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Risks, Volume 12, Issue 3

2024 March - 15 articles

Cover Story: Andrey Andreyevich Markov was a mathematician from Russia who was known for his work on stochastic processes and, eventually, Markov processes. A Markov process lies at the heart of the regime-switching structural default risk model (RSDR) presented in this paper. The RSDR model is essentially a two-state Markov process, where a lognormal distribution lies at each state. The beauty of regime-switching models estimated through maximum likelihood is that it has the flexibility to accommodate any distribution at each state, hence allowing the achievement of multimodality and heavy tails to model periods of elevated volatility and extreme changes in mean returns. These characteristics of regime-switching models are especially useful in periods of market downturns and allow the RSDR model to be more responsive than benchmark models in incorporating new information about the underlying asset. View this paper
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Articles (15)

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,570 Views
17 Pages

Adding Shocks to a Prospective Mortality Model

  • Frédéric Planchet and
  • Guillaume Gautier de La Plaine

20 March 2024

This work proposes a simple model to take into account the annual volatility of the mortality level observed on the scale of a country like France in the construction of prospective mortality tables. By assigning a frailty factor to a basic hazard fu...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4,157 Views
24 Pages

20 March 2024

Systemic risk refers to the potential for a disruption in one part of a financial system to trigger a cascade of adverse effects, impacting the functioning of the system. Despite the progress on novel systemic risk measures, research on dynamics of s...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
4,258 Views
35 Pages

18 March 2024

We implemented a methodology to calibrate capital structure models for banks that have issued contingent convertible securities (CoCos). Typical studies involving capital structure model calibration focus on non-financial firms as they have lower lev...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
2,863 Views
16 Pages

18 March 2024

Fintech companies are relatively young and operate in a rapidly evolving and ever-changing industry, which makes it important to understand how different factors, including shareholder presence in management roles, affect their performance. This stud...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
3,593 Views
24 Pages

14 March 2024

Population events such as natural disasters, pandemics, extreme weather, and wars might cause jumps that have an immediate impact on mortality rates. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that these events should not be treated as nonrepetiti...

  • Article
  • Open Access
14 Citations
11,468 Views
21 Pages

13 March 2024

In this study, we delve into the financial market to compare the performance of prominent AI and robotics-related stocks against traditional IT indices, such as the Nasdaq, and specialized AI and robotics ETFs. We evaluate the role of these stocks in...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4 Citations
3,986 Views
20 Pages

13 March 2024

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) metric serves as a pivotal tool for quantifying market risk, offering an estimation of potential investment losses. Predominantly employed within financial sectors, it aids in adhering to regulatory mandates and in devising ca...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3,985 Views
23 Pages

Value-at-Risk Effectiveness: A High-Frequency Data Approach with Semi-Heavy Tails

  • Mario Ivan Contreras-Valdez,
  • Sonal Sahu,
  • José Antonio Núñez-Mora and
  • Roberto Joaquín Santillán-Salgado

13 March 2024

In the broader landscape of cryptocurrency risk management, this study delves into the nuanced estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a uniformly weighted portfolio of cryptocurrencies, employing the bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution reno...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
2,835 Views
17 Pages

6 March 2024

Defined benefit (DB) pension plans are a primary type of pension schemes with the sponsor assuming most of the risks. Longevity-indexed bonds have been used to hedge or transfer risks in pension plans. Our objective is to study an aggregated DB pensi...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4 Citations
3,381 Views
31 Pages

4 March 2024

This paper analyzes the connectedness between gold, wheat, and crude oil futures, Bitcoin, carbon emission futures, and international stock markets in the G7, BRICS, and Gulf regions with the outbreak of exogenous and unexpected shocks related to hea...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
4,820 Views
16 Pages

Navigating Inflation Challenges: AI-Based Portfolio Management Insights

  • Tibor Bareith,
  • Tibor Tatay and
  • László Vancsura

1 March 2024

After 2010, the consumer price index fell to a low level in the EU. In the euro area, it remained low between 2010 and 2020. The European Central Bank has even had to take action against the emergence of deflation. The situation changed significantly...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2,523 Views
13 Pages

1 March 2024

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to a MLE become significantly limi...

  • Feature Paper
  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
3,207 Views
16 Pages

29 February 2024

Expected returns, variances, betas, and alphas are all non-linear functions of the investment horizon. This seems to be a fatal conceptual problem for the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which assumes a unique common horizon for all investors. We...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
4,987 Views
23 Pages

Climate Change-Related Disaster Risk Mitigation through Innovative Insurance Mechanism: A System Dynamics Model Application for a Case Study in Latvia

  • Maksims Feofilovs,
  • Andrea Jonathan Pagano,
  • Emanuele Vannucci,
  • Marina Spiotta and
  • Francesco Romagnoli

28 February 2024

This study explores how the System Dynamics modeling approach can help deal with the problem of conventional insurance mechanisms by studying the feedback loops governing complex systems connected to the disaster insurance mechanism. Instead of addre...

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Risks - ISSN 2227-9091