Table of Contents
Climate, Volume 7, Issue 1 (January 2019)
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Cover Story (view full-size image) The extent and intensity of drought have important impacts on natural and human systems in [...] Read more. The extent and intensity of drought have important impacts on natural and human systems in water-dependent regions. Long-term (1801–2014) annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data indicate that the recent occurrence of dry years in California is not unprecedented. The variability associated with large-scale ocean and atmospheric patterns (like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation) is mirrored in the drought persistence cycles observed in the PDSI time series. The 40-year (2015–2054) yearly forecast (ensemble modelling with exponential smoothing) indicates a weak intensification of drought in the near future, followed by a stable period. California might have reached its equilibrium at the end of a long-memory process, which is an exception in Southwestern U.S. View this paper.