AI and robotics ETFs. We evaluate the role of these stocks in...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3 Citations
3,642 Views
20 Pages

13 March 2024

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) metric serves as a pivotal tool for quantifying market risk, offering an estimation of potential investment losses. Predominantly employed within financial sectors, it aids in adhering to regulatory mandates and in devising ca...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3,750 Views
23 Pages

Value-at-Risk Effectiveness: A High-Frequency Data Approach with Semi-Heavy Tails

  • Mario Ivan Contreras-Valdez,
  • Sonal Sahu,
  • José Antonio Núñez-Mora and
  • Roberto Joaquín Santillán-Salgado

13 March 2024

In the broader landscape of cryptocurrency risk management, this study delves into the nuanced estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a uniformly weighted portfolio of cryptocurrencies, employing the bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution reno...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
2,638 Views
17 Pages

6 March 2024

Defined benefit (DB) pension plans are a primary type of pension schemes with the sponsor assuming most of the risks. Longevity-indexed bonds have been used to hedge or transfer risks in pension plans. Our objective is to study an aggregated DB pensi...

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Risks - ISSN 2227-9091