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Climate 2018, 6(4), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040078

Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century

1
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, 3414896818 Qazvin, Iran
2
Department of Crop Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 5, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
3
Department of Soil Science, University of Kassel, Nordbahnhofstr. 1a, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 31 August 2018 / Revised: 19 September 2018 / Accepted: 21 September 2018 / Published: 23 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)
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Abstract

The climate of the Earth is changing. The Earth’s temperature is projected to maintain its upward trend in the next few decades. Temperature and precipitation are two very important factors affecting crop yields, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. There is a need for future climate predictions to protect vulnerable sectors like agriculture in drylands. In this study, the downscaling of two important climatic variables—temperature and precipitation—was done by the CanESM2 and HadCM3 models under five different scenarios for the semi-arid province of Qazvin, located in Iran. The most efficient scenario was selected to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the three periods: 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The results showed that the models are able to satisfactorily predict the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation for the three mentioned periods. Generally, the daily mean temperature and annual precipitation tended to decrease in these periods when compared to the current reference values. However, the scenarios rcp2.6 and B2, respectively, predicted that the precipitation will fall less or even increase in the period 2070–2099. The scenario rcp2.6 seemed to be the most efficient to predict the dryland winter wheat yield of the province for the next few decades. The grain yield is projected to drop considerably over the three periods, especially in the last period, mainly due to the reduction in precipitation in March. This leads us to devise some adaptive strategies to prevent the detrimental impacts of climate change on the dryland winter wheat yield of the province. View Full-Text
Keywords: CanESM2; HadCM3; precipitation; temperature; winter wheat yield CanESM2; HadCM3; precipitation; temperature; winter wheat yield
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Mirgol, B.; Nazari, M. Possible Scenarios of Winter Wheat Yield Reduction of Dryland Qazvin Province, Iran, Based on Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation Till the End of the Century. Climate 2018, 6, 78.

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