Climate

21 pages, 3221 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multi-Model Forecasts of Very-Large Fire Occurences during the End of the 21st Century

by Harry R. Podschwit^1,*

, Narasimhan K. Larkin², E. Ashley Steel³, Alison Cullen⁴

and Ernesto Alvarado⁵

¹ College of the Environment Special Programs, Quantitative Ecology & Resource Management (QERM), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

² Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service, 400 N. 34th St #201, Seattle, WA 98103, USA

³ Department of Statistics and School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

⁴ Daniel J. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

⁵ Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

Climate 2018, 6(4), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040100 - 19 Dec 2018

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 6415

Abstract

Climate change is anticipated to influence future wildfire activity in complicated, and potentially unexpected ways. Specifically, the probability distribution of wildfire size may change so that incidents that were historically rare become more frequent. Given that fires in the upper tails of the [...] Read more.

Climate change is anticipated to influence future wildfire activity in complicated, and potentially unexpected ways. Specifically, the probability distribution of wildfire size may change so that incidents that were historically rare become more frequent. Given that fires in the upper tails of the size distribution are associated with serious economic, public health, and environmental impacts, it is important for decision-makers to plan for these anticipated changes. However, at least two kinds of structural uncertainties hinder reliable estimation of these quantities—those associated with the future climate and those associated with the impacts. In this paper, we incorporate these structural uncertainties into projections of very-large fire (VLF)—those in the upper 95th percentile of the regional size distribution—frequencies in the Continental United States during the last half of the 21st century by using Bayesian model averaging. Under both moderate and high carbon emission scenarios, large increases in VLF frequency are predicted, with larger increases typically observed under the highest carbon emission scenarios. We also report other changes to future wildfire characteristics such as large fire frequency, seasonality, and the conditional likelihood of very-large fire events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

28 pages, 3720 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Impact of Values and Perception on Climate Change Skepticism and Its Implication for Public Policy

by Jaesun Wang¹ and Seoyong Kim^2,*

¹ Department of Public Administration, Honam University, 417, Eodeung-daero, Gwangsan-gu, Gwangju 62399, Korea

² Department of Public Administration, Ajou University, Worldcup-ro, Suwon 16499, Korea

Climate 2018, 6(4), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040099 - 14 Dec 2018

Cited by 46 | Viewed by 15485

Abstract

Climate change is an unprecedented risk that humans have not previously experienced. It is accepted that people are generally worried about global warming. However, it is also a fact that there is a small but increasing number of climate change skeptics. These skeptics [...] Read more.

Climate change is an unprecedented risk that humans have not previously experienced. It is accepted that people are generally worried about global warming. However, it is also a fact that there is a small but increasing number of climate change skeptics. These skeptics do not believe that there is any risk, nor are they concerned with other worrisome facts related to climate change. Skeptics regard the present scientific findings supporting climate change as false artefacts. Our study aimed to explore the factors that influence climate skepticism. In this work, to make a regression model, we established environmental skepticism as a dependent variable and included sociodemographic factors, values, and perception factors as the three independent variables. Also, to examine their roles indirectly, we regarded values as moderators. The results show that, in terms of values, ideology, environmentalism, religiosity, two kinds of cultural biases, and science and technology (S&T) optimism influence skepticism at the individual level, whereas, in terms of perception factors, perceived risk, perceived benefit, and negative affect have an impact. Also, values such as ideology, religiosity, environmentalism, and cultural biases play a moderating role that facilitates, buffers, or changes the effect of psychometric variables on an individual’s skepticism. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 10541 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Observational Evidence of Neighborhood Scale Reductions in Air Temperature Associated with Increases in Roof Albedo

by Arash Mohegh¹

, Ronnen Levinson², Haider Taha³, Haley Gilbert²

, Jiachen Zhang¹, Yun Li¹, Tianbo Tang¹ and George A. Ban-Weiss^1,*

¹ Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA

² Heat Island Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

³ Altostratus, Inc., 940 Toulouse Way, Martinez, CA 94553, USA

Climate 2018, 6(4), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040098 - 12 Dec 2018

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 5170

Abstract

The effects of neighborhood-scale land use and land cover (LULC) properties on observed air temperatures are investigated in two regions within Los Angeles County: Central Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley (SFV). LULC properties of particular interest in this study are albedo [...] Read more.

The effects of neighborhood-scale land use and land cover (LULC) properties on observed air temperatures are investigated in two regions within Los Angeles County: Central Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley (SFV). LULC properties of particular interest in this study are albedo and tree fraction. High spatial density meteorological observations are obtained from 76 personal weather-stations. Observed air temperatures were then related to the spatial mean of each LULC parameter within a 500 m radius “neighborhood” of each weather station, using robust regression for each hour of July 2015. For the neighborhoods under investigation, increases in roof albedo are associated with decreases in air temperature, with the strongest sensitivities occurring in the afternoon. Air temperatures at 14:00–15:00 local daylight time are reduced by 0.31 °C and 0.49 °C per 1 MW increase in daily average solar power reflected from roofs per neighborhood in SFV and Central Los Angeles, respectively. Per 0.10 increase in neighborhood average albedo, daily average air temperatures were reduced by 0.25 °C and 1.84 °C. While roof albedo effects on air temperature seem to exceed tree fraction effects during the day in these two regions, increases in tree fraction are associated with reduced air temperatures at night. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Resilience and Urban Sustainability)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 919 KiB

Open AccessReview

Geographic Information and Communication Technologies for Supporting Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Resilience

by Billy Tusker Haworth^1,*

, Eloise Biggs²

, John Duncan², Nathan Wales³

, Bryan Boruff² and Eleanor Bruce⁴

¹ Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute, University of Manchester, Ellen Wilkinson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK

² UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia

³ School of Geography, Earth Science & Environment, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji

⁴ School of Geosciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

Climate 2018, 6(4), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040097 - 10 Dec 2018

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 8873

Abstract

Multiple factors constrain smallholder agriculture and farmers’ adaptive capacities under changing climates, including access to information to support context appropriate farm decision-making. Current approaches to geographic information dissemination to smallholders, such as the rural extension model, are limited, yet advancements in internet and [...] Read more.

Multiple factors constrain smallholder agriculture and farmers’ adaptive capacities under changing climates, including access to information to support context appropriate farm decision-making. Current approaches to geographic information dissemination to smallholders, such as the rural extension model, are limited, yet advancements in internet and communication technologies (ICTs) could help augment these processes through the provision of agricultural geographic information (AGI) directly to farmers. We analysed recent ICT initiatives for communicating climate and agriculture-related information to smallholders for improved livelihoods and climate change adaptation. Through the critical analysis of initiatives, we identified opportunities for the success of future AGI developments. We systematically examined 27 AGI initiatives reported in academic and grey literature (e.g., organisational databases). Important factors identified for the success of initiatives include affordability, language(s), community partnerships, user collaboration, high quality and locally-relevant information through low-tech platforms, organisational trust, clear business models, and adaptability. We propose initiatives should be better-targeted to deliver AGI to regions in most need of climate adaptation assistance, including SE Asia, the Pacific, and the Caribbean. Further assessment of the most effective technological approaches is needed. Initiatives should be independently assessed for evaluation of their uptake and success, and local communities should be better-incorporated into the development of AGI initiatives. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 4425 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Objective Definition of Climatologically Homogeneous Areas in the Southern Balkans Based on the ERA5 Data Set

by Christos J. Lolis^*, Georgios Kotsias and Aristides Bartzokas

Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, 45110 Ioannina, Greece

Climate 2018, 6(4), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040096 - 7 Dec 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4233

Abstract

An objective definition of climatologically homogeneous areas in the southern Balkans is attempted with the use of daily 0.25° × 0.25° ERA5 meteorological data of air temperature, dew point, zonal and meridional wind components, Convective Available Potential Energy, Convective Inhibition, and total cloud [...] Read more.

An objective definition of climatologically homogeneous areas in the southern Balkans is attempted with the use of daily 0.25° × 0.25° ERA5 meteorological data of air temperature, dew point, zonal and meridional wind components, Convective Available Potential Energy, Convective Inhibition, and total cloud cover. The classification of the various grid points into climatologically homogeneous areas is carried out by applying Principal Component Analysis and K-means Cluster Analysis on the mean spatial anomaly patterns of the above parameters for the 10-year period of 2008 to 2017. According to the results, 12 climatologically homogenous areas are found. From these areas, eight are mainly over the sea and four are mainly over the land. The mean intra-annual variations of the spatial anomalies of the above parameters reveal the main climatic characteristics of these areas for the above period. These characteristics refer, for example, to how much warmer or cloudy the climate of a specific area is in a specific season relatively to the rest of the geographical domain. The continentality, the latitude, the altitude, the orientation, and the seasonal variability of the thermal and dynamic factors affecting the Mediterranean region are responsible for the climate characteristics of the 12 areas and the differences among them. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 8317 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time Series Analysis of MODIS-Derived NDVI for the Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park, South Africa: Impact of Recent Intense Drought

by Nkanyiso Mbatha^* and Sifiso Xulu

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa

Climate 2018, 6(4), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040095 - 30 Nov 2018

Cited by 57 | Viewed by 10994

Abstract

The variability of temperature and precipitation influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is potentially one of key factors contributing to vegetation product in southern Africa. Thus, understanding large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena like the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is important. In [...] Read more.

The variability of temperature and precipitation influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is potentially one of key factors contributing to vegetation product in southern Africa. Thus, understanding large-scale ocean–atmospheric phenomena like the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole/Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is important. In this study, 16 years (2002–2017) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra/Aqua 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), extracted and processed using JavaScript code editor in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform was used to analyze the vegetation response pattern of the oldest proclaimed nature reserve in Africa, the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP) to climatic variability. The MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI), burned area index (BAI), and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) were also analyzed. The study used the Modern Retrospective Analysis for the Research Application (MERRA) model monthly mean soil temperature and precipitations. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) evapotranspiration (ET) data were used to investigate the HiP vegetation water stress. The region in the southern part of the HiP which has land cover dominated by savanna experienced the most impact of the strong El Niño. Both the HiP NDVI inter-annual Mann–Kendal trend test and sequential Mann–Kendall (SQ-MK) test indicated a significant downward trend during the El Niño years of 2003 and 2014–2015. The SQ-MK significant trend turning point which was thought to be associated with the 2014–2015 El Niño periods begun in November 2012. The wavelet coherence and coherence phase indicated a positive teleconnection/correlation between soil temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture (NDII), and ET. This was explained by a dominant in-phase relationship between the NDVI and climatic parameters especially at a period band of 8–16 months. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Graphical abstract

11 pages, 2737 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Field Measurements and Satellite Remote Sensing of Daily Soil Surface Temperature Variations in the Lower Colorado Desert of California

by Dana Coppernoll-Houston^1,2 and Christopher Potter^1,*

¹ NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035, USA

² Thomas Jefferson High School, Federal Way, Auburn, WA 98001, USA

Climate 2018, 6(4), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040094 - 30 Nov 2018

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 4391

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to better understand the relationships between diurnal variations of air temperature measured hourly at the soil surface, compared with the thermal infra-red (TIR) emission properties of soil surfaces located in the Lower Colorado Desert of California, eastern [...] Read more.

The purpose of this study was to better understand the relationships between diurnal variations of air temperature measured hourly at the soil surface, compared with the thermal infra-red (TIR) emission properties of soil surfaces located in the Lower Colorado Desert of California, eastern Riverside County. Fifty air temperature loggers were deployed in January of 2017 on wooden stakes that were driven into the sandy or rocky desert soils at both Ford Dry Lake and the southern McCoy Mountains wash. The land surface temperature (LST) derived from Landsat satellite images was compared to measured air temperatures at 1 m and at the soil surface on 14 separate dates, until mid-September, 2017. Results showed that it is feasible to derive estimated temperatures at the soil surface from hourly air temperatures, recorded at 1 m above the surface (ambient). The study further correlated Landsat LST closely with site measurements of air and surface temperatures in these solar energy development zones of southern California, allowing inter-conversion with ground-based measurements for use in ecosystem change and animal population biology studies. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

15 pages, 714 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Emergent Scale Invariance and Climate Sensitivity

by Martin Rypdal^*, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Kristoffer Rypdal and Sigrunn H. Sørbye

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, l9019 Tromsø, Norway

Climate 2018, 6(4), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040093 - 28 Nov 2018

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5388

Abstract

Earth’s global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response [...] Read more.

Earth’s global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a bridge between the decadal- and centennial-scale fluctuations in the instrumental temperature record, and the millennial-scale equilibration following perturbations in the radiative balance. In particular, the emergent scale invariance makes it possible to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from the observed relation between radiative forcing and global temperature in the instrumental era. This is verified in ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs), where the inferred values of ECS correlate strongly to estimates from idealized model runs. For the range of forcing data explored in this paper, the method gives best estimates of ECS between 1.8 and 3.7 K, but statistical uncertainties in the best estimates themselves will provide a wider likely range of the ECS. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

14 pages, 8404 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Novel Multi-Risk Assessment Web-Tool for Evaluating Future Impacts of Global Change in Mountainous Areas

by Gilles Grandjean^1,*

, Loïc Thomas², Séverine Bernardie¹ and The SAMCO Team^†

¹ BRGM, Risk and Prevention Division, 45060 Orléans, France

² GeoHyd, 45160 Olivet, France

^† LIVE (Anne Puissant), IPGS (Jean-Philippe Malet), GEODE (Thomas Houet), IRSTEA (Franck Bourrier), PRODIG (Monique Fort), France.

Climate 2018, 6(4), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040092 - 21 Nov 2018

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 7041

Abstract

In our study, we present a proactive decision support tool able to compute the impacts of different possible scenarios for territories impacted by mountain risks. The objective of this work was to develop and test various hazard and risk assessment methods, and to [...] Read more.

In our study, we present a proactive decision support tool able to compute the impacts of different possible scenarios for territories impacted by mountain risks. The objective of this work was to develop and test various hazard and risk assessment methods, and to implement them into a web-application platform able to show possible risks induced by global change on ecosystems and society. Four case studies were selected for their representativeness: One located in a Pyrenean valley, others in the French Alps. Methodology addressed several points. The first one was on the identification of the impacts of global environmental changes (climatic situations, land use, and socio-economic systems) on identified hazards. The second one was on the analysis of these impacts in terms of vulnerability (e.g., the places and the physical modifications of impacted stakes, as well as levels of perturbation). The third one was on the integration of developed methodologies in a single coherent framework in order to investigate and map indicators of vulnerability. The last one was on the development of a demonstration platform with GIS (Geographic Information System) capabilities and usable on the web. The architecture and the main features of the web-platform are detailed within several cases for which hazard and impact assessments are evaluated for not only past and present, but also future periods. This web-tool, mostly dedicated to stakeholders, has proven its usefulness to test various socio-economical pathways, because multiple scenarios, considered as probable in inhabited valleys, can be benchmarked, analyzed, and compared. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 6919 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Decadal Ocean Heat Redistribution Since the Late 1990s and Its Association with Key Climate Modes

by Lijing Cheng^1,*

, Gongjie Wang², John P. Abraham³ and Gang Huang^4,5

¹ International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

² College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 210001, China

³ School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN 55105, USA

⁴ State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

⁵ University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Climate 2018, 6(4), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040091 - 19 Nov 2018

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 10539

Abstract

Ocean heat content (OHC) is the major component of the earth’s energy imbalance. Its decadal scale variability has been heavily debated in the research interest of the so-called “surface warming slowdown” (SWS) that occurred during the 1998–2013 period. Here, we first clarify that [...] Read more.

Ocean heat content (OHC) is the major component of the earth’s energy imbalance. Its decadal scale variability has been heavily debated in the research interest of the so-called “surface warming slowdown” (SWS) that occurred during the 1998–2013 period. Here, we first clarify that OHC has accelerated since the late 1990s. This finding refutes the concept of a slowdown of the human-induced global warming. This study also addresses the question of how heat is redistributed within the global ocean and provides some explanation of the underlying physical phenomena. Previous efforts to answer this question end with contradictory conclusions; we show that the systematic errors in some OHC datasets are partly responsible for these contradictions. Using an improved OHC product, the three-dimensional OHC changes during the SWS period are depicted, related to a reference period of 1982–1997. Several “hot spots” and “cold spots” are identified, showing a significant decadal-scale redistribution of ocean heat, which is distinct from the long-term ocean-warming pattern. To provide clues for the potential drivers of the OHC changes during the SWS period, we examine the OHC changes related to the key climate modes by regressing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) indices onto the de-trended gridded OHC anomalies. We find that no single mode can fully explain the OHC change patterns during the SWS period, suggesting that there is not a single “pacemaker” for the recent SWS. Our observation-based analyses provide a basis for further understanding the mechanisms of the decadal ocean heat uptake and evaluating the climate models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

34 pages, 4651 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate and the Decline and Fall of the Western Roman Empire: A Bibliometric View on an Interdisciplinary Approach to Answer a Most Classic Historical Question

by Werner Marx^1,*

, Robin Haunschild¹ and Lutz Bornmann²

¹ Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research, Heisenbergstr. 1, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany

² Division for Science and Innovation Studies, Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society, Hofgartenstr. 8, 80539 Munich, Germany

Climate 2018, 6(4), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040090 - 15 Nov 2018

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 20071

Abstract

This bibliometric analysis deals with research on the decline and fall of the Western Roman Empire in connection with climate change. Based on the Web of Science (WoS) database, we applied a combination of three different search queries for retrieving the relevant literature: [...] Read more.

This bibliometric analysis deals with research on the decline and fall of the Western Roman Empire in connection with climate change. Based on the Web of Science (WoS) database, we applied a combination of three different search queries for retrieving the relevant literature: (1) on the decline and fall of the Roman Empire in general, (2) more specifically on the downfall in connection with a changing climate, and (3) on paleoclimatic research in combination with the time period of the Roman Empire and Late Antiquity. Additionally, we considered all references cited by an ensemble of selected key papers and all citing papers of these key papers, whereby we retrieved additional publications (in particular, books and book chapters). We merged the literature retrieved, receiving a final publication set of 85 publications. We analyzed this publication set by applying a toolset of bibliometric methods and visualization programs. A co-authorship map of all authors, a keyword map for a rough content analysis, and a citation network based on the publication set of 85 papers are presented. We also considered news mentions in this study to identify papers with impacts beyond science. According to the literature retrieved, a multitude of paleoclimatic data from various geographical sites for the time of late antiquity indicate a climatic shift away from the stability of previous centuries. Recently, some scholars have argued that drought in Central Asia and the onset of a cooler climate in North-West Eurasia may have put Germanic tribes, Goths, and Huns on the move into the Roman Empire, provoking the Migration Period and eventually leading to the downfall of the Western Roman Empire. However, climate is only one variable at play; a combination of many factors interacting with each other is a possible explanation for the pattern of long-lasting decline and final collapse. Currently, the number of records from different locations, the toolbox of suitable analytic methods, and the precision of dating are evolving rapidly, contributing to an answer for one of the most classic of all historical questions. However, these studies still lack the inevitable collaboration of the major disciplines involved: archeology, history, and climatology. The articles of the publication set analyzed mainly result from research in the geosciences. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 6935 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Selecting and Downscaling a Set of Climate Models for Projecting Climatic Change for Impact Assessment in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)

by Asim Jahangir Khan^1,2,*

and Manfred Koch¹

¹ Department of Geohydraulics and Engineering Hydrology, University of Kassel, 34125 Kassel, Hessen, Germany

² Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Abbottabad Campus, University Road, Tobe Camp, Abbottabad, KP 22060, Pakistan

Climate 2018, 6(4), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040089 - 14 Nov 2018

Cited by 32 | Viewed by 7724

Abstract

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative climate model projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of General Circulation Models (GCM) predictor sets are available nowadays in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific [...] Read more.

This study focusses on identifying a set of representative climate model projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of General Circulation Models (GCM) predictor sets are available nowadays in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for the step-wise shortlisting and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on: (a) range of projected mean changes, (b) range of projected extreme changes, and (c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible extreme future scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, from of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to the year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios to as high as 15.9% in the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

12 pages, 2049 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Are Energy Security Concerns Dominating Environmental Concerns? Evidence from Stakeholder Participation Processes on Energy Transition in Jordan

by Nadejda Komendantova^1,2,*, Love Ekenberg^1,3

, Leena Marashdeh⁴, Ahmed Al Salaymeh⁴, Mats Danielson^3,1

and Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer¹

¹ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

² Climate Policy Group, Institute for Environmental Decisions (ETH), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland

³ Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691 Kista, Sweden

⁴ Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Jordan, 11942 Amman, Jordan

Climate 2018, 6(4), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040088 - 1 Nov 2018

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 5860

Abstract

To satisfy Jordan’s growing demand for electricity and to diversify its energy mix, the Jordanian government is considering a number of electricity-generation technologies that would allow for locally available resources to be used alongside imported energy. Energy policy in Jordan aims to address [...] Read more.

To satisfy Jordan’s growing demand for electricity and to diversify its energy mix, the Jordanian government is considering a number of electricity-generation technologies that would allow for locally available resources to be used alongside imported energy. Energy policy in Jordan aims to address both climate change mitigation and energy security by increasing the share of low-carbon technologies and domestically available resources in the Jordanian electricity mix. Existing technological alternatives include the scaling up of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind; the deployment of nuclear energy; and shale oil exploration. However, the views, perceptions, and opinions regarding these technologies—their benefits, risks, and costs—vary significantly among different social groups both inside and outside the country. Considering the large-scale policy intervention that would be needed to deploy these technologies, a compromise solution must be reached. This paper is based on the results of a four-year research project that included extensive stakeholder processes in Jordan, involving several social groups and the application of various methods of participatory governance research, such as multi-criteria decision-making. The results show the variety of opinions expressed and provide insights into each type of electricity-generation technology and its relevance for each stakeholder group. There is a strong prevalence of economic rationality in the results, given that electricity-system costs are prioritized by almost all stakeholder groups. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Carbon Budget and Energy Policy)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 6151 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extremes in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

by Isaac Larbi^1,*, Fabien C. C. Hountondji², Thompson Annor³

, Wilson Agyei Agyare⁴, John Mwangi Gathenya⁵ and Joshua Amuzu⁶

¹ Climate Change and Water Resources, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Universite D’abomey Calavi, 03 BP 526 Cotonou, Benin

² Faculté d’Agronomie, University of Parakou, Parakou BP 123, Benin

³ Department of Physics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana

⁴ Department of Agricultural Engineering, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana

⁵ Soil, Water, and Environmental Engineering Department, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), Nairobi 62000, Kenya

⁶ West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Headquarters, CSIR Office Complex, Airport Residential Area, P.M.B CT 504, Cantonments-Accra 0233, Ghana

Climate 2018, 6(4), 87; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040087 - 31 Oct 2018

Cited by 52 | Viewed by 8595

Abstract

This study examined the trends in annual rainfall and temperature extremes over the Vea catchment for the period 1985–2016, using quality-controlled stations and a high resolution (5 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The CHIRPS gridded precipitation data’s ability [...] Read more.

This study examined the trends in annual rainfall and temperature extremes over the Vea catchment for the period 1985–2016, using quality-controlled stations and a high resolution (5 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The CHIRPS gridded precipitation data’s ability in reproducing the climatology of the catchment was evaluated. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices were computed using a RClimdex package by considering seventeen (17) climate change indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Trend detection and quantification in the rainfall (frequency and intensity) and temperature extreme indices were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results show a very high seasonal correlation coefficient (r = 0.99), Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (0.98) and percentage bias (4.4% and −8.1%) between the stations and the gridded data. An investigation of dry and wet years using Standardized Anomaly Index shows 45.5% frequency of drier than normal periods compared to 54.5% wetter than normal periods in the catchment with 1999 and 2003 been extremely wet years while the year 1990 and 2013 were extremely dry. The intensity and magnitude of extreme rainfall indices show a decreasing trend for more than 78% of the rainfall locations while positive trends were observed in the frequency of extreme rainfall indices (R10mm, R20mm, and CDD) with the exception of consecutive wet days (CWD) that shows a decreasing trend. A general warming trend over the catchment was observed through the increase in the annual number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p) and warm spells (WSDI). The spatial distribution analysis shows a high frequency and intensity of extremes rainfall indices in the south of the catchment compared to the middle and northern of part of the catchment, while temperature extremes were uniformly distributed over the catchment. Full article

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 2911 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

by Abdul-Aziz Ibn Musah^*, Jianguo Du, Thomas Bilaliib Udimal

and Mohammed Abubakari Sadick

School of Management, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, China

Climate 2018, 6(4), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040086 - 31 Oct 2018

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 9393

Abstract

The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful [...] Read more.

The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful information, which can help local farmers make informed decisions to advance their livelihoods. We modelled historical data using extreme value theory and structural equation modelling. Subsequently, we studied extreme weather variability and its relationship to composite indicators of agricultural production and the long-term trend of weather risk. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures have negligible heterogeneity in their trends, while the annual maximum rainfall is homogenous in trend. Severe rainfall affects cereals and cocoa production, resulting in reduced yields. Cereals and cocoa grow well when there is even distribution of rainfall. The return levels for the next 20–100 years are gradually increasing with the long-term prediction of extreme weather. Also, heavy rains affect cereals and cocoa production negatively. All indicators of agriculture had a positive relationship with maximum extreme weather. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

16 pages, 3611 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Estimating the Impact of Artificially Injected Stratospheric Aerosols on the Global Mean Surface Temperature in the 21th Century

by Sergei A. Soldatenko

St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 39, 14-th Line, St. Petersburg 199178, Russia

Climate 2018, 6(4), 85; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040085 - 28 Oct 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5746

Abstract

In this paper, we apply the optimal control theory to obtain the analytic solutions of the two-component globally averaged energy balance model in order to estimate the influence of solar radiation management (SRM) operations on the global mean surface temperature in the 21st [...] Read more.

In this paper, we apply the optimal control theory to obtain the analytic solutions of the two-component globally averaged energy balance model in order to estimate the influence of solar radiation management (SRM) operations on the global mean surface temperature in the 21st century. It is assumed that SRM is executed via injection of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere to limit the global temperature increase in the year 2100 by 1.5 °C and keeping global temperature over the specified period (2020–2100) within 2 °C as required by the Paris climate agreement. The radiative forcing produced by the rise in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways and the 1pctCO₂ (1% per year CO₂ increase) scenario. The goal of SRM is formulated in terms of extremal problem, which entails finding a control function (the albedo of aerosol layer) that minimizes the amount of aerosols injected into the upper atmosphere to satisfy the Paris climate target. For each climate change scenario, the optimal albedo of the aerosol layer and the corresponding global mean surface temperature changes were obtained. In addition, the aerosol emission rates required to create an aerosol cloud with optimal optical properties were calculated. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

13 pages, 6615 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Relationship between City Size, Coastal Land Use, and Summer Daytime Air Temperature Rise with Distance from Coast

by Hideki Takebayashi^1,*

, Takahiro Tanaka², Masakazu Moriyama¹, Hironori Watanabe³, Hiroshi Miyazaki⁴ and Kosuke Kittaka¹

¹ Department of Architecture, Kobe University, Kobe 657-8501, Japan

² Department of Architecture, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8527, Japan

³ Department of Architecture, Tohoku Institute of Technology, Sendai 982-8577, Japan

⁴ Department of Architecture, Kansai University, Suita 564-8680, Japan

Climate 2018, 6(4), 84; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040084 - 27 Oct 2018

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5134

Abstract

The relationship between city size, coastal land use, and air temperature rise with distance from coast during summer day is analyzed using the meso-scale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in five coastal cities in Japan with different sizes and coastal land use [...] Read more.

The relationship between city size, coastal land use, and air temperature rise with distance from coast during summer day is analyzed using the meso-scale weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in five coastal cities in Japan with different sizes and coastal land use (Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Hiroshima, and Sendai) and inland cities in Germany (Berlin, Essen, and Karlsruhe). Air temperature increased as distance from the coast increased, reached its maximum, and then decreased slightly. In Nagoya and Sendai, the amount of urban land use in coastal areas is less than the other three cities, where air temperature is a little lower. As a result, air temperature difference between coastal and inland urban area is small and the curve of air temperature rise is smaller than those in Tokyo and Osaka. In Sendai, air temperature in the inland urban area is the same as in the other cities, but air temperature in the coastal urban area is a little lower than the other cities, due to an approximate one degree lower sea surface temperature being influenced by the latitude. In three German cities, the urban boundary layer may not develop sufficiently because the fetch distance is not enough. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Resilience and Urban Sustainability)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

14 pages, 1220 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Patterns in Indices of Daily and Seasonal Rainfall Extremes: Southwest Florida Gulf Coastal Zone

by Margaret W. Gitau

Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, 225 South University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA

Climate 2018, 6(4), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040083 - 25 Oct 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3472

Abstract

Extreme events have the most adverse impacts on society and infrastructure, and present the greatest challenges with respect to impacts. Information on the status and trends of these events is, thus, important for system design, management, and policy decision-making. In this study, variations [...] Read more.

Extreme events have the most adverse impacts on society and infrastructure, and present the greatest challenges with respect to impacts. Information on the status and trends of these events is, thus, important for system design, management, and policy decision-making. In this study, variations in daily and seasonal rainfall extremes were explored with a focus on the southwest Florida Gulf coastal zone for the period 1950–2016. Rainfall occurring on very wet days accounted for about 50% of the seasonal rainfall in the area (regardless of the season), while about 25% of the seasonal rainfall came from extremely wet days except in the period between October and December for which this latter value was about 40%. No significant changes were seen in the maximum one-day rainfall at any of the stations regardless of the time scale. However, there was a significant increase in the number of wet days in the rainy season at Myakka River (p = 0.0062) and Naples (p = 0.0027) and during October–December at Myakka River (p = 0.0204). These two stations also experienced significant increases in the number of wet days in a year. Significant increases in the contribution to rainy season rainfall from very wet days (rainfall > 25.4 mm, 1 in) were seen at Arcadia (p = 0.0055). Regional results point to an increasingly wetter climate with increasing contributions from extreme events in some areas, both of which have implications for design and management decision making. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 4070 KiB

Open AccessReview

Understanding the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown: A Review

by Ka-Kit Tung^1,* and Xianyao Chen^2,3

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA

² Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

³ Qingdao National Laboratory of Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100, China

Climate 2018, 6(4), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040082 - 24 Oct 2018

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 8660

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted a recent 15-year period (1998–2012) when the rate of surface global warming was a factor of 4 smaller than the mean of the state-of-art climate model projections and than that observed in the previous three [...] Read more.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted a recent 15-year period (1998–2012) when the rate of surface global warming was a factor of 4 smaller than the mean of the state-of-art climate model projections and than that observed in the previous three decades. When updated to include 2014 by Karl et al. using the new version of NOAA data, the observed warming trend is higher, but is still half or less, depending on dataset used, that of previous decades and the multi-model mean projections. This period is called a surface warming slowdown. Intense community efforts devoted to understanding this puzzling phenomenon—puzzling because atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation has not abated while surface warming slowed—have yielded insights on our climate system, and this may be an opportune time to take stock of what we have learned. Proposed explanations differ on whether it is forced by counteracting agents (such as volcanic and pollution aerosols and stratospheric water vapor) or is an internal variability, and if the latter, on which ocean basin is responsible (Pacific, Indian, or Atlantic Ocean). Here we critically review the observational records, their analyses and interpretations, and offer interpretations of model simulations, with emphasis on sorting through the rather confusing signals at the ocean’s surface, and reconciling them with the subsurface signals. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

20 pages, 3682 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Solving Multi-Objective Problems for Multifunctional and Sustainable Management in Maritime Pine Forest Landscapes

by Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez¹

, Luís Nunes² and João C. Azevedo^2,*

¹ Föra Forest Technologies, Calle Eduardo Saavedra 38, 42004 Soria, Spain

² Centro de Investigação de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, Portugal

Climate 2018, 6(4), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040081 - 15 Oct 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 5228

Abstract

Forest management based on sustainability and multifunctionality requires reliable and user-friendly tools to address several objectives simultaneously. In this work we present FlorNExT Pro^®, a multiple-criteria landscape-scale forest planning and management computer tool, and apply it in a region in the [...] Read more.

Forest management based on sustainability and multifunctionality requires reliable and user-friendly tools to address several objectives simultaneously. In this work we present FlorNExT Pro^®, a multiple-criteria landscape-scale forest planning and management computer tool, and apply it in a region in the north of Portugal to find optimized management solutions according to objectives such as maximization of net present value (NPV), volume growth, and carbon storage, and minimization of losses due to fire. Comparisons made among single- and multi-objective solutions were made to explore the range of possible indicators provided by the tool such as carbon sequestered, volume growth, probability of fire occurrence, volume of wood extracted, and evenness of harvesting in the management period. Results show that FlorNExT Pro^® is a reliable, flexible, and useful tool to incorporate multiple criteria and objectives into spatially explicit complex management problems and to prepare sustainable and multifunctional forest management plans at the landscape level. FlorNExT Pro^® is also suited to guiding and adapting forest management for uncertainty scenarios for the assessment of ecosystem services and fire risk, therefore playing an important role in the maintenance of sustainable landscapes in the south of Europe. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Social-Ecological Systems, Climate and Global Change Impacts)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

17 pages, 1607 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperPerspective

New Breeding Techniques for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mitigation: Plants May Express Nitrous Oxide Reductase

by Jordan J. Demone^1,†, Shen Wan^1,†, Maryam Nourimand¹, Asbjörn Erik Hansen¹, Qing-yao Shu²

and Illimar Altosaar^1,*

¹ Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada

² National Key Laboratory of Rice Biology, Institute of Crop Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

^† These authors contributed equally to this work.

Climate 2018, 6(4), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040080 - 27 Sep 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 6884

Abstract

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Although it comprises only 0.03% of total GHGs produced, N₂O makes a marked contribution to global warming. Much of the N₂O in the atmosphere issues from incomplete bacterial [...] Read more.

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Although it comprises only 0.03% of total GHGs produced, N₂O makes a marked contribution to global warming. Much of the N₂O in the atmosphere issues from incomplete bacterial denitrification processes acting on high levels of nitrogen (N) in the soil due to fertilizer usage. Using less fertilizer is the obvious solution for denitrification mitigation, but there is a significant drawback (especially where not enough N is available for the crop via N deposition, irrigation water, mineral soil N, or mineralization of organic matter): some crops require high-N fertilizer to produce the yields necessary to help feed the world’s increasing population. Alternatives for denitrification have considerable caveats. The long-standing promise of genetic modification for N fixation may be expanded now to enhance dissimilatory denitrification via genetic engineering. Biotechnology may solve what is thought to be a pivotal environmental challenge of the 21st century, reducing GHGs. Current approaches towards N₂O mitigation are examined here, revealing an innovative solution for producing staple crops that can ‘crack’ N₂O. The transfer of the bacterial nitrous oxide reductase gene (nosZ) into plants may herald the development of plants that express the nitrous oxide reductase enzyme (N₂OR). This tactic would parallel the precedents of using the molecular toolkit innately offered by the soil microflora to reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

16 pages, 1936 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Proposal to Evaluate Drought Characteristics Using Multiple Climate Models for Multiple Timescales

by Nguyen Tien Thanh

Department of Hydro-meteorological Modeling and Forecasting, Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Vietnam

Climate 2018, 6(4), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040079 - 26 Sep 2018

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5636

Abstract

This study presents a method to investigate meteorological drought characteristics using multiple climate models for multiple timescales under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, during 2021–2050. The methods of delta change factor, unequal weights, standardized precipitation index, Mann–Kendall and Sen’s [...] Read more.

This study presents a method to investigate meteorological drought characteristics using multiple climate models for multiple timescales under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, during 2021–2050. The methods of delta change factor, unequal weights, standardized precipitation index, Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope are proposed and applied with the main purpose of reducing uncertainty in climate projections and detection of the projection trends in meteorological drought. Climate simulations of three regional climate models driven by four global climate models are used to estimate weights for each run on the basic of rank sum. The reliability is then assessed by comparing a weighted ensemble climate output with observations during 1989–2008. Timescales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are considered to calculate the standardized precipitation index, taking the Vu Gia-Thu Bon (VG-TB) as a pilot basin. The results show efficient precipitation simulations using unequal weights. In the same timescales, the occurrence of moderately wet events is smaller than that of moderately dry events under the RCP4.5 scenario during 2021–2050. Events classified as “extremely wet”, “extremely dry”, “very wet” and “severely dry” are expected to rarely occur under the RCP8.5 scenario. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

14 pages, 1947 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century

by Behnam Mirgol¹ and Meisam Nazari^2,3,*

¹ Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, 3414896818 Qazvin, Iran

² Department of Crop Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany

³ Department of Soil Science, University of Kassel, Nordbahnhofstr. 1a, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany

Climate 2018, 6(4), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040078 - 23 Sep 2018

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 4977

Abstract

The climate of the Earth is changing. The Earth’s temperature is projected to maintain its upward trend in the next few decades. Temperature and precipitation are two very important factors affecting crop yields, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. There is a need [...] Read more.

The climate of the Earth is changing. The Earth’s temperature is projected to maintain its upward trend in the next few decades. Temperature and precipitation are two very important factors affecting crop yields, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. There is a need for future climate predictions to protect vulnerable sectors like agriculture in drylands. In this study, the downscaling of two important climatic variables—temperature and precipitation—was done by the CanESM2 and HadCM3 models under five different scenarios for the semi-arid province of Qazvin, located in Iran. The most efficient scenario was selected to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the three periods: 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The results showed that the models are able to satisfactorily predict the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation for the three mentioned periods. Generally, the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation tended to decrease in these periods when compared to the current reference values. However, the scenarios rcp2.6 and B2, respectively, predicted that the precipitation will fall less or even increase in the period 2070–2099. The scenario rcp2.6 seemed to be the most efficient to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the next few decades. The grain yield is projected to drop considerably over the three periods, especially in the last period, mainly due to the reduction in precipitation in March. This leads us to devise some adaptive strategies to prevent the detrimental impacts of climate change on the dryland winter wheat yield of the province. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

Climate, Volume 6, Issue 4 (December 2018) – 23 articles

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI